Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a slight increase of 0.16% on January 27, with Stik leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up by 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up by 0.09% [1] - Stik's stock price rose by 20.00% to 50.04, with a trading volume of 458,000 shares and a transaction value of 2.15 billion [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 1.263 billion from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.333 billion [2] - The top gainers included Kent Shares, which rose by 7.60% to 54.36, and Su Lai New Materials, which increased by 4.69% to 44.66 [1][2] - The top losers included Ruihua Tai, which fell by 4.73% to 29.62, and Foshan Plastic Technology, which decreased by 4.51% to 12.07 [2]

Core Insights - The plastic production in Henan Province for September 2025 reached 158,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, which is a decrease of 6.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, the total plastic production was 1,445,000 tons, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase, but this growth rate is 13.1 percentage points lower than the previous year [1] Group 1: Monthly Production Analysis - In September 2025, the plastic production in Henan accounted for 1.3% of the national total of 12,665,469.6 tons [1] - The growth rate of 2.6% in September is significantly lower than the national average, which is 7.8 percentage points lower [1] Group 2: Cumulative Production Analysis - From January to September 2025, Henan's plastic production also represented 1.3% of the national total of 10,970,311.3 tons [1] - The cumulative growth rate of 8.6% is 3.0 percentage points lower than the national average for the same period [1]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，上游报价挺涨 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6935 | 1.02% | 683322 | -4043 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -155 | | -165 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -27 | | -22 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6780 | | 6700 | | | | 东 华 | 6850 | | 6750 | | | | 华 南 | 6930 | | 6850 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货走强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，中游开单有部分改善。标品排产昨日维持，成交有 所改善，基差走弱。下游制品利润压缩，有所抵触高价。外盘报价上涨且 LL 货源偏少，远期进口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has introduced a policy proposal focused on plastics to promote a circular economy and boost the demand for recycled plastics [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The EU requires member states to amend the Single-Use Plastics Directive to enhance plastic recycling, mandating that by 2030, 30% of materials in specific beverage bottles sold domestically must be made from recycled plastics [1] - Member states are required to report the weight of compliant bottles sold and the weight of recycled plastics used in these bottles, with only mechanically recycled plastics currently recognized as recycled [1] - The amendment allows chemically recycled plastics to be considered as recycled plastics, introducing a quality balance method for calculating the amount of recycled plastics [1] Group 2: Implementation Standards - The European Commission proposed an implementation regulation to treat recycled plastics as secondary raw material standards, based on the Waste Framework Directive, establishing EU-wide standards for mechanically recycled plastics [1] Group 3: Regulatory Enhancements - The European Commission plans to improve regulations due to the issue of unused plastic raw materials imported from abroad being sold as recycled plastics, with a revision scheduled for the second quarter of 2026 [1] - Stricter compliance documentation will be required for imported recycled plastics used in food containers, along with a revision of tariff codes to distinguish between virgin plastics and recycled plastics [1]

Core Viewpoint - PEEK exhibits excellent performance, with downstream development and application expansion driving demand [1] Group 1: PEEK Market Overview - PEEK is a lightweight material with outstanding mechanical, physical, thermal, corrosion resistance, electrical properties, and biocompatibility, ranking at the top of the special engineering plastics pyramid [1] - After over 40 years of development, PEEK has been widely used in automotive, electronics, industrial manufacturing, aerospace, and medical fields, with significant potential in emerging industries such as new energy, low-altitude, and robotics [1] - The global PEEK consumption is projected to reach approximately 10,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.8%, with a forecasted market size of $1.226 billion by 2027 [1][70] - The domestic PEEK market is growing rapidly, with demand expected to increase at a CAGR of 23.5% from 1,100 tons in 2018 to 3,904 tons in 2024, leading to a market size of 1.455 billion yuan in 2024 [1][80] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The PEEK production technology is complex, with a competitive landscape characterized by one leading player and several strong competitors. Victrex leads globally, followed by Solvay and Evonik [2] - Domestic companies such as Zhongyan Co., Pengfulong, and Junhua Co. are gradually emerging, accelerating their market share through technological breakthroughs and improved product quality [2][30] Group 3: Key Raw Materials - DFBP is a critical raw material for PEEK synthesis, accounting for about 50% of PEEK production costs. Approximately 0.8 tons of DFBP is required to produce one ton of PEEK [3] - In 2023, global DFBP consumption was 6,646.97 tons, with a consumption value of 974 million yuan, while China's DFBP consumption was 1,910.71 tons, valued at 250 million yuan [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies in the upstream raw materials include Xinhang New Materials, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials, and Xingfu New Materials [4] - Companies involved in PEEK production include Zhongyan Co., Water Co., and Jinfat Technology [4] - Companies engaged in PEEK processing and application include Huitong Co., Tongyi Co., and Kent Co. [4] Group 5: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The PEEK industry faces challenges such as high production costs, long verification cycles, and the need for technological innovation to overcome processing difficulties [46][55] - The industry is exploring various avenues for breakthroughs, including technological innovation, cost reduction through vertical integration, and collaborative development with downstream partners [60][62] - Strong policy support is a key external factor enabling domestic PEEK companies to rise rapidly and challenge international giants [65][64]

Core Viewpoint - India and the European Union (EU) are negotiating a landmark free trade agreement that could be finalized as early as January 27, marking a significant development in trade relations after 18 years of discussions [1][2]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement is expected to create a market for 2 billion people and is projected to increase bilateral trade between India and the EU to approximately $136 billion in the fiscal year 2024-2025, with India exporting around $76 billion and importing about $60 billion [2][11]. - If signed, this will be India's largest and most comprehensive free trade agreement, allowing access to the EU's 27 member states under a single framework [2][11]. - Predictions indicate that by the fiscal year 2031, the agreement could increase India's trade surplus with the EU by over $50 billion, with the EU's share of India's total exports potentially rising from 17.3% in 2025 to 22%-23% [2][11]. Tariff Changes - Currently, the EU imposes an average tariff of about 3.8% on Indian goods, with labor-intensive sectors like textiles facing tariffs around 10% [3][12]. - The agreement aims to restore market access and reduce tariffs on key export products such as clothing, pharmaceuticals, steel, and machinery, helping Indian businesses cope with increased U.S. tariffs [3][12]. Sector-Specific Impacts - India is likely to protect politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy from the agreement, while tariffs on automobiles, wine, and spirits may be reduced gradually [4][13]. - The EU's average tariff on Indian exports is approximately 9.3%, with particularly high tariffs on automobiles and chemicals [15]. Automotive Industry Focus - India plans to reduce tariffs on EU-imported cars from 110% to 40%, a significant move to open its automotive market [16]. - The reduction will be phased, with tariffs on vehicles priced over €15,000 being lowered immediately, and further reductions expected over time [16][17]. - Currently, European car manufacturers hold less than 4% of the Indian market, dominated by local brands [16]. Challenges and Disputes - Key issues remain, including the EU's focus on intellectual property protection and India's concerns over the EU's new carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which could impose additional costs on Indian exports [5][14]. - The CBAM is viewed as a potential new border tax on Indian exports, particularly affecting small and medium enterprises due to compliance costs [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The price of LLDPE in East China has increased significantly, indicating a potential supply tightness or increased demand, which is favorable for spot prices [2][5]. Price Movement - On January 26, LLDPE7042 was reported at 7050 CNY/ton, up by 200 CNY/ton, while LLDPE7050 was at 7100 CNY/ton, also up by 200 CNY/ton [1][4]. Market Sentiment - The closing price of the 2605 contract for polyethylene futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6865 CNY/ton, an increase of 116 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 719,797 lots and an increase in open interest by 3,532 lots, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [2][5]. Price Forecast - The rise in spot prices is expected to reinforce upward expectations for futures prices, supporting future price trends [2][5]. Pricing Model - The benchmark price from the business society is derived from big data and pricing models, serving as a trading guide for settlement prices on specified dates or average prices over specified periods [2][5].

Group 1 - The core business of the company is the research, production, and sales of high-performance polyimide films [1] - The company is currently engaged in project cooperation and research and development in the aerospace sector [1] - By 2025, the revenue from the aerospace segment is projected to be approximately 1.8 million yuan, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue (unaudited) [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688323 | 瑞华泰 | 31.09 | 19.99% | 27.36万 | 8.31亿 | | 300806 | 斯迪克 | 41.70 | 13.93% | 48.79万 | 20.65亿 | | 001333 | 米华股份 | 26.25 | 3.51% | 4.82万 | 1.25亿 | | 001359 | 平安电工 | 78.33 | 1.99% | 2.15万 | 1.68亿 | | 301591 | 肯特股份 | 50.52 | 1.94% | 4.95万 | 2.52亿 | | 301395 | 仁信新材 | 14.32 | 1.92% | 7.23万 | 1.03亿 | | 000920 | 沃顿科技 | 13.67 | 1.11% | 11.43万 | 1.55亿 | | 301687 | 新广益 | 63.94 | 0.84% | 5.31万 | 3.38亿 | | 301092 | 争光股份 | 39.77 | 0.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of polyolefins has been briefly repaired, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with support at 6,600, and the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 6,500 [8]. - The supply - demand contradiction of plastics still exists, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The trend pressure of PP is relatively large, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Review - On January 23, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.54%. The average price of LDPE was 9,033.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%. The average price of HDPE was 7,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,987.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The South China basis of LLDPE was 122.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58.33%. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton (+6) [8][11]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 23, 2026 was 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton compared to January 16; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202 yuan/ton [15]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, in North China, the mainstream price of HDPE film increased by 53 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of low - melt injection molding increased by 50 yuan/ton [17]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $61.28 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 per barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $65.39 per barrel, an increase of $1.19 per barrel compared to the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [20][68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 530 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 244 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [25]. - **Supply**: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 84.67%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 698,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.34%. The weekly maintenance loss was 89,500 tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons compared to the previous week [31]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have new production capacity plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 5.5 million tons [34]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' devices are in the maintenance state, and the restart time of some devices is uncertain [35]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film was 36.32%, a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous week; the start - up rate of PE packaging film was 44.96%, a decrease of 3.19% compared to the previous week; the start - up rate of PE pipes was 29.00%, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the previous week [37]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34.7%, with a difference of 1.9% from the annual average level. The difference between the linear metallocene and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 5.1%, with a difference of 1.6% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 477,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% [43]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 10,474 lots, a decrease of 153 lots compared to the previous week [47]. Polypropylene (PP) Market Review - On January 23, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6,656 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.46% [51]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP - related products and other downstream products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of PP granules (T30S) remained unchanged, and the price of PP powder (225) increased by 100 yuan/ton [53][56]. - **Basis**: On January 23, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6,580 yuan/ton (+0.05%). The PP basis was - 76 yuan/ton (- 157), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 11 yuan/ton (+250) [58]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 23, 2026 was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to January 16; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 256 yuan/ton [66]. - **Cost**: The same as the cost data of plastics, last week, WTI crude oil closed at $61.28 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 per barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $65.39 per barrel, an increase of $1.19 per barrel compared to the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 465.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 154.20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 340.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 77.58 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.02%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 784,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 55,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65% [79]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are in the maintenance state, and the restart time of some devices is uncertain [82]. - **Demand**: This week, the average start - up rate of PP downstream was 52.87% (0.34%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.04% (- 0.56%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 64.02% (+0.46%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 60.20% (2.27%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 37.33% (- 0.84%) [84]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 386.92 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 135.39 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 34.09 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.54 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [90]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 432,900 tons (0.44%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 8.70% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 6.14% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 7.51% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 930.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%, and the raw material inventory of BOPP was 12.50 days, a month - on - month increase of 4.60% [92][95]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17,250 lots, a decrease of 258 lots compared to the previous week [99].