Industry Overview - The Chinese optical communication industry is experiencing historic development opportunities driven by artificial intelligence, computing power networks, and the digital economy [1] - The market size of China's optical communication is expected to exceed 175 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 12%, accounting for over 50% of the global market share [1] Company Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang is projected to achieve a revenue of 23.861 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 122.63%, and a net profit of 5.171 billion yuan, up 137.9% [1] - Tianfu Communication is expected to realize a net profit of 1.256 billion to 1.401 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth of 72% to 92% [1] - Xinyi Sheng is forecasted to achieve a net profit of 2.830 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 311% [1] - Guangku Technology anticipates a net profit of 66.983 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.32% [2] Technological Advancements - The optical communication industry has entered a technology iteration cycle centered on computing power demand, with 800G/1.6T optical modules and CPO technology expected to reshape the competitive landscape [2] - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and OIO (Optical Interconnect) technologies are projected to open new market opportunities, with the CPO market potentially reaching 19.2 billion USD and the OIO market potentially reaching 69.1 billion USD under neutral assumptions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates significant growth in net profit and revenue for Q1 2025, driven by increased demand for high-end optical modules due to robust capital expenditure from end customers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4-1.7 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.71%-68.44% [1]. - The forecasted net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be 1.39-1.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.37%-70.67% [1]. - The optical module business is expected to achieve a consolidated net profit of approximately 1.6-1.9 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.39%-72.65% before accounting for stock incentive expenses [2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Product Development - The surge in computing power demand is driving a significant increase in sales of optical modules, particularly 800G and 400G products, which are essential for building AI data centers [1]. - The company anticipates continued expansion in demand for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T optical modules over the next few years, with 1.6T product shipments expected to increase starting from Q2 2025 [1]. - The company is advancing its technology development towards 1.6T and 3.2T optical modules, while also conducting pre-research on CPO and 3.2T pluggable optical modules to meet customer needs [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has established production capabilities in Thailand for optical modules, enhancing its overseas market presence and reducing tariff burdens [2]. - A stock incentive plan was announced in March 2025, reflecting the company's confidence in its growth trajectory and setting performance targets for 2025 to 2028 [2]. - The company maintains a leading position in the optical communication and module industry, with expectations of stable performance growth driven by increasing downstream market demand [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 5.174 billion, 9.046 billion, and 11.241 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are forecasted to be 4.68, 8.19, and 10.18 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 10, and 8 times [3]. - Given the competitive advantages of the company as a leader in the optical module sector, rapid growth in future earnings is anticipated, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry, specifically recommending the computing power sector and military communication [4][9]. Core Viewpoints - The release of tariff exemptions is expected to alleviate concerns in the optical communication sector, leading to a potential valuation recovery for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, which have international production capabilities [2][21]. - Domestic demand for computing power continues to grow, driven by significant investments from major internet companies and telecom operators, indicating a sustained narrative for AI growth [3][22]. - Military communication companies are anticipated to benefit from geopolitical tensions and increased defense budgets, with firms like Jiexun Feihong and China Satcom positioned to gain [23]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Focus on the computing power and military communication sectors, recommending companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and military firms like Jiexun Feihong and China Satcom [4][12]. Market Review - The communication sector experienced a decline, with the operator index performing relatively better compared to other segments [16][19]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced tariff exemptions for specific communication electronic products, which is expected to positively impact the optical communication industry [20][21]. Computing Power Demand - Major companies like Alibaba and ByteDance are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, indicating a robust growth trajectory for domestic computing power demand [3][22]. Key Companies - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and military communication firms such as Jiexun Feihong and China Satcom, among others [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry, specifically recommending the computing power sector and military communication [4][9]. Core Insights - The release of tariff exemptions is expected to alleviate concerns in the optical communication sector, leading to a potential recovery in valuations. Companies with overseas production capabilities will have a tax rate advantage, while those with international layouts will be less impacted by tariff uncertainties [2][21]. - Domestic demand for computing power continues to grow, driven by significant investments from major internet companies and telecom operators. The AI narrative remains strong, indicating explosive growth in computing power demand [3][22]. - Military communication companies are anticipated to benefit from geopolitical tensions and increased defense budgets, as national security strategies drive demand [23]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Focus on the computing power and military communication sectors, recommending companies such as Jiaxun Feihong, China Communication Construction, China Satellite, and Haige Communication, along with optical module leaders like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [4][12]. Market Review - The communication sector experienced a decline, with the operator index performing relatively better compared to other segments. The overall market sentiment improved following government announcements of stock buybacks and support measures [16][19]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Key companies recommended include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), Xinyi Sheng (300502.SZ), Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), and others in the computing power and optical communication sectors. The report suggests monitoring companies like Weiteng Electric, which have seen significant price drops but possess growth potential [4][9][12]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure, with major players like Alibaba and ByteDance planning substantial expenditures over the next few years. The anticipated growth in AI and computing power is expected to drive the market forward [3][22][39].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of AI infrastructure in the U.S. is at a critical scale-driven phase, requiring hundreds of billions in capital investment, but the "Liberation Day" tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration in 2025 casts a shadow over this progress, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching as high as 145% [2][3]. Macro-Level Analysis - Rising capital costs and tightening financial conditions, including a surge in 10-year interest rates, may lead to a slowdown in AI infrastructure development, necessitating immediate government action to reach agreements with trade partners [5]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs against large U.S. tech companies exists, but significant short-term impacts on major U.S. enterprises are unlikely due to a service trade surplus driven by tech giants [6]. Tariff Policy Details - The "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by Trump on April 2, 2025, include a 10% base tariff on all goods entering the U.S., with additional tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% on specific countries, particularly targeting China with an initial 34% tariff that escalated to 145% [7][9]. - The overall tariff on Chinese goods will reach 145%, building on a previously implemented 20% tariff [9][10]. Impact on Semiconductor and AI Hardware - GPU servers are largely exempt from tariffs, while the cost of semiconductor manufacturing equipment is expected to rise by 15%, and optical module prices may increase by 25-40% [8][10]. - The U.S. semiconductor industry faces significant challenges due to the new tariffs, which could weaken its competitive position in chip manufacturing [79][86]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Mexico is emerging as a new manufacturing hub under the USMCA framework, providing a buffer for the AI hardware supply chain, with overall data center operational costs expected to increase only slightly by 2% [2][8]. - The current tariff structure allows U.S. companies to import certain goods, including GPUs, from Mexico and Canada at 0% tariffs, creating a significant advantage for U.S. firms [21][22]. Data Center Construction Costs - Data center construction costs are anticipated to rise, but the industry is likely to absorb these impacts, with the total cost of ownership (TCO) for GPU clusters expected to increase by only 2% even if colocation costs rise by 15% [46][50]. - The majority of data center material costs are derived from cooling and electrical equipment, which are heavily reliant on global trade [45][48]. Global Trade Reactions - China has responded to the U.S. tariffs with its own retaliatory measures, raising tariffs on U.S. imports to 84% and escalating tensions between the two nations [24][25]. - The EU has taken a cautious approach, prioritizing negotiations with the U.S. while preparing emergency plans to support affected industries [26]. Future Considerations - The Trump administration's tariff exemptions for certain semiconductor products may not last long, as new targeted tariffs on chips are being considered [23]. - The semiconductor industry is under pressure to adapt to the changing trade landscape, with potential new tariffs on imports looming [79][88].

中际旭创主营业务为高端光通信收发模块以及光器件的研发、生产及销售。对于一季度的业绩预增，中 际旭创方面介绍，报告期内，得益于终端客户对算力基础设施的持续建设、资本开支强劲增长带来 800G和400G高端光模块销售的大幅增加，产品结构持续优化，公司营业收入和净利润同比得到大幅提 升。 据了解，报告期内，该公司对限制性股票激励计划、员工持股计划等事项确认股权激励费用，导致归属 于上市公司股东的净利润减少约3700万元。但公司发生政府补助等非经常性损益事项，使得归属于上市 公司股东的净利润增加约1400万元，对报告期的业绩产生了一定的正向影响。 早在2月底，中际旭创就发布了2024年度业绩快报。公告显示，该公司2024年全年实现营收238.61亿 元，同比增长122.63%；实现归母净利润51.71亿元，同比增长137.90%；实现归母扣非净利润50.68亿 元，同比增长138.64%。 转自：经济导报 文|经济导报 杜海 4月9日晚间，A股光模块龙头中际旭创（300308.SZ）披露2025年第一季度业绩预告，预计当期实现归 母净利润14亿元至17亿元，同比增长38.71%至68.44%；扣非净利润13.90亿元 ...

中际旭创（300308）公告，2025年第一季度预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润14亿元-17亿元，同 比增长38.71%-68.44%。归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润预计为13.9亿元-16.9亿 元，同比增长40.37%-70.67%。报告期内，公司光模块业务合并净利润预计为16亿元-19亿元，同比增长 45.39%-72.65%。 ...

天孚通信：目前未发现因为关税政策导致客户需求的明显调整 智通财经4月8日电，天孚通信(300394.SZ)发布投资者关系活动记录表公告称，截至目前，公司订单业 务保持稳定，新产品持续上量，目前未发现因为关税政策导致客户需求的明显调整。公司泰国工厂一期 厂房在去年已经建成并投入生产，目前几个主要大客户的认证已经通过。预计近期将进一步增加产能。 二期厂房预计将于近日完成装修并投入使用，产线陆续开始设备安装和调试。公司参展OFC2025，重点 展示了面向共封装光学（CPO）和高速光模块应用的FAU（光纤阵列单元）、POSA（无源光子组件） 等产品及相关封装方案。这些产品作为光通信系统的核心部件，支持400G、800G和1.6T及以上的传输 速率，满足AI和数据中心等场景的大带宽需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhishang Technology is planning a significant asset restructuring by acquiring control of Shenzhen Hengyang Data Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, which is expected to enhance its position in the optical communication industry, deemed essential for AI development [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhishang Technology was established on December 8, 2009, and was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market on July 7, 2023. The company focuses on three main business areas: entertainment consumer electronics, optical communication, and precision manufacturing of automation equipment [10]. - The company aims to strengthen its research and production in the optical communication sector, with products including MPO connectors, multi-core MPO jumpers, single-core bundled fiber jumpers, and optical splitters [10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Zhishang Technology reported a revenue of 726 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 95.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 59.71 million yuan, showing a growth of 4.98% compared to the previous year [10][11]. - The optical fiber connector business has rapidly developed and become a significant growth driver for the company's performance [10]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - The acquisition of Hengyang Data is part of Zhishang Technology's strategy to deepen its involvement in the optical communication industry, which is considered a foundational element for AI and digital economy advancements [2][9]. - Hengyang Data specializes in intelligent computing and data processing, providing solutions for telecommunications operators, government security, and internet sectors, with partnerships including major telecom operators and companies like IBM and Intel [9]. Group 4: Transaction Details - Zhishang Technology has signed a memorandum of cooperation with the major shareholders of Hengyang Data, indicating that the final transaction price will be based on an asset evaluation report from a qualified institution [4][6]. - The company plans to suspend trading from April 8, 2024, for no more than 10 trading days, with a commitment to disclose relevant information and apply for stock resumption by April 22, 2024 [8].

根据市场公开信息及4月7日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募高毅资产近期对1家上市公司进行了调研，相关名单如下： 1）中际旭创 （上海高毅资产管理参与公司电话会议） 调研纪要：中际旭创在机构调研中表示，芯片来源多样化，EML光芯片预计从二季度起缓解；1.6T产品二季度出货量增加，下半年预计大量部 署；非美国地区出口比例增长，降低关税负担；税率分担策略仍在研究中；800G和400G需求量不错，维持此前需求指引；CPO技术尚需较长时间 成熟，公司正投入研发；预计2026年1.6T产品大规模部署，算力需求持续增加。 机构简介： 上海高毅资产管理合伙企业（有限合伙）是国内投研实力较强、管理规模较大、激励制度领先的平台型私募基金管理公司，专注于资本市场，致 力于为优秀的投资经理配备一流的研究支持、渠道资源、品牌背书、资本对接和运营维护，打造以人为本的企业文化和扁平化的组织架构，让优 秀的投资经理专注于投资，全力以赴地为投资者创造更佳的收益。高毅资产旗下汇聚了多位长期业绩优秀、市场经验丰富的明星投资经理。目前 投研团队超过30人，投资经理包括千亿级基金公司投资总监、股票型基金8年业绩冠军、偏股混合型基金6年业绩亚军、公募基金十 ...