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供应较稳,企业库存下降
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 12:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The profit of float glass enterprises has slightly increased, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. With the glass from the previously ignited production lines expected to be available this week and no clear plans for new production line ignition or shutdown, the supply side may continue to increase slightly. - The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. However, driven by improved market sentiment, spot-futures traders and distributors in the North China market are more active in purchasing, and downstream industries are replenishing their stocks due to rigid demand. As a result, most factories have significantly reduced their inventories. - The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1250 yuan. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy of selling high and buying low and pay attention to setting stop - losses. [2][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has risen, with an average price of 1190 yuan/ton, a increase of 13.88 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. - In the North China market, the upward trend is obvious. Driven by market sentiment, the purchasing enthusiasm of spot - futures traders and distributors is high, and downstream industries are replenishing their stocks due to rigid demand. Most factories have significantly reduced their inventories, and prices have been raised multiple times. - In the East China market, the negotiation focus has increased. Boosted by macro - sentiment and continuous price increases in the peripheral market, the prices of most enterprises in the East China region have risen. Processors have replenished their stocks moderately, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. [8] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply Analysis - As of July 24, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.14%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month. With the glass from the previously ignited production lines expected to be available and no clear plans for new production line ignition or shutdown, the supply side may continue to increase slightly. - As of July 24, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 168.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.54 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 128.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.10 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 53.42 yuan/ton, an increase of 58.18 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.2 Demand Analysis - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month and 7.0% year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that their orders basically remained at the previous level, with no signs of improvement in demand. Currently, the profit level is still low, and a few enterprises reported a continued decline in orders. - The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to June 2025, the cumulative completed area of real estate was 22566.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points year - on - year and an increase of 3.9 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the automobile production in June was 2.799 million vehicles, and the sales volume was 2.904 million vehicles. [13] 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million heavy boxes compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.74%. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days compared to the previous period. - Driven by market sentiment, the purchasing enthusiasm of spot - futures traders and distributors in the North China region has increased, and downstream industries are replenishing their stocks due to rigid demand. Most factories have significantly reduced their inventories, leading to a larger decline in regional inventory. In the East China market, the overall sales have improved, and the inventory has continued to decrease month - on - month. With the continuous increase in peripheral prices and the narrowing of regional price differences, most enterprises in the East China region have adjusted their prices, which has accelerated the sales speed. At the same time, due to the relatively appropriate prices of over - aged and qualified products of some enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui, processors have replenished their stocks moderately, and enterprises have significantly reduced their inventories. [16] 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of July 25, the long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market were 773,747, an increase of 28,882; the short positions were 950,052, an increase of 14,998. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish. [19] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The profit of float glass enterprises has slightly increased, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. With the glass from the previously ignited production lines expected to be available this week and no clear plans for new production line ignition or shutdown, the supply side may continue to increase slightly. - The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. Driven by market sentiment, spot - futures traders and distributors in the North China market are more active in purchasing, and downstream industries are replenishing their stocks due to rigid demand. Most factories have significantly reduced their inventories. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in the start - up of float glass production lines. - The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1250 yuan. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy of selling high and buying low and pay attention to setting stop - losses. [21]
德力股份:拟1.35亿元出售全资子公司德瑞矿业100%股权
news flash· 2025-07-28 12:28
德力股份(002571)公告,公司拟以1.35亿元的交易价格将其持有的凤阳德瑞矿业有限公司100%股权 转让给凤阳县矿投投资控股有限公司。本次交易完成后,公司不再持有德瑞矿业股权,德瑞矿业不再纳 入公司合并报表范围。本次交易有利于公司进一步优化资源配置,优化资产和业务结构,补充现金流, 符合公司的经营发展规划和战略布局,有利于公司未来长远可持续发展。本次交易预计产生约650万的 亏损。本次交易有利于补充主营业务现金流,对公司的财务状况及经营不会造成重大不利影响,实际影 响公司损益金额须以会计师事务所出具的审计报告为准。 ...
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 09:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will continue to decline, and prices will remain under pressure. It's recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract [2] - The probability of a correction in the glass market has increased. Although the fundamentals of glass have improved, the terminal demand has not improved. It's advisable to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1316 yuan/ton, down 124 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1223 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders was -290077, an increase of 8272; the net position of the top 20 glass traders was -176305, an increase of 8320 [2] - The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was -76 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the glass 9 - 1 contract spread was -64 yuan, an increase of 31 yuan [2] - The soda ash basis was -50 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan; the glass basis was -150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash was 1390 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash was 1325 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] - The price of East China light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan; the price of Central China light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] - The price of Shahe glass sheets was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets was 1230 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 75%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points [2] - The in - production capacity of glass was 15.89 million tons/year, an increase of 0.11 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines was 223, unchanged [2] - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 178.36 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises was 6189.6 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 304.3 million heavy boxes [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new construction area in the real estate industry was 30364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7180.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of completed area was 22566.61 million square meters, an increase of 4181.47 million square meters [2] Industry News - The State Council deployed measures to gradually implement free preschool education [2] - The CSRC aimed to consolidate the market's stable and positive trend and improve the market - stabilizing mechanism [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures [2] - The CSRC solicited public opinions on the revised "Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies" [2] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 34365.0 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the stamp duty revenue was 1953 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%; the securities trading stamp duty was 785 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 54.1% [2]
近期监管趋严,短期波动加大
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 06:38
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, regulatory tightening has increased market volatility. The glass market showed a strong overall trend this month, with significant rebounds driven by raw material support and policy stimuli, but ended the month with a sharp decline due to exchange supervision following rapid short - term price increases [1][5]. - The supply side in July changed little from the previous month, with supply fluctuating in a low - level range in the first half of the year. Although industrial profits have slightly recovered and industry expectations have improved due to policy stimuli, the industry's exit trend may slow down temporarily [46]. - The demand side in the real estate front - end shows no obvious signs of improvement. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year. Attention should be paid to post - rainy - season restocking demand [46]. - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. - The glass main contract may start the position - shifting phase next month, and attention should be paid to the corresponding inter - month spread fluctuations. In terms of strategies, recent regulatory tightening may intensify the volatility of near - month contracts on a single - side basis. In terms of arbitrage, the spread between soda ash and glass may continue to narrow in the medium - to - long - term [47]. Summary by Directory Glass Market Review - This month, the glass market showed a strong overall trend. Driven by raw material support and continuous policy stimuli, glass prices rebounded significantly. However, at the end of the month, rapid short - term price increases led to exchange supervision and a sharp decline [5]. Valuation - Basis - The average spot price in July was 1,103 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to 1,063 yuan/ton in June. The price fluctuated upward. The average price of the futures 09 contract in July was 1,108 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton compared to 994 yuan/ton in June. The basis narrowed slightly, and market sentiment cooled slightly at the end of the month [10]. Valuation - Arbitrage - The average spread between the main soda ash and glass contracts weakened compared to the previous month, and there is still downward pressure in the later period. The 9 - 1 spread of glass slightly narrowed, and the sentiment for far - month contracts increased significantly. The overall C - structure was maintained [15]. Valuation - Profit - The average production profit of each production line fluctuated at a low level, and the industry's pressure continued. Coal - based production may gradually become the cost reference, but short - term industry profits slightly recovered. In the medium - term, the exit trend may still continue [20]. Drivers - Capacity and Operation - Overall, capacity and operation remained stable at a low level [21]. Drivers - Real Estate Front - end - The real estate front - end demand has not improved significantly. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year [46]. Drivers - Real Estate Back - end There is no specific summarized information provided in the text. Drivers - Automobile - There are data on monthly and cumulative year - on - year changes in automobile production and sales, but no specific analysis is provided in the text. Drivers - Inventory - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. Drivers - Apparent Consumption (Estimated) There is no information provided about the drivers - apparent consumption (estimated). Viewpoints and Strategies - The supply side in July changed little from the previous month, with supply fluctuating in a low - level range in the first half of the year. Although industrial profits have slightly recovered and industry expectations have improved due to policy stimuli, the industry's exit trend may slow down temporarily [46]. - The demand side in the real estate front - end shows no obvious signs of improvement. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year. Attention should be paid to post - rainy - season restocking demand [46]. - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. - The glass main contract may start the position - shifting phase next month, and attention should be paid to the corresponding inter - month spread fluctuations. In terms of strategies, recent regulatory tightening may intensify the volatility of near - month contracts on a single - side basis. In terms of arbitrage, the spread between soda ash and glass may continue to narrow in the medium - to - long - term [47].
玻璃:政策预期热度降温,价格波动放大,纯碱:交易所发布风险函,警惕价格回调
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:17
【产业库存】本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6189.6万重箱,环比下降304.3万重箱或4.69%,同比减少7.74%,连 降5周创今年2月份以来新低,折库存天数26.6天,较上期下降1.3天,尤其库存前期累积明显的华中地区,降幅最为 明显,进一步提振市场情绪。 【成本利润】成本方面,石油焦制、煤炭制、天然气制玻璃成本分别为1052、1008、1438元/吨,环比变化分别为-1 、+4、-4元/吨;生产利润分别为53.4、128.9、-168.4元/吨,环比变化分别为+58.18、+7.4、+10.54元/吨。 玻璃:政策预期热度降温,价格波动放大 纯碱:交易所发布风险函,警惕价格回调 分析师:何慧 咨询账号:Z0011420 中辉期货研究院 2025.07.25 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 F03104066 李 倩 F03134406 玻璃:政策预期热度降温,价格波动放大 【供应端】本周浮法玻璃行业开工率为75%,周环比下降0.34个百分点;产能利用率为79.48%,周环比增加0.57%, 日产量为15.9万吨,周环比小幅增加0.73%;周产量110.81万 ...
大越期货玻璃周报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:04
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证号:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.7.21-7.25 上周玻璃期货大幅上涨,主力合约FG2509收盘较前一周上涨25.99%报1362元/吨。 现货方面,河北沙河白玻大板报价1212元/吨,较前一周上涨11.40%。 供给方面,玻璃现货价格跟涨,行业利润修复,行业冷修速度放缓,上周全国浮法 玻璃生产线在产222条,开工率75.10%,日熔量15.90万吨,供给历史低位企稳; "反内 卷"政策持续发酵,产能有出清预期。需求方面,受宏观情绪带动以及部分企业提涨刺 激,小部分中下游刚需性补货备货,厂库明显去化,截止7月24日,全国浮法玻璃企业 库存6189.60万重量箱,较前一周减少4.69%,库存持续数周去化。综合来看, "反内卷" 政策持续发力,但玻璃基本面依旧疲 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250728
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 00:02
| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/28 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/25 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/24 | | | | | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/24 | | 2025/7/25 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1250.0 | 1301.0 | 141.0 | 51.0 | FG09合约 | 1081.0 | 1307.0 | 1362.0 | 281.0 | 55.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1164.0 | 1258.0 | 1297.0 | 133.0 | 39.0 | FG01合约 | 1165.0 | 1402.0 | 1426.0 | 261.0 | 24.0 | | 沙河5mm ...
南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报:预期与现实博弈,盘面或加剧波动-20250727
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 08:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution expectation may fluctuate between continuation and cooling, and market sentiment is also volatile. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate between reality and expectation. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and short - term sentiment changes. As August approaches, the 09 contract will follow the delivery logic [2]. - For glass, the supply end daily melting volume has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected situations. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by 8%, but it has improved month - on - month. The market is in a weak balance. The manufacturer's inventory has decreased, while the middle - stream inventory has increased rapidly, and the overall social inventory remains high [2]. - For soda ash, the overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance. The inventory is at a historical high, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of glass is 159,000 tons. The supply end has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected changes. From an environmental perspective, the daily melting volume of petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines accounts for 17% and 12% respectively; from the kiln age perspective, the daily melting volume of glass production lines in operation for more than 10 years accounts for about 15% [1]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory glass inventory is 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million heavy boxes compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days are 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days compared to the previous period. The middle - stream inventory in Shahe has increased rapidly, and under the positive feedback, the manufacturer's inventory has continuously decreased [1]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are - 168 yuan for natural gas, + 129 yuan for coal - gas, and + 53 yuan for petroleum coke [1]. - **Demand**: As of mid - July, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a decrease of 2.1% week - on - week and 7% year - on - year. The deep - processing enterprises' original glass inventory is 10.4 days, an increase of 13% week - on - week and year - on - year. The average production and sales rate in each region this week is 123, a significant increase compared to the previous week. The spot price in Hubei has continued to rise [1]. Soda Ash Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week, including a decrease of 0.58 tons in heavy soda ash and 0.36 tons in light soda ash). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The impact of short - term output fluctuations is weakening. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance [4]. - **Inventory**: The soda ash factory inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to the previous week (a decrease of 40,800 tons in light soda ash and 200 tons in heavy soda ash). The delivery warehouse inventory is 305,000 tons (an increase of 58,400 tons). The total inventory of the factory and the delivery warehouse is 2.1696 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory is still accumulating at a high level [4]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash produced by the combined soda process is + 18 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - soda process is - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The current daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 87,700 tons and continues to decline slowly. The inventory of photovoltaic finished products has started to decrease, and its sustainability needs to be observed. The float glass end remains stable overall [4]. Glass Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on glass futures' main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity [7][8]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the price of Shahe delivery products, the market price of 5mm float glass in different regions, regional price differences, and size - plate price differences [10][18]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on glass futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [20][25]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the production, loss, start - up rate, and production line start - up number of float glass [33][35]. - **Production and Sales**: Offers seasonal data on the glass production - sales rate in different regions [39]. - **Deep - Processing**: Provides seasonal data on the original glass inventory days, order days, and their ratios and differences in glass deep - processing enterprises [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of float glass using different processes [50]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the import and export volume of float glass [53]. - **Statistics Bureau Data**: Provides seasonal data on the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [56]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the inventory of float glass manufacturers, average available inventory days, and inventory in different regions and in Shahe [60][62]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of float glass, with and without imports and exports [73]. Soda Ash Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on the main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of soda ash futures [78]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price differences between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [82][92]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on soda ash futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [96][100]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the weekly and monthly production, heavy - quality rate, capacity utilization rate, and production of heavy and light soda ash in different regions [104][124]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of light soda ash using different processes [126]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the monthly import, export, and net export volume of soda ash [135]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the factory inventory, average available inventory days, delivery warehouse inventory, and inventory in different regions of soda ash [138]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash, with and without imports and exports, as well as the raw material inventory days of glass factories and the pending order days of soda ash enterprises [144][151]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Provides seasonal data on the daily melting volume, loss volume, and inventory of photovoltaic glass, as well as the combined daily melting volume and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass [155][158].
国泰君安期货能源化工:玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250727
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 07:59
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass market is expected to experience a phased decline. Despite short - term factors boosting the market, weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory will lead to a market downturn, though the downside space at low levels is limited [2]. - The soda ash market is also likely to have a phased decline. The futures market's previous short - squeeze and subsequent short - covering rally may not be sustainable. High production, high inventory, and large delivery pressure on certain contracts will exert downward pressure on the market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - As of July 24, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% from July 17. The daily loss of float glass was 41,050 tons, down 2.73% month - on - month [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. There are also potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. Potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [8][9][10]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises nationwide was 9.3 days, down 2.1% month - on - month and 7.0% year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders remained at the previous level, with no signs of improvement, and a few reported a further decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases (4.69%) month - on - month and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, 1.3 days less than the previous period. Markets in North China, East China, Central China, and South China all saw significant inventory declines [2]. Price and Profit - This week, most glass prices rose. In Hubei and Shahe, prices increased by 40 yuan/ton. The prices in Shahe were around 1,240 - 1,290 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei area around 1,160 - 1,260 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas around 1,160 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from petroleum coke was about 53 yuan/ton, and the profit from natural gas and coal fuel was about - 168 - 128 yuan/ton [19][21][27]. Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recently, glass sales have been good, and the market inventory has declined significantly. The de - stocking speed is comparable to that from September to October 2024, and the current futures increase is also similar. However, terminal orders have not improved significantly [33][34]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - This week, the overall trading in the domestic photovoltaic glass market improved, and the inventory decreased slowly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged from last week [42][44]. Capacity and Inventory - Under the influence of the anti - involution policy, recent supply has decreased, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. As of the end of July, the actual capacity was about 90,500 tons/day, with 414 production lines in operation. The sample inventory days were about 32.59 days, down 9.08% month - on - month [46][47][51]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The start - up of soda ash production changed little, and the potential maintenance volume was currently small. The capacity utilization rate was 83%, down from 84.1% last week. The weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 408,900 tons [54][56][57]. Inventory - The inventory was about 1.865 million tons. Light soda ash inventory was 74,200 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.123 million tons. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The spot market price increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton due to the hot futures - related spot procurement. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was 17 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 35 yuan/ton [64][68][74]. Basis and Spread - High production and high inventory put pressure on near - term contracts. The basis was weak, and the spread faced significant pressure. The futures market rebounded following the glass market, causing the basis to weaken continuously [70][73].
玻璃:多地价格上涨 库存环比去库3.2%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-26 14:15
本文由 AI 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 【玻璃市场价格变动及走势分析】隆众统计显示,玻璃现货价格有变动,沙河大板市场价涨34元至1198 元/吨,湖北大板市场价涨40元至1110元/吨,广东大板市场价持平为1310元/吨,浙江大板市场价涨10元 至1260元/吨。 周末国内浮法玻璃市场多地价格上涨,中下游提货情绪提升,今日涨势放缓,仅局部零 星上调。近日华北受期货带动,期现商提货多,沙河及石家庄区域价格普涨20 - 40元/吨,小板部分厚 度涨幅明显,京津唐部分厂上调1 - 2元/重量箱。 华东今日价格多数维稳,周末个别厂小涨,实际成交 小上调,今日多观望。华中受期货提涨,部分中间商提货增加,浮法出货好,多数厂上调1 - 2元/重量 箱,少部分厂稳价。 华南主流价稳定,周末局部受台风影响,产销弱,提货放缓,浮法白玻供应预期 增加。西南周末部分价格上调1 - 2元/重量箱,今日暂稳。 今日玻璃延续涨势,宏观对标16年供给侧改 革,政策预期增强。供应端稳定,行业亏损难大规模冷修,湖北和沙河企业冷修意愿不强。 利润方 面,现货涨价使各生产方式利润小幅修复。库存上,中下游补库意愿增强,环比去库3 ...