消费寒冬下的餐饮业：食客的"真心话"，行业的"冷思考" 灯光昏黄的餐厅大厅，陈琳独自站立，目光越过空旷的座位，投向窗外川流不息的街景。五年前，这里门庭若市，如今，即使是周末，也鲜少有座。一份外 卖优惠券，满减再免配送费，比堂食来得更划算。白领小王一边刷着手机，一边盘算着：外出用餐的费用，足够他在家做上两天的饭。 这并非个例。2025年上半年，北京住宿和餐饮业利润同比锐减67%，其中酒店业利润更是暴跌92.9%，平均每家酒店半年仅盈利三万余元，这笔钱甚至可能 难以支付一个月的租金。曾经人声鼎沸的餐馆，如今也面临严峻的生存考验。究竟是什么让人们不再愿意"下馆子"？那些老顾客们句句扎心的话语，道出了 当下消费市场的真实变迁。 一、价格攀升，钱包"跟不上" "现在去餐馆吃饭，总觉得味道不如从前。"做了十年美食博主的陈佳感叹，与厨师朋友交流后才得知，许多餐厅都在偷偷降低原材料成本。餐饮业面临巨大 的成本压力，2025年上半年，北京餐饮业营业成本高达360.19亿元，同比虽下降1.2%，但降幅远小于收入下降幅度。商家陷入两难：客流减少，但房租、工 资、水电等固定成本却无法削减。为了吸引顾客，许多商家不得不降价促销，陷入恶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The incident at Ulanhad Volcano Scenic Area reflects a growing discontent among young travelers towards "photo-centric travel," indicating a shift in travel preferences and values [3][6][12]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On August 19, a 68-year-old cleaner was assaulted by tourists after he advised them against littering smoke sticks used for photography [4]. - The incident sparked public outrage, leading to calls for strict punishment of the assailants [5]. - The scenic area, known for its Mars-like landscape, has become a hotspot for tourists seeking unique photo opportunities [9][10]. Group 2: Shift in Travel Trends - The rise of "photo-centric travel" emphasizes capturing beautiful images over genuine travel experiences, leading to a superficial approach to tourism [13][15]. - Social media platforms, particularly Xiaohongshu, have fueled this trend by promoting specific photo spots, often at the expense of authentic travel experiences [17][18]. - The phenomenon has resulted in the emergence of numerous "internet celebrity" scenic spots, which prioritize aesthetics over visitor experience [19][20]. Group 3: Decline of Photo-Centric Travel - The decline of photo-centric travel began several years ago, marked by significant events such as the Xiaohongshu filter controversy, which revealed the deceptive nature of curated photo spots [27]. - In 2024, many scenic areas began banning commercial photography, responding to backlash from regular tourists who felt marginalized [29][30]. - This shift has led to a growing critique among young travelers regarding the purpose of travel, questioning whether it should be solely about taking photos [32]. Group 4: Emerging Travel Preferences - An increasing number of young travelers are prioritizing genuine experiences over merely capturing images, seeking meaningful interactions during their trips [33]. - There is a rising nostalgia for platforms that focus on detailed travel narratives rather than just photo opportunities, indicating a desire for richer travel content [34]. - Travelers are not opposed to taking photos but reject the notion of traveling solely for the sake of photography [35]. Group 5: Future Implications - The incident at Ulanhad Volcano Scenic Area serves as a significant marker of changing attitudes towards travel among young people [38]. - The evolution of travel consumption in China is moving towards a more sustainable and considerate approach, aligning with broader societal shifts towards altruism and environmental consciousness [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The incident at the Ulanhad Volcano Scenic Area reflects a growing discontent among young travelers towards "photo-centric travel," leading to a shift in travel preferences towards more meaningful experiences [5][50]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On August 19, a 68-year-old cleaner was assaulted by multiple tourists after he advised them against littering smoke sticks used for photography [3][4]. - The incident sparked widespread condemnation of the tourists involved, with local authorities promising to punish the assailants [4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Ulanhad Volcano Scenic Area - The Ulanhad Volcano Scenic Area is known for its unique volcanic landscape, resembling the surface of Mars, attracting many visitors for photography [9]. - Tourists often use astronaut costumes and smoke sticks to enhance their "Mars walking" experience, which has led to environmental concerns due to littering [10][11]. Group 3: Shift in Travel Trends - There is a noticeable decline in the popularity of "photo-centric travel," where the primary goal is to capture beautiful images for social media [17][50]. - Young travelers are increasingly critical of the negative impacts of this trend, questioning the true purpose of travel and the environmental consequences of their actions [42][50]. Group 4: Social Media Influence - Social media platforms like Xiaohongshu have played a significant role in promoting "photo-centric travel," leading to the rise of numerous popular scenic spots [25][26]. - However, incidents like the Ulanhad event have prompted discussions about the authenticity of travel experiences and the need for a more meaningful approach [36][41]. Group 5: Future of Travel Preferences - The incident signifies a potential turning point in travel consumption patterns, with a shift towards more sustainable and meaningful travel experiences [51]. - Young travelers are increasingly seeking travel experiences that prioritize environmental consciousness and personal significance over mere photo opportunities [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of consumer society in Japan, as analyzed by sociologist Minoru Miura in "The Fourth Consumption Era," highlighting the shift from material wealth to social connections and meaningful consumption [2][10]. Group 1: Four Stages of Consumer Society - The development of Japan's modern consumer society is divided into four stages: 1. First Consumption Era (1912-1941): Characterized by industrialization and consumption limited to the wealthy, focusing on Western lifestyle and goods [4]. 2. Second Consumption Era (1945-1974): Post-war economic growth led to mass consumption, with a focus on essential appliances known as the "three sacred treasures" (TV, washing machine, refrigerator) [4][7]. 3. Third Consumption Era (1975-2004): Transition from quantity to quality in consumption, with an awakening of brand consciousness and a shift towards personalized and differentiated needs [4][7]. 4. Fourth Consumption Era (2005-2034): Emphasis on social connections and meaningful living, moving from materialism to a focus on sustainability and human relationships [5][7]. Group 2: Transition from High Consumption Society to Fourth Consumption Era - The transition from the third to the fourth consumption society is marked by five key characteristics: 1. Shift from individualism to social consciousness, moving from self-interest to altruism [11]. 2. Transition from private ownership to a sharing mindset [11]. 3. Change from brand obsession to a preference for simplicity and leisure [11]. 4. Movement from a focus on Western ideals to a greater appreciation for local and national identity [11]. 5. Realization of the shift from material goods to service-oriented consumption, emphasizing human connections [11]. Group 3: Changing Perspectives on Consumption - As society matures, the demand for material goods diminishes while the desire for fulfilling interpersonal relationships increases, indicating a shift in how consumption is perceived [13]. - Consumption is viewed as a means to enrich life experiences rather than merely a transactional activity, emphasizing the importance of time and relationships over material accumulation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the ice cream brand Zhong Xue Gao, once hailed as the "Hermès of ice cream," highlighting its bankruptcy review announcement and the factors contributing to its struggles in the changing consumer market [2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhong Xue Gao was founded in 2018, strategically positioning itself in the price range of 10 to 30 yuan, avoiding direct competition with traditional brands while leveraging the appeal of domestic products [18][19]. - The brand initially thrived during the golden era of new consumption, achieving rapid growth and attracting significant investment, with a valuation nearing 4 billion yuan [21][22]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - In 2022, two major events destabilized Zhong Xue Gao: the challenge of high pricing strategies and a public relations crisis stemming from a viral video questioning the safety of its products [23][24]. - The brand's annual growth rate plummeted from over 100% to 50% in 2022 due to the negative impact of these events on consumer trust [25]. Group 3: Attempts at Recovery - In response to its struggles, Zhong Xue Gao launched sub-brands like "Li Da Ju" and "Sa'Saa" to diversify its offerings and target different price segments, but faced stiff competition from established brands [11][15]. - The company also ventured into live-streaming e-commerce as a means to generate revenue and repay debts, with founder Lin Sheng actively participating in sales efforts [12][14]. Group 4: Market Trends - The article notes a significant shift in the Chinese consumer market, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive and less willing to pay a premium for brand stories, leading to a decline in demand for high-priced ice cream [30][31]. - The current ice cream market is characterized by a focus on affordable products, smaller sizes, and health-conscious options, with traditional brands adapting to these trends [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between Japan's economic stagnation over the past three decades and China's current economic challenges, suggesting that China can learn valuable lessons from Japan's experience [4][5][6]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Japan's economic stagnation has led to a shift in consumer attitudes, moving towards minimalism and low-desire consumption, which aligns with global trends of resource scarcity [5][6]. - The four stages of Japanese consumption identified by Miura Nobuyuki include homogenized consumption, differentiated consumption, rational minimalism, and spiritual consumption, indicating a transition towards valuing experiences over brand prestige [7][8]. - The emergence of the "one-person economy" reflects changing social dynamics and consumer preferences, emphasizing individual fulfillment and lifestyle choices [9]. Group 2: Aging Population and Wealth Distribution - Japan's aging population holds a significant portion of national wealth, with over 50% of national assets owned by individuals aged 60 and above, mirroring trends in China [15][17]. - The increasing percentage of elderly individuals in China, projected to reach 30% by 2035, raises questions about how to cater to this affluent and leisure-seeking demographic [18][19]. - The concept of "M-shaped society" describes the polarization of the middle class in Japan, a trend that is also observable in China, where a significant portion of the population is classified as low-income [20][22]. Group 3: Tourism and Leisure Industry - Japan's tourism sector has thrived during economic downturns, driven by a national strategy that recognizes the value of tourism for economic growth and national branding [26][33]. - Various successful tourism models in Japan include theme parks, leisure resorts, and cultural tourism, which have adapted to consumer preferences for unique experiences [27][29][30]. - The integration of traditional culture and modern tourism practices has created a vibrant tourism industry, with events and festivals attracting both domestic and international visitors [31][32]. Group 4: Future Consumption Trends - The article suggests that China is transitioning between the second and third consumption eras, with early signs of the fourth consumption era emerging, characterized by a focus on experience and personal satisfaction [11][12]. - The changing economic landscape necessitates a shift from rapid profit-driven models to those that prioritize creativity, emotional connection, and consumer-centric values [38][40]. - The upcoming seminar on Japanese consumption strategies aims to provide insights into adapting these lessons for the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of understanding evolving consumer needs [41][42].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on June 20, with sectors such as film, national trends, automotive, cultural tourism, and medical beauty experiencing gains. The Hong Kong Consumer Index constituents saw significant increases, with China Ruyi up over 4%, Li Ning and Zhongsheng Holdings up over 3%, and others like MGM China, Mixue Group, Bosideng, and Giant Bio up over 1% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) recorded an average daily trading volume exceeding 60 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating high market interest [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported steady growth in online consumption and a recovery in physical retail. From January to May, online retail sales increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3%, accounting for 24.5% of total social retail sales [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities highlighted the structural attractiveness of China's consumer sector in the current market environment. Traditional consumption upgrades continue, with smart home appliances reflecting consumer demand for high-quality living, while new consumption areas like health snacks and smart home products are emerging due to technological innovation [2] - Consumer behavior is increasingly emotional, with a tendency to use consumption for psychological compensation and emotional release, while also placing greater importance on local cultural identity and value resonance. This trend mirrors Japan's "fourth consumption era" that began in 2005, indicating a systemic shift in China's consumer market from "ownership" to "sharing" and "experiential" consumption [2]

Macro Economic Overview - The progress of the "old-for-new" subsidy program reached approximately 42% in May, indicating a significant impact on consumer spending [3][4] - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, driven by the "618" shopping festival and the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy [24][25] - Industrial production maintained a high growth rate of 5.8% year-on-year in May, although the supply-demand structure remains suboptimal [5] Industry Insights Chemical Industry - Polyester bottle chip factories have announced production cuts of about 20%, which may lead to a recovery in processing margins [18][19] - The average operating load of domestic polyester bottle chip facilities is expected to decline from 94.3% in May to around 77% due to these production adjustments [19][21] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in consumer demand, with retail sales growth in May exceeding expectations [24][25] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, while the snack sector shows strong growth potential due to channel innovation and product diversification [28] Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The European electric vehicle market is experiencing a recovery, with May sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 36.2% year-on-year [40][42] - The Chinese low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with significant government support and new projects being signed, indicating potential growth in this sector [30][33] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The USDA has raised global production estimates for corn, rice, and wheat, while maintaining soybean production forecasts, reflecting a positive outlook for agricultural commodities [35][36][37][38] Banking Sector - The banking sector is cautiously optimistic about retail risks, with the transition period for new regulations approaching, which may impact asset quality [46][47] - The overall non-performing loan ratio remains stable, but there are concerns about rising risks in small and micro enterprises and retail businesses [46][48]

Group 1 - The current Chinese consumer market is experiencing a transformation characterized by "pressure on total volume and structural differentiation," with traditional consumption upgrading and emerging sectors expanding rapidly [2][10] - The emotional characteristics of consumers are becoming more pronounced, with a tendency to seek psychological compensation and cultural resonance through consumption [2][10] - The transformation path of Chinese consumption is highly similar to Japan's "fourth consumption era," which began around 2005, driven by economic, demographic, and psychological factors [2][10] Group 2 - Japan's "fourth consumption era" is marked by a shift from ownership to shared and experiential consumption, emphasizing individual value realization and social connections [3][11] - The transition in Japan is driven by three structural variables: long-term economic stagnation, demographic changes, and shifts in consumer psychology [19][22] - The consumption focus in Japan has shifted from material goods to services and experiences, leading to a restructuring of the industrial landscape [28][30] Group 3 - The concept of Delta G (marginal change in profit growth) is proposed as a key indicator for identifying structural opportunities in the consumer sector [4][44] - The report identifies three investment themes based on Delta G: sectors with improving economic forecasts, those with significant upward revisions in profit predictions, and those with relatively small downward adjustments [4][44] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include personal care products, food processing, and internet e-commerce, among others [4][44][50] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of cultural identity and local values in shaping consumer behavior, suggesting that brands should leverage local cultural narratives to enhance differentiation [43][40] - The rise of the "silver economy" and "single economy" in Japan provides insights for China to develop related industries, such as elder care services and single-person living solutions [39][40] - Sustainable consumption is becoming a strategic necessity for long-term business success, with companies encouraged to integrate environmental considerations throughout the product lifecycle [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - Loneliness is predicted to become the biggest economic trend in China over the next five years, with emerging products like AI companionship and AI pets addressing this need [3]. Group 1: Fourth Consumption Era - The concept of the "Fourth Consumption Era" refers to the rise of the single economy, characterized by individual consumption patterns such as solo dining, solo travel, and pet ownership [6][11]. - The shift in consumer values has moved from a focus on luxury and fashion to a desire for inner satisfaction, emotional experiences, and connections with local traditions [7][9]. Group 2: Changes in Consumer Behavior - The Chinese consumer market is experiencing a transformation towards rational consumption and value-for-money pursuits, with a growing trend of consumers prioritizing cost-effectiveness over brand prestige [9]. - There is an increasing emphasis on emotional fulfillment and experiential consumption, with markets for travel and cultural entertainment expanding as consumers seek personal growth and emotional experiences [9]. Group 3: Emergence of the Loneliness Economy - The "Fifth Consumption Era" is anticipated to evolve into the "Loneliness Economy," driven by rising single rates, population decline, and aging demographics, which are critical trends for entrepreneurs to consider [11]. - The early development of one-person economy products in China mirrors trends seen in Japan, indicating a significant market opportunity [11]. Group 4: Learning from Japan - The article suggests that there are lessons to be learned from Japan's existing consumption industries, which could be adapted to the Chinese market [12]. - A seminar featuring industry leaders will explore the localization of Japanese consumption strategies to the Chinese context, focusing on efficiency, demand reconstruction, and capital breakthroughs [13].