沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 沥 青 日期 华东现货低 价 山东现货低价 东北现货低价 盘面价格 主力基差 盘面主力-马瑞 油成本价差 韩国华东CI F 韩国华东价格 人民币 山东焦化料 2025/04/28 3520 3450 3800 3451 69 192 463 4078 4290 2025/04/29 3520 3450 3800 3430 90 258 463 4077 4260 2025/04/30 3520 3450 3800 3408 112 - 463 4076 4260 2025/05/06 3520 3410 3700 3361 129 - 455 4011 4260 2025/05/07 3500 3410 3700 3432 58 - 455 4011 4260 变化 -20 0 0 71 -71 - 0 0 0 日度点评： 山东现货持稳，市场参考价3510-3700元/吨。沥青盘面震荡，裂差利润中性水位。山东地区汽油柴油小幅上涨。沥青日产6. 3(+0)万吨。 周度观点： 本周原油端供应趋紧、油价上涨，沥青价格随之走高，山东现货小幅上涨、盘面小幅走强，开工低位 ...

| 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU 09 | FU 01-05 | FU 05-09 | FU 09-01 | | 2025/04/28 | 2742 | 3067 | 2880 | -325 | 187 | 138 | | 2025/04/29 | 2684 | 3010 | 2818 | -326 | 192 | 134 | | 2025/04/30 | 2643 | 3010 | 2767 | -367 | 243 | 124 | | 2025/05/06 | 2572 | 2555 | 2696 | 17 | -141 | 124 | | 2025/05/07 | 2618 | 2598 | 2744 | 20 | -146 | 126 | | 变化 | 46 | 43 | 48 | 3 | -5 | 2 | | | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has driven the rebound of oil prices. However, if the tariff issue is not effectively resolved, it will still suppress the market in the long - term. The supply of PX has tightened, and the demand has been further consolidated. The fundamentals of supply and demand may improve, and market confidence has increased. [2] - With the rise in oil prices and many PTA device overhauls, PTA has accelerated inventory reduction this week. In the short term, PTA spot prices will mainly fluctuate with the cost. The polyester factory starts at the beginning of the month, and there may be pressure on the shipment of polyester filament later. The downstream polyester maintains high - level operation in May, which alleviates concerns about the decline in market demand. [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has increased. The supply - side quotes have mostly followed the upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere is average. Some overhauled devices are expected to restart, and the downstream will mainly consume inventory in the short term. [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner, waiting for the results of the China - US talks. [2] Summary by Related Content Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 7, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $58.07 per barrel, down 1.73% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $61.12 per barrel, down 1.66%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $562 per ton, up 1.31%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $657.5 per ton, up 2.65%. [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4466 yuan per ton, up 2.38%; the settlement price was 4458 yuan per ton, up 2.29%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4482 yuan per ton, down 1.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4565 yuan per ton, up 1.90%. [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6288 yuan per ton, up 2.58%; the settlement price was 6270 yuan per ton, up 2.52%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 5918 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $206 per ton, up 7.15%; the PX - MX spread was $110.5 per ton, up 3.76%. [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5778 yuan per ton, up 1.55%; the settlement price was 5772 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5780 yuan per ton, up 1.58%; in the South China market, it was 5830 yuan per ton, up 1.75%. [1] - **Downstream**: On May 7, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6380 yuan per ton, up 0.95%; the price index of polyester chip was 5660 yuan per ton, up 1.62%; the price index of bottle - grade chip was 5780 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.18% on May 7, 2025. The PTA factory load rate was 71.03%, down 2.90% from the previous value. The load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. [1] Production and Sales - On May 7, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 61%, an increase of 31 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 125%, an increase of 52 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 70%, an increase of 32 percentage points. [1] Device Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to overhaul the 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in Huizhou on April 28 and the 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Dalian around May 10, and will reduce the contract supply in May. [2] Transaction Strategy - Driven by crude oil, the TA2509 contract closed at 4466 yuan per ton (up 2.48%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.3 million lots. Due to the PX overhaul season, the supply decreased, and the 2509 contract closed at 6288 yuan per ton (up 2.81%), with an intraday trading volume of 27,050 lots. PR followed the cost, and the 2506 contract closed at 5778 yuan per ton (up 1.69%), with an intraday trading volume of 26,300 lots. [2]

关税影响"验证期"的投资思路 20250507 摘要 • 为应对关税冲击，中国推出一揽子金融政策以稳定市场和预期，但政策对 冲效果有待观察，需关注城市更新等逆周期政策及配套融资。 • 全球经济增长预期普遍下调，美国消费者信心指数和企业雇佣指数创新低， 但中美流动性充裕支撑黄金、白银等金融属性大宗商品价格。 • 能源板块因 OPEC 成员国竞相增产面临供给侧压力，价格可能螺旋下跌； 全球制造业周期放缓影响未完全显现，需规避受关税冲击的工业品。 • 全球去美元趋势下，亚洲货币被低估，美国追求贸易平衡或导致美元资产 配置下行，黄金作为避险资产配置价值提升。 • 央行通过降准降息等措施稳市场，重点支持科技创新、产业升级、资本市 场、消费及房地产市场，货币政策先行推动资产价格上升。 • 铜价因供给紧张和贸易失衡表现强劲，但若美国关税落地或非美地区开工 率下降，铜价可能下跌，上行空间有限，下行风险积聚。 • 能源市场背景下降，但天然气、核电及海外电力表现优于预期，国内核电 重启加速，中国铀矿需求庞大，将显著拉动铀矿价格及产能。 Q&A 当前宏观局势和周期品投资策略如何应对特朗普政府的关税政策变化？ 当前宏观局势较为混沌， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in stable overall inventories. The market is showing marginal improvement. Although the fundamentals have slightly improved, the short - term outlook is weakly stable, and inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Daily Review Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3,510 - 3,700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly. Asphalt daily production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1]. b) Weekly Viewpoint - **Price Movement**: This week, due to tight crude oil supply and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally [1]. - **Inventory Status**: Low production and a slight increase in shipments led to a continuous decline in factory inventories and an increase in social inventories, resulting in stable overall inventories. The market is showing marginal improvement. The north has a tight supply, while the supply in East and South China is relatively abundant [1]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in production in April. Negative factors include weak demand, weak spot prices in East and South China, and price cuts by Sinopec [1]. - **Outlook and Suggestions**: The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the short - term outlook is weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1].

证券时报·数据宝统计，上海石油化工股份在港交所公告显示，5月7日以每股1.180港元至1.200港元的价 格回购315.60万股，回购金额达378.53万港元。该股当日收盘价1.200港元，上涨1.69%，全天成交额 3028.29万港元。 自4月24日以来公司已连续8日进行回购，合计回购1884.40万股，累计回购金额2199.13万港元。 其间该 股累计下跌0.83%。 今年以来该股累计进行30次回购，合计回购5982.00万股，累计回购金额7009.61万港元。（数据宝） 上海石油化工股份回购明细 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.05.07 | 315.60 | 1.200 | 1.180 | 378.53 | | 2025.05.06 | 260.00 | 1.180 | 1.170 | 306.20 | | 2025.05.02 | 67.40 | 1.170 | 1.160 | 78.49 | | 2025.04.30 | 204.60 | 1. ...

原油强势从成本端提振聚酯链，对二甲苯（PX）和PTA主力合约收盘分别上涨2.81%和2.72%。国投期 货指出，受油价反弹及国内政策利好预期提振，PX和PTA价格反弹。4月下旬以来，国际贸易摩擦担忧 缓解叠加汽油裂差回升，PX估值低位回升，修复驱动受制于PX装置重启及PTA集中检修。PTA装置检 修持续，库存持续下降，PTA月差和基差走强，PTA-原油价差持续回升。后市来看，东海期货认为，短 期国内PX装置检修仍然偏多，以及PTA持续去库，和5月后PTA装置回归预期下，PX将继续保持偏紧平 衡水平，或测试压力位，保持震荡格局。而PTA价格短期小幅反弹更多是近期社会库存和仓单继续去 化，下游情况或限制上方空间，短期震荡为主。 燃料油方面，短期高、低硫燃料油期货预计跟随原油波动加剧。就基本面而言，光大期货表示，预计5 月东西方套利到货量减少将在短期内支撑低硫市场基本面，低硫船燃下游加注需求相对稳定，对市场基 本面稍有支撑；高硫燃料油也受益于中东夏季发电需求改善预期的支撑，但原料采购需求低迷仍将施压 市场，且来自中东货源将在4月底陆续抵达。预计短期FU和FU绝对价格将跟随成本端原油波动，但是 自身基本面的支撑仍存。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 10.75 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Views - The company's aramid business is experiencing steady growth, while the spandex segment is under pressure due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and price competition [4][10]. - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 222 million, 292 million, and 361 million CNY respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision from previous estimates [5][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the aramid market, which has a projected compound annual growth rate of 5-10% globally, despite current price competition [10]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,925 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 3,929 million CNY in 2024, and projected revenues of 4,494 million CNY in 2025, 4,938 million CNY in 2026, and 5,359 million CNY in 2027, indicating a growth trajectory [7][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline significantly in 2024 to 90 million CNY, before rebounding to 222 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 147.9% [7][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 16.0% in 2024 to 21.4% by 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [7][10]. Segment Performance - The spandex segment is projected to face continued challenges, with a forecasted gross margin of -11.86% in 2024, while the aramid segment is expected to see a 13% increase in sales volume [10]. - The company is advancing its aramid-coated diaphragm industrialization process, with pilot projects already in production and full-scale production expected to begin in 2025 [10].

安全生产是企业发展的生命线。节前，大庆石化开展全方位隐患大排查，专业部室对人员密集场所、消防设施、运行设备、备品配件及应急物资等进行专项 检查，制定有针对性的整改管控措施，有效防范风险。节日期间，各运行部门聚焦工艺、设备、环保等核心要素，强化生产受控管理，严把作业审批与操作 变动，保障生产各环节安全可控、精准高效。领导干部带头压实责任，严格执行带班值班制度，14家生产单位及设备维修中心总值班均由一级工程师以上担 任，备岗人员覆盖生产、机动、安全等关键岗位，确保突发情况时第一时间响应处置。机关部室安排专业主管值守，值班人员深入一线实时掌握生产动态， 与电气、仪表等团队形成联动，协同保障装置稳定运行。岗位操作人员精心监盘、精准操作、精细巡检，对重点岗位、要害部位进行不间断巡查，做到隐患 早发现、早处理，为装置高效运行保驾护航。 I r Holly College of the world N 中国发展网讯 刘莉莉 刘军强 记者袁小峰报道 "五一"节日期间，大庆石化严格落实中国石油集团公司部署要求，围绕安全生产与市场保供，以精细管理筑牢 安全防线，以科学调度提升保供效能，圆满完成既定的生产目标任务。 面对节日期间民 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 10.75 CNY per share [1][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the aramid business is steadily growing, while the spandex segment is under pressure due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and price competition [4][9]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 222 million, 292 million, and 361 million CNY respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision from previous estimates [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,925 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 3,929 million CNY in 2024, and projected revenues of 4,494 million CNY in 2025, 4,938 million CNY in 2026, and 5,359 million CNY in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 14.4% in 2025 [7][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 90 million CNY in 2024 to 222 million CNY in 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 147.9% [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 16.0% in 2024 to 21.4% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 2.3% in 2024 to 6.7% in 2027 [7][12]. Segment Analysis - The spandex segment is facing challenges with a projected gross margin of -11.86% in 2024, leading to further losses [9]. - The aramid segment is expected to maintain a growth trajectory, with a 13% increase in sales volume in 2024 despite a decline in revenue and gross profit due to intensified price competition [9]. - The company is advancing its aramid-coated diaphragm industrialization process, with pilot projects already in production and full-scale production expected to commence in 2025 [9].