合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12240 | 80 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 19529 | -958 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | -80 | -5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 6680 | -300 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 12500 | -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 12500 | -50 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 12500 | 0 | 12600 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | 260 65.41 | 东(日,元/吨) -1 ...

下 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/19 | | | 指标 | 4/18 | 5/9 | 5/12 | 5/13 | 5/16 | 日度变化 | 間度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR2505收盘价 | 11025 | 11450 | 11820 | 12205 | 12160 | -45 | 710 | | | | BR2505持仓量 | 16263 | 24120 | 25672 | 26422 | 20487 | -2935 | -3633 | | | ETE | BR2505成交量 | 123772 | 110734 | 189461 | 219791 | 134239 | -85552 | 23505 | | | | 仓単数量 | 15930 | 11630 | 11570 | 11540 | 11340 | -200 | -290 | | | | 虚实比 | 5.10 | 10.37 | 11.09 | 11.45 | 9.03 | -2 | -1 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint venture between Arlanxeo and Taiwan Synthetic Rubber has successfully completed the relocation and expansion of its nitrile rubber (NBR) factory in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, enhancing production capacity to 40,000 tons per year to meet the growing demand in the Chinese market and strengthen global supply [1][4]. Group 1: Joint Venture and Factory Expansion - The new factory will produce a wider range of high-quality nitrile rubber products, with an annual design capacity of 40,000 tons [1]. - The joint venture, established in 2010, is equally owned by Arlanxeo and Taiwan Synthetic Rubber, each holding 50% of the shares [4]. - The relocation of the factory was announced in December 2021 to comply with local government initiatives for ecological protection along the Yangtze River [4]. Group 2: Management Statements - Arlanxeo's CEO, Shambhulin, emphasized the commitment to strategic growth in China and sustainable development in the synthetic rubber industry, highlighting the factory's role in meeting customer demands with high-quality products [3]. - Taiwan Synthetic Rubber's CEO, Tsai Wei-Chiang, expressed confidence in the long-term development of the new factory and the Chinese chemical market, aiming for sustainable growth in the nitrile rubber sector [4]. Group 3: Product Offerings and Market Position - The joint venture will continue to produce Krynac® and Taipol® series products while introducing the Perbunan® brand, which features rapid vulcanization properties suitable for critical sectors such as automotive, aerospace, oil and gas, and food contact materials [4]. - The new product offerings are expected to enhance the company's market competitiveness in the synthetic rubber industry [4]. Group 4: Company Background - Arlanxeo is a leading global supplier of synthetic rubber and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Saudi Aramco, with over 10 production sites across 8 countries and 4 technical centers worldwide [5]. - Arlanxeo has been operating in China since August 2016, with its headquarters in Changzhou and production bases in Changzhou and Nantong [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] - Date: May 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR2505 Contract Data - Closing Price: On May 15, it was 12,260, with a daily change of 440 and an interval change of 890 [3] - Position Volume: On May 15, it was 22,783, with a daily change of -2,889 and an interval change of -1,251 [3] - Trading Volume: On May 15, it was 126,864, with a daily change of -62,597 and an interval change of 19,910 [3] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On May 15, it was 11,680, with a daily change of 110 and an interval change of -10 [3] - Virtual - Physical Ratio: On May 15, it was 9.75, with a daily change of -1 and an interval change of -1 [3] Group 3: BR Basis and Spread Data - Basis (Cis - BR): On May 15, it was -135, with a daily change of -115 and an interval change of -215 [3] - Basis (Styrene - Butadiene - BR): On May 15, it was 265, with a daily change of -165 and an interval change of -465 [3] - Month Spread (03 - 04): On May 15, it was 130, with a daily change of 150 and an interval change of 50 [3] - Month Spread (04 - 05): On May 15, it was -45, with a daily change of 100 and an interval change of 20 [3] Group 4: BR Spot and Market Price Data - Shandong Market Price: On May 15, it was 13,650, with a daily change of 1,800 and an interval change of 2,050 [3] - Zhejiang Chuanhua Market Price: On May 15, it was 13,500, with a daily change of 1,700 and an interval change of 2,050 [3] - Qilu Factory Price: On May 15, it was 13,700, with a daily change of 1,800 and an interval change of 2,000 [3] - CFR Northeast Asia: On May 15, it was 1,750, with a daily change of 300 and an interval change of 300 [3] - CFR Southeast Asia: On May 15, it was 2,000, with a daily change of 225 and an interval change of 200 [3] - FOB China: On May 15, it was 1,750, with a daily change of 225 and an interval change of 225 [3] Group 5: BR Processing and Import - Export Data - Spot Processing Profit: On May 15, it was 179, with a daily change of 729 and an interval change of 316 [3] - Futures Processing Profit: On May 15, it was 164, with a daily change of 744 and an interval change of 531 [3] - Import Profit: On May 15, it was -1,214, with a daily change of -664 and an interval change of -414 [3] - Export Profit: On May 15, it was 1,981, with a daily change of 78 and an interval change of -320 [3] Group 6: BD Price and Profit Data - Shandong Market Price: On May 15, it was 11,050, with a daily change of 1,050 and an interval change of 1,700 [3] - Jiangsu Market Price: On May 15, it was 11,000, with a daily change of 1,300 and an interval change of 1,900 [3] - Yangzi Factory Price: On May 15, it was 11,100, with a daily change of 1,500 and an interval change of 2,000 [3] - CFR China: On May 15, it was 11,082, with a daily change of 2,370 and an interval change of 2,742 [3] - Carbon Four Extraction Profit: On May 15, it was 3,459, with a daily change of 282 and an interval change of 1,372 [3] - Butene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit: On May 15, it was 816, with a daily change of -70 and an interval change of 670 [3] - Import Profit: On May 15, it was -139, with a daily change of -1,116 and an interval change of -884 [3] - Export Profit: On May 15, it was -576, with a daily change of 1,077 and an interval change of 772 [3] Group 7: Downstream Profit Data - Cis - Butadiene Production Profit: On May 15, it was 179, with a daily change of 729 and an interval change of 316 [3] - Styrene - Butadiene Production Profit: On May 15, it was 1,075, with a daily change of 500 and an interval change of 325 [3] - ABS Production Profit: On May 15, it was 418, with a daily change of 683 and an interval change of -67 [3] - SBS Production Profit (791 - H): On May 15, it was 330, with a daily change of 60 and an interval change of -210 [3] Group 8: Variety Spread Data - RU - BR: On May 15, it was 3,340, with a daily change of 135 and an interval change of 0 [3] - NR - BR: On May 15, it was 1,085, with a daily change of 82 and an interval change of -80 [3] - Thai Mixed - Cis: On May 15, it was 3,000, with a daily change of 150 and an interval change of 220 [3] - 3L - Styrene - Butadiene: On May 15, it was 3,450, with a daily change of -300 and an interval change of -200 [3] - Standard - Non - Standard Price Difference of Cis: On May 15, it was 250, with a daily change of 50 and an interval change of -50 [3] - Styrene - Butadiene 1502 - 1712: On May 15, it was 1,700, with a daily change of 650 and an interval change of 650 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some plants, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly last week, and some enterprises had 2 - 5 days of maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 12,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 22,783, a decrease of 3,722. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 7,320 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton; in Shanghai is 12,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 66.09 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.54 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 590 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 US dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China butadiene price is 1070 US dollars/ton. WTI crude oil is 63.15 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.52 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 147,800 tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 69.35%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,900 tons, an increase of 400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, unchanged. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 74.74%, an increase of 2.86 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 173 yuan/ton, unchanged. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 33,600 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 27,650 tons, an increase of 800 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 42.52 days, a decrease of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.09 days, a decrease of 0.82 days [2] Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period (May 7, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 46.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.98 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 32.14 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 41.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.89 percentage points. Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance during the period, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, and most maintenance enterprises gradually resumed production around May 6. In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 19% decrease from March and a 9.4% increase from 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report, released on May 15, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures - BR2505 closing price on May 14 was 12,380, with a daily change of 930 and an interval change of 1,005 compared to April 16 [3] - BR2505 open interest on May 14 was 26,505, with a daily change of 2,385 and an interval change of 1,401 [3] - BR2505 trading volume on May 14 (at 15:11) was 211,375, with a daily change of 100,641 and an interval change of 89,872 [3] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts on May 14 was 11,480, with a daily change of -150 and an interval change of -350 [3] Ratios - The virtual - to - real ratio on May 14 was 11.54, with a daily change of 7 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis (cis - butadiene - BR) on May 14 was - 135, with a daily change of - 235 and an interval change of - 210 [3] - The basis (styrene - butadiene - BR) on May 14 was 265, with a daily change of - 485 and an interval change of - 460 [3] - The monthly spread (03 - 04) on May 14 was 130, with a daily change of 0 [3] - The monthly spread (04 - 05) on May 14 was - 45, with a daily change of 5 [3] Spot Prices - Shandong market price on May 14 was 13,650, with a daily change of 1,950 and an interval change of 2,050 [3] - Zhejiang Transfar market price on May 14 was 13,500, with a daily change of 1,950 and an interval change of 2,050 [3] - Qilu ex - factory price on May 14 was 13,700, with a daily change of 2,000 and an interval change of 2,000 [3] International Prices - CFR Northeast Asia on May 14 was 1,750, with a daily change of 300 and an interval change of 300 [3] - CFR Southeast Asia on May 14 was 2,000, with a daily change of 225 and an interval change of 200 [3] - FOB China on May 14 was 1,750, with a daily change of 225 and an interval change of 225 [3] Processing and Trade Profits - Spot processing profit on May 14 was 179, with a daily change of 522 and an interval change of 367 [3] - Futures processing profit on May 14 was 164, with a daily change of 757 and an interval change of 577 [3] - Import profit on May 14 was - 1,214, with a daily change of - 464 and an interval change of - 414 [3] - Export profit on May 14 was 1,981, with a daily change of - 96 and an interval change of - 320 [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot Prices - Shandong market price on May 14 was 11,050, with a daily change of 1,400 and an interval change of 1,650 [3] - Jiangsu market price on May 14 was 11,000, with a daily change of 1,650 and an interval change of 1,800 [3] - Yangzi ex - factory price on May 14 was 11,100, with a daily change of 1,800 and an interval change of 2,000 [3] - CFR China on May 14 was 11,082 (with N/A for daily change and an interval change of 2,783) [3] Processing Profits - Carbon four extraction profit on May 14 was 3,459, with a daily change of 929 and an interval change of 1,313 [3] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on May 14 was 816, with a daily change of 280 and an interval change of 710 [3] Trade Profits - Import profit on May 14 was - 139 (with N/A for daily change and an interval change of - 1,024) [3] - Export profit on May 14 was - 576 (with N/A for daily change and an interval change of 859) [3] Group 4: Downstream Product Profits - Cis - butadiene production profit on May 14 was 179, with a daily change of 522 and an interval change of 367 [3] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on May 14 was 1,075, with a daily change of 275 and an interval change of 300 [3] - ABS production profit on May 14 was 418 (with N/A for daily change and an interval change of - 170) [3] - SBS production profit (791 - H) on May 14 was 330, with a daily change of - 160 and an interval change of - 240 [3] Group 5: Price Spreads Inter - product Spreads - RU - BR on May 14 was 3,340, with a daily change of 170 and an interval change of - 95 [3] - NR - BR on May 14 was 1,085, with a daily change of 120 and an interval change of - 115 [3] - Thai mixed - cis - butadiene on May 14 was 3,000, with a daily change of 370 and an interval change of 200 [3] - 3L - styrene - butadiene on May 14 was 3,450, with a daily change of - 50 and an interval change of - 300 [3] - Cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread on May 14 was 250, with a daily change of - 50 and an interval change of - 50 [3] Intra - product Spreads - Styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 on May 14 was 1,700, with a daily change of 650 and an interval change of 650 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, some private cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, supply will continue to increase, and the pressure on the spot market to sell goods remains high. It is expected that the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises will continue to increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly month - on - month. Some enterprises had 2 - 5 days of maintenance arrangements, which had a great impact on the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. [2] - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 26,505, with a month - on - month increase of 83. [2] - The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 7,120 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 tons. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical was in the range of 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 - 350 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber was 420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 525 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was 66.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.67 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 63.67 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.72 US dollars/barrel. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6.5 US dollars/ton. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 600 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, with no month - on - month change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.35%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene was 36,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 48.5%, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 74.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.86 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 173 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 800 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 5,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 42.52 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days. [2] Industry News - As of May 8, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.01%. During the May Day holiday, the inventory of some production enterprises increased, and some traders replenished their stocks moderately, but the pressure to sell goods after the holiday remained. [2] - As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 46.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.98 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 32.14 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.89 percentage points. Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, and most enterprises resumed production around May 6. [2]

| | | 指标 | 4/14 | 5/6 | 5/8 | 5/9 | 5/12 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR2505收盘价 | 11675 | 11315 | 11370 | 11450 | 11820 | 370 | રે જેવા | | | | BR2505持仓量 | 20387 | 25743 | 24034 | 24120 | 25672 | 1 255 | -71 | | | 居 | BR2505成交量 | 73041 | 113965 | 106954 | 110734 | 189461 | 78727 | 75496 | | | | 仓单数量 | 16580 | 11640 | 11690 | 11630 | 11570 | -60 | -70 | | | | 虚实比 | 6.15 | 11.06 | 10.28 | 10.37 | 11.09 | | 0 | | | | 基差(顺丁-BR) | 225 | 85 | 80 | 100 | -135 ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-12 涨，注意风险控制。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 370 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11820 | | 25672 | 1552 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) -45 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -145 | | 7210 | -60 ...

ljis 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1 000 0 -1000 -2000 2020 2021 - 2022 - 2024 2023 2025 BD 卫星化学丁二烯纸货结构 东明石化丁二烯竞拍情况 1500 14000 13000 - 800 700 13000 1000 12000 600 12000 500 500 11000 11000 400 0 10000 10000 300 -500 200 9000 9000 100 -1000 8000 8000 2024/12/18 2025/1/8 025/2/19 025/4/16 025/1/1: 025/3/12 025/2/12 025/3/19 025/4/ 025/4/30 2025/5/" 025/1/2 2025/2/. )25/2/2 025/3/ 025/3/2 2025/1/ 025/4/ 025/4/2 025/1/2 024/12/2 025/5/1 rsis -521 卫星近月(约15d) -- 卫星现货 卫星远月(约45d) 现货-近月 现货-远月 东明成交量 东明底价 东明成交 ...