Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, after the maintenance of the terminal TA is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, the polyester start - up rate rises, the inventory is slightly reduced, the basis strengthens again, and the spot processing fee improves month - on - month. Subsequently, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the monthly drive may switch between the continuous reduction of PX inventory and the additional reduction of polyester efficiency, with increased fluctuations [1]. - For MEG, the domestic maintenance continues to resume, the start - up rate continues to rise, the Iranian devices stop intensively, the port inventory is slightly reduced, the downstream stocking level rises slightly, and the basis weakens month - on - month. In the future, it will also pass the inventory reduction stage, but the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited due to Iranian import disturbances, showing a sideways pattern [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increases, the sales volume remains the same month - on - month, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The demand side has weakening efficiency, but the export maintains a high growth rate. There are also production reduction plans, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [2]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounds, and the strategy is to wait and see [2]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices and profits of related products fluctuate, and the start - up rates of different products also show different trends [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased from $76.5 to $71.5, the PX price fluctuated, and the PTA internal spot price increased from 5020 to 5260. The PTA processing difference, production and sales, and other indicators also changed [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials reduced the load of its 3.6 - million - ton device [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, with the monthly drive switching between PX inventory reduction and polyester efficiency compression [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the MEG internal and external prices, profits, and other indicators changed. The basis for 09 was around +82 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton device restarted, and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. - **Market Outlook**: After experiencing the inventory reduction stage, the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited, showing a sideways pattern [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: The spot price was around 6933, and the market basis was around 07 + 10. The prices of related products such as cotton - polyester staple fiber also changed [2]. - **Device Changes**: Fujian Jinlun restarted, and the start - up rate increased to 95.1% [2]. - **Market Outlook**: There are production reduction plans, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [2]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 1 to June 23, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Thai glue, Shanghai full - latex, and 20 - number glue, changed. The daily and weekly changes of different varieties were different [2]. - **Market Outlook**: With stable inventory and a rebound in Thai cup rubber price, the strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene and Related Products - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS changed, and the profits of domestic products also fluctuated [2]. - **Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends over time [2].

触。成本方面，美国对伊朗核设施发动袭击，伊朗议会赞成封锁霍尔木兹海峡，地缘冲突升温或对国际油 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 价存在高位支撑。中东地缘冲突因素已阶段性消化，市场对局势是否进一步恶化存疑。短期L2509预计震荡 塑料产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7444 | 29 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7369 | 22 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7354 | 20 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7444 | 29 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 421810 | 7585 持仓量(日,手) | 477335 | -7189 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 15 | 2 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃周报 成本端支撑增强，聚烯烃价格重心或上移 20250622 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国，从业资格号:F03100622，交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计：本周，聚乙烯生产企业样本库存量预计：51万吨左右，库存预计由跌转涨，主因市场价格连续推涨， 下游工厂抵触高价，采购有放缓预期；中国聚丙烯生产企业库存量预计：59万吨左右，较本期下降，现货市场偏强运行，下游 存一定刚需消耗，因此预计生产企业库存窄幅下降。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计：本周，涉及中天合创等检修装置重启，新增浙江石化等计划检修装置，预计总产量在60.89万吨，总产 量环比-0.40万吨；中国聚丙烯总产量预估：78万吨，继续增加，延续上升趋势。 ◆ 需求：据隆众资讯统计：预计PE下游各行业整体开工率变化不大，企业下游有少量新单跟进，但下游终端备货意愿有所增强， 市场交投氛围有所好转；聚丙烯消费因进入季节性消费淡季持续转弱。 ◆ 产业链利润：油制PE与PP ...

聚乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 添加客服 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：伊以冲突进一步激化，带动国际油价上涨。受此影响，本周聚乙烯期货拉涨明显。截至2025年6 月20日收盘，L2509合约报收于7415元/吨，较上周收盘上涨2.16%。 基本面：供应端，本周万华、浙石化、中天合创、鄂能化装置停车，榆林、恒力装置重启，产量环比- 0.60%至61.29万吨，产能利用率环比-0.48%至78.69%，较上周变化不大。需求端，本周下游制品平均 开工率环比-0.06%，持续季节性下降。库存方面，生产企业库存环比-1.83%至49.94万吨，社会库存环 比-4.56%至55.93万吨，总库存压力不大。成本利润方面，本周油制LLDPE成本上涨至7756元/吨，油 制工艺亏损加深；煤制LLDPE利润维稳在5848元/吨，煤制利润小幅走阔 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 聚丙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 价格：伊以冲突进一步激化，带动国际油价上涨。受此影响，本周聚丙烯期货拉涨明显。截至2025年6月 20日收盘，PP2509合约报收于7242元/吨，较上周收盘上涨2.16%。 基本面：供应端，本周联泓新科、独山子石化、大庆海鼎装置短停，徐州海天、国能包头装置重启，PP产 量环比+1.52%至78.74万吨，产能利用率环比+1.20%至79.84%。需求端，本周PP下游平均开工率环比- 0.34%至49.63%。库存方面，本周PP商业库存环比+4.23%至82.05万吨，处于近三年同期中性水平。前 期停车装置陆续重启，生产企业供应增加，厂库环比+4.52%；现货价格上涨，部分中间商逢低拿货，贸 易商库存环比+6.18%；出口成交减少，资源向港口流动减少，港口库存环比-0.77%。成本利润方面，本 周油制PP成本上涨至7884.28元/吨，油制亏损加 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-20 美国可能介⼊伊以冲突，原油延续较⾼ 波动率 彭博报道，美国高层官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动袭击做准备， 涉事人员也表示，情势仍在变化，可能会有所改变。从原油的波动率看， 6月18日拐头后6月19日再度攀升。市场依旧关注霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的可 能，期权市场近期开始反映这种风险，看涨期权相对于看跌期权的溢价居 高不下，超过了2022年俄乌冲突时对俄罗斯供应减量的担忧。原油的格局 仍处于动荡中。 板块逻辑： 化工品处于上下两难的格局当中，主逻辑仍是跟随原油延续强势上 涨。化工链条公布周度数据，整体呈现终端开工下滑，上游开工攀升的格 局。以聚酯产业链为例，EG开工率升至五年最高，TA开工率周度略降， 聚酯周度开工小幅抬升，终端织造和印染开工下滑2-3%。产业链自身利好 仍略显平淡，原油延续强势，化工补涨仍是近期的主基调。 原油：地缘风险加剧，油价波动放大 LPG：成本端支撑增加，PG跟随原油反弹 沥青：地缘升级，沥青地缘溢价来袭 高硫燃油：地缘升级，高硫燃油地缘溢价来袭 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油走强 甲醇：伊以 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Nengzhiguang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has received approval for its initial public offering (IPO) on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focusing on the research, production, and sales of chemically modified functional polymer plastics [1] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 556 million yuan, 569 million yuan, and 611 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, indicating a revenue growth of 7.26% in 2024 [1] - Net profits for the same years were 21.86 million yuan, 49.81 million yuan, and 55.94 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.31% in 2024 [1] - Key financial metrics for 2024 include: - Revenue: 61,054.19 million yuan - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 5,594.09 million yuan - Basic earnings per share: 0.86 yuan - Weighted average return on equity: 15.92% [1] Investment Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to expanding production capacity for functional polymer materials, building a research and development center, and supplementing working capital [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.554 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 787 million yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from the lithium extraction project significantly declined, impacting the overall performance of the system equipment segment, while the adsorption materials business showed robust growth [2][3]. - The life sciences segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the demand for high-quality solid-phase synthesis carriers and the performance of GLP-1 peptide drugs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 662 million yuan, down 27.4% year-on-year, but up 10.89% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 191 million yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 577 million yuan, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year and 12.91% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit was 193 million yuan, an increase of 14.2% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The adsorption materials business generated 1.986 billion yuan in revenue, up 27.61% year-on-year, while the system equipment segment saw a revenue decline of 43.13% to 469 million yuan [2]. - The revenue from the lithium extraction system equipment was only 99 million yuan in 2024, a dramatic drop of 80.96% compared to 520 million yuan in 2023 [2]. Growth Areas - The life sciences segment's revenue reached 568 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 28% [3]. - The ultra-pure water segment achieved significant breakthroughs, with substantial orders from key semiconductor companies, indicating a growing market presence [3]. Profitability Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.127 billion yuan, 1.463 billion yuan, and 1.706 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3].