Power Generation Sector - The core viewpoint is that the northern thermal power sector shows resilience while hydropower maintains stable growth, leading to an "overweight" rating for the public utility sector [1] - In Q1 2025, the profitability of national thermal power companies continues to grow, with northern thermal power plants outperforming southern ones [1] - The median PE ratios for thermal power companies have decreased from 15.7 in Q1 2023 to 10.4 in Q1 2025, indicating a decline in market confidence regarding the sustainability of profit improvements [1][2] - Hydropower companies maintained a high growth rate in Q1 2025, with a median profit growth rate of 26%, driven by improved water storage and scheduling [2] - The median PE ratios for hydropower companies were 16.7, 18.8, and 18.1 for Q1 2023, Q1 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively, reflecting stable performance and improved valuations for leading companies [2] Green Energy Sector - Green energy companies are facing profit pressure due to declining electricity prices and unfavorable wind conditions, with median net profit growth rates of -12% in 2024 and -4% in Q1 2025 [3] - The overall industry is experiencing a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits, with expectations of recovery in 2025 as wind energy utilization hours improve [3] - Since 2022, the valuation of green energy companies has been continuously revised downwards, with a projected median net profit growth rate of around 12% for 2025 [3] Yiwu Trade Data - Yiwu's import and export total reached 231.31 billion yuan in the first four months of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with exports growing by 15.3% and imports by 13.5% [5] - The market procurement trade method accounted for 81.7% of Yiwu's total exports, indicating a strong contribution from this trade model [5][6] - Exports to major markets such as Latin America, the EU, and ASEAN showed strong growth, with increases of 18.3%, 15.5%, and 12.3% respectively [6] - The import structure is improving, with a significant increase in imports of mechanical and electrical products by 73.4% in the first four months [7]

中长期交易"压仓锁价"，筑牢收益底线。配售电公司根据市场供需形势、现货价格走势和机组检修方式，将各厂年度交易锁定80%基 本盘压仓；通过分析东西部区域价差规律，建议各厂优先与低价区域用户签约；与同行业建立良好合作关系，灵活置换冗余电量，提升 交易流动性，全力获取中长期保价收益。截至4月底，蒙西火电完成中长期交易电量82.43亿千瓦时，合约签约率完成109%，在五大发电 集团中控制最优；中长期交易均价完成343.37元/兆瓦时，在五大发电集团中位居次席，为集团公司锁定保底收入超过28亿元。 现货交易"分钟级狙击"，捕捉价格脉冲。配售电公司不断完善现货交易日调度工作机制，月内实施"政策研究响应-日调度-周跟踪-月 复盘"闭环管理，日内实施"晨间价格预判-日内大盘调仓-夜间复盘总结"工作流程，借助营销数字平台及辅助决策系统建立"数据雷达"， 整合全网海量信息，精准预判价格走势，动态测算合约签约比例，利用日内融合挂牌和置换交易窗口，灵活调整持仓掘金，严格遵循"日 保周、周保旬、旬保月"工作原则，精打细算提高机组盈利水平。4月份，蒙西火电现货市场电能均价、售电均价均在五大发电集团中排 名第一，创现货市场开启以来历史最高 ...

Group 1: Meituan (3690 HK) - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan, with a target price adjusted to HKD 165.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the closing price of HKD 129.40 [1] - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with core business and new business revenues increasing by 18% and 19% respectively. The adjusted operating profit margin for the core business improved by 3.2 percentage points to 21% [1][2] - The report anticipates that increased competition in the food delivery sector may impact revenue and profit growth in Q2 2025, projecting a revenue growth of 4% for food delivery and 30% for flash purchase services [2] Group 2: Huya Group (YY US) - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huya Group, with a target price of USD 60.00, suggesting a potential upside of 29.9% from the closing price of USD 46.19 [3] - In Q1 2025, Huya's revenue was USD 490 million, a year-on-year decline of 12%. Live streaming revenue decreased by 20%, while non-live streaming revenue increased by 25%, raising its revenue share to 25% [3] - The report expects Huya's BIGO live streaming segment to stabilize and recover in Q2 2025, with advertising revenue anticipated to accelerate in growth [3] Group 3: China Power (2380 HK) - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power, with an increased target price of HKD 3.77, reflecting an 18.2% potential upside from the closing price of HKD 3.19 [6] - For the first four months of 2025, China Power's total electricity generation increased slightly by 0.3% year-on-year, with wind and solar power generation rising by 32.1% and 13.6% respectively [6] - The report notes that the domestic coal prices have dropped over 7% since the end of March 2025, leading to an expected improvement in the fire power price differential for the first half of the year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall profitability of the A-share public utility industry is expected to continue improving in 2024 and Q1 2025, despite emerging supply growth impacts on electricity prices and utilization hours, leading to potential performance divergence among sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The A-share public utility industry is projected to see a slight revenue decline of 0.1% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to falling market electricity prices driven by reduced fuel costs [1] - The industry’s net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 11.3% year-on-year, with ROE increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 8.6%, indicating a recovery to historical normal levels [1] - Capital expenditure in the industry is anticipated to rise by 20.8% year-on-year in 2024, supported by strong cash flow generation capabilities [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - **Thermal Power**: The domestic thermal coal price is expected to decrease by 11.4% year-on-year in 2024, improving profitability for thermal power companies. Despite supply shocks leading to lower market electricity prices in Q1 2025, further declines in fuel costs are projected to support profit growth [2] - **Hydropower**: The national hydropower utilization hours are expected to increase by over 200 hours year-on-year in 2024, resulting in a 17.4% profit growth. The continued improvement in water inflow is expected to provide a basis for further profit growth in 2025 [3] - **Nuclear Power**: New units like Fangchenggang Unit 4 are expected to drive a 2.9% increase in nuclear power generation in 2024. However, a one-time tax payment in Q4 2024 is projected to lead to a decline in net profit [4] - **Renewable Energy**: Investment in renewable energy is expected to grow by 12.5% year-on-year to 754.5 billion yuan in 2024, but challenges in resource adjustment and transmission capacity are anticipated to negatively impact profitability, with net profit expected to decline by 14.3% in 2024 [5] - **Gas**: The gas sector is expected to see steady demand growth and a decline in gas prices, leading to stable performance. However, individual company factors may cause slight overall profit declines [6]

Core Insights - The energy sector shows strong fundamentals, resilience, and potential for growth as indicated by the 2024 annual reports and Q1 2025 disclosures [1] Industry Overview - The overall revenue for the electricity sector in 2024 reached 1.8256 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 166.23 billion yuan, reflecting significant improvement in profitability [1] - The electricity index increased by 13.80% from the beginning of the year, with hydropower showing relatively strong performance compared to other sub-sectors [3] - The demand for electricity is expected to grow by approximately 6% in 2025, driven by factors such as AI computing power and electric vehicle adoption [9] Company Performance - Huaneng International topped the revenue rankings in the electricity sector with total revenue of 245.55 billion yuan, despite a slight decrease of 3.48% year-on-year [3][4] - Longjiang Electric, a leading hydropower company, reported a revenue of 84.49 billion yuan in 2024, up 8.12%, and a net profit of 32.50 billion yuan, up 19.28% [5] - China General Nuclear Power achieved total revenue of 86.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, with net profit growth of 0.83% [6][7] Market Trends - The electricity sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, supported by ongoing energy structure transformation and market reforms [9][10] - The construction of a unified national electricity market is progressing, with a significant increase in market participants, enhancing resource allocation efficiency [9] - The fire power sector is anticipated to continue its strong recovery due to low coal prices, while hydropower may face challenges from reduced rainfall [10][11] Strategic Outlook - The ongoing market reforms and the push for carbon neutrality are expected to reshape the valuation of electricity operators, with potential for improved operating environments for thermal power [11] - Mergers and acquisitions within the electricity sector are anticipated to enhance the resilience and valuation of state-owned enterprises [11]

Macro Strategy - The central bank's balance sheet is expected to continue shrinking due to the recent reserve requirement ratio cut, which may lead to further "balance sheet reduction" [1][8] - The US-China trade negotiations have boosted market confidence, resulting in a significant rise in US Treasury yields and a drop in gold prices [1][10] - The April US CPI showed an unexpected decline, but concerns about tariff risks remain, leading to cautious inflation outlooks [1][10] Fixed Income - The report analyzes the common characteristics of city investment platforms eligible to issue technology innovation bonds, emphasizing the importance of external ratings and financial independence from local governments [2][12] - City investment platforms with high credit ratings and low dependence on local government support are more likely to successfully issue technology innovation bonds [2][13] Industry - The issuance of the "Ecological Environment Protection Supervision Work Regulations" aims to enhance environmental governance and support high-quality development [3][14] - The solid waste sector is expected to see improved cash flow and dividend payouts due to reduced capital expenditures and enhanced operational efficiency [3][15] - The public utility sector is witnessing regulatory changes in Guangdong, which may impact the pricing mechanisms for renewable energy projects [4][17] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power as summer approaches, highlighting specific companies such as China Yangtze Power and Huadian International [4][17] - The growth potential of nuclear power is emphasized, with several new approvals expected to enhance profitability and dividends [4][17] - The report suggests that green energy companies may benefit from improved asset quality and government support for historical subsidy issues [4][17] Specific Company Insights - Ruoyu Chen is positioned as a leading digital brand management company, with significant growth expected in its health product segment and an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6] - Chunqiu Electronics is experiencing steady revenue growth driven by the recovery in the PC market and the ramp-up of its magnesium alloy business for automotive applications [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electricity and utilities sector [8] Core Viewpoints - The electricity and utilities sector demonstrates strong defensive characteristics and stable performance, with hydroelectric power showing consistent profitability [5][12] - The sector includes 225 listed companies, primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant contributions from thermal, hydro, and other power generation sectors [5][12] - In 2024, the sector's operating revenue reached 25,527.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2,081.10 billion, up 6.79% [17][41] - The financial cost rate of the sector continues to decline, enhancing profitability, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 6,243.77 billion in 2024, an increase of 11.75% [26][25] - The sector's dividend yield is positioned in the top third of the market, with a three-year average dividend payout ratio of 43.16% [34][53] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Stability and Defensive Characteristics - The electricity and utilities sector is characterized by stability and strong defensive capabilities, with a 2024 index increase of 13.84% [13][17] - The sector's financial cost rate decreased to 4.44% in 2024, aiding in reduced financing costs and improved profitability [26][25] - The sector's net asset return rate was 8.38% in 2024, with gross and net profit margins of 21.61% and 10.61%, respectively [25][46] 2. Hydroelectric Power Performance - Hydroelectric power is the most profitable sub-sector, with a gross margin of 54.41% and a net margin of 38.16% in 2024 [42][41] - Hydroelectric power contributed 23.91% of the sector's net profit in 2024, with a significant focus on shareholder returns [41][52] - The sector's overall profit contribution from power generation enterprises was 82% in 2024, with hydroelectric power ranking among the top contributors [41][37] 3. Individual Company Performance - Individual company performance varies, with hydroelectric companies showing the most stable results [5][6] - In 2025 Q1, hydroelectric power generation increased by 5.9% year-on-year, benefiting from favorable water conditions [50][49] - The financial performance of companies in Henan province showed a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit in 2024 [8][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a long-term investment perspective, focusing on large hydroelectric and nuclear power companies with stable profitability [8][5]

机组源头治理，主要是强化新建煤电节水要求，督促火电企业运用先进节水技术，将节水贯穿在新建煤 电的规划、选址、设计、建设及运行过程中，保障新建煤电机组的节水能力达到行业先进水平。如强制 要求新建煤电采用空气冷却、废水零排放等先进节水技术。 老旧设备更换改造，主要是将现有火电机组老旧、低效的冷却塔和循环水泵等设备更换为高效节能型设 备，降低火电冷却系统的耗水量，如在冷凝塔上方加装风挡，减少水汽蒸发量，提高冷却水的回收率。 近年来，相关部门先后印发出台了《国家鼓励的工业节水工艺、技术和装备目录（2023年）》、《关于 加快发展节水产业的指导意见》等一系列水资源管理政策，对火电行业的用水效率和节水水平提出了更 高要求。2025年初，内蒙古自治区党委、政府立足区内水资源开发利用现状，将开展节水行动纳入"六 个行动"进行部署，把节水作为一项事关经济社会发展全局的重要工作，全面打响内蒙古节水攻坚战。 2025年3月，内蒙古自治区能源局制定了全区能源领域节水行动实施方案，会同各盟市能源主管部门持 续完善节水工作体系建设，确定了2025年火电行业20个重点推进的节水改造项目，印发《关于2025年火 电行业节水行动任务目标》，将 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huadian International has received regulatory approval for its asset restructuring, marking the official start of the implementation phase of the restructuring plan [2][4]. Group 1: Restructuring Details - The restructuring plan involves Huadian International acquiring controlling stakes in eight companies, including Huadian Jiangsu Energy Co., Ltd., for a total consideration of 71.67 billion yuan, funded through share issuance and cash payments [2][5]. - The company plans to raise up to 34.28 billion yuan in supporting funds, with 14.28 billion yuan allocated for cash payments and related fees, and 20 billion yuan for the expansion of the Huadian Wangting 2×66 MW unit project [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Post-restructuring, Huadian International's installed capacity will increase to approximately 7,588 MW, representing a growth of about 26.85% compared to pre-transaction levels [2][7]. - The projected financials for 2024 indicate that Huadian International's revenue and net profit will reach 141.33 billion yuan and 6.04 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 25.07% and 5.93% compared to pre-restructuring figures [3][9]. Group 3: Market Context - The restructuring is taking place against a backdrop of recovering profitability in the thermal power sector, with significant improvements in coal and natural gas production and a decrease in prices [7][8]. - In 2024, thermal power generation is expected to account for 67.36% of the total national power generation, indicating a stable demand for thermal energy [7].

Capital Operations - Multiple central enterprises have outlined merger and restructuring plans focusing on strategic emerging industries and future industries, particularly in pharmaceuticals and new materials[7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has relaxed policies on major asset restructuring, encouraging quality enterprises to grow through mergers and acquisitions[7] - Central enterprises are accelerating the integration of group resources and divesting inefficient assets to enhance the industrial chain[7] Dividend Performance - The overall dividend payout ratio for central enterprises reached 50.7% in 2024, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven significantly by the telecommunications and transportation sectors[9] - China Mobile's dividend amount for 2024 was 100.8 billion yuan, leading the A-share central enterprises in dividends, with a commitment to gradually increase its payout ratio to 75% starting in 2024[9] - In the transportation sector, China COSCO Shipping's dividend reached 25.1 billion yuan, with its payout ratio rising from 15.6% in 2021 to 50.0% in 2022, maintaining a high level thereafter[9] Industry Insights - Traditional sectors like oil, petrochemicals, and steel have seen a decline in overall dividend amounts due to industry cycle fluctuations, yet the median dividend payout ratio for listed central enterprises continues to rise[10] - Over 40% of listed central enterprises in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and basic chemicals have not implemented dividends, indicating room for improvement in dividend policies[10]