Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of November was neutral. The current sugar - cane crushing and sugar production are seasonally declining, and the market's attention has shifted to the next season's output forecast. Due to less rainfall after the rainy season and a significant correction in the sugar - alcohol price ratio, Brazil's sugar production may decrease next year [1]. - As of the end of November in the 2025/26 sugar - cane season, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased slightly year - on - year, but the ethanol market competitiveness declined, and the negative impact of the sharp decline in the sugar - alcohol price ratio was digested [2]. Detailed Summaries Production Data in the Second Half of November - Sugar - cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 15.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08% [1]. - Sugar - cane ATR was 133.78 kg/ton, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [1]. - Sugar - making ratio was 35.52%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.12 percentage points [1]. - Ethanol production was 1.185 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.32% [1]. - Sugar production was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94% [1]. Cumulative Data as of the End of November in the 2025/26 Season - Cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 592.266 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92% [2]. - Cumulative sugar - cane ATR was 138.33 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [2]. - Cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.12%, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points [2]. - Cumulative ethanol production was 29.534 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.43% [2]. - Cumulative sugar production was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.13% [2]. November Ethanol Sales Data - Ethanol sales volume in Brazil's central - southern region in November was 2.7 billion liters. Among them, anhydrous ethanol sales volume was 1.07 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%, and hydrous ethanol sales volume was 1.63 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.78% [2]. - The ethanol - gasoline price ratio increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the market competitiveness of ethanol declined. The sugar - alcohol price ratio dropped significantly, and the negative impact was digested [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - In the domestic market, currently, the quotes of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new sugar from Guangxi in the sales areas and poor market transactions, the competition among the three sugar sources affects prices negatively. As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, 29,000 tons less than last year. In Yunnan, 29 sugar mills have started production, 10 more than last year, and over half of the sugar mills have started operation. Overall, the new sugar - making season is approaching its peak, supply is increasing, spot prices are weakening, and there is a lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,139 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 487,935 lots, up 6,509 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 81,558 lots, down 2,553 lots; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 1,490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,094 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,188 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,116 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,217 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,245 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning, it is 5,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou, it is 5,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 tons, up 5.49 tons; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 8.94 thousand hectares; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 330.2 tons, down 90.3 tons; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 tons, down 237.4 tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,146 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 52 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,124 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 23 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 tons, up 20 tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 tons, up 74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 tons, up 34.39 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,096.2 tons, down 495.5 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.1%, down 0.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.12%, down 0.48%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, up 1.29%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.84%, up 0.54% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of November 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 15.993 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%, and produced 724,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. As of December 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central - southern region of Brazil had cumulatively crushed 592 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and cumulatively produced 39.904 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.13%, with a cumulative sugar - making ratio of 51.12%, higher than 48% in the same period last year. ICE raw sugar futures closed down on Tuesday due to favorable weather in the Brazilian production area. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE closed down 0.13 cents or 0.90% at 14.82 cents per pound [2]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 消息方面，巴西12月前两周出口糖和糖蜜160.08万吨，较去年同期的116.29万吨增加43.79万吨，增幅 37.65%；日均出口量为16.01万吨。2024年12月，巴西糖出口量为283.37万吨，日均出口量为13.49万 吨。现货报价方面，广西新糖报价5310~5410元/吨，下调20~30元/吨；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5180~5300元/吨，下调20~30元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5670~5900元/吨，部分下调30~40元/吨。 原糖方面，并无新驱动，北半球两大主产国正常生产，印度暂时并无新增出口施压糖价，仍以区间行情 对待。国内现货价格继续下调，市场情绪脆弱，盘面大幅下行后产业承压，悲观情绪下，暂无止跌迹 象，仍需时间释放情绪。保持空头思路，但避免低位追空。 白糖： 消息方面，巴西12月前两周出口糖和糖蜜160.08万吨，较去年同期的116.29万吨增加43.79万吨，增幅 37.65%；日均出口量为16.01万吨。2024年12月，巴西糖出口量为283.37万吨，日均出口量为13.49万 吨。现货报价方面，广西新糖报价53 ...

Industry Dynamics - As of December 15, India has 479 sugar mills in operation for the 2025/26 crushing season, an increase of 6 mills year-on-year; sugar production is 7.79 million tons, up by 1.72 million tons, representing a growth of 28.34% [1] - In Brazil, during the second half of November, the sugarcane crush volume in the central-south region was 15.99 million tons, a decrease of 21.08% year-on-year; sugar production was 724,000 tons, down by 32.94%. Cumulatively, as of the second half of November, the sugarcane crush volume was 592 million tons, a decline of 1.92% year-on-year; the sugar production ratio was 51.12%, an increase of 2.78% compared to the same period last year, with total sugar production at 39.90 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% [1] Market Analysis - The ICE raw sugar March contract fell by 8 points, closing at 14.85 cents per pound; the London white sugar March contract decreased by $2.4, closing at $423.8 per ton. As Brazil approaches the end of its crushing season, the market is pricing in a bumper crop. The production data for the second half of November shows a significant drop in the sugar production ratio to 35.52% year-on-year, with cumulative sugar production at 39.90 million tons, reflecting a 1.13% increase year-on-year [2] - The market is shifting focus to the northern hemisphere's crushing situation, with India reporting cumulative sugar production of 7.79 million tons as of mid-December, an increase of 28.34% year-on-year. Notably, Maharashtra has produced 3.13 million tons, up by 1.45 million tons compared to the same period last season. The expectation of abundant production in India has led to a decline in spot prices, reflecting the market's anticipation of high yields [2] Domestic Market - The Zhengzhou sugar May contract fell by 1 yuan per ton, closing at 5,132 yuan per ton. In the spot market, prices from Guangxi groups ranged from 5,310 to 5,410 yuan per ton, while Yunnan groups quoted between 5,180 and 5,300 yuan per ton. Processing sugar factories offered prices between 5,670 and 5,900 yuan per ton, with sugar factories reducing prices by 20-30 yuan. The market is characterized by low willingness to receive and deliver sugar, leading to insufficient activity in the low-price spot market [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar daily trading saw an increase in short positions, with the main contract's open interest rising by nearly 52,000 contracts, indicating growing bearish sentiment as prices continue to break lower, reaching a low of 5,124 yuan [3] Price Reference - The reference trading range for the May contract is set between 5,100 and 5,160 yuan [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The new sugar - making season is approaching its peak in the domestic market, with continuous increase in supply, weakening spot prices, and lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 481,426 lots, up 51,928 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 79,005 lots, down 10,879 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4127 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4149 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5231 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5260 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country is 1116.21 million tons, up 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales of sugar in Guangxi is 237.4 million tons, down 593.35 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil is 330.2 million tons, down 90.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1170 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1148 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 66 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan; for Thai sugar is 37 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, up 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, up 74 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, up 34.39 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, down 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.56%, up 0.6%; that of at - the - money put options is 8.6%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.53%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, unchanged [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 1.6008 billion tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December, with a daily average of 160 thousand tons, a 19% increase compared to the daily average of December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.8337 billion tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.15 cents or 1.0% to settle at 14.95 cents per pound due to the prospect of increased supply [2] Tip for Attention - As of now, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537.5 thousand tons, 29 thousand tons less than last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production [2]

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量（张） | 增减 | | SR601 | 5291 | | -43 | -0.81% | 122984 | -20351 | | SR605 | 5207 | | -21 | -0.40% | 429498 | 12559 | | 美糖 03 | 15.10 | | 0.25 | 1.68% | 446856 | -6145 | | 美糖 05 | 14.69 | | 0.22 | 1.52% | 195972 | -172 | 021-60635732 y ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global sugar market supply - demand fundamentals are bearish, with low - priced corn ethanol dragging down the valuation, and the New York raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The supply shortage in the domestic sugar market will narrow, the out - of - quota import window will open deeply, and the domestic market pricing is expected to be anchored to domestic production costs. The market will trade around the expectations of the total volume and rhythm of regular imports in the long term. The expected fluctuation range of Guangxi white sugar spot prices in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton [2][42]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Sugar Futures Trend Review - The sugar futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling in 2025. From January to March, the domestic sugar market was led by New York raw sugar and futures led the spot, with prices generally rising. From April, the New York raw sugar price dropped significantly from its high, pulling down domestic prices. From mid - May, the out - of - quota import cost fell below the spot price, pressing down the futures price. In October, the out - of - quota import cost dropped below the futures price, lowering the overall domestic valuation. In 2025, the domestic market generally had a positive basis, with the out - of - quota import cost fluctuating between 5,000 - 7,300 yuan/ton, the futures index between 5,200 - 6,200 yuan/ton, and the white sugar spot (Nanning) between 5,400 - 6,250 yuan/ton [5]. - The price trend was divided into three stages: from January to March, India's unexpected production cut and low precipitation in Brazil led to a surge in New York raw sugar; from April to June, a sharp drop in crude oil prices and accelerated sugar - cane crushing in Brazil caused the New York raw sugar to fall from its high; from July to December, with Brazil's output increasing and India's expected significant production increase, the New York raw sugar was weak at a low level, and the Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated downward [8]. 2. 2026 Sugar Futures Outlook: Policy Support 2.1 International Market: Bearish Fundamentals, Corn Ethanol Dragging Down Valuation - **International Market Shifting from Supply Shortage to Surplus**: The 24/25 sugar - crushing season had a global sugar supply shortage, with different institutions estimating shortages ranging from 292 million tons to 700 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market is expected to have a surplus, with estimates of surplus ranging from 100 million tons to 1.14 billion tons [9]. - **Slight Increase in Brazil's Output**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's output decreased due to drought. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, although the sugar - cane crushing volume is expected to decline slightly, the sugar - making cane ratio (MIX) has increased, and the output is expected to increase by 90 million tons to 4.501 billion tons [11]. - **India's Output Recovering**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar output decreased more than expected. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, due to favorable monsoon precipitation in 2024 and 2025 and increasing sugar - cane purchase prices, different institutions expect India's sugar output to increase by 480 million tons to 700 million tons [16]. - **Thailand's Output Increasing and EU's Output Decreasing**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's sugar output is expected to increase due to the recovery of sugar - cane production and higher purchase prices. The EU's output is expected to decline due to reduced planting returns and drought [23]. - **Low - priced Corn Ethanol Dragging Down Raw Sugar Valuation**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's corn ethanol output is expected to increase by 21% year - on - year. India's ethanol sugar consumption is expected to remain flat, and the increase in ethanol demand is replaced by other competitors [26][27]. 2.2 Domestic Market: The Focus of Trading is the Total Import Volume and Structure - **Continued Increase in Domestic Output but a Still Large Supply Gap**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's sugar output increased, and supply and demand were basically balanced. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the output is expected to remain high, with a slight supply surplus and a cumulative inventory expectation [30][31]. - **Probable Increase in Domestic Sugar Production Costs**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production cost decreased. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, if the sugar - cane purchase price remains unchanged, the production cost is likely to increase by 100 - 400 yuan/ton [34]. - **The Way to Fill the Supply Gap Determines the Pricing Anchor**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the domestic sugar supply shortage is expected to narrow to 400 million tons. The way to fill the gap determines the pricing anchor. The actual total import volume and rhythm will be the key indicators to observe import policy orientation [38]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Conclusion**: Internationally, increased production and inventory accumulation will put pressure on the New York raw sugar price. Domestically, the total import volume and structure remain the core of trading. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, if imports are strictly controlled, domestic market pricing will be anchored to domestic production costs [41]. - **Investment Outlook**: In 2026, the global sugar market is bearish, and the New York raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The domestic market supply shortage will narrow, and the domestic market pricing is expected to be anchored to domestic production costs. The expected fluctuation range of Guangxi white sugar spot prices in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - New sugar from Guangxi has gradually reached sales areas, and with poor market transactions, competition among three sugar sources has negatively affected prices. As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started operation, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 53.75 million tons, 2.9 million tons less than last year. Next week, 4 more sugar mills are expected to start operation. In Yunnan, 26 sugar mills have started operation, 9 more than the same period last year, and over half of the sugar mills have started. Overall, the new sugar - making season is approaching the peak, supply is increasing, spot prices are weakening, and there is a lack of positive drivers. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5207 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7; the main contract position is 429,498 hands, an increase of 12,559. The number of warehouse receipts is 611, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,126 hands, a decrease of 4,157. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 1490 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4163 yuan/ton, an increase of 53; that of Thai sugar is 4184 yuan/ton, an increase of 52. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5277 yuan/ton, an increase of 69; that of Thai sugar is 5306 yuan/ton, an increase of 69. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5295 yuan/ton, with no change; in Nanning, Guangxi is 5360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 1116.21 thousand hectares, an increase of 840.33. The cumulative national sugar production is 4.48 million tons, a decrease of 237.4; the cumulative sales of cane - sugar in Guangxi is 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 90.3; the cumulative production of cane - sugar in Yunnan is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 593.35. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80; that of Thai sugar is 1112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; for Thai sugar, it is - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97. The monthly sugar import volume is 20 million tons, an increase of 20; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, an increase of 74 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.96%, a decrease of 7.27; that of at - the - money put options is 7.99%, a decrease of 2.16. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.54%, a decrease of 1.49; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, a decrease of 0.81 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of November 18, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 188,400 hands, a decrease of 12,227 from the previous week. Long positions were 150,467 hands, a decrease of 8019, and short positions were 338,867 hands, a decrease of 20,246. As of the week of December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, down from 53 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 151.31 million tons, a 17.14% decrease from 182.6 million tons the previous week. Brazil exported 330.2 million tons of sugar in November, a 2.59% year - on - year decrease [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - **Report Title**: 2026 Annual Resource Product Strategy Report [1] - **Report Institute**: Everbright Futures Research Institute [2] - **Report Date**: December 2025 [2] Group 2: Sugar Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE raw sugar futures price declined by 21.62% throughout the year due to the global sugar production entering a bumper - harvest cycle. The price fluctuated between 14 - 20 cents/lb [7][11]. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with an annual decline of 9.41%. The price of the main contract fluctuated between 5330 - 6200 yuan/ton [7][14]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: Globally, the 2025/26 sugar - making season has abundant supply. In Brazil, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, with a slight decrease in cane crushing volume but a 2.09% increase in sugar production due to a high sugar - making ratio. The estimated sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be flat or slightly higher. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 3435 million tons of sugar, with a net output of 3095 million tons after deducting ethanol production. In Thailand, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 1140 million tons of sugar, and exports are expected to return to 600 million tons. Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to recover, with an estimated output of 1170 million tons [8][19][50][70][90]. - **Demand**: Globally, sugar consumption is mediocre. Domestically, sugar consumption lacks highlights and has a weakening effect on price support [8][110]. - **Price**: Internationally, the raw sugar price is expected to operate at a medium - low level, with the main operating range between 13.5 - 19.5 cents/lb. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, with the main operating range of futures prices between 5100 - 5700 yuan/ton [8][111][113]. Group 3: Cotton Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE cotton futures price was affected by tariffs throughout the year, with the main contract price operating between 60.8 - 69.75 cents/lb. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was also affected by tariffs, with the main contract price operating between 12315 - 14375 yuan/ton [116]. 2026 Market Analysis - **International Market**: Macroeconomic disturbances continue, with supply slightly exceeding demand. Key factors to focus on include the interest - rate cut rhythm, geopolitical conflicts, US cotton exports, and new - year planting intentions. The estimated operating range of ICE cotton is 60 - 75 cents/lb [117][212]. - **Domestic Market**: The inflation data is gradually rising month - on - month. The 2026/27 cotton production may decline, providing support for cotton prices. The estimated operating range of domestic cotton futures prices is 13500 - 15500 yuan/ton [117][214]. Group 4: Urea Market 2025 Market Review - **Supply**: The industry's new production capacity in 2025 was 591 million tons, with the production capacity base exceeding 80 million tons. The annual output was about 7171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88%. - **Demand**: The annual consumption was about 6220 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. - **Price**: The futures and spot prices were at five - year lows, and the annual export volume was expected to be close to 500 million tons [218]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: The industry's production capacity growth rate in 2026 will reach 10.82%, and the annual output may be close to 7600 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.82%. - **Demand**: Agricultural consumption is still the core area, with a growth rate of about 5% in 2026, driving the annual consumption to about 6834 million tons. - **Price**: The central operating range of urea futures prices in 2026 will continue to move down slightly, with the main operating range around 1650 ± 200 yuan/ton [219][295]. Group 5: Soda Ash and Glass Market 2025 Market Review - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity increased by 15.37%, the output growth rate slowed to 1.69%, the demand decreased by 2.88% to about 3422 million tons, and the export volume was expected to exceed 210 million tons. The main - contract futures price continuously reached new lows since listing. - **Glass**: The annual output was 5734 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 7%. The annual consumption was about 5600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. The futures price once reached a ten - year low [297]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity growth rate will slow down to 0.58%, the output will increase by 5.6% to 4100 million tons, the demand will decrease by 0.19% to about 3415 million tons, and the export volume is expected to reach 230 - 250 million tons. The central operating range of futures prices will move down to 1000 ± 200 yuan/ton. - **Glass**: The output will decrease by 2% to 5620 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 3% to about 5430 million tons, and the central operating range of futures prices is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [298].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of recent weather conditions on sugarcane production in major sugar - producing regions around the world, indicating that current weather in most areas is conducive to sugarcane growth, sugar accumulation, harvesting, and pressing [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China - In December, southern China enters the concentrated sugar - cane crushing period. Sunny weather is beneficial for sugar accumulation and cane cutting and transportation. As of November 27, 21 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, 36 less than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of 150,000 tons, a decrease of 316,000 tons year - on - year. The current dry weather in Guangxi and Yunnan is favorable for sugar accumulation [1] - In Guangxi and Yunnan, recent low precipitation and suitable temperatures are conducive to sugar accumulation in sugarcane [15][19] 3.2 Brazil - The central - southern region of Brazil is in the late stage of sugar - cane crushing. It requires sunny and less - rainy weather, large diurnal temperature differences for sugar conversion and accumulation. Affected by La Nina, overall precipitation is low, but there has been some precipitation recently, and soil moisture has recovered to some extent. However, the current low soil moisture is not conducive to the jointing of new - season sugarcane [2] - The central - southern sugar - cane producing area in Brazil has had some precipitation recently, and soil moisture has recovered [34] 3.3 India - Indian sugarcane is in the technological maturity stage, the final stage of sugar accumulation, and is about to enter the prime sugar - pressing window. The monsoon rains have basically subsided, and the overall sunny weather is conducive to sugar accumulation, cutting, and pressing [3] - After the monsoon, the recent sunny weather in India is favorable for sugar - cane pressing [42] 3.4 Thailand - Thai sugarcane is in the technological maturity stage, the final stage of sugar accumulation, and is about to enter the prime sugar - pressing window. The rainy season has passed, and the dry and sunny weather is conducive to sugar accumulation [5] - The current sunny weather in Thailand is beneficial for sugar - cane sugar accumulation [53] 3.5 Global Sugar - Cane Production and Distribution - China's southern sugar - cane planting area is relatively stable, while northern beet planting area is determined by farmers based on planting income. Guangxi is China's largest sugar - producing area, accounting for over 60%, and Chongzuo is the sugar capital, accounting for 9% of the national sugar - cane area [65] - Brazil has the largest sugar - cane planting area globally. About 50% - 60% of its sugar - cane is used for ethanol production, and its sugar output depends on the profit ratio of sugar and ethanol. It is also the world's largest sugar exporter, with exports accounting for 75% - 80% of its output [67] - India is the world's second - largest sugar producer, and its output is highly variable due to natural factors. It is also the world's largest sugar consumer, and its output determines whether it exports sugar [67] - Thailand is usually the world's second - largest sugar exporter after Brazil. Although its output is around 10 million tons, its exports account for 70% - 85% of its output [67] 3.6 Sugar - Cane Growth Cycle and Conditions - The growth cycle of sugar - cane includes germination, seedling, tillering - elongation, maturity, and harvest stages, each with specific temperature, precipitation, and light requirements [60]