上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 24 日 通威股份 (600438) ——周期拐点确立，成本壁垒构筑长期护城河 报告原因：首次覆盖 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 91,994 | 64,600 | 90,909 | 106,471 | 124,081 | | 同比增长率（%） | -33.9 | -5.4 | -1.2 | 17.1 | 16.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -7,039 | -5,270 | -6,098 | 2,883 | 5,963 | | 同比增长率（%） | -151.9 | - | - | - | 106.9 | | 每股收益（元/股） | -1.58 | -1.17 | -1.35 | 0.64 | 1.32 | | 毛利率（%） | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 10.7 | 14.1 | | ROE（%） | -14.5 | ...

证券日报网讯 12月24日，新希望在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前希望转债尚有余额约9.49亿 元，公司已经准备好到期兑付相关工作，不存在压力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article explores the journey of Liu Chang, the daughter of Liu Yonghao, founder of New Hope Group, highlighting her personal growth, challenges in leadership, and the evolving landscape of the agricultural industry in China [3][4][5]. Group 1: Personal Journey and Leadership - Liu Chang took over as chairman of New Hope Liuhe at the age of 33, leading the company through economic cycles and achieving a scale of over 100 billion yuan [4][22]. - Despite external labels such as "successful second-generation successor," Liu Chang seeks to maintain her authentic self amidst societal expectations [5][21]. - The transition to leadership brought significant anxiety, particularly when dealing with large financial decisions, leading to physical symptoms of stress such as insomnia and premature graying [22][23]. Group 2: Company Growth and Challenges - New Hope Liuhe achieved a revenue milestone of over 100 billion yuan in 2020, but faced a significant net loss of 9.59 billion yuan in 2021 due to external pressures like the COVID-19 pandemic and African swine fever [22]. - The company is undergoing a transformation from a traditional agricultural business to a more integrated and technology-driven operation, focusing on enhancing profitability and operational efficiency [24][28]. - Liu Chang emphasizes the importance of adapting to industry changes and leveraging digitalization to improve management capabilities and reduce operational volatility [24][32]. Group 3: Future Vision and Personal Reflections - Liu Chang envisions a future where New Hope can thrive without her constant oversight, aiming for a more professional and institutional governance structure [35]. - She expresses a desire to explore simpler, fulfilling work, such as running a small fish ball noodle shop, reflecting her journey towards finding balance and contentment in life [36].

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 1.42% on December 24, with Yuehai Feed leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3940.95, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13486.42, up 0.88% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jin Xin Nong (002548) closed at 5.79, up 3.39% with a trading volume of 622,900 shares and a transaction value of 358 million [1] - Boen Group (001366) closed at 13.38, up 0.60% with a trading volume of 24,500 shares and a transaction value of 32.66 million [1] - Lu De Technology (688156) closed at 16.04, up 0.56% with a trading volume of 19,200 shares and a transaction value of 30.61 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Zhenghong Technology (000702) at 6.74, up 0.45%, and Bangtai Technology (603151) at 18.50, up 0.27% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 96.88 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 19.71 million [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in Jin Xin Nong with a net inflow of 7.44 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 15.87 million from retail investors [3] - Tang Ren Shen (002567) had a net inflow of 3.22 million from institutional investors but a net outflow of 4.34 million from retail investors [3]

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The supply-demand structure of the pig farming industry is improving, but short-term oversupply will continue to pressure pig prices in the first half of 2026, leading to ongoing industry losses [2][3] - Cost is a core factor for pig companies to achieve excess returns and long-term growth, especially significant during the down cycle [2] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards larger-scale farming, which is reshaping the market dynamics and reducing the volatility of pig prices [2][3] Group 2: Feed and Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing a weakening of its cyclical attributes, with research and innovation becoming the core competitive advantage for long-term growth [4] - The feed industry is expected to benefit from high livestock inventory supporting demand, while the aquatic feed sector is expected to operate steadily under rational farming behavior [5] - Domestic market competition is fierce, with leading feed companies expected to enhance their competitiveness through cost control and refined management [5] Group 3: Pet Food Market - The pet food market is experiencing a reshaping of global supply-demand dynamics due to tariff disturbances, but domestic consumption remains robust [6] - There is a clear trend of domestic brands rising in the pet food sector, with companies adapting to health and refinement trends in consumer preferences [6] - Recommended stocks in the pet food industry include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ) and Petty Co., Ltd. (300673.SZ) [6]

数据显示，前海开源基金旗下1只基金重仓京基智农。前海开源沪港深农业混合(LOF)A（164403）三季 度减持10.47万股，持有股数136.73万股，占基金净值比例为6.29%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今 日浮盈赚取约94.34万元。连续3天上涨期间浮盈赚取80.67万元。 前海开源沪港深农业混合(LOF)A（164403）成立日期2016年7月20日，最新规模2.39亿。今年以来收益 8.17%，同类排名6038/8088；近一年收益7.68%，同类排名6108/8058；成立以来收益24.15%。 前海开源沪港深农业混合(LOF)A（164403）基金经理为吴国清、刘宏。 12月24日，京基智农涨5.08%，截至发稿，报14.28元/股，成交2.20亿元，换手率3.00%，总市值75.72亿 元。京基智农股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅4.54%。 资料显示，深圳市京基智农时代股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市罗湖区桂园街道老围社区蔡屋围京基一 百大厦A座7101，成立日期1979年1月1日，上市日期1994年11月1日，公司主营业务涉及现代农业和房 地产业,主要包括:种猪、肉猪养殖与销售;种鸡、肉鸡养 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment opportunities in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector are expected to focus on both cyclical and growth dimensions by 2026, with a gradual recovery in pig prices anticipated in the second half of 2026 due to the reduction of sow capacity and industry losses [1] Group 1: Pig Farming - The recovery of sow capacity is expected to lead to a gradual increase in pig prices in the second half of 2026, despite a downward trend in prices throughout 2025 [2] - The industry is experiencing both passive and active capacity reductions due to price drops below cash costs, with a significant acceleration in capacity reduction starting in October [2] - High-quality pig farming companies are expected to continue improving cash flow and asset-liability ratios, enhancing their intrinsic value [2] Group 2: Feed Industry - The domestic feed industry is entering a phase of accelerated consolidation, with leading companies gaining market share and improving profitability [3] - The peak capital expenditure period for leading feed companies has passed, and improved feed sales are expected to enhance profitability [3] - Leading feed companies are likely to replicate successful domestic competition models in overseas markets, creating new growth opportunities [3] Group 3: Poultry Farming - The supply of quality parent stock for white feather chickens is expected to be tight in 2026 due to a significant decline in overseas breeding and performance issues [4] - The supply contraction in yellow feather chickens, combined with low breeding costs, is anticipated to set the stage for price increases and significant profit recovery [4] Group 4: Seed Industry - The focus on food security has heightened the importance of the seed industry, with expectations of a favorable environment for planting and seed production [5] - The supply of hybrid rice seeds is expected to be sufficient in 2025, while high-quality varieties remain scarce [5] - The corn seed industry is projected to see price increases and sustained planting enthusiasm, with a notable decline in hybrid corn seed production area and ongoing inventory reduction [5]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月23日，播恩集团在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年12月20日，公司股 东户数为10231户。 ...

证券之星消息，12月23日饲料板块较上一交易日下跌0.75%，粤海饲料领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3919.98，上涨0.07%。深证成指报收于13368.99，上涨0.27%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日饲料板块主力资金净流出1.83亿元，游资资金净流入5815.72万元，散户资金净 流入1.25亿元。饲料板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guangdong Marine Feed, has experienced a decline in performance for three consecutive years since its listing, with a stock price drop exceeding 10% this year, despite completing a share buyback plan in January [1][7]. Group 1: Shareholder and Management Actions - The controlling shareholder and executives of Guangdong Marine Feed have announced plans to reduce their holdings, with a total of up to 20.91 million shares (2.99% of total shares) set to be sold between January 15 and April 14, 2026 [1][3]. - The controlling shareholder, Zhanjiang Shrimp Feed Co., Ltd., plans to sell 10,437,594 shares through block trading and 6,702,800 shares through centralized bidding, while the actual controller, Zheng Shixuan, plans to sell 265,900 shares [2][3]. - Following the announcement of the share reduction, the company's stock price fell by 6.64%, closing at 7.73 yuan, with a market capitalization of 5.411 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Guangdong Marine Feed's revenue from 2021 to 2024 showed fluctuations, with figures of 6.725 billion yuan, 7.092 billion yuan, 6.872 billion yuan, and 5.912 billion yuan respectively, while net profits declined from 188 million yuan to a loss of 853.92 million yuan in 2024 [7]. - The company reported a net profit of 26.198 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [7]. - The company completed a share buyback of 10.6 million shares in January 2024, with a total transaction amount of approximately 68.29 million yuan, reflecting a profit margin of about 14% compared to the current share price [6]. Group 3: Management Compensation - In 2024, the total pre-tax compensation for Zheng Shixuan, Lin Dongmei, and Han Shulin exceeded 1.5 million yuan, with individual amounts of 767,100 yuan, 384,700 yuan, and 424,500 yuan respectively [4].