Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is currently facing more opportunities than challenges, driven by the Chinese Dream and the dual revolutions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Third Energy Revolution [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Opportunities - The Chinese market is the largest single market globally, presenting significant potential for growth [3]. - The rapid development of new technologies, such as AI, is reshaping global development patterns, while the Third Energy Revolution is expected to create new economic growth engines [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry faces challenges from global changes, including geopolitical instability and rising protectionism, which have weakened global growth momentum [4]. - The current era is characterized by uncertainty and complexity, leading to potential "black swan" and "gray rhino" events [4]. - The transition of the Chinese economy is causing market downturns and intensified competition, making traditional high-margin business models less viable [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has proposed a new strategy focusing on globalization, digitalization, and low-carbon development to explore new paths for high-quality development in the engineering machinery sector [4][5]. - Globalization efforts include establishing a sustainable global operating capability with over 400 overseas subsidiaries and a localization rate of nearly 70% for overseas personnel [6][7]. - Digital transformation is viewed as a critical strategic shift, with initiatives to enhance smart manufacturing and product innovation [7][8]. Group 4: Digitalization and Smart Manufacturing - The company has completed the smart manufacturing upgrade of all traditional factories, achieving a leading position in the industry [8][9]. - Smart products and operational efficiencies are being developed through comprehensive data collection and analysis, exemplified by the "excavator index" as an economic indicator [9][10]. Group 5: Low-Carbon Development - The company is committed to becoming a leader in low-carbon and electric products, with significant advancements in electric machinery and related technologies [10][11]. - A dual approach to low-carbon development focuses on product electrification and the expansion of renewable energy sectors, including wind, solar, and hydrogen [11]. Group 6: Quality and Safety in Development - High-quality development emphasizes safety, with a focus on efficiency, brand value, and long-term sustainability [12][14]. - The company advocates for a collective industry commitment to quality, aiming to elevate the standards of Chinese engineering machinery on a global scale [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is at a critical juncture, facing both unprecedented opportunities and challenges due to changes in the internal and external environment. The industry must respond to national strategies and promote sustainable development while transitioning from scale growth to high-quality development [2][4]. Group 1: Three Driving Forces for New Development - The domestic market is stabilizing, indicating the potential for an upward cycle in the engineering machinery industry, which typically experiences a complete cycle every 8-10 years. The industry entered a downward cycle in the second half of 2021, and a new upward cycle is anticipated in 2025 due to replacement demand for aging equipment [4][8]. - The export market has shown continuous high growth, with Chinese engineering machinery companies successfully transitioning from trade exports to a comprehensive international development model, which includes product exports, overseas factories, cross-border mergers, and global collaborative research and development [4][5]. - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting infrastructure projects are expected to release more funding for construction projects, positively impacting the engineering machinery industry [5][6]. Group 2: Five Transformations for Upgrading - The industry is accelerating its transformation towards high-end, intelligent, green, service-oriented, and international development. This shift is essential for optimizing the industrial structure and achieving high-quality growth [9][10]. - High-end development is crucial as the demand for large-scale and high-end machinery increases globally, marking a transition from quantity accumulation to quality improvement [9]. - Intelligent transformation is driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and industrial internet technologies, leading to the development of interconnected, unmanned, and smart manufacturing products [9]. - Green transformation is being propelled by national carbon neutrality goals, with companies focusing on phasing out high-energy-consuming equipment and promoting electric and hybrid machinery [9][10]. - The service-oriented approach is gaining traction as competition shifts from traditional sales to full lifecycle and value chain competition, increasing demand for service solutions [10]. Group 3: Globalization of Chinese Brands - Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers have become globally competitive, marking a significant shift in the industry from Western dominance to Chinese scale and capability [11]. - The industry must build a high-quality development ecosystem and enhance supply chain resilience to address challenges such as trade barriers and technological gaps [13][14]. - The Belt and Road Initiative presents opportunities for expanding into overseas markets, reinforcing the global presence of Chinese engineering machinery brands [14].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development in the engineering machinery industry, highlighting the need for innovation, internationalization, and sustainable practices to meet evolving market demands and challenges [3][6][36]. Group 1: Industry Development Overview - The engineering machinery industry has shown resilience in 2024, with key economic indicators stabilizing and showing positive growth, including a 1.91% increase in revenue and a 10.1% rise in total profits [9]. - The industry has experienced a significant increase in exports, with a total export value of $52.86 billion in 2024, marking an 8.87% year-on-year growth [10]. - Technological innovation and collaboration between enterprises have been pivotal in enhancing the industry's capabilities, leading to breakthroughs in key technologies and improved product quality [12][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The external environment for the engineering machinery industry is increasingly complex, with uncertainties in global economic growth and heightened competition from both traditional and emerging players [21][22]. - There is a notable shift in customer demand towards more customized and integrated solutions, requiring companies to adapt their product offerings and service models [23][24]. - The industry faces challenges such as intense competition, pricing pressures, and the need for improved cash flow management [17]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Goals - The industry is expected to maintain stable growth in key economic indicators through 2025, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and a focus on high-quality development [25]. - Key tasks for the industry include enhancing technological innovation, promoting green and sustainable practices, and ensuring the stability of supply chains [26][29][30]. - The upcoming BICES 2025 exhibition is anticipated to showcase the latest advancements in the engineering machinery sector, reflecting the industry's achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [37].

2025年5月14日，以"开新篇、拓新局、创新绩"为主题的"第二十二届工程机械发展高层论坛"在 太原成功召开。会上，中联重科股份有限公司副总裁郭学红以《三位一体跃升 把握工程机械全球 化高质量发展主动权》为题，作主旨演讲。 大家好！很荣幸代表中联重科参加第二十二届工程机械发展高层论坛，与大家一道共同探讨全球 化新时代下工程机械行业的发展形势、问题和对策。 刚才聆听了几位嘉宾的主题演讲，深受启发，也深表赞同。当前，中国工程机械行业仍处于深度 调整期。国内市场低迷，需求持续疲软；海外市场增速较快，但受贸易战、关税战等因素影响， 不确定性在增加。与此同时，以人工智能、大数据、云计算为核心的新一轮数字技术革命正在加 速产业生态重构，为行业转型升级注入全新动能。 在此背景下，我们深刻认识到：中国工程机械企业必须以全球化视野，加速推动"技术创新、全 景服务、生态共建"三位一体的转型发展，在全球行业竞争中牢牢把握发展的主动权。下面，我 结合企业的实践，和大家分享三点体会。 一、技术创新：在"智能化、数字化、绿色化"的转型中不断增强竞争力 创新是工程机械企业全面转型的核心要素。未来工程机械的竞争，本质是技术融合下的创新能力 ...

Group 1 - The fourth Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition opened on May 15, highlighting the significance of the event in the industry [1] - Hunan is recognized as China's largest construction machinery production base, hosting nearly 1,000 industry enterprises, with five ranked among the global top 50 [3] - The province has participated in the formulation and revision of over 300 international and national standards in recent years [3] Group 2 - The exhibition theme focuses on "High-end, Intelligent, and Green - New Generation Construction Machinery, Emergency Equipment, Mining Equipment, Agricultural Machinery, and Transport Equipment" [7] - Over 1,800 domestic and foreign enterprises are participating in the exhibition, showcasing new products, technologies, standards, and achievements in the construction machinery sector [7] Group 3 - The Cameroonian ambassador expressed the potential for collaboration with Hunan in advanced manufacturing, particularly in equipment research and development, construction, and technical services [5] - Hunan's strategic position as a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative enhances its advantages in the construction machinery industry [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's profitability is steadily improving, with a projected revenue of 91.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.28%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 12.20% to 5.976 billion yuan [1][4] - The increase in profitability is attributed to product structure optimization and a higher proportion of overseas revenue, alongside cost reduction efforts [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector, with a forecasted net profit of 7.964 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 33.3% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.55% and a net margin of 6.53%, with year-on-year changes of +0.17 and +0.89 percentage points respectively [1] - Operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 5.720 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.18% year-on-year, indicating improved cash return capabilities [1] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic and overseas revenues for 2024 are expected to be 49.972 billion yuan and 41.687 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of -10.17% and +12.00%, leading to an overseas revenue share of 45.58% [2] - The company’s revenue from earth-moving machinery, piling machinery, and concrete machinery is expected to grow, while revenues from concrete machinery, lifting machinery, and aerial work machinery are projected to decline [2] Market Outlook - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow by 11.74% in 2024, with continued growth in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the upcoming replacement cycle [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic construction machinery sector and is likely to benefit from the overall recovery in the industry [3]

Macro and Strategy - April financial data indicates a weaker than expected performance, with new social financing at 1.16 trillion yuan, below the expected 1.26 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan [6][7] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 7.5%, reflecting a shift towards government financing dominance while private sector credit remains weak [6][7] - The report highlights a significant decline in new loans, with April's new credit at 280 billion yuan, a drop of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [7] Industry and Company Analysis Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) - The company is a leading oilfield equipment manufacturer and service provider, with projected revenues of 9.44 billion yuan in 2010 and 133.55 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 20.83% [12] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 26.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.03% [12] - The company has a strong competitive position in high-end equipment, maintaining a leading market share in domestic and international markets [13] XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 916.60 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 1.28%, while net profit increased by 12.20% to 59.76 billion yuan [14] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to an optimized product structure and increased overseas revenue [15] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector, with domestic excavator sales projected to grow [16] Hangcha Group (603298.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 164.86 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 1.15%, with net profit increasing by 17.86% [17] - The rise in profitability is driven by higher margins from overseas business and a reduction in raw material costs [18] - The company is expanding its international presence, with significant growth in its smart logistics segment [18] TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 978.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 41.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline due to losses in the polysilicon segment [19] - The company is focusing on expanding its transmission and transformation business, with a notable increase in overseas market contracts [19] - The polysilicon business is under pressure due to price declines, prompting the company to reduce production [20] First Solar (FSLR.O) - The company achieved a revenue of 42.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 56% [22] - The company has a strong order backlog, with 66.1 GW of orders as of Q1 2025, indicating robust future demand [23] - Despite uncertainties in U.S. policy, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand for solar energy [24] JD Group (09618.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 16% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in retail and logistics [25] - The non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [26] - The company is leveraging AI technology across its retail and supply chain operations to enhance efficiency [27] Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 367.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 116.68 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [28] - The in-vitro diagnostics segment has become the largest business unit, with significant growth in international markets [29] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in the medical device sector, with a focus on innovation and market expansion [30]

Market Performance - On May 14, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.21%, while the machinery sector declined by 0.43%, ranking 29th among all primary industries [2][1] - Within the sub-sectors, semiconductor equipment had the highest increase of 0.79%, whereas engineering machinery experienced the largest drop of 1.96% [2][1] - The top three gainers in individual stocks were Heng Er Da (+20.00%), Zhong Ji Huan Ke (+19.97%), and Da Ye Co. (+12.98%); the top three losers were Magnetic Valley Technology (-8.20%), Xin Yu Ren (-7.46%), and De Ma Technology (-6.19%) [2][1] Company Announcements - New Era's shareholder Wang Chunxiang plans to reduce his stake by 0.15% through block trading or centralized bidding, having previously held 2.12% [3] - Guangge Technology's major shareholder Beijing Jishi Chuangye Investment Fund reduced its stake by 0.27% from 5.00% between May 7 and May 13, 2025 [3] - Fengxing Co.'s major shareholder Jiangxi Taihao Technology Development Co. has reduced its stake by 1.02% from 7.92% through centralized bidding [3] - Zhuozhao Point Glue's shareholder Yinghao (Hainan) Venture Capital Co. has reduced its stake by 0.2914% from 1.2230% through centralized bidding [3] Industry News - Zhiyuan Robotics and the University of Hong Kong launched UniVLA, a new framework for universal strategy learning in robotics, which allows for cross-domain, cross-scenario, and cross-task capabilities [6] - UniVLA's core innovation is the task-centric latent action space, enabling efficient learning from vast amounts of unlabeled video data, achieving state-of-the-art performance with significantly lower computational resources [6] - The model demonstrated an average success rate improvement of 18.5% across four evaluation metrics and achieved state-of-the-art results with only 10% of the data in specific tasks [6] - The first practical quantum-resistant chip "Mi Xin PQC01" was released by Zhengzhou Xinda Yimi Technology Co., featuring 100% domestic production and core technology [7][8] - The chip supports dynamic switching between quantum-resistant and classical algorithms, operates on a 28nm process, and reduces power consumption by 60%, making it suitable for IoT and mobile devices [8]

Industry Overview - Aerial work platforms are specialized vehicles used to transport personnel and equipment for aerial tasks, playing a crucial role in the construction machinery industry [1][2] - The global demand for aerial work platforms has significantly increased due to accelerated urbanization, rising infrastructure needs, and the growing demand for efficient equipment in industrial maintenance and construction [1][11] - The market size of China's aerial work platform industry has grown from 4.562 billion yuan in 2019 to 7.453 billion yuan in 2024 [1][11] Industry Status - The first aerial work platform in China was developed in the 1970s, initially used for tree maintenance, and has since evolved with improved technology and expanded applications across various sectors [7] - Despite challenges such as the pandemic, the annual sales volume of major domestic aerial work platform manufacturers has shown an upward trend, reaching 4,139 units in 2023 [7] - In 2024, sales volume is expected to decline by 4.88% to 3,937 units due to factors like the downturn in the real estate market [7] - The first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery with a 20.67% year-on-year increase in sales volume, reaching 1,267 units [7] Export Dynamics - Historically, China's aerial work platform export volume has been low, with annual exports not exceeding 80 units before 2024 [9] - However, since 2020, companies like XCMG and Helen Zhe have actively explored overseas markets, leading to a significant increase in export volumes, with 154 units exported in 2024, a 116.9% increase year-on-year [9] - The trend is expected to continue as international recognition of Chinese-made aerial work platforms grows [9] Competitive Landscape - The aerial work platform industry in China has high entry barriers, with market share concentrated among a few companies with strong technical capabilities and brand influence [13] - The CR3 market concentration ratio is 64.4%, and CR10 is 81.5%, indicating a highly concentrated market [13] - XCMG leads the domestic market with a 27.6% share in 2023, followed by Helen Zhe at 22.3% and Liu Gong at 14.5% [13] Development Trends - The industry is moving towards greater integration of smart and automated technologies, enhancing operational efficiency and safety through features like remote monitoring and fault warning systems [19] - Electric and new energy-driven aerial work platforms are becoming mainstream due to stricter environmental regulations and technological advancements [20] - Lightweight and oversized models are being developed simultaneously to meet the demands of high-rise construction and bridge maintenance [22]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.68%，深成指收 跌 1.62%，创业板指收跌 1.92%。沪深两市成交额 11522.45 亿元；申 万行业方面，美容护理、煤炭、公用事业领涨，计算机、通信、电子 领跌；概念板块方面，NMN 概念、合成生物、宠物经济概念涨幅居前， 华为盘古、DRG/DIP、华为昇腾概念跌幅居前；港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.79%，恒生科技指数收跌 1.56%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指收涨 0.65%，标普 500 收涨 0.41%，纳指收跌 0.18%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会】国务院总理李强在会上强 调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在 做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国 际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 【我国城市更新顶层设计出台】中办、国办近日 ...