"提振、细化、聚焦"——从中央经济工作会议及 11 月经 济指标明确消费主线 20251216 摘要 内需已成共识，各级政府通过细化政策提升获得感，财政与货币协同、 地方政府内卷及新增供给刺激是主要驱动力。关注政策对情绪和估值的 抬升，而非过度解读短期社零数据波动。 预计 2026、2027 年服务消费政策将迎来密集落地期，关注长假、春/ 秋假推广、带薪休假落实等细节性政策，为旅游等服务消费提供时间保 障，利好 OTA 公司及景区类公司。 看好职业教育机构受益于服务型消费政策，纺织服装行业冬装去库存预 期较好，关注家纺龙头企业及具有国际化多品牌发展的运动品牌，黄金 珠宝行业关注品牌差异化公司及困境反转潜力股。 零售业受益于内需主导政策和超长春节假期，CPI 向好将拉动超市板块 收益，关注重点区域零售公司。美护领域亦是促进内需的重要抓手，关 注已递交招股书的美妆企业。 家电行业经历补贴退坡后的脉冲式下滑后有望回稳，产品结构升级趋势 延续，长期进入后补贴时代，线下消费及服务消费补贴力度或加强，关 注白电龙头及新兴智能硬件领域。 Q&A 如何解读近期中央经济工作会议的精神及其对未来经济的影响？ 本次中央经济工作会议 ...

顺周期大涨：为什么？能追吗？买哪些？20251216 摘要 跨境资本回流是核心驱动力，预计 2024 年 9 月美联储首次降息后加速， 2025 年 9 月重启降息，推动国内 PPI 和 CPI 修复，利好顺周期行业盈 利和估值双升，或将驱动 2026 年 A 股市场走势。 人民币汇率升值预期增强，出口顺差扩张及美联储降息导致弱美元，均 支撑人民币升值。汇率升值超 200 个基点将吸引跨境资本加速回流，提 升国内资产吸引力。 制造业反内卷政策显效，资本开支收缩，自由现金流修复，叠加全球流 动性涌入安全资产，中国优势制造业因稳定现金流和人民币升值受益， 估值有望系统性重估。 消费行业受益于 PPI 与 CPI 修复预期及跨境资本回流带来的资金支持， 盈利能力有望提升，预计 2026 年制造与消费行业将在价格、盈利及估 值上实现显著修复。 AI 智能体作为新康波周期引擎，需与工业体系深度融合以实现利润回报。 全球流动性将持续涌向 AI 相关领域，并最终传导至具备优势的中国制造 业。 Q&A 顺周期板块近期逆势上涨的背后逻辑是什么？是否值得追逐这波投资机会？ 顺周期板块近期逆势上涨的背后逻辑主要是跨境资本回流带来的 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：据我所知格力貌似在做家用车空调，公司方便说说这 方面的进展吗？比如发展进度，是否有主流车企购买等？主要是想知道公司的新能源汽车空调是否供应 于家用车？ 格力电器（000651.SZ）12月16日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前已研发推出新能源客车空调、新能 源物流车空调、卡车驻车空调，以及新能源客车电池热管理系统等产品。公司目前已经就上述产品和部 分车企开展业务合作，但暂未涉及乘用车。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Economic Growth Overview - In November 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.4%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.6 percentage points[3] - The export delivery value showed a marginal recovery, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, improving by 2.0 percentage points from October[3] - The service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, a drop of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained expansion, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 0.1% and 1.9%, respectively[3] - Equipment purchase investment rose by 12.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[3] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[3]

Group 1: Aluminum vs. Copper in Air Conditioning - The shift from copper to aluminum in air conditioning systems is driven by the copper-aluminum price gap, energy efficiency standards upgrades, and refrigerant replacements, with microchannel technology becoming increasingly prevalent[3] - The competitive landscape for microchannel heat exchangers is dominated by three players: Sanhua, Mahler/Delphi, and Danfoss[3] - Sanhua's revenue growth has slowed, indicating a need for innovation and adaptation in the market[14] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion Developments - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to accelerate due to continuous technological breakthroughs and policy support, with significant project milestones achieved in 2025[19] - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately $479.5 billion by 2029, with a total of 196 fusion devices expected by 2035[40][42] - Key investment opportunities in nuclear fusion include core supporting entities and high-value segments within the supply chain, such as superconducting magnets and power systems[46] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing stable or potentially increasing core players due to cost reduction trends, with a focus on satellite manufacturing and launch services[3] - The domestic satellite constellation projects, such as G60 and GW, are set to significantly increase satellite launches, with G60 planning to deploy 1,296 satellites by the end of 2027 and 15,000 by 2030[60] - The market for satellite services and ground equipment is expected to dominate, accounting for over 90% of the commercial aerospace value chain[52]

12月17日，华西证券最新研报指出，当前A股市场正经历结构性切换，在科技板块轮动动能减弱背景 下，消费板块"高低切换"逻辑有望成为跨年行情核心主线。研报建议投资者重点关注三大方向：政策驱 动的消费升级、超跌红利资产修复以及新能源产业链的长期价值。 随着12月市场对科技股追高意愿降温，资金开始寻找新突破口。11月社会消费品零售总额增速放缓至 3.9%，但中央经济工作会议明确将"坚持内需主导"列为2026年首要任务，引发市场对消费刺激政策加码 的强烈预期。华西证券认为，白酒（贵州茅台、五粮液）、家电（美的集团、格力电器）、汽车（比亚 迪、长城汽车）等低位消费蓝筹存在估值修复空间，而跨境电商（小商品城、华凯易佰）等新兴消费领 域或受益政策红利。 尽管11月21日板块集体下挫后尚未完全修复，但华西证券强调，光伏（隆基绿能、TCL中环）、储能 （宁德时代、阳光电源）、新能源汽车等细分领域的基本面支撑依然扎实。随着行业产能出清加速和技 术迭代推进，具备全球竞争力的龙头企业有望率先受益，建议重点关注技术壁垒较高的电池环节和智能 化转型领先的整车企业。 研报提出"核心资产+弹性标的"组合策略：消费板块以食品饮料、家电为底仓， ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Wuhan for November shows a year-on-year increase of 0.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, indicating a stable yet slightly declining price trend [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting a stronger demand for quality and innovative products in the consumer market [1] Group 1: Innovation-Driven Consumption - The price of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with large household appliances rising by 8.0% [2] - The popularity of smart home appliances, such as the washing and drying machine, has surged, particularly among young professionals, aligning with the "lazy economy" trend [2] - Wearable smart devices have transitioned from being merely functional to more companion-like, with prices for these devices increasing by 12.8% year-on-year [2][3] Group 2: Service Upgrades - Service prices in Wuhan rose by 0.2% year-on-year, with cultural and entertainment services increasing by 2.2% [4] - The demand for travel has surged, leading to a 7.5% increase in flight ticket prices, reflecting a growing trend in experiential consumption [4] - New service models, such as convenient car rental services, are gaining popularity, indicating a shift towards an experience-driven economy [4] Group 3: Consumer Stability - Food prices in Wuhan remained stable in November, with a notable decrease in pork prices by 18.4%, contributing to a 0.26 percentage point drop in CPI [6] - The availability of low-cost vegetables, such as "one yuan" and "two yuan" options, has helped maintain stable food prices, with no significant fluctuations expected [6][7] - The stable food price environment supports overall CPI stability and allows for increased consumption in other sectors [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, leading to a differentiation and value transformation in the AI sector [1][3] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull run, driven by earnings and liquidity, with significant potential for both earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in large-cap growth and dividend assets [1][11] - Investment strategies focus on generating excess returns from "growth momentum + value reconstruction dividends," with optimism for AI investments, military technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][15] Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to experience liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar improving global liquidity [2][3] - The AI technology wave is viewed as a "rigid bubble" in the context of great power competition, with concerns about bubbles potentially leading to differentiation and value transformation in the AI market [2][3] - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the internet boom of the late 1990s, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies will differ significantly from those in the early 2000s [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted as a policy driver for China's economic structure in 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and structural opportunities in the stock market [4][6] - Key areas of focus include high-level technological self-reliance, stimulating domestic demand, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [5][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a weak recovery with improving inflation, which may enhance investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The expectation of a stronger renminbi in 2026 is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar and the recovery of nominal economic indicators in China [7][8] - There is an anticipated trend of foreign capital returning to the Chinese stock market, driven by the renminbi appreciation and improved asset attractiveness [8][9] - The report notes that the significant wealth in Chinese households presents further potential for equity market allocation [8][10] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain its bull market in 2026, benefiting from expectations of recovery in mainland China and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [11][12] - The report indicates that the market structure in 2025 suggests significant potential for earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and healthcare [11][12] - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and caution, with a focus on sectors that can attract both domestic and foreign capital [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - High-level opening up is a strategic choice to respond to external uncertainties and enhance national security capabilities, promoting a new development pattern and boosting domestic and international economic cycles [1] Group 1: Customs Facilitation - Shanghai's Waigaoqiao Port is the largest port for automobile imports and exports in China, with a throughput of 3.63 million vehicles in 2024, ranking first globally [2] - The port has established a seamless customs process for automobile exports, enhancing efficiency through an online coordination mechanism and a vehicle customs appointment system [2] - The port operates 15 international automobile roll-on/roll-off shipping routes, connecting to 289 ports in 131 countries and regions, reinforcing its strategic hub position [2] Group 2: Investment Quality Improvement - Lujiazui Financial City in Shanghai attracts significant foreign investment, hosting 70% of the country's foreign asset management institutions and 40% of foreign banks and securities firms [4] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, Shanghai has utilized over $98 billion in foreign investment, with an annual average of over 5,700 new foreign enterprises established [4] - The city’s share of national foreign investment has increased from 14% in 2020 to 15.2% in 2024, reflecting its strong appeal to foreign investors [4] Group 3: International Expansion - Shanghai's total import and export value reached 11.07 trillion yuan in 2024, a 26.5% increase from 2020, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 4% since the 14th Five-Year Plan [7] - Cross-border e-commerce has seen an annual growth rate of over 35%, with 636 enterprises participating in offshore trade by 2024, doubling the scale since 2020 [7] - In Suzhou, a company reported a 190% year-on-year increase in exports, driven by local government initiatives to simplify cross-border e-commerce processes [7] Group 4: Education and Talent Development - The establishment of the first independent overseas university project in Hainan reflects the region's strong support for educational innovation and its alignment with local industry needs [6] - The university aims to cultivate international talent in logistics and digital economy sectors, leveraging the local business ecosystem for practical training [6] Group 5: Digital Trade Growth - Hainan's digital trade volume reached 28.79 billion yuan in 2024, a 44.5% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in computer service exports [10] - The establishment of a data technology company in Hainan aims to support Chinese enterprises in expanding globally and assist foreign companies in entering the Chinese market [10]

12月8日，记者从延安市财政局获悉：今年以来，延安将提振消费、扩大内需作为财政工作的重要 着力点，精准有效施策，全力增强消费对经济发展的拉动力，商品消费规模超24亿元。 延安市财政局积极响应国家扩大内需战略，坚持"政策+资金"双轮驱动，精准发力，激发消费市场 潜力。在政策引领方面，主动协同发展改革、商务等部门，推动消费品以旧换新等"两新"政策扩围增 效，统筹安排保障资金2.69亿元，为促进消费复苏提供有力保障；在重点聚焦方面，联合出台《2025年 延安市提振消费政策措施》，安排专项资金4166万元，精准支持汽车、家电、数码3C等大宗消费，通 过补贴和消费券等方式激发居民购买意愿；在落地见效方面，严格执行恢复和扩大消费16条、跨境电子 商务发展14条等一揽子政策，及时向相关企业兑付补贴资金1485.3万元，推动政策红利直达企业。 "在多维度政策的协同发力下，有效拉动相关商品消费规模超过24亿元，显著放大财政资金的乘数 效应，消费市场整体呈现加速回暖、活力增强的良好态势，为稳定经济增长、推动产业优化升级发挥了 重要作用。"延安市财政局相关负责人说。（记者：王婕妤） ...