Core Insights - The spot gold price has surpassed $4,400 per ounce for the first time in 2025, with a cumulative increase of nearly 68%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 17% rise during the same period, solidifying gold's status as a top-performing asset in 2025 [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The underlying logic for the rise in gold prices is attributed to a potential crisis in the credibility of the US dollar, which is seen as a driving force for increased gold allocations by central banks, institutions, and individual investors [2] - Key factors affecting gold prices include US monetary policy represented by real interest rates, international geopolitical conflicts, market dynamics of supply and demand, and other special factors [2] Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - Institutional investors maintain an optimistic outlook for 2026, with predictions influenced by central bank gold purchases and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Various macroeconomic scenarios predict gold price fluctuations ranging from a 5% decline to a 30% increase, depending on economic conditions [3][5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The trend of central banks purchasing gold has continued into 2025, with an expected total purchase volume of 750 to 900 tons for the year, indicating a broadening participation beyond developing countries [6][7] - Despite high gold prices potentially reducing the quantity of gold purchased, the total monetary investment by central banks remains substantial, reinforcing gold's recognition as a reserve asset [7] Group 4: Market Observations - In the Chinese market, there is a stark contrast in consumer behavior, with a surge in physical gold investment demand while gold jewelry consumption is under pressure due to high prices and tax policy changes [8] - Retail investment demand for gold in China has surpassed jewelry demand for the first time since the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [8] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to view gold as a strategic asset rather than a speculative tool, suggesting a long-term allocation of 5% to 15% of investable assets to gold [9] - New investors are encouraged to adopt a gradual investment approach rather than waiting for ideal price points, emphasizing the importance of safety in gold investments [9]

Market Overview - On December 23, the market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the three major indices briefly turning negative. The ChiNext Index saw an intraday increase of over 1% [2] - By the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.41% [2] - In the ETF sector, the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) closed up by 1.41% [2] Gold Market Insights - On December 23, spot gold prices historically surpassed the 1,000 yuan mark, opening at $4,444.98 per ounce, equivalent to 1,004.8 yuan per gram, and closing at $4,486.49 per ounce, or 1,013.7 yuan per gram [2] - The overall increase in gold prices for the year is nearly 70%, marking the second-highest annual gain since the 1979 oil crisis and the period of high inflation in the U.S. [2] - The Hong Kong government is actively working to establish the region as an international center for gold trading, storage, clearing, and risk management, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange having set up its first offshore warehouse in Hong Kong [2] Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the recent weak employment data supports the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts, which, along with expectations of liquidity easing, are boosting precious metal prices. Long-term factors such as the weakening of the dollar's credibility and central bank gold purchases remain supportive of gold's upward trend [2] - Huachuang Securities noted that while U.S. inflation data was better than expected, the reliability of new inflation and employment data may be limited due to the recent government shutdown. The labor market is showing signs of cooling, but demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to persist amid global economic uncertainties [3] - Huaxi Securities highlighted that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and plans to purchase short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are contributing to a continued loose macroeconomic environment. The accelerating trend of "de-dollarization" globally is driving central banks and investors to continue purchasing gold, benefiting from concerns over debt and currency [3]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has reached multiple new highs in 2025, but over a 10-year comparison, it has underperformed against gold, U.S. stocks, and several traditional assets [1][6] - The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market reflects a shift as Bitcoin is no longer seen as the default "annual best solution," transitioning from a high-growth asset to a risk asset subject to strict pricing [2][6] - The cryptocurrency industry faces a critical question for 2025: whether it is enduring a painful transition or bidding farewell to the era where mere participation guaranteed returns [2][6] Performance Summary - In 2025, Bitcoin's performance is projected to decline by 6%, while gold is expected to rise by 66.83% and U.S. stocks by 21.51% [4][8] - In 2024, Bitcoin is forecasted to increase by 135%, outperforming gold (27.1%) and U.S. stocks (33%) [4][8] - In 2023, Bitcoin's growth was 160%, while U.S. stocks grew by 43.4% and gold by 12.9% [4][8] - Historical performance shows Bitcoin's significant volatility, with a peak increase of 1340% in 2017 and a decline of 64% in 2022 [4][8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

Core Viewpoint - The gold prices have surged to historic highs, with COMEX gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and spot gold exceeding $4485 per ounce, marking annual increases of over 71% and 70% respectively [1][12]. Price Movements - As of December 23, 2025, COMEX gold reached $4519.2 per ounce, reflecting a 1.11% increase on that day and a 71.23% increase year-to-date [2][13]. - Spot platinum and palladium also saw significant increases, with platinum at $2211.3 per ounce (up 5.83% for the day) and palladium at $1807.00 per ounce (up 1.85% for the day) [2][13]. - Domestic gold prices have crossed the 1000 RMB per gram mark, with prices reported at 1009 RMB per gram, corresponding to an international price of $4479 per ounce [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization [9][20]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net addition of 1045 tons in 2024, which is 21% of the global gold production for that year [10][21]. Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced fee adjustments for trading in 2026, including reduced fees for various contracts, aiming to manage the market's volatility [17]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has also set limits on the maximum number of contracts for silver futures trading, effective December 24, 2025 [19]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may stabilize between $4500 and $5000 per ounce, with extreme scenarios potentially exceeding $5200 per ounce [11][22]. - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold holdings is expected to remain a significant factor influencing the gold market in 2026 [21].

人民财讯12月23日电，恒生指数开盘涨0.29%，恒生科技指数涨0.14%。快手跌超3%，药明康德、紫金 矿业等涨超1%。 来源：证券时报e公司 ...

截至12月23日11点，Wind资讯数据显示，COMEX黄金升破4500美元/盎司，现货黄金上探4490美元/盎司，均创历史新高。 同时，国内黄金饰品价格也水涨船高。其中，周生生、老庙黄金金饰克价均站上1400元大关，较前一日分别上涨36元、35元。 | 12.23 | 毛圭眞 | 1401元/克 | 涨35 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12.23 | 潮宏基 | 1403元/克 | 涨35 | | 12.23 | 老凤祥 | 1399元/克 | 涨34 | | 12.23 | 老庙黄金 | 1402元/克 | 涨35 | | 12.23 | 菜百首饰 | 1342元/克 | 涨22 | | 12.23 | 周六福 | 1389元/克 | 涨70 | | 12.23 | 周大生 | 1403元/克 | 涨35 | | 而 | R | | = | | 实时金价 | 品牌金价 | 黄金批发 | 关于我们 | 截至12月23日11点，贵金属概念表现活跃，成分股浩通科技、山东黄金均涨超7%，紫金矿业、赤峰黄金、山金国际、晓程科技等个股跟涨。 彭博社文章分析认为，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市 ...

Group 1 - Global market liquidity is tightening as the Christmas holiday approaches, with year-end trading characteristics becoming more pronounced [1] - There is no clear dominance of risk aversion or risk appetite in the market, with funds being allocated across different assets [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties and market pricing of the Federal Reserve's mid-term easing path continue to support gold prices, which are reaching historical highs [1][2] Group 2 - Gold has maintained its role as a core macro hedge asset, with spot gold prices remaining in a historical high range and an annual increase of 70%, marking one of the strongest yearly performances in decades [2] - JPMorgan maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing tariff uncertainties, central bank purchases, and synchronized demand from ETFs and physical markets as core factors supporting the gold bull market [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed resilience, with financial and materials sectors leading the gains, indicating a reallocation towards real economy-related assets in a rate-cut environment [2] Group 3 - Recent inflation data has not provided clear guidance for the market, with missing key inflation data due to government shutdown affecting the CPI report's reference value [3] - Market expectations for further rate cuts are present, but pricing of policy paths has slowed down significantly [3] - Geopolitical risks are increasingly influencing market sentiment, with a cautious stance from Federal Reserve officials regarding the economic outlook [3] Group 4 - Traders are increasing bullish bets on U.S. Treasuries, particularly focusing on the 10-year Treasury yield falling to around 4% [4] - Large asset management institutions are adopting a defensive approach, increasing cash holdings and reducing leverage, indicating heightened caution towards high valuations and geopolitical risks [4] - The current market is characterized by a combination of year-end risk appetite, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical factors, with the stock market maintaining a recovery pattern despite declining liquidity [4]

编辑丨谢珍 记者丨叶映橙,见习记者林健民 12月23日，现货黄金再度大幅攀升，触及4497.75美元/盎司，创下历史新高。 受国际市场提振，国内金饰价格异动频频。其中，周生生、老庙黄金金饰克价均站上1400元大关，较前一日分别上涨36元、35 元。 | | 品牌金价 | | (0) . @ . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌黄金价格 | | | 最新:2025.12.23 09:14 | | 日期 | 名称 | 价格 | 涨跌 | | 12.23 | 水贝金价 | 1167 元/克 | 实时 | | 12.23 | 周大福 | 1368元/克 | :3432 | | 12.23 | 周生生 | 1403元/克 | 涨36 | | 12.22 | 六福珠宝 | 1366元/克 | 持平 | | 12.22 | 我走草 | 1366元/克 | 持平 | | 12.22 | 潮宏基 | 1368元/克 | 持平 | | 12.23 | 老凤祥 | 1399元/克 | 涨34 | | 12.23 | 老庙黄金 | 1402元/克 | 涨35 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock index opened higher but showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.18% at 25,848.99 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.42% at 5,503.87 points, the National Enterprises Index up 0.11% at 8,949.28 points, and the Red Chip Index up 0.39% at 4,091.24 points [1] - Major tech stocks exhibited varied movements, with Alibaba up 0.68%, Tencent down 1.46%, JD.com up 0.98%, Xiaomi down 1.66%, NetEase up 0.19%, Meituan up 0.39%, Kuaishou down 3.6%, and Bilibili up 0.41% [1] - Wind power stocks led the gains, with Dongfang Electric rising over 5%, while gold stocks continued their upward trend, with Shandong Gold also up over 5% [1] - The lithium battery sector saw significant increases, with Ganfeng Lithium up over 4%, and building materials and cement stocks remained active, with Dongwu Cement reaching a historical high [1] - Mobile game stocks, Apple concept stocks, and new energy vehicle companies mostly declined [1] - Newly listed company Relax Health saw a first-day increase of over 145%, while Nobi Kan surged 338.75% in half a day [1] Corporate News - Vanke Enterprises (02202.HK) extended the grace period for the principal and interest payment of its fourth phase of medium-term notes (total principal of 2 billion yuan) to 30 trading days [2] - Cathay Pacific (00293.HK) reported 2.5304 million passengers in November, a year-on-year increase of 26% [3] - Shanhigh New Energy (01250.HK) signed an EPC contract with China Railway 17th Bureau for a total price of 405.5 million yuan [3] - China General Nuclear Power (01816.HK) announced that the commissioning of Units 1 and 2 in Huizhou has been adjusted to the first half and second half of 2026, respectively [3] - Lehua Entertainment (02306.HK) entered into a business cooperation framework agreement with Youku Information Technology [4] - Xinyang Global Holdings (00723.HK) signed a cooperation agreement with Guangxi Fenglin (601996.SH) to jointly develop the EU wood board and related product market [4] - Tabo (06110.HK) reported a high single-digit year-on-year decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale business in Q3 of the 2025/26 fiscal year [4] - Dipo Technology (01384.HK) entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Muxi Co., aiming to deepen their strategic partnership in enterprise-level large model AI applications [4] - He Yu-B (02256.HK) received approval from China's NMPA for its CSF-1R inhibitor Beijiemai® [5] - Saint Noble Pharmaceuticals-B (02257.HK) completed Phase I trials for its experimental drug STP707 and formally submitted a clinical research report to the FDA [6] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610.HK) increased its annual production capacity for alumina to 4 million tons [7] - Rungo Interactive (02422.HK) plans to sell 75% of its stake in Xi'an Tiantai Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. for 11.3 million yuan [8] - China Tianhua Chemical (00362.HK) received guidance from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for resuming trading, but remains suspended [9] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the market is still in a left-side layout phase, with the right-side turning point not yet clear. There is strong consensus on an early spring rally, but year-end supply and demand pressures create uncertainty for a "Santa rally." The first quarter may present a higher probability phase for investment [10] - CITIC Securities observed that after a unilateral rise in September, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced fluctuations since October due to repeated overseas macro expectations. Quality assets in the Hong Kong market have re-entered a high cost-performance zone, and with continued northbound capital inflow and improved profit expectations, the market is entering a significant year-end trading window [10] - China Galaxy suggested focusing on the technology sector as a long-term investment theme, which is expected to rebound after previous adjustments. The consumer sector is anticipated to receive substantial policy support, with current valuations at relatively low levels, indicating significant long-term upside potential [11]