1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the PVC industry are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a moderately low - level, the supply reduction is small and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, while the export also faces off - season pressure. In the short term, the expected electricity price supports PVC at the cost end. In the medium term, before substantial industry production cuts, the main strategy is to short on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali continues to recover, and the profit of ethylene - based production rises, with the current valuation moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.7%, up 1% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, up 1.4% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 79.6%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Supply load increased slightly last week and is expected to rise further next week. The overall load in January is expected to remain high, with small production cuts and high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: Export resistance to India has decreased, but there is off - season pressure. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The pipe load is 35.4%, down 0.2% month - on - month; the film load is 66.4%, unchanged month - on - month; the profile load is 30.2%, up 0.4% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 44%, up 0.1% month - on - month. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 90.9 tons, up 9.4 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, factory inventory was 32.8 tons, up 1.9 tons month - on - month; social inventory was 111.4 tons, up 3.7 tons month - on - month; total inventory was 144.2 tons, up 5.6 tons month - on - month; the number of warehouse receipts decreased. With strong supply and weak demand, both exports and domestic demand are in the off - season, and it is difficult to digest the high production. PVC is expected to accumulate inventory again with the arrival of the off - season [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 price difference, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [15][20][22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The report shows various charts about PVC inventory and profit, such as factory inventory, social inventory, combined factory and social inventory, warehouse receipts, and the profits of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [28][30][37]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows a rebound in calcium carbide. The report provides charts of the prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda self - pick - up price in Shandong, Shandong market price of liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [43][44][51]. 3.5 Supply Side The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the operating rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [55][59][64]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable, gradually entering the off - season. The report provides charts of the operating rates of PVC downstream industries such as pipes, films, and profiles, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [70][71]. - **Export Demand**: Exports continued to decline in November. The report provides charts of PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, but no specific text analysis is provided for these data [73][74][80].

CONTENTS 目录 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 徐绍祖（联系人） 春检将至， 持续反弹 聚烯烃周报 2026/01/10 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：国际地缘冲突升级，美国将接管委内瑞拉石油出口。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞现货＞成本），聚丙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-3.38%，Brent原油下跌-4.72%，煤价上涨3.43%，甲醇上涨3.94%，乙烯下跌-0.89%，丙烯上涨1.40%，丙 烷上涨1.87%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.39%，环比上涨1.24%，同比去年下降-3.17%，较5年同期下降-8.36%。PP产能利用率73.85%，环比下降- 3.97%，同比去年下降-7.22%，较5年同期下降-17. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 9th, the change in maintenance devices was small. The plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21% after the New Year's Day. The agricultural film was gradually out of the peak season, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The New Year's Day inventory accumulation was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited. It was expected that the upward space of plastic in the near future was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 9th, the plastic operating rate was around 87%. After the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21%. The agricultural film was out of the peak season, and its orders continued to decline, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, 700,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) were put into production. It was expected that the downstream operating rate would decline. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited, and the upward space was limited. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,602 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,685 yuan/ton, and closed at 6,674 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, up 0.17%. The position decreased by 14,010 lots to 491,289 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with a price range of - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,500 - 6,770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,650 - 9,110 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,750 - 8,340 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 9th, the change in maintenance devices was small. The plastic operating rate was around 87%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21%. The agricultural film was gradually out of the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The New Year's Day inventory accumulation was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].

Market Performance - The plastic sector increased by 2.62% on January 9, with Jinfa Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Top Gainers in Plastic Sector - Jinfa Technology (600143) closed at 20.92, up 9.99% with a trading volume of 2.88 million shares [1] - Daon Shares (002838) also rose by 9.99% to 27.31, with a trading volume of 123,400 shares [1] - Kent Shares (301591) increased by 9.84% to 46.00, with a trading volume of 72,100 shares [1] - Other notable gainers include Shangwei New Materials (688585) up 8.75% and Meilian New Materials (300586) up 5.14% [1] Market Trends and Capital Flow - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 827 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.172 billion yuan [2] - The top stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors include Jinfa Technology and Meilian New Materials [3] Capital Flow Analysis - Jinfa Technology had a net inflow of 1.663 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 963 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Daon Shares saw a net inflow of 63.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 33.22 million yuan [3] - Meilian New Materials had a net inflow of 60.29 million yuan from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow from retail investors [3]

2026 年 1 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明 国 泰 君 安 期 货 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6628 | -0.21% | 657423 | -379 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -128 | | -162 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -37 | | -45 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6500 | | 6480 | | | | 华东 | 6560 | | 6550 | | | | 华南 | 6550 | | 6550 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货涨势有所放缓，前期盘面反弹，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期矛盾不大，库存向中游转移, 仓单暂停去化，今日成交氛围有所转淡。外盘 ...

Core Viewpoint - PEEK (Polyether Ether Ketone) is a high-performance engineering plastic with extensive applications in various industries, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors such as medical, aerospace, humanoid robotics, and new energy vehicles [4][5][6]. Group 1: PEEK Overview - PEEK is a type of polyaryletherketone, known for its excellent physical and chemical properties, including a melting point of 343°C and tensile strength of 100 MPa [5]. - PEEK's unique properties make it suitable for applications in electronics, aerospace, automotive, energy, and medical fields [5]. Group 2: PEEK in Medical Health - PEEK has been used in medical applications since 1999, recognized for its biocompatibility and mechanical strength, particularly in orthopedic implants [6]. - By 2027, the demand for cranial repair surgeries in China is projected to reach 96,700 cases, with PEEK products expected to penetrate 70% of this market, translating to a demand of approximately 47.89 tons of PEEK material [7]. Group 3: PEEK in Aerospace - PEEK and its carbon fiber reinforced composites (CF/PEEK) are crucial in aerospace, replacing metals in aircraft components to reduce weight significantly [8]. - The use of CF/PEEK in aircraft structures could lead to a market size of approximately 12.619 billion yuan from 2022 to 2041, with an annual usage of about 6,309.68 tons [9]. Group 4: PEEK in Humanoid Robotics - The humanoid robotics market is expected to grow significantly, with PEEK's lightweight and high-strength properties making it an ideal material for various robotic components [10]. - PEEK's density of approximately 1.3 g/cm³ positions it as a superior lightweight material compared to carbon fiber, enhancing the performance of humanoid robots [10]. Group 5: PEEK in New Energy Vehicles - PEEK is increasingly used in 800V electric motor applications in new energy vehicles, addressing the challenges of range anxiety and charging efficiency [11]. - By 2027, the demand for PEEK in 800V motor applications is expected to reach 2,630.12 tons, corresponding to a market size of approximately 88.6 million yuan [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 8, new maintenance devices were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The overall PE downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the improvement in the plastic supply - demand pattern is limited, so the recent upward space for plastics is expected to be limited. Due to new production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New maintenance devices were added on January 8, and the plastic operating rate decreased to around 87%. As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The new year's inventory accumulation was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. Crude oil prices are still weak. There are new plastic production capacities coming on - stream, the downstream operating rate is expected to decline, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the plastic supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6605 yuan/ton, the highest was 6720 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6628 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.05%. The position volume decreased by 379 lots to 505,299 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations between - 100 and + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6670 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8550 - 9010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6700 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - On January 8, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1][4]. 3.3.2 Demand - As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. 3.3.3 Inventory - On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 57.5 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The new year's inventory accumulation was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1][4]. 3.3.4 Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to $60/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $745/ton [4].

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a rise of 1.14% on January 8, with Wankai New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed significant price increases, with Wankai New Materials up 15.16% to 20.36, and Lekai Film up 10.03% to 12.72 [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 986 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.026 billion yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors include Shenjian Co. with a net inflow of 1.31 billion yuan [3] - The overall trading volume for the plastic sector was substantial, with Wankai New Materials achieving a transaction amount of 1.098 billion yuan [1]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 LLDPE：标品排产继续回落，基差弱稳 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6642 | 0.96% | 662494 | -2207 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -162 | | -179 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -45 | | -39 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6480 | | 6400 | | | | 华 东 | 6550 | | 6450 | | | | 华 南 | 6550 | | 6490 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the provincial economic work conference is to ensure high-quality development and to implement effective measures for economic growth in Fushun [1] - Fushun aims to expand investment and promote consumption as key strategies for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The city plans to initiate over 120 projects with an investment of over 100 million yuan each within the year [1] Group 2 - Fushun will implement actions for high-quality development of key industrial chains, focusing on increasing production and efficiency of high-end products [2] - The city is set to support 200 enterprises in digital transformation within the year [2] - New measures to improve the business environment include optimizing processes and enhancing service quality for enterprises [2] Group 3 - Fushun is committed to hosting the "15th Winter" snow sports events and will develop the Longgang Mountain Ski Resort to meet testing conditions by October [3] - The city plans to create 30 distinctive ice and snow scenes and host 100 related activities to promote the ice and snow industry [3] - Urban renewal projects include comprehensive governance of the Xilu open-pit mine and significant infrastructure improvements [3]