市场焦点方面，受国际贵金属价格大幅震荡影响，今日黄金股集体遭遇重挫。其中，山东黄金 （HK01787）跌超14%，江西铜业股份（HK00358）、中国黄金国际（HK02099）、紫金黄金国际 （HK02259）跌超10%，紫金矿业、招金矿业跌超9%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股普跌，快手、小米跌超3%，腾讯、阿里巴巴跌超2%，百度、联想、美团、 京东、哔哩哔哩跌超1%。石油股普遍下跌，中石油跌超1%。光伏太阳能股走弱，福莱特玻璃跌超6%； 创新药概念多数下跌，石药集团跌超10%。 1月30日，是港股市场结束1月行情的最后一个交易日。尽管今日市场出现调整，但恒指月涨幅依旧接近 7%，周四更是创下近4年半来新高。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收27387.11点，下跌580.98点，跌幅2.08%。 恒生科技指数报收5718.18点，下跌122.92点，跌幅2.10%。 展望后市： 中信证券认为，2025年四季度导致港股下跌的业绩预期调整和资金面扰动已告一段落。展望2026年2 月，港股业绩预期已有显著调整，叠加内外部资金面的扰动因素也已告一段落，该行判断港股2025年12 月下旬以来的春季行情或将延续，整体呈现春节前大盘 ...

2026.01. 30 本文字数：1224，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 郭霁莹 1月以来，全国经历多轮阶段性强寒潮天气，"冷暖转换"频繁导致用电负荷多次突破历史度冬负荷极 值。随着春节假期临近，国内迎峰度冬能源保供迎来关键时期。 国家能源局电力司副司长刘明阳1月30日介绍，入冬以来，华北、西北、东北3个区域电网，和新 疆、西藏等14个省级电网负荷累计86次创历史新高。另外，受大范围寒潮天气影响，1月19日至21 日，全国最大电力负荷连续三天创冬季新高，首次突破14亿千瓦，1月21日最高达14.33亿千瓦。 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 为确保迎峰度冬全国能源电力平稳有序供应，国家能源局给出四点保供方案：在责任落实上，推 行"一省一策"细化落实各项措施，优化电网方式安排并强化省间余缺互济；监测预警方面，密切跟踪 天气、负荷与供需形势变化，对线路台 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices rose significantly this week, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced US crude oil production, decreased US crude oil inventories, and a falling dollar index. However, the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged, and the rebound height of oil prices may be limited without clear production cut signals or significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4]. - The overall valuation of the chemical sector has increased due to rising crude oil prices. PX supply is expected to ease, and PTA may face inventory accumulation in February. PTA prices are expected to oscillate at a high level following the cost side [4]. - The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been alleviated, but the medium - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets have strengthened, but their supply - demand has turned loose, with limited upward momentum and a risk of correction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, Brent crude oil reached $70/barrel. Tensions in the Middle East and concerns about potential supply disruptions, along with reduced US production and inventory, and a falling dollar, supported oil prices [4]. - OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increase from January to March 2026, but the long - term increase trend remains. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute 1.2 million barrels per day of production growth in 2026 [4]. PX & PTA - PX load remained unchanged, with processing fees stable at around $350/ton. Supply is expected to be looser in the future, and attention should be paid to terminal restocking [4]. - PTA plant inventory decreased slightly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level with the cost side [4]. - As of Friday, the PTA spot market price was 5,290 yuan/ton, up 241 yuan/ton from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.83%, unchanged from last week. Factory inventory days decreased by 0.04 days to 3.58 days [16]. - PTA processing fees were 416 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from last week. The price increase was mainly due to the strong support of PX prices [16]. MEG - Domestic ethylene glycol synthesis gas plants are undergoing spring maintenance, and the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors has boosted its valuation, reducing supply pressure [5]. - Port inventory reached 812,000 tons, but imports are expected to decline in February due to overseas plant shutdowns. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - As of Friday, the ethylene glycol price in East China was 3,814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.50%, up 0.44% month - on - month [25]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene market has strengthened, but the supply - demand has turned loose, and there is a risk of correction [5]. - The styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 69.28%, down 0.35% month - on - month. Both factory and port inventories have increased, but the inventory pressure has been alleviated [38]. Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 81.81%, down 1.81 percentage points from last week. The production and capacity utilization rate declined significantly due to pre - holiday plant maintenance [30]. - The开工 rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises was 42.41%, down 8.79% from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 6.70 days, down 0.85 days from last week, and the average finished - product inventory level was 28.79 days, up 0.48 days from last week [30].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (1.19-1.23) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡运行，尾盘走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.28美元，周涨3.48%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 65.44美元，周涨1.93%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至449.8元/桶，周涨2.51%。周内前期，伊朗通过镇压平息了抗议活动，此前特朗普推迟军 事行动的发言也降低了美国军事打击这一主要产油国并扰乱其供应的风险，投资者对美伊局势持观望态度导致油价承压。除地缘局势外，供应 方面，哈萨克斯坦最大油田因电力故障停产，供应减少支撑油价，而对委内瑞拉原油封锁仍在继续，美方已 ...

或受美国总统特朗普加大对伊朗军事威胁消息影响，国际油价连涨三天冲破了四个月高点。 从近期盘面表现来看，1月29日，国际油价收涨超3%，布伦特原油价格收于70.71美元/桶，突破70美元大关。 分析师认为，长期来看，今年的油价仍然存在下调压力。 "最近油价的涨势超出了大家的预期，业内此前并没预判到能涨这么多。"隆众资讯原油分析师李彦今天在接受第一财经记者采访时直 言。 截至1月30日第一财经记者发稿，国际油价有小幅下调，WTI美国原油价格下调1.941%至64.15美元/桶，布伦特原油价格下调1.897%至 68.25美元/桶。 中银国际分析，短期内国际油价面临关税政策与OPEC+增产的压力，但地缘风险溢价、OPEC+的干预能力以及全球需求韧性有望支撑油 价底部；另外，宏观层面的不确定性或将加大油价的波动水平。 李彦认为，主要因素是市场对美伊局势的担忧，由于地缘因素扰动了情绪，业内担心未来原油供应可能出现问题。而次要因素有两个， 一是前段时间的寒潮天气确实导致美国原油的产量下降，另一个是哈萨克斯坦前段时间由于停电故障，部分油田暂时停产，也对油市产 生了影响。 宏观层面，据摩根大通报告，占据哈萨克斯坦近一半产量的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Cuban National Oil Company has stated that there is no interruption in fuel supply to gas stations in Cuba, refuting claims of a suspension in fuel supply [1] Group 1 - The Cuban National Oil Company issued a statement on social media confirming that fuel supply to gas stations remains uninterrupted [1] - The company addressed rumors regarding a pause in fuel supply, labeling them as false [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian oil companies have significantly widened the price gap between Urals crude oil and Brent crude oil, indicating a substantial impact on Russia's oil revenue and economic stability [1][4]. Group 1: Price Impact and Revenue Decline - The discount on Urals crude oil has increased from approximately $15 per barrel to over $24 per barrel, leading to a projected 20% year-on-year decline in Russia's energy revenue by 2025 [4]. - In December, the price of Urals crude oil fell to $39.2 per barrel, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. - A former Russian energy executive reported that Urals crude oil sold to India has been priced as low as $22 to $25 per barrel, barely covering production costs [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure and Deficit - Russia's fiscal deficit is expected to reach 2.6% of GDP by 2025, five times the planned level, marking the longest deficit period in Putin's tenure [5]. - The Russian government anticipates a significant budget deficit in early 2026 due to reduced energy revenues and increased government spending [6]. - If Urals crude oil prices deviate by $10 from budget expectations, Russia's fiscal revenue could decrease by 1.5 to 1.8 trillion rubles [6]. Group 3: Changes in Export Dynamics - The structure of Russian oil exports has shifted, with a 23% increase in crude oil exports to China in December, while exports to India dropped by 29% [6]. - The number of oil tankers with undisclosed destinations has increased, indicating a rise in floating storage of crude oil [7]. - The use of transshipment points like Egypt and Singapore has surged, as these locations serve as intermediaries for Russian oil exports [9]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Implications - The share of energy revenue in Russia's fiscal budget has decreased from over 50% at its peak to about 24%, the lowest in at least a decade [10]. - The ongoing sanctions are creating a "slow and cumulative squeezing effect" on Russia's fiscal stability, potentially harming long-term economic growth and increasing macroeconomic imbalances [10]. - The reliance on oil revenue remains high, and the current market conditions have left Russia in a vulnerable position [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a relaxation of sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry, allowing certain transactions related to Venezuelan oil activities [1] - U.S. entities can engage in transportation, export, sale, and storage of oil sourced from Venezuela with the Venezuelan government and its state-owned oil company, provided that contracts comply with U.S. law [1] - Transactions must ensure that funds are paid into a foreign government deposit fund or other accounts designated by the U.S. Treasury, as per an executive order signed by President Trump on January 9 [1] Group 2 - The executive order aims to "protect" Venezuelan oil revenues held in U.S. Treasury accounts from being seized or entangled in legal proceedings [1] - U.S. Vice President Pence stated that Venezuela can only sell oil if it aligns with U.S. interests, indicating that the U.S. controls Venezuela through financial means [1] - The U.S. has implemented multiple rounds of stringent sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector while adjusting policies through licensing documents issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control [1]

中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆30日主持例行记者会。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 郭嘉昆：我们注意到有关报道，中方一贯反对非法单边制裁，关于中国能源政策及相关具体问题，建议 向主管部门进行询问。 有记者提问：委内瑞拉立法机构全国代表大会在例行会议上通过一项法案，允许私人和外国投资委内瑞 拉石油行业，美国此前也解除了一些相关制裁。中国企业是否考虑重新评估或扩大在委内瑞拉能源领域 的投资？ ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock index opened lower and continued to decline, closing down 2.08% at 27,387.11 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.1% to 5,718.18 points [1] - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with Alibaba down 2.37%, Tencent down 2.57%, and JD Group down 1.92% [1] - Gold stocks plummeted, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining down over 14% and Shandong Gold Mining down over 14% [1] - Lithium mining stocks also fell, with Ganfeng Lithium down nearly 11% and Tianqi Lithium down over 10% [1] - Education and storage chip concepts rose, with New Oriental up 5.52% and China Spring up 22.76% [1] Company Insights - Guoquan (02517.HK) expects revenue of approximately 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 19.8% to 21.3%, with net profit projected at 443 million to 463 million yuan, up 83.7% to 92.0% [2] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) has received acceptance for a new indication application for its innovative drug, which may provide a new treatment option for patients with unresectable liver cancer [2] - Gilead Sciences-B (01672.HK) reported positive top-line results for its oral FASN inhibitor in treating acne [2] - Baiaosaitu-B (02315.HK) anticipates revenue of 1.369 billion to 1.389 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.61% to 41.65%, with net profit expected to rise by 384.26% to 443.88% [2] - Nocera (09969.HK) expects total revenue of approximately 2.365 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 134%, and aims to achieve profitability with a net profit of around 633 million yuan [2] Financial Projections - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635.HK) projects net profit between 350 million to 500 million yuan in 2025, an increase of 50.12% to 114.46% [3] - Chunli Medical (01858.HK) expects net profit of 245 million to 288 million yuan in 2025, a rise of 96.01% to 130.41% [3] - Yujian Xiaomian (02408.HK) anticipates net profit between 100 million to 115 million yuan in 2025, an increase of approximately 64.7% to 89.5% [4] - China Railway (00390.HK) has recently won several major projects with a total bid amount of approximately 43.292 billion yuan [5] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) expects net profit between 4.5886 billion to 4.7235 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 70.0% to 75.0% [6] - New天绿色能源 (00956.HK) expects to complete a cumulative power generation of 15.2104 million MWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.71% [7] Institutional Views - Guoyuan International suggests that Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform U.S. stocks due to fiscal cliff and geopolitical factors, benefiting from a trend of diminishing dollar credit [8] - Huatai Securities believes that technology and cyclical "consumables" are likely to lead the rebound in Hong Kong stocks, supported by improved macro data and stable funding conditions [9] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the spring market for Hong Kong stocks will continue, with large-cap stocks showing relative gains and growth sectors supported by policy performing better [9]