短期沪锌上方承压 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月我国锌精矿进口量为46.26万吨，环比下降10.87%；2025年1-12月累计进口532.4万吨，同比增长30.59%。 12月锌精矿进口环比下滑，但仍处于近几年的高位水平。国内矿端紧张格局预期逐渐改善，3月国内锌精矿加工费为1300-1700元， 月环比上涨100元；进口锌精矿加工费为31.5美元/干吨，月环比下降18.42美元。上周国内锌精矿现货加工费维持在1500-1700 元/吨，周环比持平；进口锌精矿现货加工费24.35美元/干吨，周度环比下降0.53美元。 供应：2026年1月精炼锌月度产量为56.06万吨，环比增加1.54%，同比增加7.35%，略低于预期：1月炼厂复产增多贡献主要增 量，2月除了自然天数减少外，部分炼厂春节停产检修，带来较大减量，预计2月产量环比回落8.78%或4.92万吨至51.14万吨。春 节前冬储备库基本完成，但整体库存仅能满足约22-23天的生产需求，远低于往年同期水平。进口矿因亏损走深导致补充有限，企 业主要依赖国产矿维持生产。当前冶炼利润继续维持亏损状态，不过硫酸价格高位支撑下，供应端大幅减产压力不大。 12月 ...

近年来，中国资本市场体系持续完善，行业制度不断优化，为私募基金行业营造了前所未有的发展沃 土。私募证券投资基金规模稳步攀升，策略类型日益丰富多元，优秀私募机构不断涌现，行业整体正逐 步迈向高质量、规范化发展的崭新阶段。面对充满机遇与挑战的市场环境，私募机构不仅需要敏锐的市 场洞察力，更需要坚实的后盾与全方位的支持，以稳健的步伐迈向更广阔的星辰大海。 作为我国军工央企所属的唯一证券公司，中航证券积极践行财富管理转型，持续深化与私募机构的合 作。中航证券已成功举办两届"航融杯"私募评选活动，凭借专业的服务与完善的评选机制，赢得了行业 广泛关注与热烈响应，不仅有效提升了中航证券在私募机构服务领域的品牌影响力，更为私募机构搭建 了展示实力、交流经验的优质平台，成为私募机构发展的有力助推器。 为与更多私募机构建立紧密、深入的合作关系，中航证券正式启动第三届"航融杯"-翼辰私募星计划。 本届活动全新升级，中航证券联合多家实力机构共同打造开放式、多元化的私募发展与交流平台，致力 于为私募机构提供更深层次、全方位的支持。 覆盖主流五大策略 同台竞技彰显实力 本次活动时间为2026年3月1日至2027年2月28日，为期一年。参 ...

展望后市，海证期货表示，预计多晶硅整体震荡运行，考虑到政策面不确定性，单边操作上需谨慎。 供应方面，广州期货指出，供应端减产延续，3月部分小企业有开工计划，实际落地仍取决于价格表 现。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，节后，硅片企业将在正月十五后陆续复工，复工初期以消化自 身库存为主，多晶硅采购需求释放将滞后。贸易商观望情绪浓厚，冬储意愿低迷，短期无投机需求补 充。 2月26日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，多晶硅期货盘中低位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约 报46500.0元/吨，跌幅2.20%。 消息面上，据国投安信期货介绍，头部企业发布收购公告，短期对市场情绪提振有限。政策行业"反内 卷"导向更趋市场化与法治化。 ...

广发期货：贵金属行情或转入2-4个月的酝酿期积累新的动能以突破前高 【机构观点分析】 中财期货分析指出，贵金属短期博弈焦点在26日的美伊谈判。若谈判无突破，美方军事施压将升级，市 场避险情绪再升温，但谈判结束后需警惕获利了结；若伊朗让步，避险情绪快速消退，将利空贵金属。 此外，周大福，老铺黄金等品牌同步提价，金价上涨向终端消费者传导，市场对高价贵金属的接受程度 加强。 中财期货：美伊谈判后需警惕获利了结风险 光大期货 ：预计国际金价近期在5000美元／盎司附近宽幅震荡 福能期货：金价中长期牛市基础仍存 光大期货分析称，英伟达财报与业绩指引双双超预期，一定程度上缓解了此前市场对AI盈利性的担 忧，隔夜市场美国科技股普遍反弹，市场流动性紧张有所缓解，美元指数小幅走弱，提振金价走势。地 缘政治方面，美伊第三轮谈判即将举行，特朗普想要听到"永不拥核"的承诺，副总统万斯表示美对谈判 抱有希望，但不排除动武。市场近期降低了对未来美联储降息的押注，地缘政治成为黄金聚焦点，预计 仍将在5000美元／盎司上下展开高位宽幅震荡，需关注本周美伊谈判进展。 福能期货表示，美伊紧张局势持续发酵及美国内部政治博弈加剧推升避险需求，支撑贵 ...

粮油供给关系国计民生。2026年中央一号文件明确提出"稳定发展粮油生产""实施粮食流通提质增效项 目，促进适销对路、优质优价""促进农产品贸易和生产相协调""培育具有国际竞争力的农业企业"。过 去一年，大商所坚持"一品一策"做好粮油等品种维护优化工作，持续推动农产品期货市场运行提质增 效、功能更好发挥。2025年，大商所农产品期货和期权累计成交超14亿手、日均持仓超1144万手，为承 接涉农市场主体风险管理等需求打下了坚实基础。 2025年，修改后的玉米期货交割质量标准自C2505合约起施行，重点提高了容重指标，包括将标准品容 重从≥675g/L提高到≥685g/L，以及将贴水替代品容重从≥650g/L提高到≥660g/L（贴水幅度为40元／ 吨），同时删除了生霉粒指标，增加了霉变粒指标（标准品霉变粒要求为≤2%），并将交割质量标准引 用的国标由《GB 1353-2009 玉米》更新为《GB 1353-2018 玉米》。对此，相关产业人士表示，调整后 的标准品更加贴近主流玉米，提升了期货价格代表性，体现了优质优价。玉米2505合约较2405合约产业 客日均持仓量增加27%，交割量增加61%至127.3万吨，并 ...

国金证券认为，原油市场当前脱离供需，预计未来一个月内价格的高波动率将不可避免。油价上涨可能 带动化工品涨价预期，而如果地缘风险溢价回落则行业成本压力下降，考虑到国内未来产业反内卷的政 策方向，有利于化工产业的长期格局优化及高质量发展。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数，聚焦"大能源"安全逻辑。 不仅能分享下游化工品的利润修复，此外通过高配"三桶油"等炼化龙头，锁定能源上游资源价值，在油 价上行周期具备更强的业绩韧性。 截至2月26日14点31分，石化ETF（159731）涨0.75%，持仓股盐湖股份、蓝晓科技、藏格矿业等涨幅居 前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计11.53亿元。石化ETF最 新份额达17.41亿份，最新规模18.54亿元。 租用一条超大型油轮（VLCC）把原油从中东运到亚洲的价格，继周二突破17万美元/日后，周三又突破 20万美元的关口，续创2020年以来新高。 华泰期货分析，西方对影子油轮的制裁导致合规油轮数量持续下降，同时委油合规化以后需要更多的合 规油油轮进行运输，运费上涨后，东西区套利 ...

目前来看，沪锡行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪锡后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）分析称，基本面上，供给端延续偏紧，而需求端暂未复工。当前价格处于历史高 位，下方受供给端，宏观与ai叙事支撑，上方受未来需求端高价负反馈压制。展望未来，预计维持高位 震荡，关注印尼审批进度与缅甸实际复产进度。 2月26日，国内期市有色金属板块互有涨跌。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报417820.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沪锡主力最高触及424400.00元，下方探低408150.00元，涨幅达 3.52%。 铜冠金源期货表示，美元承压，利好风险资产。英伟达财报和指引远超预期，提升锡消费前景，叠加当 前缅甸锡矿恢复节奏缓慢、印尼资源保护政策加深，原料端紧缺未能持续有效改善。供需支撑较强，且 市场风险偏好较暖，沪锡有望保持偏强节奏运行。 广州期货指出，英伟达财报激发市场对AI交易的热情，提振锡市投机情绪；现货市场节后恢复初期表 现清淡，锡锭库存季节性累增但幅度有限，预计锡价维持高位震荡偏强运行。 ...

参与学习并完成任务，即可解锁： A股震荡如何避险？商品期货怎么抓机遇？跨市场联动机会如何把握？ 第一财经携手光大期货，重磅打造投资进阶训练营首期课程，聚焦市场 "联动" 与 "波动" 核心特征，从 基础入门到进阶实战，手把手教你构建立体交易认知体系，解锁期股联动、对冲实操等硬核技能，3月2 日起直播开讲，现在入群即可抢占学习席位！ 双强联手，专业赋能 本次课程由第一财经与光大期货联合打造，多位持牌资深讲师坐镇，课程贯穿 "A股情绪-宏观政策-产 业逻辑-内外盘期货-衍生品工具" 全链条，用真实案例拆解投资难题，从思维到工具，从策略到风控， 全方位提升你的交易认知。 阶梯课程，从入门到精通 3月2日起每晚 20:00 线上直播，分基础、进阶两大阶段，覆盖期货入门、股指避险、技术指标应用、期 权策略等核心内容，从0到1教你玩转期货，捕捉跨市场高性价比机会。 三重专属权益 学习形式：线上直播+模拟交易+社群答疑 ⏰ 直播启幕：3月2日20:00 期货入市第一课正式开讲 市场波动暗藏机遇，专业赋能把握行情！现在扫码入群，解锁专属学习权益，和资深讲师、同行投资者 一起，洞察期货机遇，布局财富新程～还有机会获赠价值168 ...

截至9月30日，弘业期货股东户数5.44万，较上期减少13.10%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。 2025年1月-9月，弘业期货实现营业收入4.62亿元，同比减少76.77%；归母净利润208.97万元，同比减少 87.27%。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出313.81万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出101.10万元，占比 1.62%；大单买入616.39万元，占比9.91%，卖出829.10万元，占比13.33%。 弘业期货今年以来股价跌5.85%，近5个交易日跌1.29%，近20日跌1.48%，近60日跌0.89%。 资料显示，苏豪弘业期货股份有限公司位于江苏省南京市建邺区江东中路399号3幢，成立日期1995年7 月31日，上市日期2022年8月5日，公司主营业务涉及商品期货经纪、金融期货经纪、期货投资咨询、资 产管理、基金销售和金融资产投资业务。通过全资子公司弘业资本主要从事大宗商品交易及风险管理业 务,通过全资境外子公司弘业国际金融主要从事境外证券及期货交易服务。主营业务收入构成为：大宗 商品交易及风险管理业务67.03%，期货经纪及资产管理业务32.97%。 弘业期货所属 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wednesday saw continued rises in stock index futures, with the overall market showing an upward trend driven by price - rising themes. The bond market was affected by real - estate policies and showed a complex short - term trend but remained optimistic in the medium - term. In the agricultural products market, factors such as weather and production forecasts influenced prices. The black metal market was affected by policies and demand recovery, with steel prices expected to oscillate. The non - ferrous metal market was influenced by macro and geopolitical factors, with prices showing different trends. The shipping and carbon emission markets were affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The energy and chemical market was affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations, with prices fluctuating [20][24][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to rise, with small - cap indexes performing better. Price - rising themes supported the market, and trading volume steadily increased. The trading strategies included going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [20][21][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai was a negative factor for the bond market. In the short - term, the bond market may fluctuate, but in the medium - term, the outlook is relatively optimistic. The trading strategies included a neutral - to - bullish approach for single - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal indexes rose. Weather disturbances in the producing areas affected crop yields, and the domestic soybean market was volatile. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [27][28]. - **Sugar**: ICE and London sugar prices were volatile. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, and India's sugar production increase was adjusted downward. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategies included waiting for the international sugar price to break through the previous high, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting put options in the short - term [30][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia's palm oil exports and production decreased in February. The domestic oil inventory was at a moderately high level, and the market was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation, considering reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and waiting and seeing for options [36][37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: CBOT corn prices rose. The domestic corn market had stable prices in the northeast and falling prices in the north - central region. The inventory situation was complex, and the futures price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included a long - on - dip approach for the outer - market 05 corn, short - selling the 05 corn on rallies, and widening the 05 corn - starch spread [40][41][42]. - **Hogs**: Hog prices were stable overall, with supply pressure remaining. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [43][45]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were stable, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the pk605 - P - 7800 option [47][48][49]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices were stable to slightly falling after the holiday. The trading strategies included short - selling the June contract on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [50][51][52]. - **Apples**: Apple inventory decreased, and high - quality apple prices were firm. The 5 - month contract price was expected to be strong. The trading strategies included going long on dips for the 5 - month contract, long 5 short 10 for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The outer - market cotton price rose. The global cotton supply - demand situation was relatively tight, and the domestic cotton price was expected to rise. The trading strategies included going long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillated at night. After the holiday, the steel inventory increased, and the demand recovery was uncertain. The trading strategies included oscillating trends, shorting the coil - coal ratio on rallies, and waiting and seeing for options [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Australian coking coal prices were inverted, and port coke inventory decreased. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production. The trading strategies included going long on dips for coking coal, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices fell slightly at night. The supply was abundant, and the demand might decline. The trading strategies included a weakening trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys was strongly supported. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: London gold and silver prices rose. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level. The prices of gold and silver were expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options or using a bull call spread strategy [71][72][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium prices oscillated. Geopolitical and macro factors supported precious metals. The trading strategies included going long on platinum on dips, waiting and seeing for palladium, and long platinum short palladium for arbitrage [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The macro environment was favorable for copper consumption, but inventory increases limited the upside. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [79][80]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of northern capacity. The trading strategies included a short - term oscillating - to - strong trend [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price was expected to oscillate strongly. NVIDIA's performance boosted the market, and the supply - demand relationship was supportive. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price was expected to oscillate strongly following the aluminum price. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [88]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was expected to be bought on dips after a correction. The macro and fundamental factors influenced the price. The trading strategies included buying on dips after a correction, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [91][92]. - **Lead**: The lead price was expected to oscillate within a range. The market was affected by inventory and demand. The trading strategies included going long on dips with light positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying deep out - of - the - money call options [93][94]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price was dominated by macro factors. Indonesian policies and demand were the focus. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [96][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price followed the nickel price. The cost was supportive. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage [99][100]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price was affected by the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of short - term long positions [101][102]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market was bearish fundamentally. Attention should be paid to spot transactions. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [104][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price was likely to rise due to supply disruptions. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [107][110]. - **Tin**: The tin price was expected to be strong. NVIDIA's performance boosted demand, and supply factors needed attention. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for options [111][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate of container shipping decreased. The market was affected by the Iran situation and seasonal factors. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation and waiting and seeing [114][115]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The BDI index rose. The market was influenced by demand recovery and geopolitical factors. In the long - term, the supply and demand situation needed attention. The trading strategies included a positive short - term trend [116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market had sporadic transactions, and the EU carbon market was affected by policies and public opinion. The carbon price in China was expected to be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market was in a tight supply situation. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [121][122]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ might slightly increase production in April. The oil price was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [124][125]. - **Asphalt**: The demand for asphalt had not recovered, and the supply was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on the BU2606 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price was affected by supply and geopolitical factors. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend, going long on the FU2605 contract on dips, and waiting and seeing for options [129][131][132]. - **LPG**: The LPG outer - market was strong. The domestic market was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [133][136]. - **Natural Gas**: The natural gas market was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The demand risk decreased, but the supply risk remained. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the US HH second - quarter contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [137][138][139]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices were expected to oscillate. The supply - demand situation was gradually improving. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [141][142]. - **BZ & EB**: The overseas supply of benzene and styrene was in a vacuum period. The domestic supply was stable. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, reverse arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [143][144][145]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market had obvious inventory - building pressure. The supply - demand structure was improving, but the inventory was increasing. The trading strategies included range - oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [146][149]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, narrowing the processing fee on rallies for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [150][151]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips was expected to be tight. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: Some propylene supply returned. The market was stable with a weakening trend. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [155][156]. - **Plastic PP**: The PPI of plastic products declined for consecutive months. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the L 2605 contract, short - selling the PP 2605 contract on a small scale, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [157][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price oscillated. The supply pressure was still there, and the demand was improving. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [160][161]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillated weakly. The supply was high, and the demand was low. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend [163][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated strongly. The supply was high, and the demand was resilient. The trading strategies included going long on dips, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [166][169][170]. - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated strongly, but the fundamentals were weak. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [171][172]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillated widely. The international and domestic supply - demand situations were complex. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend [174]. - **Urea**: Urea factories were reluctant to sell. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on dips, paying attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and shorting put options on corrections [176][177]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory of pulp restricted the rebound. The market was in a supply - surplus situation. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the SP2605 - P - 5250 option [179][182][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The demand for offset printing paper was average. The market rebound was limited. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [184][185]. - **Logs**: The log market had weak supply and demand. The price was affected by supply and demand and cost. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of lightly going long for aggressive investors, and paying attention to the 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The ANRPC had marginal production cuts. The prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the RU 05 contract, going long on the NR 04 contract on opportunities, and holding the RU2605 - RU2609 spread [187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory build - up of domestic automobiles slowed down. The butadiene rubber price fell. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the BR 04 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [190][192].