行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 工程机械行业点评报告 4 月挖机出口表现亮眼，看好海外需求加速 推荐（维持） 复苏 风险提示：国内经济复苏趋缓；市场竞争加剧；原材料价格波动。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 邮箱：chenhongyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524100002 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 三一重工 | 19.72 | 1.02 | 1.28 | 1.60 | 19.25 | 15.46 | 12.30 | 2.19 | 强推 | | 恒立液压 | 76.10 | 2.14 | 2.56 | 3.09 | 35.52 | 29.69 | 24.62 | 5.73 | 强推 | | 中联重科 | 7.63 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.8 ...

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the leadership transition at SANY Group, with Mr. Tang Xiuguo appointed as the chairman from May 16, 2025, to May 15, 2026, emphasizing adherence to the company's core values and operational standards [1]. Group Leadership - Mr. Tang Xiuguo will serve as the chairman of SANY Group, responsible for daily operations and ensuring compliance with the company's cultural values [1]. Industry Insights - The article highlights the recovery in the construction machinery industry, indicating a potential turnaround with improved performance metrics [3]. - The transition to "National IV" emissions standards for construction machinery is set to begin on December 1, 2025, which may impact industry dynamics [3]. - Domestic sales have seen a continuous decline for 13 months, while exports have surged over 70%, raising questions about the future of the excavator industry [3]. - February's construction activity showed improvement, leading to optimistic expectations for the construction machinery sector [3]. Market Data - The article includes sales data for excavators and loaders, indicating trends and performance metrics for 2023 and 2024 [4]. - It also mentions the operating hours of Komatsu machinery, which can serve as an indicator of market demand and activity levels [5]. Expert Opinions - Industry experts discuss the current development trends in the construction machinery sector and the push for new energy solutions in machinery and commercial vehicles [6].

2025年6月17—19日 烟台金沙滩喜来登酒店 地址：山东省烟台市经济技术开发区海滨路88号 电话：0535-6119999 随着"双碳"目标的持续推进以及人工智能、大模型等新技术广泛应用，传统工程机 械正向动力源变革、智能化升级、数字化转型、网络化联接的方向发展。新能源工程机 械将促进产业转型升级、重塑市场格局、推动可持续发展。 2025"新能源工程机械大会" 以 "绿色转型 智能升级" 为主题，将于 2025年6月17 —19日在烟台 召开。本届会议将汇聚全球工程机械产业领导者，探讨新能源、数智化的 产业政策和创新技术，解析市场需求与发展趋势，协同产供链，推动新能源工程机械产 业高质量发展。 诚邀行业精英共襄盛会，交流思想、分享经验、凝聚共识、开创未来。 01 会议名称 2025新能源工程机械大会 2025 New Energy Construction Machinery Conference（NECMC 2025） 02 会议时间及地点 当今全球正处于向低碳转型的重要历史时期，工程机械迎来了百年未有之大变革， 呈现出绿色转型和智能升级新趋势。 03 会议内容 国家有关主管部门和组织，全球工程机械领域 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [6][18]. Core Insights - The machinery industry is experiencing a recovery phase, driven by increased domestic demand and favorable monetary and fiscal policies. The report highlights the potential for a new recovery cycle in the equipment industry [6][18]. - Excavator sales in April 2025 showed significant growth, with domestic sales reaching 12,547 units (up 16.4% year-on-year) and exports at 9,595 units (up 19.3% year-on-year) [6][18]. - The report emphasizes three key directions for the robotics sector: marginal changes in the main chains, the evolution from product to customer scenarios, and the focus on core components and processing efficiency [6][18]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Investment Views - The report suggests that the automation market in China is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2025, driven by OEM market recovery and increased demand for industrial automation [18][19]. - Key companies recommended for investment include 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric), and 伟创电气 (Weichuang Electric), all of which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in the automation sector [18][20]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic data indicating a total market capitalization of 50,722.59 billion yuan for the machinery sector, with a circulation market value of 41,442.66 billion yuan [3][6]. - The machinery sector's performance over the past month shows an absolute increase of 10.7% and a relative increase of 6.4% compared to the broader market indices [4][10]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with 汇川技术 projected to have an EPS of 2.12 yuan in 2025, and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 32.80 [2][7]. - Other companies such as 法兰泰克 (Flantak) and 信捷电气 are also highlighted with strong earnings growth and favorable valuations, reinforcing the positive investment sentiment in the sector [2][7].

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in China's trade, with April's import and export volume reaching 3.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month in April, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [6][9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has outlined its legislative work plan for 2025, focusing on key projects related to public and private funds, futures, and listed companies [6][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,342.00, down 0.30%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.69% to 10,126.83 [4] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 13.71 and 36.60, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][15] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines of 0.45% and 0.15%, respectively [5] Industry Analysis - The report notes a significant increase in photovoltaic (PV) installations in March, with a year-on-year growth of 124.39%, although the sector faced a decline of 10.61% in April [22][23] - The nuclear power sector is experiencing accelerated project approvals, with the recent approval of 10 nuclear reactors, indicating a strong growth outlook for nuclear energy in China [33][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and stable earnings, such as traditional engineering machinery and high-speed rail equipment, while also considering emerging technologies like humanoid robots [31][32] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy developments and market conditions, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors, for potential investment opportunities [10][15]

装备制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 12 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 4 月 28 日-5 月 9 日，机械设备、电力设备及汽车行业指数涨 跌幅分别为+5.07%、+3.46%及+2.55%，在 31 个申万一级行业 中排名分别为第 3、8、12 位；同期沪深 300 涨跌幅为+1.56%。 行业观点： 执业证书号：S1030524060001 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 工程机械景气持续，展现业绩弹性 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 市场行情回顾： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Ta ...

Core Viewpoint - Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 77.773 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.22%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 5.975 billion yuan, up 31.98%, primarily driven by international business [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the international main business revenue was 48.513 billion yuan, accounting for 63.98% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12.15% [5]. - The gross profit margin for international business was 29.72%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 21.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.18%, and a net profit of 2.471 billion yuan, up 56.40% [8]. Group 2: Research and Development - In 2024, the company invested 5.381 billion yuan in R&D, focusing on global R&D layout, digital technology, and low-carbon products, despite a decrease of 484 million yuan from the previous year [6]. - The number of R&D personnel decreased significantly from 8,057 in 2023 to 5,867 in 2024, particularly among those aged 30-40 [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The domestic engineering machinery market is expected to improve in 2025, driven by infrastructure investment and new urbanization [9]. - The company anticipates that the demand for new energy products will further boost industry growth [10]. - The company is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the shareholder meeting approving the proposal on April 21, 2025 [10]. Group 4: Business Segments - In 2024, concrete machinery sales revenue was 14.368 billion yuan, excavator sales revenue was 30.374 billion yuan, and crane machinery revenue was 13.115 billion yuan [4]. - The company has expanded its international sales to over 150 countries and regions, with the Asia-Pacific region generating the highest sales of 20.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.47% [5]. Group 5: Asset and Liability Status - As of the end of 2024, the company had non-current liabilities due within one year amounting to 3.956 billion yuan, an increase of 117.21% from the previous year [7]. - The total liabilities were 79.143 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.36%, with an asset-liability ratio of 52% [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the equipment manufacturing industry, particularly in engineering machinery and automotive sectors, indicating a strong market performance [1][2]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector shows significant growth, with Q1 2025 revenue increasing by 10.4% year-on-year and profit rising by 30.6%, driven by domestic demand and stable export growth [2]. - The automotive sector's passenger vehicle segment reported a revenue of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, with expectations for new energy vehicles to exceed a 50% market penetration in 2025 [2]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing declining profitability, while the wind power sector shows signs of improvement, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2]. Market Performance Review - From April 28 to May 9, 2025, the indices for machinery equipment, power equipment, and automotive sectors increased by 5.07%, 3.46%, and 2.55% respectively, ranking them 3rd, 8th, and 12th among 31 primary industries [7][8]. - Specific segments within the machinery equipment sector, such as specialized equipment, saw a rise of 6.12%, while passenger vehicles experienced a slight decline of 0.83% [8]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Indian wind power industry is recovering, with significant order increases for local manufacturers, indicating a positive trend in the sector [17]. - Major companies in the robotics field are securing funding for technology development, highlighting the growing interest and investment in robotics and automation technologies [17][18]. - Recent announcements from companies like Tongwei Co. and Trina Solar indicate challenges in the photovoltaic sector, with significant revenue declines attributed to price drops in the industry [21].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting an overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The mechanical sector experienced a decline of 1.15% on May 9, 2025, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.17%, ranking 23rd among all primary industries. The engineering machinery sector saw the highest increase of 0.68%, while semiconductor equipment faced the largest drop of 2.96% [3]. - Notable individual stock performances included Yuanxin Industrial (+19.99%), Xinlei Co. (+19.82%), and Yuanda Intelligent (+10.08%) on the gainers' list, while Shankai Intelligent (-8.56%), Baoxin Technology (-7.97%), and Jinming Precision Machinery (-7.79%) led the decliners [3]. Market Performance - The report highlights the recent developments in the mechanical industry showcased at the 27th China Beijing International Science and Technology Industry Expo, emphasizing the role of robotics and advanced medical equipment in future industrial innovation [7]. - A significant innovation includes the development of the world's first magnetically controlled blood gel fiber robot, which can navigate complex environments for targeted drug delivery in brain tumor therapy [9].