Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index continues to show a differentiated pattern, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures expected to remain strong [19][20]. - The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed, and there may be short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market [23]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal is expected to fluctuate, sugar prices are likely to oscillate, and the overall trend of the oil and fat sector is to move in a range [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate, the coking coal and coke market should be cautious about callback risks, and iron ore prices are considered bearish at high levels [56][59][63]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations, copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term with short - term fluctuations, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals have their own characteristics and trends [69][78]. - In the shipping sector, the peak of spot freight rates for container shipping is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices [113]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, asphalt prices will oscillate at high levels, and the prices of other energy and chemical products also have their own trends [118][123]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index continues to be differentiated. The small - cap index performs prominently, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on IC and IM on dips; wait for the discount to widen for the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF; use a bull spread for options [20][21]. Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed. Although there are factors restricting the strengthening of the bond market, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on TF and T contracts on dips; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the overall price of the contract has declined. It is expected to move in a range [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: Commodity price fluctuations have increased, and both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, while domestic sugar prices will face pressure near the upper oscillation platform [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, and domestic sugar prices will oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Core Viewpoint**: The overall trend is to move in a range. The inventory of palm oil is at a relatively high level, the inventory of soybean oil is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is still greatly affected by policies [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the oil and fat market will move in a range with increased volatility. For palm oil, consider shorting at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: Wheat and corn are continuously being auctioned, and the spot price is stable. The U.S. corn price is at the bottom and oscillating, and the domestic corn price will face pressure in the later stage [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the foreign market, go long on the 03 corn contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for the 07 corn contract. Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [38]. Live Pigs - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the price is expected to face pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is abundant, but the price is supported by factors such as cost [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Go long on dips without chasing the rise. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [43][44]. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: Demand has improved, and the egg price has increased steadily. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the demand is average in the short term. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the May contract can be considered for long - position building on dips [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: The February contract is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term. Consider going long on the May contract on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price is oscillating at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long position of the May contract and go short on the October contract on rallies. Long the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. The sales progress of cotton is fast, and there are positive factors such as the expected expansion of textile factory capacity in Xinjiang [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will move in a range in the short term. Consider taking profits on the long position of the recent main contract of Zhengzhou cotton. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: Steel has started to accumulate inventory, and the steel price will continue to oscillate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened seasonally [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the coal and coke market and oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; stay on the sidelines for options [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to callback risks. The current supply and demand of coking coal are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly driven by macro - sentiment and funds [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about callback risks for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the iron ore price at a high level should be treated bearishly. The supply is abundant, and the domestic steel demand is expected to decline, limiting the upward space of the iron ore price [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the iron ore contract at a high level with a light position [63]. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has generally cooled down, and it will move in a range in the short term. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon have their own characteristics, and the cost has a certain impact on the price [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move in a range in the short term for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: The Bloomberg Index has started to adjust, and gold and silver are fluctuating widely. The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has brought selling pressure to the gold and silver markets, and the impact on silver is more significant [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The BCOM has adjusted the weights, and precious metals are fluctuating widely. The supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are different, and the price is affected by factors such as index adjustment and macro - environment [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options [74]. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Buy after the price stabilizes after a callback. Trump's policies and factors such as supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes support the long - term rise of the copper price, but short - term fluctuations are affected by funds and sentiment [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton and buy in batches while controlling the position [78]. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: The expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has led to a price callback. After the price increase, the import window has opened, and the expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the price [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure [81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term risk of a callback. After the price approaches the previous high, funds have taken profits, and the price has followed the sector to correct. However, the fundamentals still have support [83][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the price corrects due to capital outflows, maintain a bullish view after the price stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It has corrected with the sector. The price has corrected with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price, but the demand is weakening [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will correct in the short term due to capital outflows and move with the sector. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [88]. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The shortage pattern of zinc ore is difficult to reverse, the supply of refined zinc may increase slightly, and the consumption has resilience. The price may be affected by capital withdrawal and inventory changes [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the zinc contract at a high level with a light position and be vigilant about the pull - up of the zinc price by long - position funds. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91]. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Buy on dips after the price stabilizes. The supply of lead ingots is difficult to increase significantly, the consumption has resilience, and low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the idea of going long on dips after the price corrects. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner for options [95]. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: After an over - rise and correction, it is ready to rise again. The supply of nickel is in surplus, but the price has risen due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to control the position and operate cautiously [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips after the price corrects and stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It moves following the nickel price. The price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction of nickel ore RKAB quotas, but the upward drive is weaker than that of nickel [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move following the nickel price. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: Be bearish. The production of industrial silicon is difficult to reduce, the downstream demand may decline, and the inventory may continue to accumulate, so the price may fall [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and go short on rallies for new strategies. There is no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [102]. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The market trading of industry self - regulation falls short of expectations, and the futures price is weak. The futures price has fallen due to market rumors, and the industry needs to reach a new balance between "anti - involution" and "anti - monopoly" [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is weak. Participate cautiously and control risks. There is no arbitrage and option strategy [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: A strong variety has corrected but is still running at a high level. Although there is a callback risk due to factors such as industry meetings, the long - term trend is good, and the price center will move up [107]. - **Trading Strategy**: Control the position and operate cautiously. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [107]. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Pay attention to the tariff ruling and non - farm payroll data. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season [109][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Correct with the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term and pay attention to the non - farm payroll data on Friday. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The peak of spot freight rates is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices. The demand growth has slowed down, and some shipping companies have started to lower their spot quotes [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the rate of shipping companies' price cuts. Look for opportunities to go long on the 6 - 10 spread on dips for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and the oil price has rebounded significantly. The situation in Venezuela remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a significant rebound in the oil price. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; the domestic gasoline is strong, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in the crude oil price provides strong cost support. The cost support is obvious due to the rise in the crude oil price, and the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [123]. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and price fluctuations have intensified. The situation in Venezuela has an impact on fuel oil exports and production, and the supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have their own characteristics [127]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term and be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; look for opportunities for the FU59 spread for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [127]. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is oscillating weakly. The demand in Europe and Asia is weak, and the supply in the United States is relatively loose. The price is expected to decline in the long term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [131]. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term geopolitical premium, but the expectation is still under pressure. The increase in the Saudi CP price provides support, but the continuous loss of PDH profits may lead to a decrease in the operating rate [135]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian incident. Be bearish on the far - month contracts in the long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [135]. PX&PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: The news of polyester production cuts has fermented. The PX supply is relatively abundant, the PTA production rate has not changed much, and the downstream polyester production cuts have increased, but the cost is supported by the rise in the oil price [137]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate

Core Insights - The analysis by Tian Yaxiong from CITIC Futures indicates that the commodity market in 2026 will be driven by the combination of "U.S. fiscal expansion" and "AI capital expenditure growth," which are crucial for supporting economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. fiscal expansion is playing a vital role as a "counter-cyclical support" in the current economic cycle, with a series of legislative measures becoming core variables for economic growth [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are projected to invest hundreds of billions to over a trillion dollars in AI-related capital expenditures, creating new demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [1] - The power density of AI data centers significantly exceeds that of traditional facilities, leading to increased reliance on copper and aluminum for power distribution and cooling systems, which shapes the future commodity market [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Domestic economic recovery is expected to continue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely turning positive after the third quarter of 2026 [1] - The significant increase in export value added indicates resilience in industrial upgrades, while the monetary credit cycle has shown signs of a turning point [1] - The M1-M2 indicators are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, leading PPI by approximately six months [1] Group 3: Cognitive Discrepancies - Four key cognitive discrepancies were highlighted: 1. The paradox of capacity clearance, where industries like electrolytic aluminum and lithium processing face a "loss-expansion" dilemma, with leading firms expanding despite losses [2] 2. The need to validate whether current massive capital expenditures in AI are overextending future investment potential and if global labor productivity can significantly improve due to AI [2] 3. The U.S. designating copper and silver as critical minerals, leading to increased trade barriers and supply tensions [2] 4. The potential slowdown in the "de-coal" process among emerging Asian economies due to energy security and economic considerations, impacting demand for related commodities [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The historical combination of "fiscal expansion + de-globalization" since 1970 suggests that commodities could enter a significant bull market under similar conditions [2] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, closely tied to AI and fiscal policies, while remaining cautious of monetary policy shifts and geopolitical events that may cause market volatility [2]

实施意见明确：到2027年，我国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给，产业规模和赋能水平稳居世 界前列。推动3—5个通用大模型在制造业深度应用，推出1000个高水平工业智能体，打造100个工业领 域高质量数据集，推广500个典型应用场景。培育2—3家具有全球影响力的生态主导型企业和一批专精 特新中小企业，打造一批"懂智能、熟行业"的赋能应用服务商，选树1000家标杆企业。建成全球领先的 开源开放生态，安全治理能力全面提升，为人工智能发展贡献中国方案。 人工智能与实体经济深度融合，深刻改变制造业生产模式和经济形态，驱动产业加速升级。1月7日，工 业和信息化部等8部门发布《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，为加快推进人工智能技术在制造业 融合应用明确目标举措。 21项具体措施推动人工智能在制造业融合应用 "十五五"规划建议提出，"全面实施'人工智能+'行动""抢占人工智能产业应用制高点，全方位赋能千行 百业"。 "人工智能技术与制造业应用双向赋能，要一端抓技术供给，推动智能产业化；一端抓赋能应用，加快 产业智能化，整体壮大产业生态，促进人工智能科技创新与产业创新深度融合。"工业和信息化部科技 司有关负责人表示 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 9, 2026 [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 9, 2026, the domestic spot price was 101970, the LME spot price was 12837, and the spot ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.93, with a loss of 941.12. The loss for spot export was 1194.91 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24180, the LME spot price was 3126, and the spot ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1929.08 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24000, the LME spot price was 3064, and the spot ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1591.59 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 146650, the LME spot price was 16961, and the spot ratio was 8.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.02, with a profit of 1776.70 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17350, the LME spot price was 1988, and the spot ratio was 8.70. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.59, with a profit of 228.79 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, the third month, the fourth month, and the fifth month and the spot month were - 1950, - 1920, - 1940, - 2010 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 618, 1134, 1659, 2183 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 340, - 305, - 270, - 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 355, 486, 616 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 625, - 585, - 540, - 495 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 233, 367, 500, 634 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 420, - 385, - 350, - 345 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 324, 433, 543 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 10960, - 10810, - 10510, - 10150 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 900, and the theoretical spread was 7176 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract, the next - month contract and the spot were 1145, - 805 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 378, 656 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 135, - 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 69, 209 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 158, 273 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 9, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.22, 4.26, 5.83, 0.99, 1.37, 0.72 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 4.06, 4.12, 6.28, 0.99, 1.53, 0.65 respectively [5]

"人工智能技术与制造业应用双向赋能，要一端抓技术供给，推动智能产业化；一端抓赋能应用， 加快产业智能化，整体壮大产业生态，促进人工智能科技创新与产业创新深度融合。"工业和信息化部 科技司有关负责人表示，实施意见围绕创新筑基、赋智升级、产品突破、主体培育、生态壮大、安全护 航、国际合作等7个重点任务，细化21项具体措施，加快制造业智能化、绿色化、融合化发展。 人民日报记者 刘温馨 人工智能与实体经济深度融合，深刻改变制造业生产模式和经济形态，驱动产业加速升级。1月7 日，工业和信息化部等8部门发布《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，为加快推进人工智能技术在 制造业融合应用明确目标举措。 21项具体措施推动人工智能在制造业融合应用 "十五五"规划建议提出，"全面实施'人工智能+'行动""抢占人工智能产业应用制高点，全方位赋能 千行百业"。 打造人工智能发展和赋能应用主力军，既要鼓励龙头企业、央企国企等先行先试，提供规模化应用 场景，研发应用工业智能体，探索人工智能赋能制造业新模式；同时也应深入实施中小企业数字化赋能 专项行动，支持中小企业开展数字化、智能化改造，加快中小企业人工智能应用复制推广。实施意见还 鼓 ...

实施意见明确：到2027年，我国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给，产业规模和赋能水平稳居世 界前列。推动3—5个通用大模型在制造业深度应用，推出1000个高水平工业智能体，打造100个工业领 域高质量数据集，推广500个典型应用场景。培育2—3家具有全球影响力的生态主导型企业和一批专精 特新中小企业，打造一批"懂智能、熟行业"的赋能应用服务商，选树1000家标杆企业。建成全球领先的 开源开放生态，安全治理能力全面提升，为人工智能发展贡献中国方案。 "手把手"为制造业企业提供转型升级指南 纺织车间需要空调风机进行温湿度调控、空气净化及通风换气，传统产品依赖人工调控，精度低、故障 难预判。"我们依托浪潮云洲工业大模型，在传统风机上加装多类传感器，采集、训练数据，研发出数 智风机。"山东金信空调集团董事长吴子才介绍，数智风机能根据实时工况优化风量等相关参数，精准 控制车间温湿度，设备检修周期缩短40%。 "人工智能+制造"怎么干 人工智能与实体经济深度融合，深刻改变制造业生产模式和经济形态，驱动产业加速升级。1月7日，工 业和信息化部等8部门发布《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，为加快推进人工智能技术在制 ...

人工智能与实体经济深度融合，深刻改变制造业生产模式和经济形态，驱动产业加速升级。1月7日，工 业和信息化部等8部门发布《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，为加快推进人工智能技术在制造业 融合应用明确目标举措。 21项具体措施推动人工智能在制造业融合应用 "十五五"规划建议提出，"全面实施'人工智能+'行动""抢占人工智能产业应用制高点，全方位赋能千行 百业"。 "人工智能技术与制造业应用双向赋能，要一端抓技术供给，推动智能产业化；一端抓赋能应用，加快 产业智能化，整体壮大产业生态，促进人工智能科技创新与产业创新深度融合。"工业和信息化部科技 司有关负责人表示，实施意见围绕创新筑基、赋智升级、产品突破、主体培育、生态壮大、安全护航、 国际合作等7个重点任务，细化21项具体措施，加快制造业智能化、绿色化、融合化发展。 实施意见明确：到2027年，我国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给，产业规模和赋能水平稳居世 界前列。推动3—5个通用大模型在制造业深度应用，推出1000个高水平工业智能体，打造100个工业领 域高质量数据集，推广500个典型应用场景。培育2—3家具有全球影响力的生态主导型企业和一批专精 特新 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the main source of incremental capital in the A-share market for 2025 will come from active funds such as leveraged funds and private equity, with significant inflows from insurance funds, while public funds show a trend of net redemption [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the market experienced a recovery supported by abundant capital, with retail investors contributing approximately 240 billion yuan through silver-securities transfers and foreign capital returning around 100 billion yuan [1] - Insurance funds significantly increased their market presence with an inflow of about 420 billion yuan, while ETF funds contributed approximately 80 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the overall A-share market since 2025 has distinct characteristics of incremental capital, with active funds like private equity and leveraged funds being the primary contributors, while public funds show divergence with net redemptions in active equity funds [2] - The report notes that the process of resident capital entering the market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals, as the overall risk appetite among residents remains low [3] - The incremental capital structure in 2025 differs from that of 2020, despite similarities in the macroeconomic environment and overall net capital inflow [4] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report estimates that total incremental capital could reach 2 trillion yuan, with active retail funds expected to further enter the market, and insurance and dividend scales likely to continue their high growth [5] - The report anticipates that financing and silver-securities transfers from residents could total around 1 trillion yuan, while insurance funds are projected to flow in approximately 700 billion yuan [5] - The overall dividend payout ratio in the A-share market is nearing 50%, with expectations for continued high growth in dividend scales, estimated to bring in about 950 billion yuan in 2026 [5]

Core Insights - The analysis highlights the significant impact of "U.S. fiscal expansion" and "AI capital expenditure growth" on the rise of non-ferrous and precious metals, with U.S. fiscal policies playing a crucial role in supporting economic growth during the current economic cycle [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The global macroeconomic landscape is evolving, leading to a transformation in demand for commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors [1] - AI-related capital expenditures from major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are projected to reach hundreds of billions to over a trillion dollars, creating new demand for metals such as copper and aluminum [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is expected to continue its recovery, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely turning positive after the third quarter of 2026 [2] - There is a notable increase in the export value added, indicating resilience in industrial upgrades [2] Group 3: Key Divergences - Four key cognitive divergences are highlighted: 1. The paradox of capacity clearance, where industries like electrolytic aluminum and lithium processing are expanding despite losses, delaying industry clearance [2] 2. The validation of AI narratives, questioning whether current capital expenditures are overextending future investment potential and if global labor productivity can significantly improve due to AI [2] 3. The U.S. designating copper and silver as critical minerals, leading to increased trade barriers and supply tightness [2] 4. The potential slowdown in the "decarbonization consensus" among emerging Asian economies, which may affect the demand for related commodities [2] Group 4: Future Projections - The analysis draws parallels to the historical combination of "fiscal expansion + de-globalization" starting in the 1970s, suggesting that a similar environment could lead to a significant bull market in commodities [2] - Investment strategies should focus on the AI-driven and fiscal-related themes within the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors while remaining cautious of monetary policy shifts and geopolitical events that could create market volatility [2]

针对使用人工智能进行研发设计、生产制造、经营管理及开展延伸服务的企业，实施意见还提供附件 《制造业企业人工智能应用指南》，从开展智能化评估和规划、提升智能化基础能力、构建高质量数据 集、合理规划布局算力资源、开展模型选型与调优、模型部署与集成、做好人工智能应用安全防护等方 面给出详尽指南，"手把手"为企业智能化转型升级提供实施路径和方法指引。 人工智能与实体经济深度融合，深刻改变制造业生产模式和经济形态，驱动产业加速升级。1月7日，工 业和信息化部等8部门发布《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，为加快推进人工智能技术在制造业 融合应用明确目标举措。 21项具体措施推动人工智能在制造业融合应用 "十五五"规划建议提出，"全面实施'人工智能+'行动""抢占人工智能产业应用制高点，全方位赋能千行 百业"。 "人工智能技术与制造业应用双向赋能，要一端抓技术供给，推动智能产业化；一端抓赋能应用，加快 产业智能化，整体壮大产业生态，促进人工智能科技创新与产业创新深度融合。"工业和信息化部科技 司有关负责人表示，实施意见围绕创新筑基、赋智升级、产品突破、主体培育、生态壮大、安全护航、 国际合作等7个重点任务，细化21项 ...