分析师 1: 各位投资者朋友晚上好，欢迎参加财通农业组织的生猪专家电话会。我是财通证券农业分 析师江璐。那我们可以看到 2025 年，伴随这个猪价一路下跌，整个生猪养殖行业从盈利 转为亏损。能繁母猪产能也进入了一个区划的阶段。那当前时点，其实关于，对于这个 2026 年的一个猪价走势，包括说能繁母猪产能的一个后续的变动。其实还存在诸多的疑 问。那今天晚上我们有幸邀请到了农业农村部生猪预警专家，中国畜牧业协会的石守定老 师，来跟我们做一个分享。 那要不石老师，要不您先基于您监测的这个数据，或者您了解到的一个行业的一个情况， 从大的方向上，方向上来分享一下您对于这个 2026 年一个猪周期的一个走势的判断。包 括说这个猪价的一个大概的节奏，或者说这个高点的，大概这个能看到多少？要不您先分 享一下您的一个观点。 农业农村部生猪预警专家石守定: 这咱是内部的讨论的话，我们就随意的说一说说点东西。现在这个数据其实也算是比较明 了，只不过就是有一些东西出现了一些不太一致的地方。关于产能问题，现在大家其实有 分歧，但是趋势的还是比较明确的。就是整体认为，就是说从高点下来的幅度不是特别的 大。但是这个产能怎么来判断？它是对应 ...

宏观策略（股指期货） 国资委：央企要着眼开辟增长"第二曲线" 日度报告——综合晨报 美国政府结束部分停摆状态，股指盘中 V 型 反转 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-04 受消息面扰动，股指盘中 V 型反转。在宏观空窗期、且叠加贵 金属风波宣泄后，股市以题材、概念为主的结构牛模式再度回 归。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国政府结束部分停摆状态 综 合 黄金大幅反弹收复前日失地，市场恐慌式下跌阶段结束，在触 碰到 60 日均线后亦有抄底资金介入，短期金价步入震荡阶段。 美联储官员陆续发表讲话，米兰表示还需降 100bp。 晨 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 米兰称今年需降息逾一个百分点 美军击落伊朗无人机，地缘局势持续高温，市场风险偏好走低， 美元指数震荡。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：1 月份棕榈油进口量激增 51% 印度 1 月棕榈油进口预计大幅增加，1 月马棕高频数据延续减产 预测 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存大幅下降 油价反弹，美伊摩擦事件导致风险溢价略回升。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 吉大港彻底停摆 弱现实与地缘扰动因素交织，预计短期 04 合约波动幅度仍将较 大建 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of building an agricultural powerhouse as highlighted in the 2026 Central Document No. 1, which focuses on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It stresses the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and the establishment of a diversified food supply system, indicating a shift from "doing well" to "strengthening" the regulation of pig production capacity compared to the 2025 document [7] - The report outlines the goal of stabilizing grain and oil production, with a target grain output of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization actions [7] - It highlights the integration of artificial intelligence with agricultural development, promoting the use of drones and other technologies to enhance agricultural productivity [7] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading seed companies that benefit from breeding innovation and the biological breeding industry, such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds [7] Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 outlines three main areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It calls for a focus on stabilizing grain production and enhancing the diversity of oilseed supply, including increasing soybean production and expanding the cultivation of other oil crops [7] Technological Integration - The report discusses the potential of integrating AI with agriculture, including applications in autonomous farming machinery and AI pest identification, which are expected to drive improvements in agricultural efficiency [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to companies with breeding research advantages, particularly in the context of the biological breeding industry, suggesting companies like Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds as potential investment opportunities [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig price is weakening, and supply pressure remains after the festival, with the current industry breeding profit turning positive and the sentiment for replenishment continuing to recover [2][12] - The industry policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation, which may lead to a better performance of growth stocks in the future [3][12] - The high-quality development of the industry is imperative, with cost-leading and farmer-linked enterprises likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector has seen a slight increase of 0.2%, gradually digesting concerns about slow capacity reduction [2][12] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased from high levels, with prices adjusting weakly to 12.31 CNY/kg [2][12] - The price of 7 kg piglets has risen to 367 CNY, indicating a weak expectation for capacity reduction [2][12] - The policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation is expected to positively influence pig prices and profitability in 2026 [3][12] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.7 CNY/kg, down 3.4% week-on-week [4][13] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to a reduction in imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [4][13] - Integrated enterprises and contract farming are expected to expand market share in 2026 [4][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have rebounded, with significant year-on-year increases for some species [5][15] - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [6][15][16] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with ongoing overseas market expansion [6][16] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is facing pressure with concerns over Q4 2025 performance, but there are signs of recovery in domestic sales [7][17] - Companies like Zhongchong and Peidi are recommended for their strong domestic sales growth potential [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have increased slightly, supported by weather disturbances and procurement demand [8][18] - Corn prices have shown fluctuations, with a slight decrease due to reduced channel stocking [8][18] - The price of eggs has decreased, indicating a potential peak in trade inventory [8][18]

在继续夯实生猪养殖的领先地位的同时，牧原股份自2019年开始进军生猪屠宰肉食业务，以增强公司全 产业链运营的优势。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，按屠宰头数计量，公司于2024年的屠宰与肉食业务位列 全球第五、中国第一。按照收入计量，2021年至2024年间，公司的屠宰肉食业务的收入复合年均增长率 居于中国大型同行业企业之首。 公司已与Charoen Pokphand Foods、丰益、中化香港、香港豫农国际、富达基金、加皇环球资产管理(亚 洲)有限公司、PerseveranceAsset Management、上海高毅及华泰资本投资(与高毅场外掉期有关)、平安人 寿保险、大家人寿、UBS AM Singapore、美的发展控股BVI、Millennium、Jane Street签订基石投资协 议，基石投资者已同意，在满足若干条件的情况下，认购可按发售价购买总额约为53.42亿港元的有关 发售股份数目(向下调整至最接近每手100股H股的完整买卖单位)。 牧原股份(02714)1月29日至2月3日招股。牧原股份计划发行2.7亿股H股，一成于香港作公开发售，最高 发售价为39港元，集资最多106.8亿港元。公开发售方面， ...

在继续夯实生猪养殖的领先地位的同时，牧原股份自2019年开始进军生猪屠宰肉食业务，以增强公司全 产业链运营的优势。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，按屠宰头数计量，公司于2024年的屠宰与肉食业务位列 全球第五、中国第一。按照收入计量，2021年至2024年间，公司的屠宰肉食业务的收入复合年均增长率 居于中国大型同行业企业之首。 来源：智通财经网 牧原股份(02714)1月29日至2月3日招股。牧原股份计划发行2.7亿股H股，一成于香港作公开发售，最高 发售价为39港元，集资最多106.8亿港元。公开发售方面，截至2月2日晚上7时多，牧原暂录得孖展18.4 亿港元，以公开集资额10.68亿计，超购0.7倍。牧原股份每手100股，一手入场费3939.3港元。牧原股份 预期将于2月6日挂牌买卖。摩根士丹利、中信証券、高盛为联席保荐人。 招股书显示，牧原股份为生猪养殖行业的领导者，采取的垂直一体化商业模式已覆盖生猪育种、生猪养 殖、饲料生产、屠宰肉食的生猪全产业链条。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021年起，按生猪产能及出 栏量计量，公司是全球第一大生猪养殖企业，生猪出栏量连续四年全球第一。按生猪出栏量计算，公司 的全球市场份 ...

在继续夯实生猪养殖的领先地位的同时，牧原股份自2019年开始进军生猪屠宰肉食业务，以增强公司全 产业链运营的优势。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，按屠宰头数计量，公司于2024年的屠宰与肉食业务位列 全球第五、中国第一。按照收入计量，2021年至2024年间，公司的屠宰肉食业务的收入复合年均增长率 居于中国大型同行业企业之首。 公司已与Charoen Pokphand Foods、丰益、中化香港、香港豫农国际、富达基金、加皇环球资产管理(亚 洲)有限公司、PerseveranceAsset Management、上海高毅及华泰资本投资(与高毅场外掉期有关)、平安人 寿保险、大家人寿、UBS AM Singapore、美的发展控股BVI、Millennium、Jane Street签订基石投资协 议，基石投资者已同意，在满足若干条件的情况下，认购可按发售价购买总额约为53.42亿港元的有关 发售股份数目(向下调整至最接近每手100股H股的完整买卖单位)。 招股书显示，牧原股份为生猪养殖行业的领导者，采取的垂直一体化商业模式已覆盖生猪育种、生猪养 殖、饲料生产、屠宰肉食的生猪全产业链条。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021 ...

在继续夯实生猪养殖的领先地位的同时，牧原股份自2019年开始进军生猪屠宰肉食业务，以增强公司全 产业链运营的优势。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，按屠宰头数计量，公司于2024年的屠宰与肉食业务位列 全球第五、中国第一。按照收入计量，2021年至2024年间，公司的屠宰肉食业务的收入复合年均增长率 居于中国大型同行业企业之首。 招股书显示，牧原股份为生猪养殖行业的领导者，采取的垂直一体化商业模式已覆盖生猪育种、生猪养 殖、饲料生产、屠宰肉食的生猪全产业链条。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021年起，按生猪产能及出 栏量计量，公司是全球第一大生猪养殖企业，生猪出栏量连续四年全球第一。按生猪出栏量计算，公司 的全球市场份额从2021年的2.6%增长到2024年的5.6%，于2024年已经超过第二至第四的市场参与者的 合计市场份额数。 智通财经APP获悉，牧原股份(02714)1月29日至2月3日招股。牧原股份计划发行2.7亿股H股，一成于香 港作公开发售，最高发售价为39港元，集资最多106.8亿港元。公开发售方面，截至2月2日晚上7时多， 牧原暂录得孖展18.4亿港元，以公开集资额10.68亿计，超购0.7倍。牧原股份每 ...

生猪养殖板块业绩预告的线索 20260202 摘要 当前生猪养殖行业普遍亏损，销售价格约为每公斤 11.5 元，而部分企 业成本超过 13.5 元，导致每头猪亏损高达 220-240 元。牧原股份虽盈 利，但盈利仅为每头 10 元，成本控制在 11.4 元/公斤左右。 各公司成本差异显著，高低之间差距达 1.5-2 元/公斤。尽管部分公司通 过提高 PSY 和成活率降低成本，但行业内成本梯队分化明显，成本控制 能力是盈利的关键因素。 预计 2026 年一季度行业盈利状况将持续分化，部分企业盈利，部分企 业亏损。行业整体资产负债率可能上升，部分公司或将调整母猪存栏量 以应对亏损和成本下降。 2025 年全行业成本呈下降趋势，温氏股份从 12.7 元降至 12 元，牧原 股份从 12.8 元降至 11.4 元，新希望六和从 13.5 元降至 13.2 元，主要 得益于饲料改进和管理效率提升。牧原股份 2024-2025 年成本下降约 4 元。 2021-2022 年全行业亏损 402 亿元，牧原股份盈利 200 亿元，其余 13 家公司合计亏损 600 亿元。2023-2025 年全行业盈利 140 亿元， 牧原 ...

Core Insights - The Hurun Research Institute has released the "2025 Hurun China Unicorn Graduation List," ranking companies founded after 2000 with a valuation of over $1 billion, with Sichuan Dekang Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Food Group Co., Ltd. being the only agricultural enterprise from Sichuan on the list, ranking 263rd [9] - Dekang Group achieved a remarkable 92% growth rate in value, positioning itself as a leader in the agricultural sector, with a company value of 25 billion yuan, ranking seventh among 15 agricultural enterprises [9] - The Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to increase the total output value of the livestock industry chain by 269 billion yuan within 3-5 years, with Dekang Group playing a pivotal role as a leading enterprise in the pig industry [9] Industry Development - Dekang Group is developing a comprehensive pig industry chain, including breeding, feed, farming, slaughtering, processing, and sales, in collaboration with Yibin to promote the "Hundred Villages, Million Pigs" project [11] - The company has invested in a state-of-the-art pig slaughtering and meat processing facility in Yibin, which is the largest in Southwest China, with an automated production line capable of processing 450 pigs per hour, significantly improving efficiency [10] - The cold chain system for the deep processing project has a total investment of 148 million yuan, with a pre-cooling storage capacity of nearly 20,000 tons [11] Technological Innovation - Dekang Group has established a complete breeding work system in collaboration with Sichuan Agricultural University, focusing on improving quality and developing its hybrid production model [13] - The company has launched an intelligent breeding platform, "Deyu Cloud," which enhances data accuracy and real-time synchronization across the entire industry chain [13] - The company has invested 50 million yuan in a training base for the "Hundred Villages, Million Pigs" project, focusing on high-tech applications in pig farming [15] Community Engagement - The "company + family farm" model has been successfully implemented, allowing farmers to benefit from technical support and financial incentives, leading to increased productivity and income [17] - Dekang Group's model has expanded to 14 provinces, creating job opportunities for over 150,000 farmers [18] - The company has established factory stores in various cities, allowing consumers direct access to fresh pork products, and has received recognition as one of the most popular pork brands in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [18] Future Outlook - Dekang Group aims to continue its focus on integrating the entire pig industry chain, achieving technological breakthroughs, and promoting green and low-carbon development [19] - The company is committed to fulfilling its social responsibilities while driving rural revitalization and contributing to the agricultural sector's growth [19]