亚钾国际（000893）公告，2024年营业收入35.48亿元，同比下降8.97%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润 9.5亿元，同比下降23.05%。基本每股收益1.04元/股，同比下降22.86%。公司计划不派发现金红利，不 送红股，不以公积金转增股本。 ...

智通财经4月23日电，亚钾国际(000893.SZ)公告称，2025年第一季度营业收入12.13亿元，同比增长 91.47%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.84亿元，同比增长373.53%。主要由于钾肥销量增加、价格上 升所致。 亚钾国际：一季度净利润同比增长374% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - Urea demand will increase periodically, and the futures price shows signs of a rebound, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1,830 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures main contract opened high and closed low, and the rebound was not smooth. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. Although the futures showed signs of a rebound in the past two days, the market demand did not provide kinetic energy support. The daily output of urea fluctuated slightly, and it was expected to continue to rise this week. The downstream purchasing power was insufficient, and the market trading sentiment was not stimulated by the futures. Agricultural demand was expected to see bargain - hunting purchases next month. The demand for urea from compound fertilizer factories was limited, and the price in the Northeast region had limited room for a significant increase under supply pressure. The inventory accumulation was large this period, indicating poor downstream demand transmission [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,789 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and closed slightly lower at 1,762 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.56%. The daily trading volume decreased, and the open interest was 212,129 lots (+15,474 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 8,487 lots, and short positions increased by 17,260 lots. On April 23, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,163, a decrease of 97 compared with the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The mainstream ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,770 to 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton, and the quote of large - particle urea was 1,720 - 1,750 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes were stable today, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 78 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On April 23, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,600 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons compared with yesterday, and the operating rate was 85.57% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of April 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.065 million tons, an increase of 158,800 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 17.52%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.12 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract. The urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern before entering the agricultural off - season. The weak expectation of urea is gradually reflected in the 09 contract, and the price is expected to decline [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises had maintenance this cycle, including Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Wushi Petrochemical, and Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical. Enterprises that resumed production this cycle were Henan Jinkong Tianqing Coal Chemical, Shandong Union Chemical, and Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical. Next week, the daily urea production will be around 193,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of April 16, 2025, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises in China was 906,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,500 tons, and the inventory of major ports in China was 112,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [4]. Demand - In the agricultural sector, the northern agriculture is in a stagnant stage, and the fertilizer use in the southern rice - growing areas is following up in stages. However, due to poor rainfall, the agricultural demand replenishment has slowed down. In the industrial sector, some small factories in the compound fertilizer industry face the problem of insufficient orders and shut down, but there is still phased demand. Compound fertilizer factories still need to replenish raw materials to fulfill previous orders. In the short term, the demand side will still follow up based on rigid demand [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1,800 (05 basis + 27), and in Henan was 1,790 (05 basis + 17). The spot trading of urea improved on Friday, and both spot and futures rebounded during the day. But the spot trading returned to light this weekend, and the grass - roots level in the northern region is still stagnant, with prices expected to decline [5]. Strategy - Before entering the agricultural off - season, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. The current fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea supply is expected to increase with the planned resumption of production by 3 parking enterprises and no planned maintenance by enterprises in the coming week. The weekly average daily output is estimated to rise from 19.86 million tons to 20.00 million tons [6]. - Agricultural demand for urea continues to advance, with fertilizer use in the rice - growing regions and later in the Northeast region starting successively. However, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate has declined slightly, and the consumption of urea for thermal power denitration has decreased with the rise in temperature [6]. - Urea enterprise inventory has been rising due to the weakening of downstream industrial demand and the short - term gap in agricultural demand. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 90.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.25 million tons (+8.70%) [6]. - Urea prices are expected to stabilize, and production profits are expected to recover. For example, the production profit of urea factories using the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is expected to increase from 250 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton [6]. - In the futures market, after the main contract shifted from UR05 to UR09, the price of the 09 contract was pressured by short - side active position - increasing. Looking ahead, as production increases, supply will be more abundant, and demand is expected to increase with the arrival of the peak season for summer corn fertilizer production in the Huanghuaihai region. However, the view of demand over - consumption in the market may suppress the 09 contract [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - Domestic urea spot prices are presented for different regions such as Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 - 2025 [9][10]. - International urea prices and spreads are shown, including FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East, as well as the port - collection profit of small - particle urea in Shandong factories and the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong factory port - collection from 2021 - 2025 [12][13]. - Unit nitrogen element prices and spreads are provided, including the price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia and urea, and between urea and ammonium chloride from 2021 - 2025 [15][16]. - Phosphorus and potassium fertilizer prices are given, including the prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 - 2025 [18][19]. - Urea futures basis and inter - month spreads are presented, including the price of the urea futures 05 contract, its basis, and the 5 - 9 spread from 2020 - 2025 [21][22][23] 3.2 Urea Supply - Domestic urea production data is provided, including weekly average daily output, cumulative output since the beginning of the year, weekly average daily output of natural - gas - based and coal - based urea from 2021 - 2025 [27][28]. - Coal prices and urea profits are shown, including the prices of anthracite lump and bituminous coal, as well as the production profits of fixed - bed process in Shanxi and new - process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 [29][30]. - Urea factory inventory and apparent consumption data are presented, including enterprise inventory, enterprise - perspective daily average apparent consumption, enterprise urea order volume, and domestic daily average apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 [32][33] 3.3 Urea Demand - Compound fertilizer data is provided, including the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate, inventory, import volume, export volume, and net export volume from 2021 - 2025 [37][38]. - Compound fertilizer upstream data is presented, including the weekly output of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, domestic supply volume, and cumulative supply volume from 2021 - 2025 [39][40]. - Another set of compound fertilizer upstream data shows the operating rate of domestic potassium fertilizer, port potassium fertilizer inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative supply volume from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - Melamine data is provided, including weekly output, price, price - to - urea ratio, and domestic net retention volume from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - Urea export data is presented, including monthly export volume and cumulative export volume from 2021 - 2025 [48][49] 3.4 Urea Inventory - Urea inventory data is provided, including enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025 [50][51]

1）新洋丰 （睿璞投资参与公司分析师会议） 调研纪要：2024年新洋丰实现营收155.63亿元，同比增长3.07%，归母净利润13.15亿，同比增长 8.99%。复合肥销量435.71万吨，同比增长8.7%，其中新型复合肥销量138.00万吨，同比增长22.93%， 主要受益于消费升级和规模种植群体需求。磷矿石价格高位，毛利率受压制，未来磷矿产出增加将提升 毛利率。公司在西北大区投建三个基地，提升供应能力和知名度，降低运输成本。中小产能退出市场， 头部企业市占率提升。经营性现金流下降因销售节奏差异，2024年末存货增加8亿。未来资本开支项目 为夷陵项目和莲花山矿。 根据市场公开信息及4月18日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募睿璞投资近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 机构简介： 广东睿璞投资管理有限公司是国内研究能力强、激励制度领先的私募基金管理公司，成立于2015年8月 11日，注册资本1000万人民币，创始人为国内著名基金经理蔡海洪先生。与资本市场上众多的资产管理 者相比，我们团队的独特之处在于热爱投资、践行纯粹的价值投资、专注于能力圈、坚持独立判断、保 持勤奋和专业精神、坚守诚信尽责理念。我们以 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. After a brief improvement in spot trading on Friday, the trading weakened over the weekend. In the short term, the spot and futures prices are expected to decline, while in the medium term, before entering the off - season of agricultural demand, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3][4]. - The supply side of urea faces large pressure. The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025, and the daily output remains at a high level. Although some enterprises have maintenance plans, the overall supply is still abundant [25][30]. - The demand side has support from agricultural demand. Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. Industrial demand shows different trends, with the high - level operation of compound fertilizer production capacity utilization, a decline in melamine production compared with last year, and limited support from real - estate demand for panels [48][51][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spread - **International Spot Prices**: The prices of small - particle urea in different regions have different trends. The low - end of China's bulk small - particle FOB price increased by $2/ton, and the high - end decreased by $4/ton. The prices in other regions such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and Brazil increased to varying degrees, while the CIF price in India remained the same as last week [2]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: After six consecutive days of weak trading, the domestic spot market improved significantly on Friday, but the trading weakened over the weekend. It is expected to experience a short - term decline and show an oscillating pattern in late April [3]. - **Futures**: Affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, the equity market fluctuates widely. The futures price rebounded on Friday due to improved spot trading and short - term replenishment by traders, but is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate in the medium term [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides historical data charts of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, JinKai, etc.), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis is given [8][12]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Production Capacity**: The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3,460,000 tons. Some enterprises' new production capacity is expected to be put into operation before the 05 contract [25]. - **Maintenance Plan**: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including Shandong Union Chemical, Shaanxi Weihe Coal Chemical, etc. Some maintenance has been postponed [29]. - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report provides historical data charts of daily output, capacity utilization, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [30][31]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices are relatively stable, and the cash - flow cost line of factories is around 1,364 yuan/ton. The report also provides the full - cost calculation of urea in different production processes [33]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report provides historical data charts of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production processes [34][35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: The "Legal Inspection" policy remains strict, and urea exports remain extremely low. However, the current internal - external price difference is still large, and the theoretical export profit is high [40][42]. 3.3 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and different regions and crops have different demand patterns at different times. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [48][51]. - **Industrial Demand**: The capacity utilization of compound fertilizer remains at a high level, the production of melamine has decreased compared with last year, and the real - estate demand for panels has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [57][59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: As of April 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 906,200 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. Due to weakened downstream industrial demand and a short - term gap in agricultural demand, the inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [3][66]. - **Port Inventory**: As of April 17, 2025 (week 16), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 112,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88%. The overall port inventory decreased slightly [66]. 3.5 International Urea - **International Urea Prices**: The report provides historical data charts of FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil [71][72][73][74]. - **India's Urea Market**: The report provides information on India's urea production, import, inventory, demand, and balance sheets from fiscal year 2018 to 2023, as well as details of India's tendering [76][83].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 15.563 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.315 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.99% increase [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.56% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.04% [2] - The company's net profit for Q4 2024 was 202 million yuan, down 6.52% year-on-year and down 46.11% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 1.241 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.75% [2] Group 2: Product Sales and Market Position - The company's phosphate and compound fertilizer business generated a revenue of 14.739 billion yuan in 2024, with an 8.3% increase in sales volume to approximately 5.49 million tons [3] - The sales revenue for phosphate, conventional compound fertilizer, and new-type compound fertilizer were 3.556 billion yuan, 6.913 billion yuan, and 4.269 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +16.5%, -8.0%, and +16.5% [3] - The sales volume of new-type compound fertilizer reached 1.38 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.6% from 2018 to 2024 [3] - In 2024, new-type compound fertilizer accounted for 31.7% of total sales volume and 38.2% of sales revenue [3] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the phosphate and compound fertilizer business improved by 1.6 percentage points to 16.7% due to the increased sales proportion of new-type compound fertilizers and stabilized upstream raw material prices [3] - The sales, research and development, and financial expense ratios increased by 0.19 percentage points, 0.48 percentage points, and 0.10 percentage points respectively, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.02 percentage points [3] Group 4: Industry Integration and Capacity Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had a total production capacity of 10.28 million tons per year for various high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizers, along with 900,000 tons per year for phosphate rock [4] - The company is constructing a new project with a total investment of approximately 9.6 billion yuan, which includes a capacity of 1.5 million tons per year for ore selection and various other phosphate-related products [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.563 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.07%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.315 billion yuan, up 8.99% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the steady increase in sales of phosphate compound fertilizers and the rising proportion of new-type fertilizers, which have contributed to improved gross margins [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to a total of 376 million yuan, which represents 28.63% of the annual net profit [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the phosphate compound fertilizer segment generated a revenue of 14.74 billion yuan, with production and sales volumes of 6.407 million tons and 5.486 million tons, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.4% and 8.3% [9]. - The gross margin for the phosphate compound fertilizer segment was recorded at 16.66%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points year-on-year, with new-type fertilizers achieving a gross margin of 21.22% [9]. - The company has invested in new projects, including a 150,000-ton water-soluble fertilizer and a 300,000-ton acid residue fertilizer project, enhancing its integrated supply chain advantages [9]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 17.037 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.643 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 24.9% [5]. - The report provides a target price of 18.34 yuan for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral, and it is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Downstream demand has weakened, causing the price of urea to decline continuously [1] - The supply - side pressure has increased as previously shut - down urea enterprises gradually resume production, while downstream replenishment has slowed down, leading to a decrease in overall orders and an increase in enterprise inventory [3] - The cost of coal - based and gas - based production has fluctuated slightly. The decline in urea prices has led to lower production profits, but cost support is still acceptable [3] - Agricultural fertilizer use has entered an off - season, with slow fertilizer preparation for southern rice and scattered agricultural demand. Industrial demand in the compound fertilizer and panel industries has seen a slight decline in the operating rate, and rigid demand has advanced steadily [3] - With the domestic export policy remaining tight, port inventory has fluctuated slightly [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents graphs of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][11][15][17] 3.2 Urea Production - Graphs of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][27] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows graphs of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [23][31][34] 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - Graphs of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, relevant price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit are presented, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][39][42][45][48] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Graphs of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are provided, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [55][56][57] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes graphs of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [60][61][64]