Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 4.51% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 9.39 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 0.40%, totaling 2.51 billion yuan. This growth is attributed to the stabilization of domestic engineering machinery, increased market share in hydraulic pumps and valves for excavators, continuous expansion in non-engineering machinery products, and ongoing development in overseas markets [1][2]. - The company has made significant progress in its diversification strategy, with domestic and international revenues of 7.25 billion yuan and 2.07 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3.61% and 7.61%. The international revenue now accounts for 22.2% of total revenue, up by 0.6 percentage points [2]. - The linear actuator project is advancing steadily, with multiple products developed and entering mass production in 2024, indicating potential for future growth [2]. Financial Summary - The company's gross margin is 42.83% and net margin is 26.72% for 2024, with gross margin improving due to product structure optimization, while net margin slightly decreased due to increased expenses [1]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.79 billion yuan, 3.23 billion yuan, and 3.80 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36, 31, and 26 [3][4]. - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 8.99 billion yuan (2023), 9.39 billion yuan (2024), 10.51 billion yuan (2025E), 11.78 billion yuan (2026E), 13.45 billion yuan (2027E) - Net Profit: 2.50 billion yuan (2023), 2.51 billion yuan (2024), 2.79 billion yuan (2025E), 3.23 billion yuan (2026E), 3.80 billion yuan (2027E) [4][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a positive cycle driven by both domestic and overseas demand, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability expected in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to boost exports, with a notable increase in overseas market share and a recovery in the domestic cycle anticipated [4][5] Revenue Growth - In 2024, the total revenue of the five major engineering machinery manufacturers reached 259.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3% [6][11] - In Q1 2025, the total revenue reached 72.6 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [6][11] Profitability Improvement - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the five major manufacturers in 2024 was 17.9 billion, up 19% year-on-year [24] - In Q1 2025, the net profit reached 6.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 164% [24] Export Growth - In April 2025, export sales reached 9,595 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with the "Belt and Road" region accounting for 64% of the total export value in Q1 2025, up 15% year-on-year [4][5] Domestic Market Recovery - Domestic sales in April 2025 reached 12,547 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, indicating a recovery in the domestic cycle [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Shantui, and others, while also paying attention to companies like Noli [5] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow for the five major manufacturers increased by 75% in 2024 and by 16% in Q1 2025, indicating improved operational quality [59][62] - The asset-liability ratio for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 57%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively [65]

Core Insights - The "CCTV Finance Excavator Index" indicates steady progress in infrastructure construction in China during April, with a notable increase in road construction and high operating rates for road equipment [1] Group 1: Overall Construction Activity - In April, 15 provinces in China reported a month-on-month increase in comprehensive operating rates, with six provinces showing an increase of over 10% [6] - The comprehensive operating rate in the Northeast region reached 61.13%, leading the country, with excavator operating rates at 69.25% [28] - The comprehensive operating rate in the Central region was 55.62%, with pile-driving equipment operating rates at 42.77%, the highest in the nation [29] Group 2: Regional Highlights - The Western region's port equipment operating rate was 43.04%, the highest among all regions, reflecting a 1.34% month-on-month increase [12][27] - The Eastern region's comprehensive operating rate was 47.91%, with concrete equipment operating rates at 47.20%, also the highest in its category [32] - In April, the Central region's equipment manufacturing sector accelerated due to advancements in high-tech industries like semiconductors and new energy vehicles [29] Group 3: Equipment Performance - Road equipment operating rates increased by 7.20% in April, with specific increases of 11.05% for pavers and 5.59% for rollers [9][25] - The Northeast region led in various equipment categories, with the crawler crane operating rate at 73.08% and the pile driver rate at 55.07% [28][30] - The Central region saw significant growth in specific equipment, with the tower crane workload increasing by 131.45% year-on-year [29]

证券研究报告 工程机械：反转逻辑持续验证， 内外需共振盈利周期上行 ——工程机械行业2024年与2025Q1业绩综述 行业评级：看好（维持） 2025年5月16日 分析师 邱世梁 分析师 王华君 分析师 胡飘 邮箱 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 hupiao@stocke.com.cn 电话 18516256639 电话 18610723118 电话 13886125652 证书编号 S1230520050001 证书编号 S1230520080005 证书编号 S1230524040006 分析师 邱世梁 分析师 王华君 分析师 何家恺 研究助理 徐琛奇 邮箱 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 hejiakai@stocke.com.cn 研究助理 蒋逸 证书编号 S1230520050001 证书编号 S1230520080005 证书编号 S1230523080007 工程机械：反转逻辑持续验证中，海外与国内有望共振 1、回顾2024年&20 ...

在共建"一带一路"国家，三一集团频获巨额海外大单，有20家子公司、400余个网点，南非总部基地项 目建成后预计每年可生产1000台挖掘机和其他工程机械设备。 "通过增强适应性、竞争力，中国工程机械在'一带一路'共建国家已完成从产品出口到扎根本土的跨 越，为国际化发展打开了更多成长空间。"江苏某工程机械企业国际部负责人廖凯说，得益于在非洲国 家的发展经验，一些企业已加速在巴西等战略新兴市场投资建厂，打造本地化制造集群。 "铁路市场也将释放大量需求。多国港口有扩建、新建规划，未来预计逐步进入高峰期。"广东某工程机 械企业负责海外市场的吴昊表示，该公司今年已有马来西亚、泰国等国家的挖掘机订单。 他说，新贸易格局下，中国工程机械企业与共建"一带一路"国家，特别是东南亚地区未来合作预计进一 步深化，"一些开拓市场的新方式会陆续出现"。 中新社长沙5月16日电 (记者唐小晴)随着共建"一带一路"国家合作不断深化，东南亚、非洲等地基础设 施建设投资明显提速，中国工程机械龙头企业踊跃出海，已融入、扎根共建"一带一路"国家各类建设 中，不断迎新机遇。 5月15日，第四届长沙国际工程机械展上的展品。中新社记者杨华峰摄 这是记者从 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zoomlion has successfully transformed its business model to achieve sustainable growth by focusing on globalization, diversification, and intelligence, thereby mitigating the cyclical nature of the engineering machinery industry [2][13]. Globalization Breakthrough - The company's overseas revenue accounted for 54.2% in Q1 2025, up from 51% in 2024, marking a significant structural shift from reliance on the domestic market to a focus on international business [4][3]. - The globalization strategy, initiated under the "dual circulation" framework in 2020, involves establishing a global operational system with local production bases and a direct market connection, eliminating intermediaries [4][5]. Diversification of Business Matrix - In 2024, new business segments contributed 48% of total revenue, indicating a successful reduction in dependence on real estate-related income [6][7]. - The company has integrated traditional businesses with emerging sectors such as aerial machinery, agricultural machinery, and mining machinery, creating a balanced growth model [6][7]. Intelligent Transformation - The company has invested 21.544 billion yuan in R&D from 2018 to 2024, focusing on industrial internet, artificial intelligence, and intelligent robotics to upgrade products from machinery to intelligent systems [10][11]. - The introduction of advanced products, including the world's largest all-terrain crane and electric drive dump trucks, showcases the company's commitment to innovation and self-sufficiency [11][12]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.98%, with a gross margin of 28.7%, reflecting improved profitability due to increased overseas revenue [4][13]. - The company's asset-liability ratio has reached its lowest level since 2012, indicating strong financial health and cash flow resilience [13].

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Group 1: Urban Renewal Policy Impact - The recent policy issued by the central government aims to promote urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of existing buildings and the upgrade of urban infrastructure, which is expected to significantly boost traditional industries such as building materials and construction machinery [3] - The policy outlines funding sources, including increased central budget investments and special bonds for local governments to support eligible urban renewal projects, indicating a substantial push for urban development [3] Group 2: JD Group Financial Performance - JD Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 301.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, surpassing market expectations of 11%-12% [6] - Operating profit reached 10.53 billion yuan, up 36.4% year-on-year, with non-GAAP operating profit at 11.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.5% increase, driven by a 0.6 percentage point rise in gross margin to 15.89% [6] - JD Retail's revenue was 263.845 billion yuan, growing 16.3% year-on-year, while JD Logistics and new businesses also showed positive growth, indicating strong performance across various segments [6] Group 3: JD's New Business Initiatives - JD's new food delivery service launched on March 1, 2025, is in its early stages, with daily order volume approaching 20 million, although it has not yet significantly impacted financial results [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing user and merchant experiences in the food delivery sector, which may lead to short-term profit pressures but is expected to drive platform traffic and user acquisition [7] - Future financial reports will be crucial to monitor the growth of order volume, changes in expense ratios, and the sustainability of business synergies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a recovery driven by innovation and green transformation, with a focus on high-quality development and international competitiveness [3][4][5][7]. Group 1: Global Opportunities and Challenges - The global economy is steadily recovering amidst multiple challenges, with emerging markets in Asia being the main growth drivers. The IMF predicts a global growth rate of 2.8% in 2025, while infrastructure demand along the Belt and Road Initiative is invigorating the industry [3]. - The Chinese engineering machinery sector is showing positive trends, with significant growth in export trade during the first quarter, indicating a strong recovery signal [3]. Group 2: Green Transformation - The electrification rate of high-altitude work platforms in China has exceeded 90%, with rapid "oil-to-electric" transitions in products like forklifts and loaders. A peak in electric product sales is expected in 2025 [4]. - The company is focusing on pure electric technology and has introduced hybrid products that save 30% to 50% in energy consumption, while also establishing zero-emission factories [4]. Group 3: Internationalization Strategy - The rapid growth of Chinese engineering machinery exports reflects industrial upgrades. However, companies need to shift from price competition to value competition by enhancing brand value through technological reliability and standardized services [5]. - To mitigate international risks such as exchange rate fluctuations and legal compliance, the company advocates for diversified layouts, financial hedging tools, and strengthened compliance management [5]. Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem - To address issues like price wars and overcapacity, the industry should build a "symbiotic win-win" ecosystem. It is suggested that the China Construction Machinery Industry Association establish minimum price standards for overseas markets to curb disorderly competition [6]. - Companies are encouraged to explore niche markets and develop new models such as leasing and second-hand remanufacturing [6]. Group 5: Sustainable Development - The engineering machinery industry is moving towards high-quality development through innovation and collaboration. The company aims to contribute sustainable solutions to global infrastructure by fostering a collaborative research and development ecosystem [7]. - The focus is on transitioning from zero-sum games to symbiotic win-win scenarios, establishing a sustainable global industrial landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is currently facing more opportunities than challenges, driven by the Chinese Dream and the dual revolutions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Third Energy Revolution [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Opportunities - The Chinese market is the largest single market globally, presenting significant potential for growth [3]. - The rapid development of new technologies, such as AI, is reshaping global development patterns, while the Third Energy Revolution is expected to create new economic growth engines [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry faces challenges from global changes, including geopolitical instability and rising protectionism, which have weakened global growth momentum [4]. - The current era is characterized by uncertainty and complexity, leading to potential "black swan" and "gray rhino" events [4]. - The transition of the Chinese economy is causing market downturns and intensified competition, making traditional high-margin business models less viable [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has proposed a new strategy focusing on globalization, digitalization, and low-carbon development to explore new paths for high-quality development in the engineering machinery sector [4][5]. - Globalization efforts include establishing a sustainable global operating capability with over 400 overseas subsidiaries and a localization rate of nearly 70% for overseas personnel [6][7]. - Digital transformation is viewed as a critical strategic shift, with initiatives to enhance smart manufacturing and product innovation [7][8]. Group 4: Digitalization and Smart Manufacturing - The company has completed the smart manufacturing upgrade of all traditional factories, achieving a leading position in the industry [8][9]. - Smart products and operational efficiencies are being developed through comprehensive data collection and analysis, exemplified by the "excavator index" as an economic indicator [9][10]. Group 5: Low-Carbon Development - The company is committed to becoming a leader in low-carbon and electric products, with significant advancements in electric machinery and related technologies [10][11]. - A dual approach to low-carbon development focuses on product electrification and the expansion of renewable energy sectors, including wind, solar, and hydrogen [11]. Group 6: Quality and Safety in Development - High-quality development emphasizes safety, with a focus on efficiency, brand value, and long-term sustainability [12][14]. - The company advocates for a collective industry commitment to quality, aiming to elevate the standards of Chinese engineering machinery on a global scale [19][20].