Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of January 23, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.7x and PB at 1.9x, positioned at the historical 83rd and 52nd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.5x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 58th and 36th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.1x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 63rd and 37th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 38.9x and PB at 2.7x, at the historical 71st and 63rd percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 51.5x and PB at 2.7x, at the historical 74th and 61st percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 64.1x and PB at 3.0x, at the historical 79th and 71st percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 43.0x and PB at 5.8x, at the historical 42nd and 68th percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 180.4x and PB at 6.9x, at the historical 98th and 83rd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, Electronics (Semiconductors), and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Defense and Military, Electronics (Semiconductors), and Communications [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Aquaculture and White Goods [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, downstream spot prices continue to rise, while upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 10.8% [2] - Battery materials show mixed trends, with cobalt prices down by 3.7% and lithium carbonate prices up by 9.8% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.4%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 2.3% [3] - The DRAM price index increased by 3.0%, while NAND prices surged by 10.8% [3] Real Estate Chain - The average price of rebar fell by 1.3%, while iron ore prices decreased by 2.2% [3] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 17.2% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.5%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 2.1% [3] - Retail sales growth for 2025 is projected at 3.7%, with December's growth at 0.9%, below expectations [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 0.6% year-on-year, while narrow infrastructure investment fell by 2.2% [3] - Heavy truck sales increased by 13.0% year-on-year in December, with a total annual growth of approximately 26% [3] Cyclical Industries - Brent crude oil futures closed up by 3.2% at $66.23 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 12.4%, indicating increased shipping demand [3]

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）近期A股整体呈现震荡上行格局，市场成交维持高位，赚钱效应明 显修复。与此同时，主要宽基指数涨跌互现，市场风格分化进一步加剧。代表大盘蓝筹的上证50和沪深 300指数表现较弱，而中证500和中证1000等中小盘指数则大幅领涨。逆周期调节政策落地后，春季行情 将如何演绎？市场结构性分化会否延续？请看本周机构研判。 中信证券：市场信心持续恢复中 消费链的增配时点就是当下 近期宽基ETF的赎回规模继续放大，在此背景下，不同行业和个股的承接力相差较大。从结构上来看， 主动型机构超配的板块和个股在宽基ETF赎回潮中反而超额收益更明显。往后看，市场信心处于持续恢 复过程中，只要估值处于相对低位、具备增长逻辑且非宽基权重股的行业，预计都将出现修复。其中消 费链的增配时点就是当下到3月前后，地产链亦可能在此阶段发生明显修复。 此外，在"资源+传统制造定价权重估"的基本思路下，围绕化工、有色、新能源、电力设备构建的基础 组合，仍然是优先配置方向。在此基础上，投资者可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分内需 品种（如免税、航空、建材等）或高景气品种（半导体设备、材 ...

1月25日，八一钢铁（600581）发布的业绩预告显示，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润-18.50亿元到-20.50亿元；预计2025年年度实现 归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润-19.00亿元到-21.00亿元；预计2025年末净资产为-17.60亿元到-19.50亿元。 纵观近年业绩，八一钢铁已经连续三年亏损，2025年前三季度亏损尚有所收窄。2022年至2024年，公司归母净亏损分别为13.62亿元、11.63亿元、17.52 亿元，4年累亏达60亿。 对于业绩预亏的原因，公告称，当前钢铁行业处于"减量发展、存量优化"深度调整期，"供需双弱"叠加环保政策收紧、原燃料与钢材价格"剪刀差"、产 能过剩等因素，企业利润被大幅压缩；新疆区域市场"三高三低"、冬季生产效率偏低加剧经营压力，叠加区域供需失衡、同质化竞争、产能未有效发挥 等内外部因素，使得公司本期业绩预亏。 在此背景下，八一钢铁部分资产出现减值迹象。根据相关规定，公司对存在减值迹象的资产进行减值测试，并基于测试结果计提相应的资产减值准备。 同日，八一钢铁发布关于股票可能被实施退市风险警示的风险提示公告。 八一钢铁称，由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Ba Yi Steel is expected to report significant losses for 2025, with projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -1.85 billion to -2.05 billion yuan, indicating ongoing financial struggles in a challenging industry environment [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Ba Yi Steel has recorded losses for three consecutive years, with net losses of 1.36 billion yuan in 2022, 1.16 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, totaling approximately 6 billion yuan in cumulative losses over four years [1][3]. - The forecast for the end of 2025 indicates a net asset value between -1.76 billion and -1.95 billion yuan, which may trigger delisting risk warnings under stock exchange regulations [1][3]. Industry Context - The steel industry is currently undergoing a "reduction in quantity and optimization of stock" adjustment phase, characterized by weak supply and demand, tightening environmental policies, and a significant disparity between raw material and steel prices [3]. - Factors such as overcapacity, low production efficiency during winter, and regional supply-demand imbalances are contributing to the operational pressures faced by the company [3]. Asset Impairment - The company has identified signs of asset impairment and is conducting impairment tests on affected assets, preparing to recognize necessary impairment provisions based on the test results [3]. Market Reaction - As of January 23, Ba Yi Steel's stock price increased by 2.27% to 3.60 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 5.52 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase in stock price over the past year [3].

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities emphasizes that the recent cooling in the market affects the rhythm and structure rather than the overall trend, with the core logic supporting the upward spring market remaining unchanged. The current spring market is still in progress, and although the market rhythm has slowed, the upward trend continues, with the profit effect expanding to a broader range [1]. Group 1: Liquidity and Catalysts - A liquidity-rich environment is the core driving force supporting the upward trend of the spring market, stemming from the strong performance of insurance funds and the influx of foreign capital due to the appreciation of the RMB [1][2]. - Insurance funds have shown impressive performance in the "opening red" period, with individual insurance premium growth rates exceeding 30% for leading companies, and some companies' individual insurance premiums surpassing 10 billion [1]. - The first half of this year is expected to see a peak in the maturity of residents' fixed deposits, creating an important window for residents to increase their allocation to equity assets [2]. - The continuous appreciation of the RMB is attracting foreign capital back to the market, with a record high of $99.9 billion in bank foreign exchange settlement surplus in December 2025, including a $11.5 billion surplus in securities investment [2]. Group 2: Market Structure and Performance - The current market is characterized by a warm macro environment and supportive policies, which are enhancing market risk appetite and driving the profit effect to expand across various sectors [3]. - The upcoming week will feature a concentrated window for industry catalysts, particularly with the earnings reports from North American tech giants, which may influence the domestic market [4]. - The earnings preview period is approaching its peak, with a disclosure rate expected to reach around 55%, which will significantly impact market structure [4][7]. Group 3: Earnings Forecasts and Sector Focus - As of January 23, 2025, 889 A-share listed companies have released earnings forecasts, with 304 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 50%, primarily in sectors such as computing, chemicals, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and computer technology [5][6]. - The sectors with high growth or exceeding expectations in earnings forecasts include storage, new energy (battery storage, grid equipment), chemicals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7]. - The report highlights that industries with low price increases during the current market rally include AI hardware, new energy, and various cyclical sectors [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - February is anticipated to be a core window for bullish market activity, with a typical pattern of market volatility driven by liquidity and risk appetite, particularly in small-cap and growth sectors [9]. - The report suggests that themes such as AI applications, commercial space, and energy narratives should be revisited as they may gain renewed attention in February [9].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中国基金报 记者 夏天 【导读】八一钢铁（维权）预计2025年期末净资产为负，可能触发退市风险警示情形 1月25日晚间，八一钢铁（证券代码：600581）公告称，预计2025年期末净资产为-19.50亿元至-17.60亿 元。若经审计后的净资产为负，将触及上交所规定的退市风险警示情形，公司股票可能被实施退市风险 警示（即股票简称前冠以"*ST"字样）。 公司同日晚间披露业绩预亏公告，预计2025年实现归母净利润-20.50亿元至-18.50亿元；扣非归母净利 润为-21.00亿元至-19.00亿元。 2025年前三季度，八一钢铁实现归母净利润-5.72亿元。据此计算，预计公司2025年第四季度归母净利 润为-14.78亿元至-12.78亿元，而上年同期亏损3.07亿元。 2025年第四季度糟糕的业绩表现，无疑使八一钢铁2025年末的净资产状况"雪上加霜"。根据2025年三季 报，公司第三季度实现盈利1.25亿元，截至2025年9月末，公司净资产为-4.76亿元。 对此，八一钢铁表示，当前钢铁行业处于"减量发展、存量优化"深度调整期 ...

中国基金报记者 夏天 1月25日晚间，八一钢铁（证券代码：600581）公告称，预计2025年期末净资产为-19.50亿元至-17.60亿 元。若经审计后的净资产为负，将触及上交所规定的退市风险警示情形，公司股票可能被实施退市风险 警示（即股票简称前冠以"*ST"字样）。 【导读】八一钢铁预计2025年期末净资产为负，可能触发退市风险警示情形 公司同日晚间披露业绩预亏公告，预计2025年实现归母净利润-20.50亿元至-18.50亿元；扣非归母净利 润为-21.00亿元至-19.00亿元。 2025年前三季度，八一钢铁实现归母净利润-5.72亿元。据此计算，预计公司2025年第四季度归母净利 润为-14.78亿元至-12.78亿元，而上年同期亏损3.07亿元。 2025年第四季度糟糕的业绩表现，无疑使八一钢铁2025年末的净资产状况"雪上加霜"。根据2025年三季 报，公司第三季度实现盈利1.25亿元，截至2025年9月末，公司净资产为-4.76亿元。 截至1月23日收盘，公司股价报3.60元/股，总市值为55.18亿元。 对此，八一钢铁表示，当前钢铁行业处于"减量发展、存量优化"深度调整期，"供需双弱"叠加 ...

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网讯 1月25日，方大特钢发布公告称，2026年1月25日，方大特钢第九届董事会第十次会议审 议通过《关于聘任高级管理人员的议案》，聘任许杰为公司总法律顾问，任期自董事会审议通过之日起 至第九届董事会届满之日止。 ...

证券日报网讯 1月25日，八一钢铁发布公告称，公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润-18.50亿元到-20.50亿元；预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利 润-19.00亿元到-21.00亿元；预计2025年末净资产为-17.60亿元到-19.50亿元。 （编辑 丛可心） ...