Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization, with an implied growth rate requirement of approximately 4.7% during this period. The focus is on high-quality development, emphasizing total factor productivity, resident consumption rates, and domestic demand [3][9] - The improvement in China-US relations is noted, with a meeting between the leaders on October 30 discussing economic cooperation and resulting in a consensus that includes the suspension of certain tariffs and export controls. This is expected to enhance risk appetite in the market [3][9] - There is a continued demand for stabilizing domestic demand in the fourth quarter, with a reported GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, making it feasible to meet the annual target of 5%. However, there are signs of slowing retail sales growth and negative fixed asset investment growth [10][11] - The Federal Reserve has continued its gradual interest rate cuts, with a clear end to quantitative tightening (QT) by December 1. This is seen as a move to maintain the Fed's independence and data-driven decision-making [10][11] Key Stock Recommendations - The report includes a selection of stocks across various industries, highlighting their potential based on current market conditions and company fundamentals. The recommended stocks include: - Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) in the petrochemical sector, with a focus on its resilience and dividend policy [12][13] - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) in basic chemicals, benefiting from its integrated supply chain and expected recovery in market demand [12][13] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a strong pipeline and expected revenue growth [12][13] - Kaili Medical (300633.SZ) in the medical sector, focusing on high-end product launches and market expansion [12][13] - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ) in agriculture, benefiting from stable growth in poultry production [12][13] - Top Group (601689.SH) in the automotive sector, expected to benefit from its position as a key supplier to Tesla [12][13] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) in electronics, with strong demand for semiconductor products [12][13] - Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ) in electronics, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic semiconductor production [12][13] - Anhui Heli (600761.SH) in machinery, focusing on global expansion and smart logistics [12][13] - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) in machinery, benefiting from the recovery in the excavator industry [12][13] ETF Recommendations - The report also recommends several ETFs, including: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588000.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 47.13% [15] - E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (159819.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 69.58% [15] - Chemical ETF (159870.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 25.97% [15] - GF CSI Infrastructure Engineering ETF (516970.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 9.09% [15] - Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 85.37% [15]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of three investment strategies: Low Price Enhancement, Improved Dual Low, and High Price High Elasticity, which recorded returns of 1.3%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively during the last period, outperforming the benchmark return of 0.3% [1] - Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 17.4%, 28.2%, and 52.2%, with cumulative excess returns of 0.3%, 11.2%, and 35.2% compared to the benchmark return of 17.0% [1] - The equity market experienced fluctuations, with the Wind All A and CSI Convertible Bonds rising by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a resurgence of low volatility strategies [1] Low Price Enhancement Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Jinggong Convertible Bond (Construction Decoration), Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank), and Yangfeng Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) among others [2] - The adjustment rationale is based on the strong performance of the low price index (1.4%) and the resurgence of low volatility strategies, with a focus on stable or improving performance and reasonable premium rates [3] Improved Dual Low Strategy - The latest holdings feature new entries like Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank) and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond (Environmental Protection) [4] - Adjustments were made due to the upward movement of the dual low index (0.4%), with a focus on stocks with improved performance or stable operations while avoiding those with high redemption progress [5] High Price High Elasticity Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Wankai Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) and Shuiyang Convertible Bond (Beauty Care) [6] - The strategy's adjustments were influenced by the decline in high price index returns (-1.5%) and the need to manage redemption risks while maintaining a balanced industry allocation [7]

Core Insights - The Biotech Index (970038) closed at 2279.35 points, up 0.77%, with a trading volume of 28.709 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.85% [1] - Among the index constituents, 41 stocks rose, with Hualan Vaccine leading at a 17.88% increase, while 8 stocks fell, with Deep Technology leading the decline at 6.38% [1] Index Performance - The Biotech Index saw a net inflow of 140 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 210 million yuan, and there was a net outflow of 350 million yuan from speculative funds [1] Top Constituents - The top ten constituents of the Biotech Index include: - Mindray Medical (sz300760) with a weight of 13.81%, latest price at 215.04, and a decrease of 0.76% [1] - Changchun High-tech (sz000661) with a weight of 5.41%, latest price at 112.26, and a decrease of 2.55% [1] - Kanglong Chemical (sz300759) with a weight of 4.66%, latest price at 33.51, and an increase of 1.12% [1] - Other notable constituents include Muyuans (sz002714) and Aimeike (sz300896) with respective weights of 3.66% and 3.44% [1] Capital Flow Details - Detailed capital flow for key stocks includes: - Mindray Medical saw a net inflow of 26.2 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Muyuans had a net inflow of 203 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Hualan Vaccine experienced a net inflow of 74.8 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 2.88% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 4.73% [4] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 960.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% week-on-week, while the Shenzhen market saw an increase to 1206.6 billion yuan, up 2.7% [4] Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, 28 saw an increase while 3 experienced a decline [5] - The top three performing industries were Communication, Electronics, and Power Equipment, while the worst performers were Food & Beverage, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry & Fishery, and Beauty & Personal Care [5] Financing and Margin Trading - As of October 24, the total margin trading balance in the market increased by 27.8 billion yuan to 2,457.2 billion yuan [5] - The financing balance rose by 24.4 billion yuan to 2,439.8 billion yuan, while the margin balance increased by 1.74 billion yuan to 174 billion yuan [5] Net Buying Trends - The net buying amounts in the electronic, communication, and non-bank financial sectors were the highest [6] - The top ten stocks by net financing purchases included Zhongji Xuchuang (294.15 million yuan), Cambricon Technologies (276.56 million yuan), and Shenghong Technology (251.51 million yuan) [10] ETF Performance - The top ten ETFs by net financing purchases included GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (3.13 million yuan) and Fuguo Zhongdai 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF (2.31 million yuan) [11] Market Sentiment - The recent "14th Five-Year Plan" has provided clearer guidance for domestic economic restructuring, positively impacting market confidence [15] - The market has shown signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high during the recent rebound [15]

Core Insights - The latest financing balance of the ChiNext market is 534.52 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 5.10 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in market financing activity [1][2] Financing Balance Overview - The total margin balance for ChiNext stocks reached 536.46 billion yuan, increasing by 5.18 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking four consecutive days of growth [1] - Among the 471 stocks with increased financing balances, 25 stocks saw an increase of over 10%, with the largest increase being 63.85% for Tongguan Copper Foil, which reached a financing balance of 637 million yuan [1][3] Market Performance of Stocks - Stocks with financing balance increases of over 10% averaged a rise of 4.72% on the same day, with notable performers including Sunshine Power and Tongguan Copper Foil, which rose by 15.44% and 14.59% respectively [2] - Conversely, stocks with significant declines included Kaili Medical and Shunwang Technology, which fell by 11.39% and 5.80% respectively [2] Major Stocks with Increased Financing Balances - Key stocks with notable financing balance increases include: - Tongguan Copper Foil: 637 million yuan, +63.85%, closing at 38.09 yuan, +14.59% [3] - Hengshuai Co., Ltd.: 275 million yuan, +37.35%, closing at 125.27 yuan, +8.44% [3] - Keda Guokai: 765 million yuan, +30.00%, closing at 41.79 yuan, +12.64% [3] Stocks with Decreased Financing Balances - A total of 475 stocks experienced a decrease in financing balances, with 16 stocks seeing declines of over 10%. The largest decrease was for Hualv Biological, which fell by 17.83% to 50.70 million yuan [4][5] - Other notable declines included: - Green Island Wind: -14.36%, closing at 42.80 yuan [4] - Jinzong Co., Ltd.: -13.27%, closing at 27.13 yuan [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - From October 19 to October 25, 2025, the convertible bond market recovered with the warming of the stock market. In the short term, it is still mainly characterized by structural rotation, with obvious style differentiation. The growth sector performed relatively strongly, with active trading in the power equipment and electronics sectors. Low - price and short - duration individual bonds showed prominent elasticity. The valuation of medium - and low - price varieties was slightly compressed, and the implied volatility rebounded slightly but remained high. The market is in a stage of shock and momentum accumulation, and investors can appropriately participate in trading opportunities in the rotation rhythm by combining the fundamentals and valuation of the underlying stocks. The supply in the primary market is stable, and clause games remain an important variable in the market [2][6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Confidence and Overall Situation - Since the end of August, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has entered a shock consolidation stage. The current market's expectation of the future has improved marginally, and some varieties show signs of market price repair. The market is in a shock and momentum - accumulating stage, and the style has not yet formed a dominant trend [9]. - The current implied volatility of the convertible bond market has a slight upward trend, while the 30 - day historical volatility of the Wind All - A Index is declining, indicating that investors' expectations of the future are being repaired, and the market may be accumulating power for a new round of trend - based market [15]. 3.2 A - share Market Performance - During the week, the A - share market rebounded as a whole, with major stock indexes generally rising. The ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 performed relatively prominently. The outflow of main funds converged, and trading volume shrank, reflecting that market sentiment tended to be cautious. Structurally, the technology - growth sector continued to be strong, with communication, electronics, and media leading the gains, while the consumer sector performed relatively weakly. The electronics sector still had a high trading volume ratio, indicating that the technology direction still attracted capital attention. However, the valuation and congestion of some sectors are at a high level, and short - term callback pressure and capital game rhythm need to be noted [9]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Market Performance - During the week, the convertible bond market strengthened with the recovery of the equity market, and the small - cap style had better elasticity. The valuation structure was slightly stretched, and the valuation of medium - and low - market - price convertible bonds was slightly compressed, reflecting the strong performance of the underlying stocks. The implied volatility rebounded slightly and remained at a high level, and the median market price fluctuated strongly, indicating the repair of market expectations. In terms of industries, the growth direction led the gains, and trading was concentrated in sectors such as power equipment and electronics. Individual bonds generally rose, and some short - duration varieties had high gains, showing structural differentiation [9]. 3.4 Primary Market Supply - During the week, the supply in the primary market remained stable. One new convertible bond was listed, and 11 companies updated their issuance plans, with the overall issuance progress being steady [9]. 3.5 Clause Games - In terms of downward revisions, 5 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 6 announced no downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. In terms of redemptions, 6 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 3 announced no early redemptions, and 2 announced early redemptions. Clause events were active, and clause games remained the focus of market attention [9].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Stock Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model is based on the comprehensive judgment of economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - **Construction Process**: - Construct timing factors from two core dimensions: economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - Factors include PMI YoY smoothed value, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount cumulative YoY, CPI YoY smoothed value, and new medium and long-term loans cumulative value YoY[19] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using CSI 800 total return as the benchmark[19] - **Evaluation**: The model effectively captures stock market cycles, avoiding downturns[21] 2. Model Name: Bond Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model analyzes from the perspective of monetary liquidity supply and demand[23] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include DR007, SHIBOR, and social financing scale stock YoY smoothed value[24] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if short-term average < long-term average} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using ChinaBond Treasury Total Net Price Index as the benchmark[24] - **Evaluation**: The model captures bond market trends, minimizing drawdowns[25] 3. Model Name: All-Weather Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The model adjusts risk budgets for different assets based on timing signals[17] - **Construction Process**: - Use a risk parity model to allocate risk contributions of assets[30] - Adjust risk budgets based on stock and bond timing signals[32] - Optimize the model: $$ \begin{array}{c} \min \sum_{i=1}^{N} \left( RC_i - b_i \sigma_p \right)^2 \\ \text{s.t.} \sum_{i=1}^{N} \omega_i = 1 \\ 0 \leq \omega_i \leq 1 \end{array} $$ - Backtest using a combination of CSI 800, ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index, CSI Convertible Bond Index, S&P 500 ETF, and AAA Credit Bonds[31] - **Evaluation**: The strategy provides higher absolute returns while controlling risk[38] Model Backtest Results Stock Timing Model - Annualized Return: 14.1%[21] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.4%[21] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.7%[21] - Monthly Win Rate: 56.7%[21] Bond Timing Model - Annualized Return: 2.3%[25] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Monthly Win Rate: 68.3%[25] All-Weather Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.1%[38] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.1%[38] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.0%[38] - Maximum Drawdown: 2.6%[38] - Sharpe Ratio: 2.04[38] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value-Growth Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic recovery, liquidity, and market sentiment[47] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, M2 YoY smoothed value, social financing YoY smoothed value, medium and long-term loan growth YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[48] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the National Growth Index and National Value Index[48] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of value and growth styles[47] 2. Factor Name: Size Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic prosperity, liquidity, and market sentiment[55] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, gold daily return rate, government bond yield, credit spread, M1 YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[56] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the CSI 300 Index and CSI 1000 Index[57] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of large-cap and small-cap styles[55] Factor Backtest Results Value-Growth Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[51] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.7%[51] - Excess Annualized Return: 7.5%[51] - Monthly Win Rate: 60.2%[51] Size Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[59] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 0.1%[59] - Excess Annualized Return: 9.0%[59] - Monthly Win Rate: 58.3%[59] Industry Rotation Solution 1. Factor Name: Macro Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on the second-order changes in economic growth and liquidity[67] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include PMI, social financing scale, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, CPI, M2 growth rate, 10-year government bond yield, and credit spread[70] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[73] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the marginal inflection points of macro trends[67] 2. Factor Name: Fundamental Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on historical prosperity, prosperity changes, and prosperity expectations[79] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry component stock median, industry profitability, and industry consensus profit expectations[79] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[82] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the core of industry prosperity[79] 3. Factor Name: Technical Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on index momentum, leading stock momentum, and K-line patterns[87] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry index relative excess return IR, leading stock sharp ratio, and K-line pattern score[89] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[96] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the technical evaluation of industry trends[87] 4. Factor Name: Crowding Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on financing inflows, turnover rate, and transaction proportion[100] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry financing buy amount, industry turnover rate, and industry transaction amount proportion[101] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[104] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the crowding level of industries[100] Industry Rotation Backtest Results Macro Factor - Annualized Return: 42.9%[73] - Benchmark Annualized Return: -22.8%[73] - Excess Annualized Return: 65.7%[73] Fundamental Factor - Annualized Return: 11.3%[85] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[85] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.5%[85] - IC Mean: 8.2%[85] Technical Factor - Annualized Return: 9.7%[97] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[97] - Excess Annualized Return: 6.9%[97] - IC Mean: 8.2%[97] Crowding Factor - Annualized Return: -2.9

Core Insights - The Biotech Economy Index (970038) closed at 2298.38 points, up 0.92%, with a trading volume of 24.11 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.39% [1] - Among the index constituents, 27 stocks rose while 22 fell, with Tigermed leading the gainers at 11.09% and Kaili Medical leading the decliners at 11.39% [1] Index Performance - The Biotech Economy Index had a net inflow of 169 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of approximately 79.92 million yuan [1][2] - The top ten constituents of the Biotech Economy Index include: - Mindray Medical (13.81% weight, latest price 222.83 yuan, market cap 270.17 billion yuan) [1] - Changchun High-tech (5.41% weight, latest price 117.55 yuan, market cap 47.95 billion yuan) [1] - Kanglong Chemical (4.66% weight, latest price 34.05 yuan, market cap 60.55 billion yuan) [1] - Tigermed (4.23% weight, latest price 59.48 yuan, market cap 51.21 billion yuan) [1] - Other notable constituents include Deep Technology, Muyuan Foods, and Aimeike [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The capital flow details indicate that Deep Technology had a net inflow of 201 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a significant outflow of 222 million yuan [2] - Kanglong Chemical and Tigermed also experienced net inflows from institutional investors, but faced outflows from retail investors [2] - Overall, the data suggests a mixed sentiment among different investor classes within the Biotech Economy Index [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% with a trading volume of 1,078.52 million shares and a transaction value of 18,285.62 billion yuan, representing a 2.13% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - **Electric Power Equipment**: Increased by 4.00% with a transaction value of 2,463.73 billion yuan, up 33.06% from the previous day, led by Arctech with a rise of 19.97% [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Rose by 3.07% with a transaction value of 1,125.00 billion yuan, down 4.62% from the previous day, with Chang Aluminum leading at 10.08% [1] - **Non-bank Financials**: Gained 1.20% with a transaction value of 808.22 billion yuan, up 54.88% from the previous day, led by State Grid Yingda at 9.95% [1] Declining Sectors - The sectors with the largest declines included: - **Banking**: Decreased by 1.56% with a transaction value of 297.44 billion yuan, up 7.80% from the previous day, with Chengdu Bank falling by 5.36% [2] - **Food and Beverage**: Fell by 0.78% with a transaction value of 206.60 billion yuan, up 7.50% from the previous day, led by Guyue Longshan at -4.04% [2] - **Light Industry Manufacturing**: Decreased by 0.53% with a transaction value of 153.13 billion yuan, down 7.44% from the previous day, with Longzhu Technology dropping by 13.16% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the growth potential in various sectors, particularly in food and beverage, beauty, and traditional consumer goods transitioning to new consumption models [2][3]. - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a turning point as supply and demand clear up, focusing on growth as the main theme [2]. - The retail and service sectors are undergoing active transformation, with new consumption models showing high levels of prosperity [3]. Group 2 - The home appliance industry is anticipated to grow through overseas expansion, while domestic demand is expected to recover gradually [3]. - The light industry is focusing on growth consumption and cyclical value, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [3]. - The textile and apparel sector is analyzing consumer changes to uncover structural opportunities [3]. - The agriculture sector is highlighted for its potential in the pet industry and various promising aspects in breeding and planting [3].