以下文章来源于劲旅网 ，作者陈杰tigereat 劲旅网 . 劲旅网-文旅新经济增量价值发现平台。我们以理性、严谨、客观、专业、务实的视角，为中国文旅业 界和关注文旅产业的金融界、科技界、产业界、学界等领域的精英们，实时输出有深度、有态度、高品 质的原创内容，以及产业社群服务。 本文来自微信公众号： 劲旅网 （ID：ctcnn1） ，编辑：壮壮，作者：陈杰tigereat，原文标题： 《乌兰哈达火山景区打人事件背后，出片式旅行愈发遭到年轻人唾弃》，题图来自：AI生成 这几天，内蒙古乌兰哈达火山景区打人事件引爆舆论。 事情的经过并不复杂。 8月19日，该景区68岁保洁员因为劝说游客不要将用于拍摄道具的烟雾棒随意丢弃，遭到多名游客围 殴。 事件被曝光后，舆论纷纷谴责动手的游客，当地执法部门也及时表态要严惩行凶者。 然而劲旅君却从整个事件中，看到一些大众旅行不一样的变化。 01 乌兰哈达火山景区打人事件中，大家忽略了一个小细节。 其实游客随地遗弃的绝非普通垃圾，而是一种烟雾棒。 你可能好奇，游客在景区拿着这玩意干啥？ 这就要说到该景区的特别之处了。 乌兰哈达火山景区，是一家以火山为特色的观光景区。由于火山喷发后形成 ...

来源 | 整理自《第四消费时代》 预计阅读时间：8分钟 当下消费市场正经历深刻的变化。新消费赛道快速崛起，以情绪价值、悦己需求等为核心驱动力的消费新形态，成为当 下消费群体追求的热潮。 社会消费将如何演绎？日本社会学者三浦展在《第四消费时代》中深刻剖析了日本消费社会的演进轨迹，从通过消费建 立一个富裕的家庭的时代 ( 第二消费社会及以前 ) ，发展到通过消费来丰富个人生活、发挥个性的时代 ( 第三消费社会 ) ，再到以消费为手段来建立和他人的联系、追求充实人生的时代（第四消费时代）。这一理论框架不仅是对日本社会 的精准观察，也为我们了解当下消费的发展和趋势提供了宝贵的视角。 01 消费社会的四个阶段 消费是社会变迁的镜子，它深刻反映着人口结构、经济发展阶段、社会价值观、技术变革乃至重大社会事件的影响。三浦展以 日本社会为研究对象，将日本现代消费社会的发展划分为四个阶段： • 第一消费时代（ 1912-1941 年） ：这一时期日本正处于工业化初期，消费主要集中在少数富裕阶层，具有明显的阶级象 征意义，大众消费尚未普及。这个时期的消费模式追求西方化的生活方式和商品（如西服、咖啡、汽车）。 • 第二消费时代（ 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the ice cream brand Zhong Xue Gao, once hailed as the "Hermès of ice cream," highlighting its bankruptcy review announcement and the factors contributing to its struggles in the changing consumer market [2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhong Xue Gao was founded in 2018, strategically positioning itself in the price range of 10 to 30 yuan, avoiding direct competition with traditional brands while leveraging the appeal of domestic products [18][19]. - The brand initially thrived during the golden era of new consumption, achieving rapid growth and attracting significant investment, with a valuation nearing 4 billion yuan [21][22]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - In 2022, two major events destabilized Zhong Xue Gao: the challenge of high pricing strategies and a public relations crisis stemming from a viral video questioning the safety of its products [23][24]. - The brand's annual growth rate plummeted from over 100% to 50% in 2022 due to the negative impact of these events on consumer trust [25]. Group 3: Attempts at Recovery - In response to its struggles, Zhong Xue Gao launched sub-brands like "Li Da Ju" and "Sa'Saa" to diversify its offerings and target different price segments, but faced stiff competition from established brands [11][15]. - The company also ventured into live-streaming e-commerce as a means to generate revenue and repay debts, with founder Lin Sheng actively participating in sales efforts [12][14]. Group 4: Market Trends - The article notes a significant shift in the Chinese consumer market, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive and less willing to pay a premium for brand stories, leading to a decline in demand for high-priced ice cream [30][31]. - The current ice cream market is characterized by a focus on affordable products, smaller sizes, and health-conscious options, with traditional brands adapting to these trends [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between Japan's economic stagnation over the past three decades and China's current economic challenges, suggesting that China can learn valuable lessons from Japan's experience [4][5][6]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Japan's economic stagnation has led to a shift in consumer attitudes, moving towards minimalism and low-desire consumption, which aligns with global trends of resource scarcity [5][6]. - The four stages of Japanese consumption identified by Miura Nobuyuki include homogenized consumption, differentiated consumption, rational minimalism, and spiritual consumption, indicating a transition towards valuing experiences over brand prestige [7][8]. - The emergence of the "one-person economy" reflects changing social dynamics and consumer preferences, emphasizing individual fulfillment and lifestyle choices [9]. Group 2: Aging Population and Wealth Distribution - Japan's aging population holds a significant portion of national wealth, with over 50% of national assets owned by individuals aged 60 and above, mirroring trends in China [15][17]. - The increasing percentage of elderly individuals in China, projected to reach 30% by 2035, raises questions about how to cater to this affluent and leisure-seeking demographic [18][19]. - The concept of "M-shaped society" describes the polarization of the middle class in Japan, a trend that is also observable in China, where a significant portion of the population is classified as low-income [20][22]. Group 3: Tourism and Leisure Industry - Japan's tourism sector has thrived during economic downturns, driven by a national strategy that recognizes the value of tourism for economic growth and national branding [26][33]. - Various successful tourism models in Japan include theme parks, leisure resorts, and cultural tourism, which have adapted to consumer preferences for unique experiences [27][29][30]. - The integration of traditional culture and modern tourism practices has created a vibrant tourism industry, with events and festivals attracting both domestic and international visitors [31][32]. Group 4: Future Consumption Trends - The article suggests that China is transitioning between the second and third consumption eras, with early signs of the fourth consumption era emerging, characterized by a focus on experience and personal satisfaction [11][12]. - The changing economic landscape necessitates a shift from rapid profit-driven models to those that prioritize creativity, emotional connection, and consumer-centric values [38][40]. - The upcoming seminar on Japanese consumption strategies aims to provide insights into adapting these lessons for the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of understanding evolving consumer needs [41][42].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on June 20, with sectors such as film, national trends, automotive, cultural tourism, and medical beauty experiencing gains. The Hong Kong Consumer Index constituents saw significant increases, with China Ruyi up over 4%, Li Ning and Zhongsheng Holdings up over 3%, and others like MGM China, Mixue Group, Bosideng, and Giant Bio up over 1% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) recorded an average daily trading volume exceeding 60 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating high market interest [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported steady growth in online consumption and a recovery in physical retail. From January to May, online retail sales increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3%, accounting for 24.5% of total social retail sales [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities highlighted the structural attractiveness of China's consumer sector in the current market environment. Traditional consumption upgrades continue, with smart home appliances reflecting consumer demand for high-quality living, while new consumption areas like health snacks and smart home products are emerging due to technological innovation [2] - Consumer behavior is increasingly emotional, with a tendency to use consumption for psychological compensation and emotional release, while also placing greater importance on local cultural identity and value resonance. This trend mirrors Japan's "fourth consumption era" that began in 2005, indicating a systemic shift in China's consumer market from "ownership" to "sharing" and "experiential" consumption [2]

Macro Economic Overview - The progress of the "old-for-new" subsidy program reached approximately 42% in May, indicating a significant impact on consumer spending [3][4] - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, driven by the "618" shopping festival and the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy [24][25] - Industrial production maintained a high growth rate of 5.8% year-on-year in May, although the supply-demand structure remains suboptimal [5] Industry Insights Chemical Industry - Polyester bottle chip factories have announced production cuts of about 20%, which may lead to a recovery in processing margins [18][19] - The average operating load of domestic polyester bottle chip facilities is expected to decline from 94.3% in May to around 77% due to these production adjustments [19][21] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in consumer demand, with retail sales growth in May exceeding expectations [24][25] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, while the snack sector shows strong growth potential due to channel innovation and product diversification [28] Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The European electric vehicle market is experiencing a recovery, with May sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 36.2% year-on-year [40][42] - The Chinese low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with significant government support and new projects being signed, indicating potential growth in this sector [30][33] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The USDA has raised global production estimates for corn, rice, and wheat, while maintaining soybean production forecasts, reflecting a positive outlook for agricultural commodities [35][36][37][38] Banking Sector - The banking sector is cautiously optimistic about retail risks, with the transition period for new regulations approaching, which may impact asset quality [46][47] - The overall non-performing loan ratio remains stable, but there are concerns about rising risks in small and micro enterprises and retail businesses [46][48]

Group 1 - The current Chinese consumer market is experiencing a transformation characterized by "pressure on total volume and structural differentiation," with traditional consumption upgrading and emerging sectors expanding rapidly [2][10] - The emotional characteristics of consumers are becoming more pronounced, with a tendency to seek psychological compensation and cultural resonance through consumption [2][10] - The transformation path of Chinese consumption is highly similar to Japan's "fourth consumption era," which began around 2005, driven by economic, demographic, and psychological factors [2][10] Group 2 - Japan's "fourth consumption era" is marked by a shift from ownership to shared and experiential consumption, emphasizing individual value realization and social connections [3][11] - The transition in Japan is driven by three structural variables: long-term economic stagnation, demographic changes, and shifts in consumer psychology [19][22] - The consumption focus in Japan has shifted from material goods to services and experiences, leading to a restructuring of the industrial landscape [28][30] Group 3 - The concept of Delta G (marginal change in profit growth) is proposed as a key indicator for identifying structural opportunities in the consumer sector [4][44] - The report identifies three investment themes based on Delta G: sectors with improving economic forecasts, those with significant upward revisions in profit predictions, and those with relatively small downward adjustments [4][44] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include personal care products, food processing, and internet e-commerce, among others [4][44][50] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of cultural identity and local values in shaping consumer behavior, suggesting that brands should leverage local cultural narratives to enhance differentiation [43][40] - The rise of the "silver economy" and "single economy" in Japan provides insights for China to develop related industries, such as elder care services and single-person living solutions [39][40] - Sustainable consumption is becoming a strategic necessity for long-term business success, with companies encouraged to integrate environmental considerations throughout the product lifecycle [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - Loneliness is predicted to become the biggest economic trend in China over the next five years, with emerging products like AI companionship and AI pets addressing this need [3]. Group 1: Fourth Consumption Era - The concept of the "Fourth Consumption Era" refers to the rise of the single economy, characterized by individual consumption patterns such as solo dining, solo travel, and pet ownership [6][11]. - The shift in consumer values has moved from a focus on luxury and fashion to a desire for inner satisfaction, emotional experiences, and connections with local traditions [7][9]. Group 2: Changes in Consumer Behavior - The Chinese consumer market is experiencing a transformation towards rational consumption and value-for-money pursuits, with a growing trend of consumers prioritizing cost-effectiveness over brand prestige [9]. - There is an increasing emphasis on emotional fulfillment and experiential consumption, with markets for travel and cultural entertainment expanding as consumers seek personal growth and emotional experiences [9]. Group 3: Emergence of the Loneliness Economy - The "Fifth Consumption Era" is anticipated to evolve into the "Loneliness Economy," driven by rising single rates, population decline, and aging demographics, which are critical trends for entrepreneurs to consider [11]. - The early development of one-person economy products in China mirrors trends seen in Japan, indicating a significant market opportunity [11]. Group 4: Learning from Japan - The article suggests that there are lessons to be learned from Japan's existing consumption industries, which could be adapted to the Chinese market [12]. - A seminar featuring industry leaders will explore the localization of Japanese consumption strategies to the Chinese context, focusing on efficiency, demand reconstruction, and capital breakthroughs [13].

Core Insights - The single economy, characterized by strong autonomy in consumption decisions, high quality demands, and significant emotional value, is emerging as a new consumer force in China, with over 230 million single individuals, of which more than 40% are "self-pleasing" consumers [1][5][18] - This economic trend reflects profound social structural changes and holds immense potential and possibilities for future growth [3][18] Industry Overview - The single economy has given rise to a multi-trillion market ecosystem, encompassing various sectors that cater to the "one-person demand" [5][10] - Key industries include convenience services such as mini home appliances, 24-hour convenience stores, and food delivery services, which meet the needs of single individuals for a "small yet exquisite" lifestyle [5][6] - The pet economy is thriving, providing emotional companionship through pet food, medical care, and supplies, while virtual social platforms like gaming and live streaming serve as important outlets for emotional connection [6][8] Consumer Trends - Individualized consumption is on the rise, with single-person restaurants and customized travel experiences catering to the unique preferences of single consumers [8][12] - The self-improvement sector is booming, with vocational education and health management services helping single individuals enhance their professional competitiveness and maintain well-being [8][12] Market Dynamics - The single economy's industry layout shows a multidimensional integration, with upstream material and technology support, midstream product and service provision, and downstream consumer market engagement [10][12] - Instant consumption scenarios, such as convenience stores and food delivery, are frequently utilized by over 60% of single individuals to meet daily needs [10][12] Future Outlook - The next five years will see a complex landscape for the single economy, characterized by consumer segmentation, upgrades, and inherent risks [12][15] - High-end markets will focus on luxury and customized services, while lower-tier markets will expand affordable essential products [12][15] - Technological advancements will continue to enhance service efficiency, with AI and blockchain playing significant roles in consumer trust and platform reliability [12][15] Societal Implications - The development of the single economy requires collaboration among policies, enterprises, and society to create a supportive ecosystem [16][18] - Policies should focus on protecting the rights of single individuals, while businesses need to adopt differentiated strategies and explore cross-industry collaborations [16][18] - Social initiatives should foster single-friendly communities, providing psychological support and promoting inclusivity [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - Traditional consumption habits are undergoing profound changes, with consumers becoming increasingly sensitive to brand premiums and seeking value-driven alternatives [4][7]. Group 1: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumers are moving away from blind brand loyalty and are more focused on practical value, user experience, and long-term satisfaction [11][12]. - The rise of "平替" (affordable alternatives) reflects a shift towards sourcing products directly from manufacturers, bypassing traditional retail markups [5][6]. - The complexity of the external environment, including economic pressures and tariff fluctuations, has led to increased consumer anxiety regarding pricing and a growing interest in domestic brands [7][8]. Group 2: Collective Wisdom in Consumption - A new initiative called "百万之选 BEST100" aims to gather consumer insights to identify the most trusted products through collective contributions [18][28]. - This initiative emphasizes a decentralized and transparent approach to discovering quality products, moving away from traditional marketing-driven recommendations [15][19]. - The project will culminate in two lists: a main list of 100 trusted products and a personalized list based on diverse consumer needs and scenarios [28][29]. Group 3: Engagement and Interaction - The initiative encourages active participation from consumers, allowing them to share their experiences and recommendations, thus creating a living database of trusted products [20][27]. - The platform is designed to break through algorithmic filters, providing a broader range of consumer experiences and insights [19][24]. - The collaborative effort aims to foster a community-driven approach to smart consumption, where every contribution adds value to the collective knowledge [27][32].