何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 产能计划投放，供应压力呈上升趋势。棚膜需求即将季节性回落，包装膜需求跟进有限，下游开工率预计 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 边际走弱。成本方面，国际油价现实端供强于需持续，地缘方面俄乌、美委局势仍存不确定性，市场预期 美联储12月降息概率提升，国际油价多空博弈。短期L2601预计震荡走势，日度K线关注6750附近支撑与68 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 70附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 塑料产业日报 2025-12-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6803 | 14 ...

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a rise of 0.81% on December 1, with Cangzhou Mingzhu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed significant increases, with Cangzhou Mingzhu rising by 10.00% to a closing price of 5.17 [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector saw a net inflow of 306 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 349 million yuan [2] - The top stocks by main fund inflow included Guofeng New Materials with 286 million yuan and Cangzhou Mingzhu with 143 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed significant outflows in several stocks, including Cangzhou Mingzhu and Guofeng New Materials, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

光大证券 1 2020 年半年度业绩 EVERBRIGHT SECURITIES 光期能化：PVC策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 日 PVC：低估值，弱驱动 | 摘 要 | | --- | | 1、供应：11月仍有部分 PVC 企业检修，但相比于 10 月份数量有所减少，整体开工率有所提升，12月仍有个别企业有新投产计划，产能基 | | 数将进一步扩大，加之国内存有检修计划的 PVC生产企业较少，开工率有所提升，整体供应压力将继续增加。 | | 2、需求：国内房地产施工表现仍然偏弱，天气逐渐变冷，水泥发运和螺纹表需数据显示房地产施工走弱，下游需求淡季以及房地产行业持 | | 续低迷拖累，制品企业开工率较低，整体需求较差，制品企业拿货多保持刚需低价为主，观望情绪浓厚。出口方面，印度取消反倾销政策 | | 及 BIS 认证，国内出口量将有所增加，将缓解国内部分供应压力。 | | 3、库存：基本面依旧供强需弱，随着下游需求有进一步下滑预期，终端企业订单有继续转差预期，PVC 库存消化能力将继续减弱。 | | 4、总结：供应端，12月企业检修低谷，产量将继续增长；需求端，从水泥发运率和螺纹钢表观需求的数据来看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation of polyolefins is at a relatively low level, and polyolefins tend to fluctuate at the bottom. In December, the supply will increase while the demand will weaken, resulting in high pressure to transfer inventory downstream. However, since the monthly spread is already at the lowest level in the past five years, if the crude oil price remains relatively stable, polyolefins will tend to fluctuate at the bottom [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 12 - month refinery maintenance decreases, and supply gradually rebounds - **PE**: In November, the number of unit overhauls decreased, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. In December, the overhauls remained low. The 500,000 - ton/year low - pressure unit of BASF is planned to be put into production at the end of the year, with limited impact on linear PE. The PE output is expected to be around 2.75 million tons [3] - **PP**: In November, the number of overhauled units decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained relatively stable at around 78%. The output increased significantly year - on - year, and the domestic supply was relatively sufficient. In December, although there were no new units, the overhauled units resumed production one after another, and the output is expected to increase to around 3.3 million tons [3] 3.2 Demand: Demand gradually weakens in December - **PE**: In November, it was the peak season for agricultural film demand, and the start - up rate remained high, but the start - up rates of other downstream industries began to decline. In December, the demand for agricultural film entered the off - season, and the demand is expected to continue to decline [3][19] - **PP**: In December, the traditional demand is expected to enter the off - season. Plastic weaving and injection molding manufacturers are affected by the winter consumption off - season, with fewer orders and cautious procurement. The demand is expected to decline [3][26] 3.3 Inventory: Refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the pressure to reduce inventory remains high - **PE**: At the end of November, the overall social inventory was at a normal level, and the petrochemical inventory was slightly higher than that of the same period last year. It is still in the stage of active inventory reduction [3][37] - **PP**: The supply is at a high level. Although refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the total inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The pressure to reduce inventory in December remains high [3][53] 3.4 Spread: Basis weakens - **LLDPE**: The basis strengthens slightly, and the monthly spread rebounds slightly but is at the lowest level in the past five years due to high supply pressure [62][69] - **PP**: The basis strengthens, and the monthly spread continues to weaken due to high supply pressure [81][87] 3.5 Profit: Coal - based profits weaken, and oil - based profits fluctuate slightly - **PE**: Both oil - based and coal - based production profits have declined [101] - **PP**: The production profits from different raw materials show different trends, and the overall situation is complex [106]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周国内聚丙烯产量80.68万吨，相较上周的80.83万吨减少0.15万吨，跌幅0.19%；相较去年同期的67.4万吨增加13.28万吨，涨幅19.7%。（2）聚丙 | | | | 烯平均产能利用率78.14%，环比下降0.14%；中石化产能利用率79.65%，环比下降1.59%。 | | | | （1）聚丙烯下游平均开工上涨0.26个百分点至53.83%。近期包装行业继电商节后订单萎缩，市场需求不佳，行业开工多稳中下行。随着天气寒冷加剧， | | 需求 | 偏多 | 流感等呼吸道疾病进入高发阶段，市场对口罩、消毒湿巾等防护用品的消耗量大幅增长，PP无纺布行业开工+0.58%。西北地区集中建筑施工活动依旧， | | | | 且地暖系统安装与维护需求进入高峰，二 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade within a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,700, while the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with support at 6,400. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in an oscillatory manner [10]. - PP faces high trend pressure and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic Section Market Review - On November 28, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,789 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The average price of LDPE was 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The average price of HDPE was 7,387.90 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,188.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. The LLDPE South China basis was 399.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.60%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (-7) [12]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On November 28, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (-7), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (+21), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 93 yuan/ton (-14) [18]. - **Spot Price**: Different regions and varieties of plastics had various price changes on November 28, 2025, with some showing increases and others decreases [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $58.48 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $62.32 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 337 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was - 237 yuan/ton, a decrease of 129 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 84.51%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 68.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.16%. The maintenance loss this week was 8.68 tons, a decrease of 1.27 tons from the previous week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 5.43 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already in operation and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [36]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 49.04%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.70%, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.83%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 39.1%, with a difference of 3.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is significant, currently accounting for 10%, with a difference of 3.2% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 47.11 tons, a decrease of 1.48 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.05% [43]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,546 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous week [47]. PP Section Market Review - On November 28, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6,357 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% [51]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: Different PP products and related products had various price changes on November 28, 2025 [52][55]. - **Basis**: On November 28, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6,363.33 yuan/ton (-43.34). The PP basis was - 46 yuan/ton (-95), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+36) [57]. - **Month - spread**: On November 28, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+36), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 14 yuan/ton (+29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (-65) [60]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $58.48 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $62.32 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [65]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 598.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 77.39 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 579.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.13 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 78.14%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.68 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly output of PP powder was 7.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.01% [75]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [78]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 53.83% (+0.26). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.10% (-0.14%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.60% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.87% (-0.19%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.17% (+2.04%) [80]. - **Production Ratio**: Different PP product production ratios had various changes from November 24 - 28, 2025 [86]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the PP import profit was - 246.96 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.50 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 12.31 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory this week was 54.63 tons (-8.00%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 7.88% month - on - month, the inventory of traders decreased by 6.04% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 0.76% month - on - month [90]. - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises this week was 990.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%. The BOPP raw material inventory was 10.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 3.64% [98]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of PP warehouse receipts was 15,866 lots, an increase of 133 lots from the previous week [103].

Core Points - The Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of a final review investigation on anti-dumping measures applicable to imported polyphenylene sulfide from Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Malaysia, effective December 1, 2025 [1] - During the review period, the anti-dumping duties will continue to be levied according to previously published announcements [1] Summary by Company - **Japanese Companies**: - Toray Industries, Inc. 26.9% - DIC Corporation 27.3% - POLYPLASTICS CO., LTD. 25.2% - Tosoh Corporation 25.6% - IDEMITSU FINE COMPOSITES CO., LTD. 33.6% - Sumitomo Bakelite Co., Ltd. 34.5% - Other Japanese companies 69.1% [2] - **American Companies**: - Solvay Specialty Polymers USA, LLC 214.1% - Fortron Industries LLC 220.9% - Other American companies 220.9% [2] - **South Korean Companies**: - Toray Advanced Materials Korea Inc. 26.4% - HDC POLYALL Co., Ltd. 32.7% - Other South Korean companies 46.8% [2] - **Malaysian Companies**: - Polyplastics Asia Pacific Sdn. Bhd. 23.3% - DIC Compounds (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. 40.5% - Other Malaysian companies 40.5% [2] Investigation Periods - The dumping investigation period is from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, while the industry damage investigation period is from January 1, 2021, to June 30, 2025 [3]

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加季节性， LL1-5反套或将持续 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/29 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场情绪转暖，国内能化品种回归各自基本面，涨跌各现。 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度跌幅（期货＞现货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-1.33%，Brent原油下跌-0.60%，煤价下跌-1.80%，甲醇上涨4.49%，乙烯上涨0.23%，丙烯上涨2.27%，丙 烷上涨0.88%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率84.12%，环比上涨0.42%，同比去年上涨3.44%，较5年同期下降-5.17%。PP产能利用率77.97%，环比上涨 ...

随后，金元期货能化研究员陈婧分享了当前反内卷的格局下的PVC基本面情况以及未来发展方向，PVC新投产能如期而至，检修处于低位， 库存压力较高，房地产行业持续低迷，整个基本面压力较大，但明后年随着未来新投产能压力减轻，且出口至印度、东南亚、中亚、中东、 非洲等地区需求上升，从宏观角度当前政府逐步向市场注入流动性，促进消费等措施，PVC的价格仍未来可期。 "当前，树脂产业链正面临复杂多变的市场环境，价格波动加剧，风险管理需求日益凸显。期货工具与实体经济的深度融合，是提升产业链 韧性和稳定性的关键路径。"金元期货总经理助理金建涛致辞表示，本次会议旨在为产业链上下游企业搭建一个高规格的交流平台，共同探 讨如何运用月均结算价等创新衍生品工具，管理价格风险、优化经营模式，以此来助力产业企业把握市场脉搏，凝聚行业共识，共同构筑一 条更具竞争力和抗风险能力的树脂产业链。 日前，线型低密度聚乙烯、聚氯乙烯、聚丙烯月均价期货（下称"三个化工品月均价期货"已在大连商品交易所上市。这是大商所上市的首批 现金交割期货，也是境内商品期货市场的首批月均价期货。会议期间，大商所专家就刚上市的线型低密度聚乙烯、聚氯乙烯和聚丙烯月均价 合约进行 ...

期货日报网讯(记者刘威魁)在全球经济下行与产能过剩的双重压力持续深化的背景下，化工企业面临价格波动剧烈、贸易壁垒升级、资金链 紧张等多重挑战。如何在转型浪潮中行稳致远，成为摆在石油化工行业面前的现实课题。11月27日，由金元期货股份有限公司主办、期货日 报、产业服务联盟、广东蓝航塑胶有限公司、广州汇诚化工有限公司、佛山市顺德区塑料协会协办、大连商品交易所支持的"DCE.产业行 ——聚焦月均新工具，共筑树脂产业链"会议在广州成功举办，吸引了来自雄塑集团、浙江中菁、钢联能化、蓝航塑胶、汇诚化工87家产业 企业及机构的近200名业内人士参与。众多与会嘉宾围绕当前行业变动、产业企业如何通过期货工具构建更具韧性的经营防线等重点议题展 开讨论，彰显期货市场在服务实体经济等方面的重要作用。 紧接着，广州国际贸易集团有限公司董事长张毅介绍了塑料的产业史是如何从量的跃迁到失衡的，分析了当前低毛利与需求有天花板的产业 困局，介绍了东南亚地区在家电行业对塑料的需求、拉美、非洲对汽车塑料的需求等全球产能与需求错配以及全球范围内出海机会。 等嘉宾围绕当前市场低迷的原因以及下游生产型企业的转型方案，行业高供应、高库存与弱需求的博弈中应如 ...