Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year in Q3 2025, significantly exceeding previous expectations of 154.2% [1]. - Revenue from China is projected to grow by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue is expected to increase by 365%-370% [1]. - The report highlights strong performance across various channels, with notable growth in both offline and online sales in China [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 63.3 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2025 to 2027 [9]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to grow to 22.2 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24% [9]. - The adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decline from 21.0x in 2025 to 12.6x in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [9][10]. Performance Metrics - The company has shown a significant increase in gross margin, expected to reach 72.4% by 2027 [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 40.9% in 2027, demonstrating strong profitability [10]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 18.7% by 2027, indicating low financial leverage [10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has expanded its store count to 542 in mainland China, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [7]. - The overseas market has also seen substantial growth, with a 1265%-1270% increase in the Americas and 735%-740% in Europe and other regions [7]. - New product launches have been successful, with popular items selling out on the first day of release [7].

研究报告 Research Report 26 Oct 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 澳优 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 九毛九 | | Outperform | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of developing new consumption driven by changing demographics and consumer attitudes, positioning it as a significant growth point in the market [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption is rapidly developing and has become a focal point in the market due to changes in population structure and consumer concepts [1] - Emotional consumption is identified as a key direction for new consumption development, leading to the emergence of new consumption sectors such as trendy toys, outdoor activities, pet economy, traditional gold ornaments, and beauty products [1] - The pursuit of quality-price ratio has resulted in the rise of new products like beverages and leisure snacks [1] Group 2: Social and Cultural Shifts - There is a need to embrace and guide new consumption with an open mindset, as evidenced by the shared consumption of trendy toys and anime culture among both middle-aged and young consumers, which is now a social phenomenon [1] - Non-professional sports events, such as Guizhou Village Super League, Jiangsu Super League, and Guangzhou Dragon Boat races, break conventional norms and provide better emotional value, stimulating local traffic and service consumption [1]

Core Insights - The潮玩 industry is transitioning from "product consumption" to "interactive services," driven by the expanding connotation of service consumption [1] - New service forms such as潮玩街区, customized figurines, and pop-up events are effectively stimulating young consumers' spending enthusiasm, becoming a rapidly growing segment of service consumption [1] Group 1 -潮玩街区 is leading a new consumption trend, with local brands shifting from "selling products" to "selling services" [3] - In Dongguan, companies are integrating cultural elements into modern designs, offering潮玩 products with cultural explanations and interactive services [3] - Brands are launching customizable and wearable doll outfits to meet young consumers' personalized needs, further expanding the boundaries and value of潮玩 services [3] Group 2 - The潮玩街区 in Xuhui District, Shanghai, spans 1.9 kilometers and attracted 1.5 million visitors in its first month, generating over 40 million yuan in sales [4] - Consumers can purchase various figurines and participate in潮玩-related pop-up events, with large installations integrating game IP into the consumption scene [4] Group 3 - In the first three quarters, national box office revenue increased by 20.7% year-on-year, with the "big screen + small潮玩" crossover becoming a new growth point in the market [6] - During the summer release, a domestic animated film achieved over 7 million yuan in surrounding sales on its opening day, with two blind box products selling over 3 million units [6] - Companies are responding precisely to young consumers' new consumption demands, focusing on creating experiences that resonate emotionally and facilitate social interactions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Pop Mart, reported a significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets, with a focus on enhancing customer experience and expanding its IP ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue Growth - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue (unaudited) increased by 245%-250% year-on-year, with domestic revenue growing by 185%-190% and overseas revenue by 365%-370% [1]. - Domestic offline channel revenue rose by 130%-135%, while online channel revenue surged by 300%-305%, indicating a solid domestic base [1]. - Overseas revenue growth was notable, with the Americas showing an increase of 1265%-1270%, Asia-Pacific at 170%-175%, and Europe at 735%-740% [1]. Group 2: Product Launches and Market Response - In September, the company launched multiple new products, including three plush items and over eight figurines, with some items selling out instantly and fetching up to four times their original price on secondary markets [1]. - The upcoming holiday season is expected to drive further sales, with new Halloween and Thanksgiving-themed products already generating significant interest and high resale values [2]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and IP Development - The company is enhancing consumer interaction through its IP ecosystem, which now spans animation, games, and theme parks, contributing to a richer consumer experience [2]. - The successful launch of the "LABUBU and Friends" animated series and upgrades to urban theme parks are part of the strategy to deepen consumer engagement and create a second growth curve [2]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 384 billion, 556 billion, and 700 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 194.4%, 45.0%, and 25.8% respectively [3]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 130 billion, 188 billion, and 237 billion, reflecting growth rates of 315.7%, 44.5%, and 26.3% [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that despite a significant drop in the stock price of Pop Mart by 16.34%, southbound funds are actively buying the stock, indicating a potential opportunity for investors [1][5]. - Southbound funds have recorded a net inflow of 172.77 billion HKD this week, marking a decrease of 61.68% compared to the previous week, and have seen continuous inflows for 23 weeks [2]. - Pop Mart's market capitalization has fallen below 310 billion HKD, yet it attracted a net purchase of 15.25 billion HKD from southbound funds [5]. Group 2 - In the latest quarterly report, Pop Mart's overall revenue is expected to grow by 245%-250% compared to the same quarter in 2024, with domestic revenue increasing by 185%-190% and overseas revenue by 365%-370% [5]. - The semiconductor sector has shown strong performance, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, while Pop Mart and other stocks have experienced declines [4]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has seen a significant increase in holdings from southbound funds, with a net purchase of 31.38 billion HKD this week, reflecting a positive sentiment towards the company [2].

Core Viewpoint - China's economic foundation remains stable, with multiple advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential, supporting the long-term positive trend and conditions for achieving high-quality foreign trade goals for the year [1][4]. Trade Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The growth rate has accelerated each quarter, from 1.3% in Q1 and 4.5% in Q2 to 6% in Q3, marking eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth [1][2]. - In September, foreign trade achieved a monthly growth rate of 8%, the highest monthly increase of the year, demonstrating strong resilience in external trade [2]. Business Dynamics - The number of foreign trade entities with import and export performance reached 700,000 for the first time in the first three quarters, surpassing the total for the previous year. Among these, 613,000 are private enterprises, which have become a significant force in China's foreign trade [2]. - Continuous optimization of trade layout and diversification strategies have effectively mitigated external market risks, injecting new momentum into China's foreign trade exports [2]. Product and Market Trends - The export scale of industrial robots grew by 54.9% in the first three quarters, while the export of wind turbine generators and parts increased by 23.9%. Domestic products like blind box figurines have become global bestsellers, indicating a shift towards high-quality supply that meets international market demands [2]. - The proportion of exports from independent brand products is increasing year by year, reflecting a continuous optimization of the export product structure [2]. Trade Events and Future Outlook - The upcoming Autumn Canton Fair showcases a variety of smart products, highlighting the transition from single products to comprehensive solutions in Chinese manufacturing. This event emphasizes the global appeal of China's industrial and supply chain systems [3]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will feature six major exhibition areas, focusing on cutting-edge achievements in low-altitude economy, new materials, and smart healthcare, aligning with the structural changes observed in foreign trade [3]. - Despite the positive trends, challenges such as weak global economic recovery, shrinking market demand, and existing trade barriers remain as pressures to be addressed in the fourth quarter [3].

Core Insights - Recent surge in companies from the New Third Board, such as Jintian Animation, Bama Tea, and Shenghuo Technology, seeking to list in Hong Kong, indicating a trend towards international capital markets [1][2] - Successful transitions of companies like Pop Mart and Smoore International to Hong Kong have set benchmarks for others, showcasing the potential value of such moves [4] Company Developments - Jintian Animation has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on IP-based fun food products, with projected revenues of 596 million RMB in 2022, increasing to 877 million RMB by 2024 [2] - Bama Tea is set to list at a maximum price of 50 HKD, with a strong market position in the Chinese tea industry, particularly in oolong and black tea, and has received backing from major investment firms [3] - Pop Mart has demonstrated significant growth since its Hong Kong listing, with a revenue increase of 245%-250% year-on-year, and a market capitalization reaching 309.4 billion HKD [4] Market Trends - The "New Third Board + H-share" model is gaining traction, allowing companies to leverage both domestic and international capital markets simultaneously [6][7] - Companies like Tian Tu Investment have successfully utilized this model, maintaining flexibility in financing while gaining international recognition [7] Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that while listing in Hong Kong can enhance brand visibility and resource integration, some companies may resort to this option due to challenges in listing on domestic exchanges [8]

明明是新消费龙头，业绩也不错，怎么就暴跌了呢？ "今日收到大量咨询，均聚焦泡泡玛特股价大幅下跌的驱动因素。" 10月23日，小摩发布回应泡泡玛特股价大跌的研究报告，但几乎没有什么有效结论。 泡泡玛特当天股价下跌10.6%，成交量达3倍日均成交量，连破250/230港元心理关口，创 4 个月新低。 尽管公司在周二盘后发布的2025年三季度销售额数据远超市场预期，股价仍出现上述跌幅。此次下跌始 于隔夜交易时段，泡泡玛特美国存托凭证下跌 10%，成交量达6倍日均成交量。受此影响，日本三丽鸥 股价也下跌 3.1%；同时，其他 "新消费" 板块个股同步承压：布鲁可（Bloks）下跌 5%、蜜雪冰城 （Mixue）下跌 6%、古茗（Guming）下跌 7%、老铺黄金（Laopu）下跌 2.5%。 小摩称，目前尚无单一明确的下跌驱动因素，以下分享几点观察与市场反馈： 动量交易平仓 + 大规模做空泡泡玛特 泡泡玛特23日成交额已超95亿港元，成为港股当日成交额最高的个股（阿里巴巴成交额为 78 亿港 元）。其做空成交额也创下上市以来新高，达约19.9亿港元；仅早盘时段，泡泡玛特的做空成交额就占 港股市场总做空成交额的10.8 ...

Core Insights - The market is closely watching which company will become the "first stock of card games" as Hitcard accelerates its listing process while the leading company, KAYOU, has not made significant progress since filing its prospectus [1] Company Overview - Hitcard, established only four years ago, has differentiated itself by accurately capturing the increasing commercialization demands of IP copyright holders [2] - The company focuses on adult collectible cards and has launched products based on popular IPs such as "Full-Time Master" and "Battle Through the Heavens" [2] - Hitcard has attracted investments from notable firms including Pop Mart, Sequoia China, and Tencent Literature, highlighting its strong industry and capital backing [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Hitcard achieved approximately 400 million yuan in revenue, representing a year-on-year increase of over 600% [5] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth in 2025, although current production capacity may not fully meet next year's targets [5] Market Trends - The trend of "no cards, no drama" is emerging in the film and television industry, indicating that most new IP card authorizations are quickly absorbed by card companies [6] - Hitcard has established a significant market presence, covering about 70% to 80% of the film and television card market share [7] Competitive Landscape - Compared to KAYOU, which operates around 70 IPs and has a revenue concentration where the top five IPs contribute 86% of total income, Hitcard's model of "multi-IP, limited edition, high-frequency new releases" enhances its market competitiveness [8] - Hitcard's strategy involves frequent product redesigns and a focus on environmentally friendly materials, which increases production costs but also drives innovation [8] Strategic Partnerships - To strengthen its core competitiveness, Hitcard is pursuing equity partnerships with industry players, including Japanese game company Cygames and Goodsmile, to enhance its overseas IP acquisition and operational capabilities [9] - The collaboration with Tencent Literature is particularly valuable, providing access to a resource pool of over 1,000 IPs and shared offline channel networks [2][9] Industry Dynamics - The rapid commercialization of IPs is becoming a key driver for the growth of derivative products, with Tencent Literature aiming to enhance its IP commercialization strategy at the group level [11] - The success of Hitcard and similar companies is contingent on their ability to refine product design, user operations, and channel management while leveraging upstream IPs [21]