行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 印度政府已批准 2025-26 榨季出口 150 万吨食糖，并决定取消甘蔗糖蜜出口 税，将该关税调整为零 150 万吨糖出口配额将按比例分配给在运营的糖厂， 分配依据为各厂过去三个季的平均产量。 ...

Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - As of November 17, 325 sugar mills in India have commenced operations, significantly up from 144 mills during the same period last year. The cane crushing volume has reached 12.8 million tons, compared to 9.1 million tons last year [1] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons for the 2025/26 season, driven by a production increase of 3.15% to 181.77 million tons, while consumption is expected to grow only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons [1] - China's sugar imports in October reached 750,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39%. From January to October, total sugar imports amounted to 3.9 million tons, reflecting a 14% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Price Trends - According to Zhongyuan Futures, supply-side pressures are evident with high sugar production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Domestic production estimates for the new crushing season have been raised to 11.7 million tons, with good cane growth in Guangxi and delayed crushing impacting spot prices. Current prices have fallen below previous support levels, potentially testing the 5,430-5,450 range [2] - Everbright Futures reports that Brazil's latest bi-weekly crushing data shows a significant month-on-month decline in sugar production, although it remains higher than last year. In Guangxi, three sugar mills have started operations, and traders are quoting new sugar prices moderately. The market lacks new drivers in the short term, with prices under pressure and expected to remain within a weak range [3]

Core Insights - Guangxi Laibin has developed a comprehensive sugarcane industry chain, achieving the concept of "utilizing every part of the sugarcane" [1][3] - The city has become the largest ice sugar production base in China and the biggest producer of biodegradable tableware made from sugarcane bagasse [1][5] Industry Development - Laibin has established a circular economy industry chain consisting of five major components: sugar production and deep processing, molasses, filter mud, bagasse, and cane leaves [1][3] - The sugarcane industry in Laibin is recognized as a key player in the national sugar production landscape, contributing significantly to the local economy [1][3] Export Potential - The biodegradable tableware produced from bagasse is exported to regions including Europe, America, and Southeast Asia, indicating strong international demand [5][7]

白糖市场震荡整理，多空因素交织 --白糖周报2025年11月10日-11月14日 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 【现货市场】柳州现货价5650元/吨周环比微跌0.18%，南宁、昆明报价同步下调， 基差收窄至180元/吨环比降11.33%，反映现货支撑减弱。 【期货市场】主力合约周度收于5470元/吨，周内振幅1.19%，持仓量减少11425手 | 策略及风险提示 预计未来1-2周 白糖主力合约将 | | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖 | 至370242手，显示资金持续流出。 【供应方面】巴西11月首周糖出口同比下滑23%，国内新榨季广西甘蔗长势良好， 仓单数量环比大增16.8%至8622张，供应压力显现。 【需求方面】加工糖报价持稳5770-5890元/吨，看跌比例45%环比降10个百分点， 但看平比例35%环比增16.67%，反映需求观望情绪浓厚。 【进口出口】泰国原糖升贴水持稳0.89美分/磅，巴西升贴水环比降26.09%至 | 在5450-5520元/ 吨区间 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's next crop season production increase. In the future, the raw sugar price will adjust in the process of continuous expectation adjustment. In the domestic market, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that the sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than last month's forecast. The total sugar output slightly exceeds expectations. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old sugar in Guangxi has basically been cleared. The delayed start of production in Guangxi has put some pressure on the spot market, while the lack of intention to reduce the price of processed sugar provides support at the lower end [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 359,183 lots, down 11,059 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,622, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -52,091 lots; the valid warehouse receipt forecast is 183, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,090 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,182 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,177 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,296 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative sugar production nationwide is 1,457 million tons, down 85 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 241.88 million tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 602.29 million tons, up 95.92 million tons; the import volume of sugar in the current month is 55 million tons, down 28 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 316 million tons, up 55 million tons; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,370 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 365 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, down 119 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 6.3%, up 1.34%; the 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.37%, up 0.78%; the 60-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.75%, up 0.16% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), in the second half of October 2025, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 31.108 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; produced 2.068 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with a sugar production ratio of 46.02%, higher than 45.91% in the same period last year. As of November 1, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central-southern region had cumulatively crushed 556 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, and cumulatively produced 38.085 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%. India maintains its sugar export policy for the 2025/26 season. In the 2024/25 sugar season, India exported 800,000 tons of sugar, lower than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of the sugar industry in Laibin, Guangxi, highlighting the development of a comprehensive sugar industry chain that generates a hundred billion yuan industry from sugarcane [2][4]. Industry Overview - Laibin is recognized as one of China's major sugar production areas, contributing one-sixth of Guangxi's and one-tenth of China's total sugar output [2]. - The local sugar industry has established a circular economy involving five major sectors: sugar production and deep processing, molasses, filter mud, bagasse, and cane leaves [2]. Company Developments - Dongtang Phoenix Company has upgraded its sugar production processes, implementing new systems to enhance efficiency and reduce energy consumption [2][4]. - The company employs a "company + base + farmers + technology" model, ensuring farmers benefit from sugar market profits through guaranteed pricing and price linkage [4]. Product Innovation - Guangxi Green Union Biotechnology Company is extending the value of sugarcane by producing biodegradable tableware from bagasse, showcasing the potential of waste materials [4][6]. - The company utilizes advanced automated systems for pulp processing, aiming for a fully automated production line [4]. Economic Impact - The biodegradable materials project is expected to generate an annual output value of 1.5 billion yuan and create approximately 500 jobs [6]. - Laibin has established 1.065 million acres of high-quality sugarcane plantations, maximizing resource utilization and supporting national sugar security [6].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Decline in Brazil's Sugar Production Ratio, Global Output Increase May Fall Short of Expectations [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the global main producing areas are still realizing increased production, but Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production expectations of Brazil and India. Brazil's final sugar production may fall short of previous expectations due to a significant decline in the sugar production ratio. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. In the domestic market, the short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, while in the medium - to - long - term, there is still some downward pressure on sugar prices, but the space is relatively limited [3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral aspect, it is recommended to operate within a range considering the international and domestic sugar price trends; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: Internationally, the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the adjustment of global sugar production expectations affect the international sugar price trend. Domestically, the start of sugar mills' production, import policies, and cost factors influence the domestic sugar price trend. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within a range [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - **2025/26 Sugar Surplus Reduction**: Czarnikow raised the estimated surplus of the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, while Datagro lowered its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus to 100,000 tons. Datagro also lowered the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India, and major importers such as China and Indonesia increased their purchases at low prices [8][10]. 2. Brazil's Sugar Production Situation - **High - Level Production Forecast**: According to Conab data, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in August and the second - highest in recent years [11]. - **Significant Decline in the Bi - weekly Sugar Production Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil**: In the second half of October 2025, the sugar production ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased by 3 percentage points to 46.02%, while the ethanol production increased [13]. - **Year - on - Year Increase in Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil in This Season**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%, but the cumulative ethanol production decreased by 6.91% [18]. - **Significant Increase in Sugar Inventory and Exports**: As of the second half of October, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was 12.1107 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.99%. Brazil exported about 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [23]. 3. Sugar Production in Other Countries - **Slight Increase in Thailand's New Season**: The 2024/25 season's sugar production was 10.05 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase, with an expected increase in exports of 1 million tons [27]. - **India's Sugar Production and Policy**: ISMA estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.35 million tons, and the net production after excluding ethanol use would be 30.95 million tons. The Indian government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, and the northern states raised the purchase price of sugarcane [35]. 4. Domestic Sugar Market Situation - **Sugar Mills Start Production**: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Guangxi have started or are about to start production. The start - up time in Guangxi has been postponed, and the number of start - up mills is expected to be significantly lower than the same period last year [39]. - **High Import Profits**: The import profit situation of sugar from Brazil and Thailand shows that there are certain profit opportunities [40][41]. - **Decline in Import Volume**: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, and the import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the import volume in October will be similar to that of last year [48]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data on Brazil's sugar production, including cumulative sugar production, cumulative cane crushing volume, bi - weekly sugar production ratio, etc.; India's sugar production and export data; Thailand's sugar production and export data; and China's sugar production, import volume, and inventory data [14][17][23][39][48]

Core Insights - The event "Exploring Industrial Digital Empowerment and Discussing High-Quality Development" took place in Laibin, Guangxi, from November 16 to 18, focusing on the region's industrial digital transformation [1] Group 1: Industrial Development - Laibin City has significant resource advantages, producing one-sixth of Guangxi's and one-tenth of China's sugar output, with an annual timber production exceeding 4 million cubic meters [2] - The city is transforming its leading industries such as sericulture, sugar production, metallurgy, and aluminum processing through digital empowerment [2] Group 2: International Media Engagement - Representatives from 21 foreign media outlets from 15 countries and regions visited the Xiangcheng Silkworm and Silk Industry Park to learn about the technological advancements in silk production [2] - The park has modernized the silk production process, significantly increasing farmers' incomes by over 50% through improved techniques [2] Group 3: Cultural Exchange and Recognition - The fashion items made from silk attracted attention from international media, highlighting the popularity of silk products abroad and their potential to increase farmers' incomes in China [4] - The visit included experiences of traditional crafts, such as the Xiangcheng brocade weaving technique, showcasing China's efforts in preserving ethnic cultural heritage [4][6] Group 4: Future Developments - The foreign media representatives will also explore the application of "Artificial Intelligence+" in the sugar industry and the transformation of traditional paper manufacturing in the Guangxi Sanjiangkou New Area [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Near - term domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient than foreign sugar, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO expects the global sugar surplus to be adjusted down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected surplus to 7.4 million tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and imported 151,400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Near - term foreign sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resilient. The 01 contract has strong pressure around 5500 and has declined under pressure. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, exports, and price ranges are all presented. It is estimated that the sugar production in 2025/26 will be 11.7 million tons, imports will be 5 million tons, consumption will be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change will be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit is considerable [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report.

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 17, 2025 - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated, and the main March contract closed down 0.78% to 13.96 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main March contract closed down 0.91% to $412.60 per ton. The raw sugar maintained a volatile market, with a weak rebound as the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries are in the harvest season. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply. The 01 contract closed at 5,470 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.33%, with a reduction of 11,425 positions. The domestic sugar spot price remained flat. The market is waiting for the new sugar to be listed in Guangxi, and there is no obvious bullish or bearish driver for the time being. The rise of Zhengzhou sugar was due to speculative funds, but these funds have started to withdraw, and the previous speculative short - position holders have reduced their positions. It is expected that the market will be weakly volatile [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: The SR601 contract closed at 5,470 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.33%, with a position of 370,242 contracts and a reduction of 11,425 contracts. The SR605 contract closed at 5,404 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan or 0.20%, with a position of 122,174 contracts and an increase of 4,427 contracts. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 13.96 cents per pound, down 0.11 cents or 0.78%, with a position of 179,097 contracts and an increase of 6,776 contracts. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.43 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents or 0.62%, with a position of 486,827 contracts and a reduction of 1,285 contracts [7]. - **Analysis of Market Trends**: The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated, and the London ICE white sugar futures also declined. The raw sugar market is in a volatile state with a weak rebound. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply, and the market is waiting for the new sugar in Guangxi. The rise was due to speculative funds, and now these funds are withdrawing, and short - position holders are reducing positions. It is expected to be weakly volatile [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Indonesia's Sugar Self - sufficiency Plan**: Indonesia plans to achieve sugar self - sufficiency by 2026, with a goal of consumer sugar self - sufficiency by 2028 and full self - sufficiency including industrial and ethanol demand by 2030. The president has urged the acceleration of this schedule [11]. - **Sugar Mill Start - up in Yunnan**: As of now, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan that have started production has reached 4, an increase of 1 compared to the same period last year. The planned design capacity of the started sugar mills is 13,200 tons per day, an increase of 9,700 tons per day compared to the same period last year [11]. - **Global Sugar Surplus Adjustment**: DATAGRO adjusted the global sugar surplus forecast for the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (starting in October) from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons, due to the sugar production reduction in Brazil and India. The sugar production forecast in the central - southern region of Brazil was revised from 41.1 million tons to 40.8 million tons, and the sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was adjusted from 51.6% to 51.2% [11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Transaction Data of the Top 20 Seats in the Main Contract of Zhengzhou Sugar**: The total trading volume was 217,607 lots, a decrease of 53,457 lots; the total long - position volume was 250,939 lots, a decrease of 6,309 lots; the total short - position volume was 285,700 lots, a decrease of 12,297 lots [23].