| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/2 | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/8/25 2025/8/29 2025/9/1 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | 2025/8/25 | 2025/8/29 | | 2025/9/1 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1143.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 999.0 | 996.0 | 943.0 | -56.0 | -53.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1130.0 | 1104.0 | -9.0 | -26.0 | FG01合约 | 1191.0 | 1182.0 | 1137.0 | -54.0 | -45.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Bearish [3] - Soda ash investment view: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution logic is becoming long - term, but the weak reality remains, and the market sentiment fluctuates sharply. The glass market has poor fundamentals and prices are under pressure. The soda ash market has a high supply, neutral demand, cost support, but large near - month inventory and delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4][42] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. Daily output is stable this week, with the industry start - up rate slightly increasing, and supply may increase slightly next week [3] - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [3] - Inventory: Neutral. Inventory is being depleted, with enterprise inventory at 62.566 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decline of 1.63%, and a year - on - year decline of 11.31%. The inventory days are 26.7 days, 0.5 days less than the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 09 - 01 spread both declined [3] - Valuation: Neutral. Current prices are mainly under pressure, but costs provide support [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3] - Investment View: Bearish. Fundamentals are poor, and prices are under pressure [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage; Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Neutral. Supply decreased this week, but is expected to increase next week as previously shut - down enterprises resume production [4] - Demand: Neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, with an increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume, but terminal demand is difficult to improve, and there is still negative feedback pressure [4] - Inventory: Neutral. Inventory decreased slightly, with total manufacturer inventory at 186750 tons, a decrease of 4330 tons from last Thursday, a decline of 2.27% [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward [4] - Valuation: Neutral. Futures prices adjusted downward, but costs provide support [4] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4] - Investment View: Neutral. The weak reality continues, inventory is high, and sentiment is volatile [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage; Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, prices were under pressure. The main contract closed at 1182 (+9), and the Shahe spot price was 1060 (-12) [6] Soda Ash - Price: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1296 (-28), and the Shahe spot price was 1211 (+4) [12] Spread/Basis - Soda ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened [24] - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened [24] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. This week, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 21st. The industry start - up rate was 75.68%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 21st. The industry capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, the same as on the 21st. Glass production profit fluctuated [27] - Demand: Under pressure in the off - season. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor, but inventory is being depleted [32] Soda Ash - Supply: Output decreased temporarily. This week, soda ash output was 719,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,300 tons, a decline of 6.78%. Alkali plant profit decreased [34][35] - Demand: Neutral. Overall demand is neutral, short - term direct demand is stable, and photovoltaic daily melting volume has rebounded, but terminal demand is poor, and there is still negative feedback pressure on prices. Inventory decreased slightly [38]

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/28 | | 2025/8/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/28 | | 2025/8/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1143.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 997.0 | 970.0 | 996.0 | -1.0 | 26.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1121.0 | 1102.0 | 1130.0 | 9.0 | 28.0 | FG01合约 | 1173.0 | 1174.0 | 1182.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1121.0 | 1102.0 | 1130.0 | 9. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [4]. - The prices of ferroalloys are continuing to extrude the over - valued part caused by the "anti - involution" expectation. The market is gradually shifting from trading expectations to trading the real situation. The continuous accumulation of inventory at the steel and hot - rolled coil ends makes the market worried about the demand in the peak season. The prices of the black sector may continue to be under pressure in the future [12]. - The prices of industrial silicon are pulled down by the weak reality. The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems have not changed fundamentally. The supply pressure exceeds the demand support, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price fluctuates due to the influence of news, with high uncertainty [16][18]. - The glass market is running stably, with inventory pressure decreasing but demand not significantly improved. The price adjustment space is limited, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. The price of soda ash is oscillating, and in the long term, the price center may gradually rise, but the increase space is restricted due to the weak demand [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 7840 tons to 198,897 tons, and the position decreased by 92,457 lots to 1.05571 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3346 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.15%). The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 24,760 tons, and the position increased by 387,729 lots to 1.166633 million lots. The Lechong and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall production of steel is high, and the demand is insufficient, putting strong pressure on steel prices [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 787.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.38% (-3.00), and the position increased by 1118 lots to 473,600 lots. The weighted position was 782,500 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.43 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.88% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased. The average daily hot metal production decreased, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased. The apparent demand of the five major steel products continued to rise, but the inventory accumulation rate did not slow down significantly. The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines, and attention should be paid to the future shipping progress. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Information**: On August 29, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) fell 0.86% to 5792 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 48 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF509) fell 1.03% to 5566 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 184 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the prices of both showed a downward trend [9][10][11]. - **Fundamentals and Trading Suggestions**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market has subsided, and the prices are moving closer to the fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of inventory at the steel end makes the market worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and production is still increasing. It is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon has no obvious contradiction, and attention should be paid to downstream demand changes. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [12][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8390 yuan/ton, down 2.10% (-180), and the position increased by 15,278 lots to 524,375 lots. The spot prices of different grades decreased. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-110), and the position decreased by 535 lots to 320,807 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [15][17]. - **Fundamentals and Price Expectations**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems of industrial silicon have not changed. The supply pressure exceeds the demand support, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price fluctuates due to news, with high uncertainty. The price is expected to have fluctuations, and the support level is at 47,000 yuan/ton [16][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Information**: The spot prices of glass in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, and the inventory days decreased by 0.5 days. The spot price of soda ash was 1180 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 1.09% [20][21]. - **Price Expectations**: The glass market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and the price may rise if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase space is restricted by weak demand [20][21].

纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1205元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1311元/吨，基差为-106元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.75万吨，较前一周减少2.27%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、23年以来，纯 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on glass and soda ash, covering price, profit, inventory, and production and sales data from August 20 to August 28, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Glass Market Price - The price of 5mm large - plate glass in various regions had different changes. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe Security decreased by 34 from August 20 to August 27, while the price in Wuhan Changli remained unchanged [2] - FG09 contract price decreased by 12 week - on - week and increased by 1 on August 27 compared to the previous day; FG01 contract price increased by 13 week - on - week and increased by 2 on August 27 compared to the previous day [2] Profit - North China coal - fired glass profit decreased by 22 week - on - week and 7.9 on August 27 compared to the previous day; North China natural gas glass profit decreased by 26 week - on - week and 9 on August 27 compared to the previous day [2] Production and Sales - Shahe glass factory's production and sales were fair, with traders' low - price shipments at around 1104 and general sales. Hubei factories' glass was sold at around 1000 with fair transactions. The production - sales ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 104, 105, 113, and 101 respectively [2] Group 3: Soda Ash Market Price - The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1210 from August 20 to August 27, while the price of heavy soda ash in Central China decreased by 20 [2] - SA05 contract price increased by 11 week - on - week and decreased by 2 on August 27 compared to the previous day; SA01 contract price decreased by 2 week - on - week and decreased by 4 on August 27 compared to the previous day; SA09 contract price decreased by 18 week - on - week and decreased by 9 on August 27 compared to the previous day [2] Profit - North China ammonia - soda process profit increased by 7 week - on - week and 1.9 on August 27 compared to the previous day; North China combined - soda process profit increased by 8.4 week - on - week and 1.6 on August 27 compared to the previous day [2] Inventory - Soda ash factories had a slight reduction in inventory, while delivery warehouses had a slight accumulation, resulting in an overall slight reduction in inventory [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Glass - Attention events include glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [6] - Supply is expected to increase, with stable production last week and potential supply pressure after glass technological transformation [7] - Demand is currently at a low level but is expected to rise during the peak season [7] - Inventory has increased due to weakening speculative demand and spot sales pressure [7] - Cost has decreased, and profit has shown mixed performance [7] - Given significant macro - disturbances, it is advisable to wait and see, with the glass index operating in the range of 1090 - 1200 - 1230 [7] 纯碱 - Attention events include alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [8] - Supply has reached a new high, which exerts downward pressure on the market [8] - Demand for heavy alkali is expected to decline, while light alkali demand is relatively stable [8] - Inventory in alkali plants continues to accumulate due to strong supply and weak demand [8] - Cost has increased, and profit has declined [8] - Considering strong macro - disturbances, it is advisable to wait and see, with the soda ash index operating in the range of 1270 - 1390 [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - Mainstream market glass prices are weakly trending downward [10] Supply - Last week, float glass production was 1.107 million tons (unchanged), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.34% (unchanged). Technological transformation may end before the peak season, leading to potential supply pressure [15] Demand - In July, the rising futures price drove mid - and downstream replenishment, which is now nearly over. Speculative sentiment has weakened, and spot prices have been falling. Current downstream demand is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to increase. On July 31, the order days of downstream deep - processing plants were 9.55 days (+0.25). Last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 22.1605 million weight boxes (+1.399 million) [19] Inventory - Speculative demand has weakened, and spot - futures traders have sold off, squeezing glass factory sales and production, resulting in increased inventory. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes (+180,000), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.36 million weight boxes (-20,000) [23] Cost and Profit - Last week, glass cost decreased, and profit showed mixed performance. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1411 yuan/ton (-18 yuan); using coal - made gas was 1011 yuan/ton (-12 yuan); using petroleum coke was 1046 yuan/ton (-22 yuan) [34] Basis and Calendar Spread - As of August 22, the basis of glass 01 was - 173, glass 05 was - 269, and glass 09 was 3. The basis has a weak driving force on the market. The spread between glass 9 - 1 contracts was - 176, and between 1 - 5 contracts was - 96. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [43][47] Soda Ash Price - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are fluctuating weakly downward [50] Supply - Soda ash production has rebounded month - on - month, reaching a new weekly high, which has a certain downward driving force on the market. Last week, soda ash production was 771,400 tons (+10,100), including light soda ash production of 346,200 tons (+14,600) and heavy soda ash production of 425,200 tons (-4,500) [56] Demand - There is an expectation of reduced production in photovoltaic glass and an expected increase in float glass production. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily production of float and photovoltaic glass was 247,755 tons. The apparent demand for soda ash increased month - on - month, reaching 754,400 tons (+21,800) last week [62] Inventory - With increasing supply and decreasing demand, the inventory in alkali plants continues to accumulate. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons (+17,000), including light soda ash inventory of 773,100 tons (+13,100) and heavy soda ash inventory of 1.1377 million tons (+3,900) [69] Profit and Cost - According to Steel Union data, last week, the cost of soda ash increased, and profit declined. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash by the joint - alkali method in the East China region is around 1260 yuan [75] Basis, Calendar Spread, and Price Spread - As of August 22, the basis of soda ash 01 contracts was - 100, 05 contracts was - 152, and 09 contracts was 0. The basis has a weak driving force, and it is advisable to wait and see. The spread between soda ash 9 - 1 contracts was - 100, and between 1 - 5 contracts was - 53. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities. The price spread between glass and soda ash 01 contracts was - 153, 05 contracts was - 110, and 09 contracts was - 229. It is advisable to wait and see regarding the glass - soda ash price spread [82][86][91]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the glass and soda ash markets, including price trends, production and sales, and inventory levels [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Market - **Price Trends**: The prices of 5mm large glass plates in various regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm large glass plates in Shijiazhuang decreased by 21 - 40 yuan from August 18th to 25th, while the price in South China remained stable [2] - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of glass factories in Shijiazhuang were relatively good, with a production - sales ratio of 112. The production and sales in Hubei were also good, with a ratio of 120. However, the sales of traders in Shijiazhuang were average [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China's coal - fired glass decreased from 229.2 yuan on August 18th to 207.3 yuan on August 25th, a decrease of 21.9 yuan. The cost of North China's coal - fired glass increased slightly by 2.1 yuan during the same period [2] Soda Ash Market - **Price Trends**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions also had different trends. The price of heavy soda ash in Shijiazhuang decreased by 30 yuan from August 18th to 25th, while the price in South China remained unchanged [2] - **Industry Situation**: Soda ash factories had a slight reduction in inventory [2] - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China's ammonia - soda process decreased from - 124.8 yuan on August 18th to - 146.7 yuan on August 25th, a decrease of 21.9 yuan. The profit of North China's combined - soda process increased by 18.3 yuan during the same period [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Macro - warming and coking coal accident news drove the soda ash futures to rebound. Fundamentally, weekly production rebounded significantly, and the inventory continued to build up. With current weekly production, demand was significantly in excess. Recently, spot sales were weak. In the medium - term, after the second - quarter PV glass installation rush, PV glass capacity growth slowed, float glass capacity remained flat, and there was still pressure on supply - demand in the future, with potential for further cold - repair. Overall, there was no growth expectation for soda ash demand. Without actual capacity exit or load reduction, inventory would face more pressure. Track policy implementation and soda ash plant load adjustment [1]. Natural Rubber - Persistent rainy weather in internal and external production areas disrupted upstream supply, keeping raw material prices high. The de - stocking rate of spot inventory in Qingdao slowed, and with the incremental release of alternative plantings in Yunnan, China's social inventory increased, intensifying market bearish sentiment. In terms of demand, although agents' purchase volume might slightly increase at the end of the month to meet monthly targets, downstream buyers mainly continued regular restocking. Adverse external factors might slow down trading in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region and potentially halt some mining and engineering operations, negatively affecting replacement demand. Affected by the Fed's dovish stance, market sentiment improved, driving up rubber prices, but prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the 01 contract was 15,000 - 16,500. Monitor raw material supply during the peak production season in major producing areas and consider short - selling if supply is smooth [3]. Polysilicon - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory build - up pressure. Due to the previous sharp price increase above the full - cost level and the addition of two new delivery brands on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, future warehouse receipts were expected to increase. Currently, the price would mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips. When the price is high, buy put options during low - volatility periods to short. Technically, the futures price might choose a direction to break out in a converging triangle, and consider buying straddle options when volatility is low. Pay attention to position control and risk management [5]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost side, raw material prices started to rise, and electricity prices in the southwest region would gradually increase during the dry season, raising the cost center of industrial silicon. Although industrial silicon production increased month - on - month, there were also news of capacity clearance, with small furnaces potentially shutting down. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, supply pressure will ease. Strategically, consider buying on dips. However, note that as production increases, inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are emerging. The main price fluctuation range might be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and hold long positions established at the previous low of 8,000 - 8,500 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: North China, East China, Central China, and South China quotes remained unchanged. Glass 2505 rose 0.87% to 1280 yuan/ton, and Glass 2509 rose 0.20%. The 05 basis decreased 8.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest quotes were stable. Soda Ash 2505 rose 1.02% to 1393 yuan/ton, and Soda Ash 2509 was flat. The 05 basis decreased 48.28% [1]. Supply - Soda Ash: The operating rate on August 22 was 88.48%, up 1.33% from August 15, and weekly production was 77.14 tons, up 1.33% [1]. - Glass: Float glass daily melting volume and PV glass daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased 0.28% to 6360.60 ten - thousand heavy boxes. Soda ash factory inventory rose 0.89% to 191.06 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased 6.37% to 49.63 tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased 0.09% month - on - month, construction area decreased 2.43%, completion area decreased 0.03%, and sales area decreased 6.50% [1]. Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 1.37% to 14,850 yuan/ton. The whole latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased 8.21%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was flat at 14,600 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased 27.32% [3]. - In terms of month - to - month spreads, the 9 - 1 spread decreased 5.24%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased 5.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased 5.21% [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased 44.23% to 392.60 thousand tons, India's production increased 30.82% to 62.40 thousand tons, and China's production decreased 6.59% to 96.40 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased 1.06% to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires decreased 1.67% to 63.09%. In July, domestic tire production decreased 8.16% to 9436.40 thousand pieces, and tire exports increased 10.51% to 6031.00 thousand pieces. In June, natural rubber imports decreased 2.47% to 46.34 tons [3]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased 0.50% to 616731 tons. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased 3.47% to 44857 tons. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased 3.71%, and the outbound rate decreased 3.28% [3]. Polysilicon Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of N - type polysilicon materials remained unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased 7.28%. Futures prices: the main contract rose 0.34% to 21580 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased 26.67%, and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased 36.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production increased 1.57% to 12.29 GM, and polysilicon production decreased 0.68% to 2.91 tons. - Monthly: Polysilicon production increased 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased 47.48% to 0.12 tons, exports decreased 3.92% to 0.21 tons, and net exports decreased 32.44% to 0.10 tons. Silicon wafer production decreased 10.35% to 52.75 GM, imports decreased 53.06% to 0.03 tons, exports decreased 24.68% to 0.46 tons, and net exports decreased 21.43% to 0.43 tons. Silicon wafer demand increased 0.21% to 58.54 GM [5]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased 2.89% to 24.90 tons, silicon wafer inventory decreased 12.07% to 17.41 GM, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased 1.24% to 6540.00 [5]. Industrial Silicon Prices and Spreads - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rose 1.08% to 9320 yuan/ton, and its basis rose 33.66%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon rose 2.37% to 8650 yuan/ton, and its basis rose 53.47%. In terms of month - to - month spreads, the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased 75.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread increased 100.00% [6]. Fundamental Data - Monthly: National industrial silicon production increased 3.23% to 33.83 tons, Xinjiang's production decreased 15.21% to 15.03 tons, Yunnan's production increased 153.86% to 4.12 tons, and Sichuan's production increased 31.05% to 4.85 tons. The national operating rate increased 2.47% to 52.61%, Xinjiang's decreased 18.21% to 52.59%, Yunnan's increased 133.76% to 32.89%, and Sichuan's increased 56.81% to 36.96%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased 4.54% to 19.98 tons, polysilicon production increased 5.10% to 10.10 tons, recycled aluminum alloy production increased 1.63% to 62.50 tons, and industrial silicon exports increased 8.32% to 7.40 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased 2.65% to 12.01 tons, Yunnan's increased 1.59% to 3.19 tons, Sichuan's increased 0.89% to 2.28 tons. Social inventory decreased 0.37% to 54.30 tons, warehouse receipt inventory decreased 0.23% to 25.52 tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased 0.49% to 28.78 tons [6]. Logs Prices and Spreads - Log futures prices: Log 2509 rose 0.31% to 803.5, Log 2511 rose 0.61% to 820.0, and Log 2601 rose 0.67% to 831.5. The 9 - 11 spread decreased to - 16.5, the 9 - 1 spread decreased to - 28.0. The 09 contract basis decreased to - 53.5, the 11 contract basis decreased to - 70.0, and the 01 contract basis decreased to - 81.5. Spot prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged [7]. Supply - Monthly: The volume of logs in transit in ports decreased 1.51% to 173.3 million cubic meters, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased 11.32% to 47.0 [7]. Inventory - Weekly: China's main port log inventory decreased 0.33% to 305.00 million cubic meters, Shandong's increased 0.32% to 186.00 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's increased 1.22% to 99.50 million cubic meters [7]. Demand - Weekly: China's average daily log outbound volume increased 2% to 6.45 million cubic meters, Shandong's decreased 3% to 3.49 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's increased 4% to 2.42 million cubic meters [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - In the context of macro - warming and driven by news of coking coal accidents, the soda ash futures market rebounded. Fundamentally, weekly production increased significantly, but the demand was obviously in excess under the current weekly production. In the medium - term, after the second - quarter rush for photovoltaic installation, the growth of photovoltaic glass capacity slowed down, and the float glass capacity remained flat. There is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, and there may be further cold - repair expectations. Without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation of soda ash plants [1]. Natural Rubber - Due to continuous rainy weather in both domestic and foreign production areas, upstream supply fell short of expectations, and raw material prices remained high. The de - stocking rate of spot inventory in Qingdao slowed down, and with the incremental release of alternative plantings in Yunnan, China's social inventory increased, intensifying the market's bearish sentiment. In terms of demand, although agents may slightly increase their purchases to meet monthly tasks at the end of the month, downstream demand mainly continues with regular replenishment. Affected by external factors, trading in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may slow down, and mining and engineering operations in some other regions may be suspended, which is negative for the replacement demand. Overall, affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment improved, driving up rubber prices, but rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main production areas, and short positions can be considered if the raw material supply goes smoothly [3]. Polysilicon - In August, both supply and demand of polysilicon increased, but the supply growth rate was relatively large, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation. Due to the previous sharp rise in prices above the full - cost level and the addition of two new delivery brands by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, it is expected that the number of warehouse receipts will further increase. Currently, attention can be paid to the constraints of energy consumption and green - electricity ratio in promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit possibly between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. When the price is high, put options can be bought during low - volatility periods to try short positions. Technically, the futures price may choose a direction to break through in a converging triangle, and straddle options can be bought when the volatility is low. Investors are advised to pay attention to position control and risk management in advance [5]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost perspective, raw material prices started to rise, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, causing the cost center of industrial silicon to rise. Although the production of industrial silicon increased month - on - month recently, there were also news of production - capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some production capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. However, it should be noted that as production increases, inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure are emerging. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and long positions established at the previous low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton should be held [6]. Logs - No overall core view is explicitly stated in the log report, but data on price, supply, inventory, and demand are presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass:华北报价1140元/吨,华东报价1190元/吨,华中报价1090元/吨,华南报价1230元/吨,价格 remained unchanged. Glass 2505 rose 0.87% to 1280 yuan/ton, and Glass 2509 rose 0.20% to 999 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 8.53% to - 140 yuan/ton [1]. - Soda Ash:华北报价1350元/吨,华东 and华中报价1250元/吨,西北报价1020元/吨, all unchanged. Soda Ash 2505 rose 1.02% to 1393 yuan/ton, and Soda Ash 2509 remained unchanged at 1226 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 48.28% to - 43 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Soda Ash: The operating rate on August 22 was 88.48%, up 1.33% from August 15, and the weekly output was 77.14 tons, up 1.33% [1]. - Float Glass: The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 15.96 tons [1]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass Factory: The inventory on August 22 was 63.606 million weight - boxes, up 0.28% from August 15 [1]. - Soda Ash Factory: The inventory on August 22 was 1.9106 million tons, up 0.89% from August 15. The inventory in delivery warehouses was 496,300 tons, up 6.37% [1]. Real Estate Data - New Construction Area: The current value is - 0.09%, up 0.09% from the previous value [1]. - Construction Area: The current value is 0.05%, down 2.43% from the previous value [1]. - Completion Area: The current value is - 0.22%, down 0.03% from the previous value [1]. - Sales Area: The current value is - 6.55%, down 6.50% from the previous value [1]. Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - Spot: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 1.37% to 14,850 yuan/ton. The whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 8.21% to - 1,055 yuan/ton. Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,600 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased by 27.32% to - 1,305 yuan/ton [3]. - Raw Materials: The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market rose 0.71% to 49.50 Thai baht/kg, and the FOB mid - price of glue rose 0.45% to 55.00 Thai baht/kg [3]. - Futures Month - to - Month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.24% to - 1005 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.00% to - 100 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.21% to 1110 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - Production: In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, up 44.23%; India's production was 62,400 tons, up 30.82%; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, down 12.03%; China's production was 103,200 tons, down 6.80% [3]. - Tire Production: In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million pieces, down 8.16%; tire exports were 66.65 million pieces, up 10.51% [3]. - Import: In June, the total import of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In July, the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 630,000 tons, up 5.00% [3]. Inventory - Bonded Area: The inventory was 616,731 tons, down 0.50% [3]. - Futures Warehouse: The inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE was 44,857 tons, down 3.47% [3]. - Warehouse Rates: In Qingdao, the inbound rate of dry rubber in bonded warehouses decreased by 3.71%, and the outbound rate increased. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade decreased by 0.72%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - N - type Reclaimed Feedstock: The average price remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 7.28% to - 2,580 yuan/ton [5]. - N - type Silicon Wafers: The average price of 210mm wafers and 210R wafers remained unchanged at 1.58 yuan/piece and 1.38 yuan/piece respectively [5]. - Cells and Components: The average prices of single - crystal Topcon cells (210R), Topcon components (210mm for distributed), and N - type 210mm components for centralized projects remained unchanged [5]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract rose 0.34% to 21,580 yuan/ton. The current - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 26.67% to - 190 yuan/ton, the first - to - second - continuous spread increased by 36.00% to 170 yuan/ton, and the second - to - third - continuous spread remained unchanged [5]. Fundamentals - Weekly: The silicon wafer production was 12.29 GM, up 1.57%; the polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, down 0.68% [5]. - Monthly: The polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 5.10%; the import was 12,000 tons, up 47.48%; the export was 21,000 tons, down 3.92%; the net export was 10,000 tons, down 32.44%. The silicon wafer production was 52.75 GM, down 10.35%; the import was 30,000 tons, down 53.06%; the export was 460,000 tons, down 24.68%; the net export was 430,000 tons, down 21.43%. The silicon wafer demand was 58.54 GM, up 0.21% [5]. Inventory - Polysilicon: The inventory was 249,000 tons, up 2.89%; the number of warehouse receipts was 6,540, up 1.24% [5]. - Silicon Wafers: The inventory was 17.41 GM, down 12.07% [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - East China Oxygen - Passed SI5530: The price rose 1.08% to 9,320 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 33.66% to 675 yuan/ton [6]. - East China SI4210: The price remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 127.27% to 125 yuan/ton [6]. - Xinjiang 99 Silicon: The price rose 2.37% to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 53.47% to 775 yuan/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 75.00% to - 35 yuan/ton; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 100.00% to 0 yuan/ton; the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 4.29% to - 365 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 100.00% to 10 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 140.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamentals - Production: National industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, up 3.23%. Xinjiang's production was 150,300 tons, down 15.21%; Yunnan's production was 41,200 tons, up 153.86%; Sichuan's production was 48,500 tons, up 31.05% [6]. - Operating Rate: The national operating rate was 52.61%, up 2.47%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 52.59%, down 18.21%; Yunnan's operating rate was 32.89%, up 133.76%; Sichuan's operating rate was 36.96%, up 56.81% [6]. - Other Productions: Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production also had corresponding changes [6]. - Exports: Industrial silicon exports were 74,000 tons, up 8.32% [6]. Inventory - Xinjiang Factory: The inventory was 120,100 tons, up 2.65% [6]. - Yunnan Factory: The inventory was 31,900 tons, up 1.59% [6]. - Sichuan Factory: The inventory was 22,800 tons, up 0.89% [6]. - Social Inventory: The inventory was 543,000 tons, down 0.37% [6]. - Warehouse Receipt Inventory: The inventory was 255,200 tons, down 0.23% [6]. - Non - Warehouse Receipt Inventory: The inventory was 287,800 tons, down 0.49% [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log Futures: Log 2509 rose 0.31% to 803.5 yuan/ton; Log 2511 rose 0.61% to 820 yuan/ton; Log 2601 rose 0.67% to 831.5 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased to - 16.5 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread decreased to - 28 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis decreased to - 53.5 yuan/ton, the 11 contract basis decreased to - 70 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis decreased to - 81.5 yuan/ton [7]. - Spot: The prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao and Taicang ports remained unchanged [7]. Outer - Market Quotes - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine remained at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 128 euros/JAS cubic meter [7]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased to 7.158 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 815.94 yuan [7]. Supply - In July, the shipping volume in the port was 1.733 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from June. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 47, down 11.32% [7]. Inventory - China: The inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, down 0.33% [7]. - Shandong: The inventory was 1.86 million cubic meters, up 0.32% [7]. - Jiangsu: The inventory was 995,000 cubic meters, up 1.22% [7]. Demand - China: The daily average outbound volume was 64,500 cubic meters, up 2% [7]. - Shandong: The daily average outbound volume was 34,900 cubic meters, down 3% [7]. - Jiangsu: The daily average outbound volume was 24,200 cubic meters, up 4% [7].