行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 39 周周报：行业养殖进入亏损，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1、生猪板块：行业养殖进入亏损，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1）本周猪价加速下跌&外销仔猪亏损加大。截至 9 月 27 日，全国生猪均价 12.76 元/kg，较上 周末-1.39%（智农通），行业自繁自养亏损为 54 元/头；本周 7kg 仔猪价格为 236 元/头，头均 亏损约 54 元/头。供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.55kg（环比+0.10kg），近五年历史同期最高， 其中散户出栏均重 143.92kg（年内高位，已接近 24 年 12 月水平），需求端，周内多地气温下 降，其次价格持续走弱，屠企分割利润增加，再者前期国储交货时间临近；所以本周屠宰样本 日均宰杀量环比+1.80%。当前出栏均重仍处于历史同期高位，猪价继续承压运行，行业已进入 亏损状态，政策引导减产&供强需弱情况下，后续产能有望去化。2）重视生猪板块空间！重 视优秀企业的盈利能力！在 25 年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能有望去化。从 2025 年头均市值看，其中牧原股份 3300-4000 元/头，温氏股份、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to see a long-term performance improvement due to ongoing capacity reduction driven by both policy and market forces, with key companies continuing to show profitability and increasing dividend rates [3][46] - The current prices for fat pigs and piglets have dropped significantly, leading to widespread losses in the industry, which may trigger a market-driven capacity reduction [3][12] - The planting sector is showing positive fundamentals with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3][46] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Fundamentals - Pig prices continue to decline, with the average price for fat pigs at 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% week-on-week, and piglet prices at 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.81% week-on-week [12][54] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is stabilizing, but the pressure from capacity release continues, leading to a sustained decline in prices [12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, highlighting companies such as Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) as key investment targets [3][46] - For the post-cycle sector, rising pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and animal health products, with companies like Haida Group (002311) and Reap Bio (300119) identified as potential beneficiaries [3][46] - In the planting chain, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) and Beidahuang (600598) are noted for their favorable investment outlook due to rising grain prices [3][46] - The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Guibao Pet (301498) and Zhongchong Co. (002891) recommended for investment [3][46] Market Performance - The agriculture sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index down 1.97% during the week, compared to a 0.21% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [48][49] - Key sub-sectors such as feed, animal health, and livestock farming all experienced declines, with livestock farming down 2.14% [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, driven by both fundamental and policy factors. The price of live pigs is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to strong support from previous breeding sow reductions and winter piglet losses [29][32] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. The average price of live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The average price of beef is 66.27 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 2.10% and a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [23] Weekly Market Performance (September 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 2.18 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% and the agricultural index falling by 1.97% [34][36] - Leading stocks include ST Jinggu (+15.68%), Huaying Agriculture (+5.76%), and Biological Shares (+3.78%) [34][40] Price Tracking (September 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.87% [46] - The average price of beef is 65.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 yuan/kg [54] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [20][29] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope [29] - In the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [32]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pork prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.64 CNY/kg, down 3.05% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus in the market. However, upcoming festivals are expected to boost consumption and potentially stabilize prices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yield through advanced agricultural practices and technology, particularly in the context of food security and the promotion of genetically modified crops [1][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on enhancing grain yields through a comprehensive approach tailored to specific crops and regions. This includes promoting high-performance agricultural machinery and addressing storage issues in different regions [1][12] - Companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives, along with seed companies such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Swine Farming - The current average price of live pigs is 12.64 CNY/kg, reflecting a significant decrease due to oversupply. A meeting was held to discuss reducing the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million to stabilize prices [2][13] - The report suggests that the swine industry will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity. Companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs are highlighted as key players to watch [2][5][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2360.47 CNY/ton, down 0.10% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2434.39 CNY/ton, up 0.23% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 4050.42 CNY/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week [38] - Cotton: The average price is 15090.00 CNY/ton, down 0.89% week-on-week [46] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.68 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. Vitamin E prices have decreased by 7.84% to 51.70 CNY/kg [52][63]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Xianfeng Holdings announced the decision to exit the feed business through the termination of agreements with various companies [1] - The company’s subsidiary, Zunyi Kangxiyuan Animal Nutrition Technology Co., Ltd., has signed a lease contract and sales agreements with several entities, which are now being terminated [1] - The decision was made after friendly negotiations among the parties involved, and the transition will be completed gradually after the agreements are signed [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]

Core Insights - The feed sector experienced a rise of 0.89% on September 26, with Hai Da Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] Summary of Feed Sector Performance - Hai Da Group (002311) closed at 63.40, up 2.26%, with a trading volume of 87,900 shares and a transaction value of 555 million [1] - Other notable performers included: - Zi Yang Co. (002696) at 6.19, up 1.81% [1] - Mo Feng Co. (603609) at 8.11, up 1.50% [1] - Bo En Group (001366) at 12.38, up 1.23% [1] - Ao Nong Bio (603363) at 5.00, up 1.21% [1] - Pei Ti Co. (300673) at 17.53, up 1.15% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 124 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 111 million [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks included: - Tang Ren Shen (002567) with a net inflow of 21.48 million from institutional investors [3] - Pei Ti Co. (300673) with a net inflow of 9.99 million from institutional investors [3] - Guai Bao Pet (301498) with a net inflow of 8.11 million from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Xianfeng Holdings announced its total guarantee amount and the composition of its revenue for the first half of 2025, highlighting its financial stability and business segments [1] Group 2 - As of the announcement, the total guarantee amount provided by the company and its subsidiaries is 140 million yuan, which accounts for 17.07% of the latest audited net assets [1] - The total balance of guarantees provided to off-balance sheet entities is 20 million yuan, representing 2.44% of the latest audited net assets [1] - The company and its subsidiaries have no overdue guarantees, litigation-related guarantees, or guarantees due to adverse judgments [1] Group 3 - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Xianfeng Holdings is as follows: electronic materials account for 57.48%, feed accounts for 35.4%, other products account for 3.92%, and bioproducts account for 3.2% [1] - The current market capitalization of Xianfeng Holdings is 3.9 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Xianfeng Holdings (002141.SZ) announced its subsidiary, Zunyi Kangxiyuan Animal Nutrition Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Kangxiyuan"), plans to exit the feed business by terminating existing agreements with related parties [1] - Kangxiyuan has previously signed a feed factory lease contract with Zunyi Riquan Feed Biotechnology Co., Ltd. and its shareholder, Guangdong Tiannong Group Co., Ltd., along with feed purchase and sales agreements with several other companies [1] - The company's board of directors has authorized the chairman or a designated agent to sign the termination agreements and handle subsequent matters related to the exit from the feed business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xianfeng Holdings, is planning to exit the feed business through the termination of existing agreements with its partners, indicating a strategic shift in its business operations [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Xianfeng Holdings' subsidiary, Zunyi Kangxiyuan Animal Nutrition Technology Co., Ltd., has signed a feed factory lease contract and feed purchase agreements with several companies [1] - The company’s board of directors has approved the proposal to terminate the feed purchase agreements and the lease contract, reflecting a decision based on the company's business development situation [1] - The termination agreements will be signed following friendly negotiations with the counterparties, and the company will gradually complete the handover of related matters after the agreements are finalized [1] Group 2: Future Implications - The exit from the feed business suggests a potential refocus on other areas of operation, which may impact the company's future strategic direction and resource allocation [1] - The authorization of the chairman or designated agent to sign the termination documents indicates a streamlined process for the transition away from the feed business [1]