Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][19]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue but maintained stable profitability, with H1 2025 revenue at 97.62 billion, down 2.7%, and net profit at 14.41 billion, up 2.0% [1][3]. - The air conditioning industry saw over 10% growth driven by national subsidies, but the company's domestic sales lagged behind the market, while exports performed well [2][3]. - The company's gross margin slightly decreased, but profitability remained robust, with a net profit margin increase in Q2 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 97.62 billion, a decrease of 2.7%, and a net profit of 14.41 billion, an increase of 2.0%. Q2 figures showed revenue of 55.98 billion, down 12.1%, and net profit of 8.51 billion, down 10.1% [1][3]. - The company maintained its pricing strategy amidst competitive pressures, resulting in a stable net profit margin [1][3]. Industry Performance - The air conditioning market in China grew by 12.4% in retail sales and 15.6% in volume in H1 2025, with Q2 showing accelerated growth [2]. - The company's domestic sales decreased by 5.3% to 71.16 billion, while exports increased by 10.2% to 16.34 billion [2]. Gross Margin and Costs - The company's gross margin for H1 was 28.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 29.3% [3][4]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with a slight decrease in sales and financial expenses in Q2 [3]. Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 33.5 billion, 35.2 billion, and 36.8 billion respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 4% to 5% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 156.49 billion RMB for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.03 billion RMB, up 15.6% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its business model and organizational structure, which has led to improved operational resilience and profitability [1]. - The outlook for the second half of the year remains positive, with expectations for continued profit elasticity driven by digital transformation [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Domestic market revenue for the first half reached 77.42 billion RMB, growing 8.8% year-on-year, while overseas market revenue was 79.08 billion RMB, increasing 11.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s high-end brands, Casarte and Leader, saw revenue growth exceeding 20% and 15% respectively [2]. Business Segments - The refrigeration segment achieved global revenue of 42.85 billion RMB, up 4.2% year-on-year, with strong growth in Southeast Asia and South Asia [3]. - The kitchen appliance segment generated 20.67 billion RMB, a 2.0% increase, while the laundry segment reported revenue of 32.01 billion RMB, up 7.6% [3]. - The air energy solutions segment saw revenue of 32.98 billion RMB, growing 12.8%, and the water segment achieved 9.79 billion RMB, with overseas water heater sales doubling [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin for the first half was 26.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost control in the domestic market and a high-end brand strategy overseas [4]. - The operating profit margin improved, with a net profit margin of 7.7%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 2.69 RMB per share, totaling over 2.5 billion RMB, with a payout ratio of 20.83% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 21.13 billion RMB, 23.27 billion RMB, and 25.37 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.25, 2.48, and 2.70 RMB [5]. - The target price for A-shares is set at 33.75 RMB, while the target price for H-shares is 31.95 HKD, reflecting a premium based on historical performance [5].

- The report tracks the profitability data of listed companies in various industries for Q2 2025, highlighting that sectors like agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery are in a relatively high prosperity and low valuation range[2] - The report shows that industries such as communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank finance have high ROE (TTM) data in the past decade, while industries like construction decoration, real estate, banking, light industry manufacturing, biomedicine, computer, and power equipment are at low levels[2] - The report indicates that the ROE (TTM) data for industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, electronics, non-bank finance, and non-ferrous metals are on the rise year-on-year, while industries like real estate, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical have seen significant declines[2][3] - The report highlights that in the secondary industries, sectors like liquor, animal husbandry, white goods, insurance, and oil and gas extraction have high ROE (TTM) data, with liquor industry at 27.02%, animal husbandry at 21.91%, and white goods at 19.92%[3] - The report also notes that the median ROE (TTM) data for all secondary industries is 5.90%[3] - The report identifies that sectors such as animal husbandry, energy metals, feed, games, motorcycles and others, and marine equipment have shown significant year-on-year increases in ROE data over the past two quarters[3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Expected High Dividend Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to construct a portfolio with high expected dividend yield by leveraging historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term factors like reversal and profitability[5][10][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Dividend Yield Calculation**: - Phase 1: Calculate dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution announcements - Phase 2: Predict and calculate dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators[5][10] 2. **Screening Process**: - Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents[15] - Remove the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative return)[15] - Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit YoY growth < 0)[15] 3. **Final Selection**: - Rank the remaining stocks by expected dividend yield - Select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield and construct an equally weighted portfolio[11] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong historical performance with significant excess returns and controlled drawdowns, making it a robust strategy for high-dividend stock selection[13] Model Backtesting Results - **Expected High Dividend Portfolio**: - Cumulative Return: 358.90% - Cumulative Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Total Return Index): 107.44% - Annualized Excess Return: 8.87% - Maximum Rolling 1-Year Drawdown of Excess Return: 12.26% - Monthly Excess Win Rate: 60.19%[13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict future dividend yield by combining historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term influencing factors[5][16] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate historical dividend yield based on profit distribution announcements[5][10] 2. Predict future dividend yield using fundamental indicators and historical dividend patterns[5][10] 3. Incorporate two short-term factors: - **Reversal Factor**: Accounts for short-term price reversals - **Profitability Factor**: Reflects the company's earnings performance[5][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies high-dividend stocks and serves as a reliable input for portfolio construction[16] - **Factor Name**: Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines multiple single-factor signals to assess the market's outlook on dividend stocks[25][28] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate five single-factor signals: - **Inflation**: PPI YoY (High/Low) - **Liquidity**: M2 YoY (High/Low) - **M1-M2 Gap**: Scissors Difference (High/Low) - **Interest Rate**: US 10-Year Treasury Yield (High/Low) - **Market Sentiment**: Dividend Stock Turnover Ratio (Up/Down)[28] 2. Assign binary signals (1 for bullish, 0 for bearish) to each factor 3. Aggregate the signals into a composite indicator[28] **Factor Evaluation**: The framework provides a systematic approach to timing dividend stock investments, though the September 2025 signal suggests a cautious stance[25][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Dividend Yield Factor**: - August 2025 Portfolio Average Return: 5.69% - Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Index): -4.80% - Excess Return (vs CSI Dividend Index): +4.70%[5][16] - **Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal)**: - Latest Signal (September 2025): 0 (Neutral)[25][28]

9月2日，格力电器大宗交易成交18.31万股，成交额760.29万元，占当日总成交额的0.21%，成交价41.52 元，较市场收盘价41.52元持平。 | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 (元) | 成交量 (万股/万份) | 成交金额 (万元) | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-02 | 000651 | 格力电器 | 41.52 | 11.53 | 478.81 机构专用 | | 中国中金财富证券 | | | | | | | | | 有限公司深圳分公 | | | | | | | | | 司 | | 2025-09-02 | 000651 | 格力电器 | 41.52 | 6.78 | 281.48 | 机构专用 | 国泰海通证券股份 | | | | | | | | | 有限公司深圳深南 | | | | | | | | | 大道京基一百证券 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The white goods sector experienced a rise of 1.75% on September 2, with Midea Group leading the gains, while the overall market indices saw declines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Midea Group (000333) closed at 76.16, up 2.88%, with a trading volume of 805,900 shares and a transaction value of 6.106 billion yuan [1] - Haier Smart Home (600690) closed at 26.30, up 1.35%, with a trading volume of 737,400 shares [1] - Gree Electric Appliances (000651) closed at 41.52, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 855,900 shares and a transaction value of 3.550 billion yuan [1] - TCL Technology (002668) closed at 10.44, up 0.10%, with a trading volume of 201,600 shares and a transaction value of 210 million yuan [1] - Whirlpool (600983) closed at 10.88, up 0.09%, with a trading volume of 37,900 shares and a transaction value of 4.124 million yuan [1] - Hisense Home Appliances (000921) closed at 25.14, down 0.12%, with a trading volume of 117,200 shares [1] - Changhong Meiling (000521) closed at 7.47, down 1.19%, with a trading volume of 160,200 shares and a transaction value of 120 million yuan [1] - Aucma (600336) closed at 6.85, down 1.44%, with a trading volume of 185,400 shares and a transaction value of 127 million yuan [1] - Xueqi Electric (001387) closed at 13.55, down 1.74%, with a trading volume of 53,000 shares [1] - Shenzhen Konka (000016) closed at 5.57, down 3.80%, with a trading volume of 730,200 shares [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The white goods sector saw a net inflow of 3.3964 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 9.28937 million yuan [1] - There was a net outflow of 96.2902 million yuan from speculative funds in the white goods sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) for its promising future and low valuation [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in its 2025 mid-year results, with total revenue of 156.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.03 billion yuan, up 15.59% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic sales showed resilience with an 8.8% year-on-year revenue growth, while international sales in emerging markets grew at a remarkable rate of 11.7% [2]. - The company is expected to continue enhancing its multi-brand strategy domestically and strengthen localization efforts in overseas markets to improve cost efficiency [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the revenue from the refrigeration segment was 42.85 billion yuan (up 4.2% YoY), kitchen appliances revenue was 20.67 billion yuan (up 2.0% YoY), laundry care revenue was 32.01 billion yuan (up 7.6% YoY), and air energy solutions revenue was 32.98 billion yuan (up 12.8% YoY) [3]. - The fastest growth was seen in the water segment, which achieved a revenue of 9.79 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.8% year-on-year increase [3]. - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 26.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, supported by cost control in the domestic market and a high-end brand strategy in overseas markets [4]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 21.52 billion yuan, 23.78 billion yuan, and 26.43 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%, 10.5%, and 11.1% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.29 yuan, 2.53 yuan, and 2.82 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.3, 10.2, and 9.2 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Midea Group's stock has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 5.31%, reflecting strong market performance and investor interest [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 2, Midea Group's stock rose by 2.05%, reaching 75.55 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 8.73 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.17%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 579.91 billion CNY [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 12.81 million CNY, with significant buying and selling activities recorded [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the stock increased by 2.37%, while it rose by 5.84% over the last 20 days and 5.56% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Midea Group, established on April 7, 2000, and listed on September 18, 2013, is primarily engaged in the manufacturing and sales of home appliances [2]. - The company's main product categories include consumer appliances, HVAC systems, and robotics and automation systems, with a diverse product range including air conditioning, heating systems, kitchen appliances, refrigerators, washing machines, and small appliances [2]. - The revenue composition of Midea Group is as follows: smart home business (52.68%), commercial and industrial solutions (20.42%), new energy and industrial technology (6.57%), and other segments [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of June 30, Midea Group reported a total revenue of 252.33 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.68%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.01 billion CNY, up 25.04% [3]. - The company has distributed a total of 134.20 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 64.69 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [4]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Midea Group had 277,200 shareholders, an increase of 9.99% from the previous period, with an average of 24,908 shares held per shareholder, down 8.99% [3]. - The largest shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and China Securities Finance Corporation, with notable changes in their holdings [4].

Key Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy of selecting cyclical stocks and capitalizing on industry catalysts for investment opportunities [5] - The report highlights the recovery in real estate sales, with a slight increase in sales figures [6] - The storage industry is undergoing significant upgrades, particularly in HBM and 3D DRAM technologies, which are expected to drive market growth [9][10] - The food and beverage sector shows a mixed performance, with revenue recovery in some areas but significant profit differentiation among companies [16][23] - The light manufacturing sector is led by a dominant player in the folding bicycle market, showcasing strong brand, technology, and channel advantages [26] Strategy and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies across various sectors, particularly those benefiting from AI developments and low valuations [7] - Specific investment suggestions include companies in consumer goods, energy, and real estate sectors, as well as those involved in AI and hardware [7] Industry Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of the food and beverage industry, noting a 0.6% decline in revenue for the restaurant supply chain sector in H1 2025, while the condiment sector saw a 4.9% revenue increase [16][17] - The snack sector experienced a 2.2% decline in revenue in H1 2025, with significant profit pressure due to rising costs and competitive dynamics [23] - The dairy industry reported a 1.3% revenue increase in H1 2025, with a notable 48.5% profit increase in Q2 2025 [18] Company-Specific Insights - Newland (000997.SZ) reported a 10.54% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by cross-border payment and digital ID services [28] - Zhuolin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) achieved a 20.1% revenue growth in H1 2025, primarily due to its electric drive business [29] - The folding bicycle leader, Dahan Kegong, holds a 26.3% market share in retail volume and a 36.5% market share in retail value in 2024 [26]

Group 1 - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests a focus on sectors with solid industrial logic, such as communication equipment, semiconductors, electronic hardware, solid-state batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, national defense and military industry, and robotics, due to favorable liquidity expectations [1] - The advantages of Chinese manufacturing are highlighted, with a recommendation to pay attention to white goods, construction machinery, and power grid equipment that have established overseas production capacity and are benefiting from trade growth with non-US economies [1] - The recovery in capital market sentiment is expected to boost financial performance, leading to a focus on insurance and brokerage firms [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend is guiding supply contraction in various industries, with policy efforts expected to stabilize demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [1] - There may be differentiation within dividend sectors, with an emphasis on high-quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty, suggesting investments in leading consumer stocks, cyclical leaders, and telecommunications [1]