Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has been declining, with a drop of over 7% recently, reflecting market concerns about its sustainability and valuation risks despite strong financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 8, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.78%, closing at 288.6 HKD per share [1]. - The short-selling data for Pop Mart has significantly increased, with short positions rising from 285,800 shares on August 29 to 6,266,200 shares by the previous Friday [2]. Group 2: Product Performance - The resale prices of the mini LABUBU figures have decreased significantly, with second-hand prices dropping to between 1,400 and 1,850 RMB, and some less popular styles falling to as low as 81 RMB [1][2]. - The mini LABUBU series was launched on August 28, with an original price of 79 RMB per blind box, but the average resale price has decreased by 60% from its initial peak [1][2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion RMB, up 362.8% [2]. - Despite the strong financial results, some institutions express concerns about the long-term sustainability and short-term valuation risks of Pop Mart [2][3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The stock has seen a significant price increase of 588% over the past 12 months, leading to profit-taking pressures in the short term [3]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that while the net profit growth exceeded expectations, it only "roughly met" the elevated expectations from buyers [3].

泡泡玛特(09992)：泡泡玛特作为潮玩文化代表企业，自上市以来市值和流动性显著提升，成为指数中 新消费板块的重要代表。 晋景新能(01783)：近日，晋景新能集团(01783)美国首条动力电池处置示范线于罗得岛州正式启动，标 志着集团在北美循环经济领域迈入全新阶段。 相关概念股： 周六福(06168)：今年上半年，周六福实现收入31.5亿元，同比增加5.2%;归母净利润4.15亿元，同比增 加11 .9%。公司表示，随着近年金价不断走高，公司近年开始亦探索更加轻质化、时尚化的产品设计， 通过IP联名、黄金与其他材质的组合配饰等策略，以期放大产品与品牌的复合属性，带来更高的客户黏 性、毛利率和盈利能力。 智通财经APP获悉，9月8日开盘前，深交所发布关于深港通下的港股通标的证券名单调整的公告，调入 周六福(06168)、晋景新能(01783)等标的，并自9月8日起生效。日前，恒生指数有限公司宣布了2025年 第二季度之恒生指数系列检讨结果。根据港股通纳入规则，恒生综合指数成分股是港股通标的股票的主 要来源之一。其中，周六福、中国食品(00506)、恒瑞医药(01276)等被纳入恒生综合指数成份股，成份 股变动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable performance of Pop Mart, particularly driven by the LABUBU series, which has seen explosive growth in revenue and market interest, reminiscent of past trends in collectible markets like "sneaker flipping" and "bearbrick speculation" [3][4][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit surged by 362.8% to 4.71 billion RMB during the same period [3]. - The LABUBU series alone generated 4.81 billion RMB in revenue, a staggering growth of 668%, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Sales - The launch of the mini LABUBU on August 28 sold out within 60 seconds, with a peak resale price reaching 1,388 RMB, a 1,657% markup from the original price of 79 RMB [3][5]. - Over 580,000 consumers added the mini LABUBU to their shopping carts before the sale, indicating high demand [5]. - The secondary market saw prices for complete sets of LABUBU toys reaching an average of 1,920.77 RMB, with some transactions exceeding 2,580 RMB [6]. Group 3: Global Expansion - Pop Mart operates 571 retail stores and 2,597 robot stores across 18 countries and regions as of mid-2025 [9]. - Revenue from the Asia-Pacific region reached 2.85 billion RMB, up 258%, while the Americas saw revenue of 2.27 billion RMB, increasing by 1,142% [9]. - The company’s global strategy includes opening flagship stores in major cities, such as London and Paris, to enhance brand visibility [9]. Group 4: IP Development and Future Outlook - Pop Mart emphasizes a balanced development of its IP matrix, with five IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in sales each during the first half of 2025 [10]. - The LABUBU brand is seen as a "gold mine" with potential for further exploration and innovation in product applications [11]. - The company is building a "LABUBU universe" to expand its product offerings and enhance consumer engagement [11]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The success of LABUBU reflects a shift in consumer behavior, particularly among Generation Z, who prioritize emotional connection and self-rewarding purchases [12]. - The article notes a trend towards more rational consumption, with consumers becoming less impulsive and more focused on the actual value of collectible items [12].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market reflects the steady recovery of the real economy, with the new consumption trend gaining momentum, driven by policy support and evolving consumer behavior [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since August, the new consumption trend has shown a resurgence, with certain trendy toy IP companies experiencing a maximum increase of over 30% [2] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a moderate recovery, with a consensus on expanding domestic demand, suggesting that the consumer sector is in a phase of stabilization and potential growth [2] - The current consumption landscape differs from the 2019-2020 period, characterized by a shift towards emotional spending and cultural confidence, requiring fund managers to adopt a bottom-up stock selection approach [2][3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes in new consumption are identified: spiritual consumption products like trendy gold jewelry, cost-effective mass consumer goods, and domestic beauty and personal care products [2][3] - The demand for trendy gold jewelry is shifting from traditional wedding uses to self-indulgence, with brands offering affordable, aesthetically pleasing products that appeal to younger consumers [3] - Cost-effective consumer goods are gaining traction as consumers prioritize value over brand loyalty, with strategies like bulk purchasing and reduced distribution costs enhancing market penetration [3] Group 3: Performance and Strategy - The funds managed by the company have shown significant growth, with net value growth rates of 29.50% and 23.84% for two products, outperforming their respective benchmarks [4] - The company aims to continue selecting companies with strong competitive advantages and barriers to entry in thriving industries to drive portfolio returns [4]

Group 1: Overview of China's Consumer Market in 2025 - The Chinese consumer market in the first half of 2025 shows a unique trend of "macro caution, micro activity," with consumer confidence at historical lows while core consumption categories are steadily recovering [12][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with May's growth rate reaching a two-year high [16][19] - The food category led the growth with a 12.3% year-on-year increase, driven by the rapid expansion of new channels like snack specialty stores and membership discount supermarkets [16][19] Group 2: Tourism Recovery - The tourism industry has seen a strong recovery, with international flight passenger volumes in the first and second quarters of 2025 increasing by 9% and 13% compared to the same periods in 2019 [20][36] - Domestic travel also surged, with 329 million trips taken in the first half of 2025, an 18% increase from 2019 [20][36] - The number of inbound tourists reached over 35 million in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, marking a historical high for a single quarter [29][36] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - China has become the world's largest automobile exporter, with nearly 5.5 million vehicles exported in 2024, an eightfold increase from 2019 [24][28] - NEVs accounted for nearly half of passenger car exports in the first half of 2025, with domestic brands holding a market share close to 90% in the NEV segment [28][21] - BYD surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer in 2024, with sales reaching 4.27 million units and revenue of $108 billion [28] Group 4: Cultural Export and Trends - The cultural export sector, particularly in video games and trendy toys, has gained momentum, with the game "Black Myth: Wukong" selling 28 million copies and generating revenue of 9 billion yuan [42][43] - The toy brand Pop Mart's Labubu character has gained global popularity, with revenue from the "Monster Series" increasing by 726% year-on-year, reaching over 3 billion yuan [43][46] - The overseas market contribution to Pop Mart's revenue rose from 4% in 2021 to 39% in 2024, indicating a significant expansion [43] Group 5: Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market in Hong Kong saw a significant rebound in the first half of 2025, with total financing reaching 107.1 billion HKD, a substantial increase from the previous year [37][41] - Consumer-related companies have become a major force in the capital market, with four out of the top ten IPOs in Hong Kong coming from the consumer sector [37][41] - Private equity and venture capital activities also surged, with transaction volumes in the second quarter reaching 2.28 trillion yuan, doubling from the previous quarter [41] Group 6: Foreign Brands in China - Foreign brands are experiencing a resurgence in China, particularly in the outdoor sportswear segment, which has seen sales double over the past five years [47] - Several new or expanding brands have achieved annual revenues exceeding $500 million, reflecting the growing consumer interest in health and outdoor activities [47] - This trend indicates a robust market opportunity for international brands to adapt to local demands and capitalize on China's consumption upgrade [47]

研究报告 Research Report 7 Sep 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 澳优 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 九毛九 | | Outperform | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | 康 ...

证券分析师 证券研究报告 | 商贸零售 | | --- | 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 07 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 体育产业支持政策落地；国内折叠自行车龙头新股上市 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.9.1-2025.9.5） 投资要点： 1）品牌力：根据灼识咨询的数据，按 2024 年零售量计，公司在中国内地折叠自行 车行业排名第一，市场份额达 26.3%，按 2024 年零售额计，公司亦位居中国内地折 叠自行车行业首位，市场份额为 36.5%。 2）渠道力：截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，公司与遍布中国 30 个省级行政区的 38 家经 销商合作，覆盖 680 个零售点。分渠道看，国内经销收入为公司收入的主要构成， 2024 年公司国内经销收入 3.07 亿元，占公司总收入的 68%；国内直销收入占 2024 年公司收入的 25%。于往绩记录期间，大行的产品销往中国内地以外的 28 个国家和 地区，包括日本、泰国、美国及欧盟。 3）产品力：大行自行车主要包括 ...

Key Points - The article discusses significant events in the international expansion of various companies, highlighting trends and developments in the global market [2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - TikTok Shop in the US has hired Autumn Communications as its public relations agency, with sales in the US increasing by 120% year-on-year as of mid-June [5][8]. - TikTok Shop's gross merchandise volume (GMV) in Indonesia reached $6.2 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year, while the US remains the largest market with $9 billion [10]. - Temu has captured 15.98% of the Mexican e-commerce market, surpassing competitors like Mercado Libre and Amazon [10][11]. - AliExpress is preparing a high-profile brand export project, aiming to launch before the Double 11 shopping festival, with aggressive growth targets [14]. - Meituan's food delivery service Keeta plans to pilot in Brazil in October, targeting a market worth $12 billion with an expected annual growth rate of 20% [15][17]. - Baidu has launched the "SnapEat AI" app for fitness tracking overseas, utilizing AI to provide nutritional information from food images [19]. - Bawang Tea has opened its first stores in the Philippines, expanding its international presence to seven markets [20][22]. - TOP TOY has opened its first store in Japan, achieving sales of over 11 million yen on the first day [25]. Group 2: Industry Trends - AI is increasingly becoming a partner for small and medium enterprises, with 63% of global SMEs adopting AI in trade [27]. - New cross-border e-commerce policies in China have eliminated the registration requirement for overseas warehouses, enhancing operational efficiency by 35% [28]. - The US AI startup Anthropic has banned Chinese companies from using its services, citing legal and security risks [30][32]. - Mercado Livre is entering the pharmaceutical retail sector in Brazil through the acquisition of a pharmacy, aiming to leverage its logistics network [35]. - The Mexican government plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly in the automotive and textile sectors, to protect local businesses [37]. - The largest Korean fashion e-commerce platform, MUSINSA, is entering the Chinese market with plans to open over 100 stores by 2030 [38][40]. - B&Q, the UK's largest home and garden retailer, is opening its platform to Chinese sellers, creating new opportunities for cross-border e-commerce [42][43].

Group 1: Nestlé Leadership Change - Nestlé's former CEO Laurent Freixe was dismissed due to a violation of the company's code of conduct related to a romantic relationship with a subordinate [3] - Philipp Navratil, who has over 20 years of experience at Nestlé, has been appointed as the new CEO, effective immediately [3] - Navratil previously led Nestlé's coffee business, which generates nearly 200 billion yuan in sales and accounts for over 22% of the company's total revenue [3] Group 2: Challenges in Greater China - Nestlé's Greater China region reported a 6.5% decline in profits, amounting to a loss of 1.5 billion yuan, and a 1.8% drop in sales for the first half of 2025 [4] - The company's growth strategy in this region is shifting from channel-driven distribution to consumer demand-driven sales, while also reducing inventory [4] - The coffee business in China is a focal point, with ongoing collaboration with Luckin Coffee to enhance product development [4] Group 3: Bubble Mart's Mini Labubu Price Drop - The resale price of the Mini Labubu toy has decreased by 10% to 30% within a week of its launch, with the most popular "L" version dropping nearly 30% [7] - The rapid price decline is attributed to oversupply and consumer dissatisfaction with product quality [7][8] - Bubble Mart's production capacity has increased significantly, with plush product output exceeding ten times that of the previous year [8] Group 4: Bawang Tea's Performance - Bawang Tea reported a 23% decline in monthly GMV, the only negative growth among six listed tea brands [9] - The company is facing challenges from intensified price wars on delivery platforms, impacting customer retention [10] - Despite a strong expansion with 2042 new stores, the rapid growth has led to internal competition, diluting sales performance [10] Group 5: MaxMara's Pricing Strategy - MaxMara maintains prices in China that are over twice those in Europe, leading to consumer backlash and a thriving gray market [11] - The brand's pricing strategy aims to create a high-end image, but risks could arise from regulatory changes and increased competition [11][12] - Chinese consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, seeking value and transparency, which could challenge MaxMara's pricing model [12][13] Group 6: H&M's Expansion in China - H&M has opened two new stores in Shenzhen, including its largest flagship store in Southern China [19] - The brand is adapting to the Chinese market by enhancing its product offerings and entering new e-commerce platforms [20] - H&M's strategy focuses on maintaining affordability while transitioning towards a more fashionable and quality-oriented brand image [21] Group 7: Kweichow Moutai's Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai regained its position as the highest-priced stock in A-shares, closing at 1476.1 yuan per share [23] - The stock's fluctuation was influenced by a brief surge in the price of another company, which was later corrected [23] Group 8: Elliott's Investment in PepsiCo - Elliott Investment Management has acquired a stake worth $4 billion in PepsiCo, becoming one of its largest investors [24] - The firm has proposed five major reform initiatives aimed at optimizing the beverage business and enhancing accountability [25] Group 9: GAP's Entry into Beauty Market - GAP announced its entry into the beauty market, testing products in 150 Old Navy stores [26] - The initiative aims to expand its product range and attract a broader customer base [26]

Group 1 - Chinese dramas, referred to as "C-Drama," are gaining significant popularity in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Japan, with millions of posts on social media platforms [1] - The unique storytelling and cultural elements of Chinese dramas, such as "Qing Yu Nian" and "Cang Hai Chuan," resonate with global audiences, providing insights into Chinese culture through well-crafted historical settings and costumes [1] - The production quality of Chinese dramas has improved significantly, with top series investing over 10 million yuan per episode, resulting in cinematic quality that appeals to international viewers [1] Group 2 - The cultural trade from China is projected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan by 2024, showcasing strong competitiveness in the global market [2] - The shift from "one-way output" to "deep co-creation" is essential for cultural exports, exemplified by the Thai adaptation of "Thirty Only: Bangkok Edition," which integrates local elements into the narrative [2] - The development of IP (Intellectual Property) is becoming a focus, moving beyond simple copyright sales to include international collaboration and local cultural integration [2] Group 3 - Digital empowerment is becoming a core variable in future competition, with brands like Pop Mart thriving overseas through digital operations and AI tools facilitating the global reach of web literature [3] - The role of digital platforms in cultural exports is evolving from mere channels to engines of growth, as seen with platforms like TikTok and Reels, which significantly boost the visibility of Chinese cultural content [3] - Embracing change, innovation, and open collaboration is crucial for maintaining a competitive edge in the cultural industry, positioning China as a key player in the global cultural trade landscape [3]