1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间:2025/12/26 、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 隐波指教分位教与波动率价差分位费排名图 1、隐波分位数代表当前品种隐波在历史上的水平。分位数高代表当前稳波偏高。分位数低代表稳疲偏低。2、波动率价差书急按指数一切史皮 动率。 隐含波动率分位数排名 历史波动率分位数排名 en 6-15 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 ore 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 ■ 0 ora 1 免费声明：本文所有内得均不符成改造仪、对文中信息的准明情和克题性不作任何保证，仅供学习交流。我受课模或作出的任何放受决策与平企司完美。就仅仅为我 公司所有、未来书面许可。任何扎格和个人不得以世同形式相談、提到发布。如引用、代度、规控班出处为水安和货公司、且 ...

图为钯期货主力2606合约日K线 12月26日上午，铂、钯期货价格呈现高位震荡走势。其中，铂期货主力2606合约开盘不久迅速涨停，随后涨停板打开，上午收盘报701.20元/克，涨幅为 8.65%；钯期货主力2606合约盘初快速走高，涨幅一度超9%，随后涨幅收窄，上午收盘报539.35元/克，涨幅为2.42%。 图为铂期货主力2606合约日K线 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，此轮铂族期货价格走高，或与贵金属板块整体上行的带动密切相关。从品种属性来看，铂兼具金融与工业属性，与白银 特征相近，后者的强势上行或从情绪面及比价效应两个维度对铂价形成提振。而钯中长期受汽车电动化转型压制，基本面相对疲弱，后续价格走势大概率 弱于铂。 展望后市，顾冯达建议，在年末行情波动较大的环境下，交易者应做好风控与仓位管理，对铂、钯等高波动品种宜保持谨慎，整体维持稳健配置结构。 ...

黄海之滨，胶州湾畔，资本市场的浪潮与实业发展的脉搏同频共振。 青岛，作为沿海重要中心城市和计划单列市，既是山东经济发展的"龙头"，也是北方资本市场活跃的高地。"十四五"时期，青岛资本市场在 风浪中强身健体，在改革中破浪前行，交出了一份沉甸甸的成绩单：上市公司数量稳居北方城市第三位，直接融资规模创下新高，期货与衍 生品市场特色鲜明。资本市场"青岛板块"正以前所未有的韧性与活力，为区域经济高质量发展注入澎湃动能。 展望"十五五"，青岛资本市场将继续深耕蓝海，强化枢纽功能，努力打造公司治理规范、竞争优势突出、服务实体经济质效显著的资本市 场"青岛样板"。 资本市场基本盘稳固 上市公司是资本市场的基石，也是区域经济发展的缩影。"十四五"以来，青岛把推动企业上市作为经济转型升级的重要抓手，多层次资本市 场体系日益完善，企业上市梯队呈现出量质齐升的良好态势。 数据显示，五年间，青岛境内外上市公司数量增加33家，现有86家，较"十三五"末增长46%。其中，境内上市公司数量增加23家，现有65 家，较"十三五"末增长48%，在北方城市中仅次于北京和天津，位列第3位。这一数字的背后，是青岛资本市场生态的持续优化。目前，青 岛有 ...

Core Insights - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, with prices increasing by 38% in less than a month, attracting considerable investor interest [2] - The domestic public funds linked to silver are limited, making the Guotai Junan Silver Futures (LOF) a focal point for investors [2] - The excessive market enthusiasm has led to irrational trading, with the fund's market price deviating significantly from its net asset value, reaching a premium rate close to 60% [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fund management has implemented measures such as temporary trading halts to mitigate overheating and alert investors to risks, but market sentiment remains volatile [2] - On December 26, the fund company announced a strict daily subscription limit of 100 yuan, effectively restricting ordinary investors' access to the silver market through public funds [2] Group 2: Alternative Investment Paths - Investors still interested in silver can consider physical silver and silver futures as alternative investment methods [10] - Investing in physical silver involves hidden costs and practical challenges, such as security concerns, authentication processes, and lower resale prices compared to market rates [10] - Silver futures offer advantages like margin trading, T+0 trading, and a dual trading mechanism, making it a more flexible and efficient option compared to physical silver [10] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - High leverage in futures trading can amplify both potential gains and losses, posing significant risks to principal amounts in a short time [11] - Investors need a certain level of professional knowledge to navigate futures trading, including understanding contract terms and margin rules [11] - Futures companies can provide essential support, including market analysis and risk management, helping investors make informed decisions [11]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报 展 1771 亿元 7 天期逆回购，中标利率 1.4%，上次中标利率 1.4%。另外，央 行预告今日开展 4000 亿元 MLF。据 qeubee 统计，公开市场有 883 亿元逆回 购到期，还有 3000 亿元 MLF 到期，实现净投放 1888 亿元。资金面来看， DR001 下行 0.3BP 至 1.26%，DR007 上行 10BP 至 1.48%。中央经济工作会 议定调明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具，但同时强调把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重 要考量，预计 2026 年大方向保持稳中偏松的情况下降息操作偏谨慎。短期 来看，上周央行时隔近三月重启 14 天期逆回购，显现出央行维稳资金面态 度，资金面持续宽松。但经济整体保持韧性，物价回暖，央行降息偏谨慎， 债市震荡格局难改。 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四沪指全天震荡走 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-26 苹果优果价格坚挺，红枣旺季消费偏弱 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9208元/吨，较前一日变动+17元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1008，较前一日变动-17；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-808，较前一日变动-17。 近期市场资讯，库内晚富士主流行情稳定，成交氛围仍显一般。洛川部分产区果农货价格略有松动，目前部分产 区果农货询价增多，库内包装发运略有增加，但主流仍以客商发自存货源为主。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果 农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓，少量 75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/ 斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/ 斤。 ...

高市早苗周四表示，2026年4月起的财年预算总额约为122.3万亿日元（约合7860亿美元）。这比本财年 预算的115.2万亿日元约增加6.3%，将成为日本史上规模最大的"初始预算"。 为筹措相关支出，政府计划通过新发行国债筹集约29.6万亿日元。高市早苗称，预算对债务发行的依赖 度将降至24.2%，低于本财年的24.9%。 "我认为这份预算在强化经济与确保财政可持续性之间取得了平衡。"高市早苗在与执政党及政府成员会 议结束时表示。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银再度大幅走高，沪银昨日夜盘涨超18000元/千克，创历史新高，沪银溢价继续扩大至1500元/克， 国内情绪异常高涨，异常拉升仍有可能。沪银主力合约参考运行区间17150-19000。沪银主力合约短期 支撑位于1700元/千克附近，上方阻力看向1900元/千克附近。 今日周五(12月26日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于18224一线上方，今日开盘于17397元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报18449元/千克，上涨7.36%，最高触及18604元/千克，最低下探17339元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情 ...

1. Report's Core View - On December 25, 2025, different sectors in the market showed various liquidity performances. The stock index, basic metal, precious metal, and agricultural product sectors had increased trading volumes compared with the previous trading days, while the treasury bond, energy - chemical, and black building material sectors had decreased trading volumes [1][2]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Stock Index Plate - Trading volume was 560.484 billion yuan, a +10.45% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 1376.631 billion yuan, with a +4.67% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.59% [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Plate - Trading volume was 294.915 billion yuan, a -34.30% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 818.284 billion yuan, with a +1.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 35.57% [1]. 2.3 Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal) Plate - Trading volume was 820.815 billion yuan, a +34.56% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 727.873 billion yuan, with a +1.41% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 116.61% [1]. 2.4 Energy - Chemical Plate - Trading volume was 445.584 billion yuan, a -11.40% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 446.265 billion yuan, with a +0.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 91.56% [1]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Plate - Trading volume was 237.094 billion yuan, a +2.38% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 557.817 billion yuan, with a -2.23% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.83% [1]. 2.6 Black Building Material Plate - Trading volume was 154.490 billion yuan, a -25.74% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 311.853 billion yuan, with a -1.85% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 46.74% [2].

FICC日报 | 2025-12-26 离岸人民币升破7.0大关，警惕贵金属价格波动风险 市场分析 政策预期回摆。12月8日中共中央政治局会议召开：强调"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"， 延续此前措辞。并强调"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，逆周期和跨周期并提或意味着在总量维持的前提下，明 年政策边际增量更需要等待稳增长节点。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行 动，深入整治"内卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量。后续继续提振消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方 向。在此基础上，多部委同步响应落实：央行四季度例会指出，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨 周期调节力度；发改委聚焦出台消费提振实招新招、整治内卷并培育新动能；财政部则提出用好用足政府债券资 金、发行超长期特别国债，着力推动投资止跌回稳。美国结束上届政府针对中国芯片贸易调查，决定至少在18个 月内不对中国芯片加征额外关税。数据方面，中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口 ...