2.问：请您谈谈此次2025年到期续作特别国债发行的有关安排。 答：2025年到期续作的7500亿元特别国债将在全国银行间债券市场面向有关银行定向发行，期限品种包 括10年期4000亿元、15年期3500亿元。发行过程不涉及社会投资者，个人投资者不能购买。2025年到期 续作特别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债相对应，不增加财政赤字。 财政部将于12月12日开展2025年到期续作特别国债发行。财政部有关负责人就此接受了记者采访。 1.问：请您介绍一下2025年到期续作特别国债发行的背景。 答：2007年，经国务院同意和全国人大常委会批准，财政部发行了1.55万亿元特别国债，作为中国投资 有限责任公司的资本金来源。期限主要为10年、15年，2017年起陆续到期。2017年、2022年和2024年上 述部分特别国债到期时，财政部向有关银行定向发行特别国债偿还。对于2025年12月12日即将到期的 7500亿元特别国债，财政部将延续以前年度做法，继续采取滚动发行的方式，向有关银行等额定向发行 2025年到期续作特别国债，所筹资金用于偿还当月到期本金。 智通财经APP获悉，财政部将于12月12日开展2 ...

Group 1 - The chief economist of Moody's, Mark Zandi, expresses concern that the U.S. labor market no longer has a buffer, with many Americans living on the financial edge, which could trigger a recession if spending is cut [2] - Job openings have only increased by a few hundred thousand since summer, remaining far below the pandemic peak, while layoffs have slightly increased and the quit rate has decreased, indicating workers are hesitant to leave their current jobs [2][3] - The ADP report indicates that private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline in over two years, primarily affecting small businesses, which eliminated 120,000 positions [3] Group 2 - Zandi notes that the increase in layoff announcements, totaling 1.1 million this year, is significant and reflects decisions made months before actual layoffs occur, suggesting that layoffs are imminent [4] - The unemployment rate for young workers and Black workers has risen, indicating early signs of labor market deterioration, particularly in industries heavily reliant on foreign-born labor [4] - High-income households continue to spend robustly despite rising borrowing costs, acting as a buffer against a slowdown, while middle- and low-income families face increasing pressure [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is debating interest rate cuts, reflecting growing concerns that without support, the labor market could deteriorate more rapidly by early 2026 [6] - There is internal tension within the Federal Reserve, with some officials recognizing rising unemployment risks and advocating for further easing, while others believe the economy still has sufficient strength [6][7] - Zandi warns that the visible weaknesses in small business jobs, layoff announcements, and early demographic pressures could culminate in an impending wave of layoffs [7]

IMF上调2025年中国经济增速预期。 据新华社消息，国际货币基金组织（IMF）12月10日在京表示，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出 显著韧性。IMF预计2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较今年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个 百分点。 12月9日，国务院总理李强在北京钓鱼台国宾馆同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会。李强表 示，中国始终是开放合作的坚定践行者和推动者。今年中国经济顶压前行，取得新的发展成绩，我们有 信心有能力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。前不久，中共二十届四中全会审议通过"十五五"规划建 议，对中国未来5年的发展作出战略擘画。中国经济将保持稳健向好势头，经济总量将再上新台阶，产 业升级将创造新的发展空间，超大规模市场需求将加快释放。中国开放的大门将越开越大，欢迎更多外 国企业来华开拓市场。 此外，亚洲开发银行12月10日发布《2025年亚洲发展展望》（12月版），预测亚太发展中经济体2025年 经济增速为5.1%，高于9月预测的4.8%。2026年的增长预期也上调0.1个百分点至4.6%。 报告显示，亚太发展中经济体通胀率预计将进一步回落至1.6%，低于9月份1.7% ...

中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 星图金融研究院副院长薛洪言 2025年12月9日，由《中国经营报》主办的"新跨越 新征程——2025中国企业竞争力金融论坛"在北京举 行。 在"金融赋能实体经济与新质生产力发展"圆桌对话中，星图金融研究院副院长薛洪言指出，以科技创新 为核心的企业成长，往往具有研发投入大、回报周期长、路径不确定性较高等特征，客观上要求具备耐 心和长期视角的资本支持。中长期资金的进入，有助于在资金供给端更好地匹配这类企业的融资需求， 为其跨越从研发到产业化的周期提供坚实支撑。 "信用+数据"破解风控瓶颈 最后，中长期资金作用的充分发挥也有赖于资本市场生态体系的持续完善。这不仅要求相关制度安排不 断优化，也需要上市公司进一步提升公司治理水平，通过稳定分红、规范运作和持续价值创造等方式增 强自身吸引力，使中长期资金"愿意进来、留得住、能受益"，形成良性循环。 一系列政策引导和助力中长期资金入市。近日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业 务风险因子的通知》，对保险公司长期持有特定股票的风险因子进行差异化下调。 薛洪言分析，中长期资金入市，一方面体现了鲜明的政策引导和制度推动；另一方 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has issued a significant warning to clients, indicating that the economic performance pattern of Las Vegas prior to the 2008 financial crisis is re-emerging, raising deep concerns about the current economic situation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Las Vegas, a city heavily reliant on entertainment and tourism, is showing signs of economic weakness similar to those observed before the 2008 crisis, with notable declines in tourism revenue, hotel occupancy rates, and casino earnings [1] - The deterioration of these economic indicators has prompted heightened vigilance among financial institutions, as they mirror the conditions leading up to the global financial crisis [1] Group 2: Aviation Industry Impact - The performance of the aviation industry is also under scrutiny, with the International Air Transport Association projecting a total net profit of $41 billion for global airlines by 2026, but with a profit margin of only 3.9% [1] - Changes in aviation demand are closely tied to economic cycles, and a decline in demand following the trends in Las Vegas could provide clearer evidence of broader economic weakness [1]

Core Insights - The "2025 CCTV Finance and Financial Power Annual Ceremony" successfully held in Beijing focuses on major strategic directions such as deepening financial system reform and high-level financial openness, showcasing 17 annual cases of financial service innovation for the real economy and high-quality development [1] Group 1: Green Finance Initiatives - The "Hunan Xianglin Carbon Ticket Pledge Loan" was selected as an annual case for "green finance" [1] - "Xianglin Carbon Ticket" represents the carbon sequestration amount generated by clearly owned forest land and trees in Hunan Province, issued as voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction certificates [1] - The first batch of "Xianglin Carbon Tickets" was officially issued in April 2025, covering a total area of 4,405.16 hectares with an initial carbon reduction amount of 407,776.9 tons of CO2 equivalent [1] Group 2: Market Development and Innovation - Hunan United Exchange is actively seeking policy support and exploring market potential for the trading and consumption of "Xianglin Carbon Tickets," developing various application scenarios such as "Carbon Ticket + Judiciary," "Carbon Ticket + Cultural Tourism," and "Carbon Ticket + Finance" [2] - The innovation of the "Xianglin Carbon Ticket" mechanism aims to support carbon financial innovation and the establishment of zero-carbon outlets, facilitating banks to implement carbon ticket pledge loans [2] - Hunan Province has identified several pilot areas for the "Xianglin Carbon Ticket" initiative and has introduced management and auditing guidelines to support the carbon measurement model for specific tree species [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market remains optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with gold prices rising despite strong U.S. employment data, driven by expectations of a rate cut and a surge in silver prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On December 9, gold prices increased by 0.39%, closing at $4206.59 per ounce, while silver prices surged by 4.34%, reaching a milestone of $60.67 per ounce due to supply constraints [2]. - The U.S. job openings report indicated a slight increase to 7.67 million in October, significantly above the expected 7.15 million, highlighting strong labor demand despite a sluggish hiring environment [4]. - Market participants are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with an 88% probability, which is expected to provide further support for gold prices [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Implications - If the Federal Reserve emphasizes economic resilience or persistent inflation during the rate cut announcement, it may lead to a "hawkish rate cut," potentially exerting short-term pressure on gold prices [5]. - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's future policy signals, particularly regarding the 2026 policy trajectory and the pace of global central bank gold purchases, as these factors will influence gold's structural demand [8][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are contributing to gold's appeal, with ongoing tensions in Ukraine and Russia's planned ban on gold bar exports by 2026, which may further support gold prices amid global uncertainties [6]. - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is increasing due to rising geopolitical tensions, such as border conflicts between countries [6]. Group 4: Oil Market Overview - Oil prices have been under pressure, with WTI crude oil falling by 0.78% to $58.28 per barrel, influenced by the recovery of Iraqi production and significant declines in U.S. crude oil inventories [9][11]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a substantial decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.8 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, which may provide short-term support for oil prices [9][11].

欧盟各国将快速推进一项决议，计划无限期冻结至多2100亿欧元的俄罗斯主权资产。此举旨在于下周欧 洲领导人峰会召开前，绕开匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托（Viktor Orbán）的阻挠。 匈牙利是欧盟内部最亲俄的国家，反对向基辅提供任何进一步援助，并频繁威胁要否决制裁延期。欧盟 官员担忧，若特朗普政府决定单方面取消美国对俄制裁，欧尔班可能会兑现这一威胁。 匈牙利政府发言人佐尔坦·科瓦奇（Zoltán Kovács）本周表示，欧盟委员会的贷款提案"越过了所有红 线"。 为规避制裁被取消的风险，欧盟委员会提议动用专用于应对经济危机的紧急权力，对这些资产实施无限 期制裁。该权力依据欧盟条约第122条启用，只需多数欧盟国家同意即可通过，从而绕过潜在的否决 权。 据知情官员透露，这项立法的仓促推进——援引紧急权力推翻各国在制裁延期问题上的否决权——目的 是维护布鲁塞尔在美国主导的俄乌和平谈判中的影响力。 负责该立法的外交官认为，在未来几天迅速采取行动，将冻结资产这一棘手问题与利用冻结的俄罗斯资 金为基辅筹集贷款的辩论分开，是明智之举。而贷款相关事宜将留待下周欧盟领导人峰会处理。 欧盟计划在本周内进行投票，打破制裁决策需"一致 ...

Group 1 - The personal pension system is entering a critical phase as the deadline for annual contributions approaches in December 2025, marking the last opportunity to enjoy tax benefits for the year [1] - The personal pension system, as the "third pillar" of the pension insurance framework, offers dual benefits of tax savings and asset appreciation, enhancing retirement security [1] - JD Finance has launched a monthly activity for pension contributions, lowering participation barriers and increasing the attractiveness of pension savings [1] Group 2 - Since the pilot launch on November 25, 2022, the personal pension system has been in place for three years, with an increasing variety of investment options available [2] - JD Finance has introduced over 180 pension fund products, including target date, target risk, and index allocation types, along with stable products like national pension whole life insurance [2] - The current "slow bull" trend in the equity market presents a historic opportunity for the personal pension business, enhancing investor confidence and encouraging long-term participation [2]

在欧洲议会最新的表决中，一项提议旨在将被冻结的俄罗斯资产直接转移给乌克兰，但遭到了455名议 员的明确反对，只有77名议员表示支持，另外还有53人选择弃权。紧接着，另一项关于剥夺俄罗斯企业 参与林根核电站合作资格的提案，也未能通过，最终以453票反对、130票支持的结果宣布失败。 Euroclear的首席执行官已多次向欧盟高层发出警告：如果动用这笔资金，俄罗斯将发起全球范围的法律 诉讼，规模足以让这一金融机构陷入瘫痪，甚至崩溃。比利时首相也曾当众质问其他成员国：你们可以 倡导没收，但如果导致我国金融体系崩溃，谁愿意为我们出钱救助？现场没有人回应，因为大家都清 楚，一旦触碰这个敏感问题，谁做出决定，谁就必须独自承受随之而来的法律后果与资本撤离潮。 这两项提案接连被否决，表面上看是政策分歧，但其实背后反映出欧洲核心国家在对待俄罗斯问题上的 深层顾虑。并非缺乏道义立场，而是对动用主权资产可能引发的连锁反应存在极高的警惕。要真正理解 这一决策逻辑，我们必须去除情绪化的政治语言，深入分析其背后的地缘政治、金融体系和商业现实。 首先，德国的战略焦虑是其中的一个重要因素。绿党提出的转移资产的方案，名义上是为了支援乌克 兰， ...