Report Overview - **Report Date**: September 16, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Coke Daily Report - **Research Team**: Black Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the coke market, including prices, production, inventory, and market trends. It provides data on various coke types, regions, and market indicators to help investors understand the current state of the coke industry. Detailed Summary Coke Prices - **Regional Prices**: The prices of different types of coke vary by region. For example, the latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1427.78 yuan, with a daily change of - 54.61 yuan, a weekly change of - 108.16 yuan, and a monthly change of - 53.55 yuan, showing a year - on - year decrease of 11.51%. Other regions like Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia also have their own price levels and changes [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The futures prices of coke also show different trends. The latest price of the 05 contract is 1809 yuan, with a daily increase of 59.50 yuan, a weekly increase of 65.00 yuan, and a monthly decrease of 8.50 yuan, showing a year - on - year decrease of 4.69%. The 09 contract has a significant increase, with a daily increase of 345.00 yuan [2]. Production and Capacity Utilization - **Blast Furnace and Iron Water**: The blast furnace operating rate is 90.18%, with a weekly increase of 4.39 and a year - on - year increase of 7.87%. The average daily iron water output is 240.55 thousand tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.69% [2]. - **Coke Production**: The coke daily output is 51.92 thousand tons, with a weekly increase of 0.51 thousand tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.96%. The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, with a weekly decrease of 0.09 and a year - on - year increase of 4.43% [2]. Inventory - **Coke Inventories**: Coking plant inventory is 43.91 thousand tons, with a weekly increase of 3.20 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.99%. Port inventory is 205.11 thousand tons, with a weekly increase of 0.05 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. Steel mill inventory is 633.29 thousand tons, with a weekly increase of 9.58 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.50%. The steel mill inventory days are 11.29 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.42 days and a year - on - year increase of 4.34% [2]. Market Spreads - **Futures Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 144.50 yuan, with a daily decrease of 9.00 yuan, a weekly decrease of 16.00 yuan, and a year - on - year decrease of 87.00 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread is - 36.00 yuan, with a significant daily decrease of 285.50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The 05 basis is - 80.20 yuan, with a daily decrease of 102.09 yuan, a weekly decrease of 107.59 yuan, and a year - on - year decrease of 105.35 yuan. The 09 basis is - 116.20 yuan, with a large daily decrease of 387.59 yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson, Fu Linghui, announced that recent efforts to promote industry self-discipline and resist disorderly competition have shown gradual effects, particularly in key industries [1] Group 1: Industry Price Changes - In August, the ex-factory prices in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling industries, and coal mining and washing industries narrowed by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [1] - The price decline in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, as well as new energy vehicle manufacturing, saw year-on-year reductions narrow by 2.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The downward impact of these five industries on the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that recent industry self-regulation measures have shown positive effects, leading to a reduction in price declines in certain sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In August, the ex-factory prices in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, and coal mining and washing industries narrowed their decline by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [1] - The price decline in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, as well as in new energy vehicle manufacturing, decreased year-on-year by 2.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The impact of these five industries on the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) has reduced by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in August 2025 shows stability and progress, with macro policies effectively supporting high-quality development despite external uncertainties and risks [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Month-on-month, the PPI remained flat, ending an eight-month streak of negative growth [5][6]. - The PPI's year-on-year decline was influenced by improved market competition order, with significant price reductions in industries such as coal processing and black metal smelting, which saw price decreases narrow by 3.2% to 10.3% [6][7]. Group 2: Factors Influencing PPI - The optimization of market competition order has been a key factor, with government initiatives promoting industry self-discipline and curbing disorderly competition, leading to a reduced downward impact on PPI from key industries [6][7]. - Demand from emerging industries has strengthened, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing rising by 1.1%, and smart wearable devices increasing by 1.6% year-on-year [6][7]. - Consumption-boosting policies have shown positive effects, with prices in certain consumer goods sectors, such as arts and crafts, increasing by 13% year-on-year, indicating a rise in demand for upgraded products [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the positive changes, the PPI remains in a declining range, which poses challenges for industrial enterprises. Future efforts should focus on expanding domestic demand and further promoting a unified national market to stabilize industrial prices [7].

Group 1 - In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month-on-month change shifted from a decrease of 0.2% to flat, ending an eight-month negative growth trend [1] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to macro policy effectiveness, the deepening of the national unified market construction, optimization of enterprise competition order, and rapid growth of new driving forces [1][2] - The optimization of market competition order has been a significant factor, with key industries such as coal processing and black metal smelting seeing price reductions narrowing by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [2] Group 2 - Demand from emerging industries has strengthened, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing manufacturing increasing by 1.1%, and shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing prices rising by 0.9% [2] - Consumption-boosting policies have shown effects, with prices in categories such as arts and crafts manufacturing increasing by 13% year-on-year, and sports equipment prices rising by 4.7% [3] - Despite the positive changes, PPI remains in a declining range, which is unfavorable for industrial enterprise operations, indicating a need for further expansion of domestic demand and regulation of competition [3]

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/15 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1482.39 | 0.00 | -53.55 | 1.06 | -8.13% 高炉开工率 | 90.18 | | 4.39 | -0.04 | 7.87% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1725.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -4.43% 铁水日均产量 | 240.55 | | 11.71 | -0.11 | 7.69% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -10.03% 盘面05 | 1749.5 | 1.00 | 16.00 | -63.50 | -4.71% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 0.00 | -9.81% 盘面09 | 1500 | -12.50 ...

Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [3] - The decline in overall CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower seasonal food price increases, with food prices down 4.3% year-on-year [2][3] - Non-food prices rose by 0.5%, contributing approximately 0.43 percentage points to the CPI year-on-year increase [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, the first narrowing since March [5] - The PPI's month-on-month change shifted from a 0.2% decline to flat, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain sectors [4][5] - Prices in coal processing, black metal smelting, and other industries showed reduced year-on-year declines, contributing to the overall narrowing of the PPI decline [5][6]

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Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI recorded a year-on-year decrease of -0.4%, influenced by a high comparison base from the previous year and lower food price increases than seasonal levels[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, marking a two-and-a-half-year high, indicating structural inflation despite overall CPI decline[1][15] - Food prices significantly dragged down the CPI, with an annual decline of 4.3%, contributing approximately 0.51 percentage points to the overall CPI drop[1][14] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year in August, an improvement from July's -3.6%, signaling a potential easing of industrial deflation pressures[2][18] - Month-on-month, the PPI remained flat, ending an eight-month downward trend, with some industrial prices showing signs of recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics[2][18] - The coal processing price increased by 9.7%, while domestic oil extraction prices decreased by 1.4%, reflecting mixed trends across different sectors[2][21] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Future PPI declines are expected to narrow due to low base effects and ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at optimizing market competition[2][22] - The recovery of the real estate market remains slow, posing risks to demand for industrial products and potentially affecting PPI recovery[2][22] - Overall, PPI recovery will depend on domestic demand restoration and changes in the international economic environment[2][22]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) in August showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, primarily due to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower seasonal food price increases [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1] - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - In August, pork prices in Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market averaged 16.87 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 7.1% from July and 31.37% from the same period last year [3] - The decline in pork prices is attributed to a slight oversupply of live pigs and increased market supply, reaching a five-year high in daily average listings [3] - Seasonal fruits also experienced price declines due to an overlap in supply from summer fruits and new harvests of apples and pears [8] Group 3 - Industry experts predict that pork prices will stabilize in September due to factors such as school stocking and cooler weather, with prices expected to rise by only 1%-3% compared to August [5]