春节长假临近，"持币过节"还是"持基过节"成为资金策略抉择。2月10日上午，市场延续热点轮动，两市红利标杆品种——中证红利ETF （515080）截至发稿涨0.06%、日K冲击6连阳，实时成交额居同类前列，最新规模81.59亿元；成份股中文传媒、中南传媒等领涨，中国海 油、中国石油及银行多股同步走强。 分析指出，在节前市场波动加大、热点快速切换的背景下，资金向高股息、低估值资产的倾斜趋势明显。 据中泰证券分析，一方面，在2月初市场波动明显放大的背景下，科技与高弹性周期板块回撤幅度较大；相比之下，高股息及稳健类板块整体 回撤幅度相对有限。另一方面，从纵向估值修复的角度看，高股息板块虽在年初以来出现边际回暖，但整体仍运行于历史低估值区间。 同时在低利率市场环境下，以煤炭、银行为代表的高股息板块，其股息率显著高于长期国债收益率，构成了扎实的"安全垫"。市场表现方面， 近期高股息资产在波动中展现出较强的抗跌性，同时估值仍处于历史偏低区间，具备横向防御与纵向修复的双重特征。 此外，高股息板块当前收益率较长债更具吸引力，估值仍处历史偏低区间，走势呈现"横向抗跌、纵向修复"。从行业层面看，当前A股市场中 股息率最高的板块为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry index is experiencing fluctuations, with a slight decline of approximately 0.4%, while certain stocks are performing well, indicating mixed performance in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The largest petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a net inflow of 1.463 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, reaching a new high of 1.8 billion yuan in total scale [1] - Major industry indices such as Shenwan Media, Shenwan Nonferrous Metals, Shenwan Petroleum and Petrochemicals, and Shenwan Basic Chemicals have all increased by over 10% this year, leading among 31 Shenwan industry indices [1] Group 2: Investment Drivers - Analysts from Dongwu Securities suggest that the resource sector is entering a major cycle, driven by new demand from AI and high-end manufacturing, while supply is constrained by geopolitical factors [1] - The ongoing narrative of de-dollarization and macroeconomic factors is contributing to the sustained price increase of bulk commodities, resulting in high industry prosperity [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the petrochemical industry index, benefiting from both basic chemicals and petroleum and petrochemical sectors [1] - Key weighted stocks in the ETF include Wanhua Chemical (global MDI leader), China Petroleum (domestic oil and gas leader), Sinopec (domestic refining leader), and Salt Lake Potash (domestic potash fertilizer leader) [1]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that the cyclical sector is expected to enter an expansion phase, with both cyclical and growth sectors currently in the analysts' expansion zone, resonating with the industry mainline model [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative amount of pending foreign exchange settlement funds since 2022 is approximately 1.13 trillion USD, with a weighted average exchange rate of 7.1 [2] - It is projected that the USD to RMB exchange rate will likely stabilize between 6.8 and 7.1 in 2026, with an overall upward trend but limited potential for sustained unilateral appreciation [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report lists the top-performing industries for January, March, and the past year, with notable performances in the oil and petrochemical sector (32.0% increase over the past year) and construction materials (42.7% increase) [1] - Conversely, the report identifies the worst-performing industries, including defense and military (-6.7% in January) and pharmaceuticals (-3.6% in January) [1] Group 3: Company Analysis - Huijia Times - Huijia Times is recognized for its competitive advantages, including a dense store network and deep local market insights, which contribute to significant scale effects and brand barriers in the Xinjiang region [6] - The company is actively upgrading its supermarket and shopping center formats and exploring innovative "low-altitude economy + consumption" scenarios, which are expected to open a second growth curve [6] - Revenue projections for Huijia Times from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.422 billion, 2.557 billion, and 2.782 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively [6]

证券之星消息，2月9日南向资金增持310.2万股中国石油化工股份（00386.HK）。近5个交易日中，获南 向资金减持的有3天，累计净减持2673.49万股。近20个交易日中，获南向资金增持的有14天，累计净增 持4.55亿股。截至目前，南向资金持有中国石油化工股份（00386.HK）75.99亿股，占公司已发行普通 股的31.94%。 中国石油化工股份有限公司是一家主要从事石油和天然气和化工经营业务的中国公司。该公司经营五个 分部。勘探及开发分部勘探和开发油田，生产并销售原油及天然气。炼油分部加工和提炼原油以及制造 和销售石油产品予该公司的化工、营销及分销分部和外界客户。营销及分销分部在中国拥有及经营油库 和加油站，并通过批发及零售网络分销和销售精炼的石油产品。化工分部制造及销售石化产品、衍生石 化产品及其他化工产品予外界客户。本部及其他分部主要包括进出口公司的贸易业务和其他子公司所进 行的研究及开发工作。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 策略周报 杠杆资金和外资流出额增加——2 月第 1 周立体投资策略周报 核心结论：①2 月第 1 周，资金入市合计净流出 499 亿元，前一周流出 1512 亿元。②短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中高位，长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来 中低位。③从行业角度看，以成交额占比为例，过去一周通信、国防军工、 半导体等热度较高。 2 月第 1 周，资金入市合计净流出 499 亿元，前一周流出 1512 亿元。资金 流入方面，融资余额减少 516 亿元，公募基金发行增加 269 亿元，ETF 净申 购 32 亿元，北上资金估算净流出 82 亿元；资金流出方面，IPO 融资规模 18 亿元，产业资本净减持 67 亿元，交易费用 118 亿元。 短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中高位。短期情绪指标主要看换手率和融资交 易占比，最近一周换手率（年化）为 497%，当前处在历史上由低到高 83%的 分位；最近一周融资交易占比为 9.21%，当前处在历史上由低到高 63%的分 位。 长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中低位。长期情绪指标主要看大类资产比价， 一看价格对比，最近一周 A 股风险溢 ...

盘后数据出炉。 沪深300今日主力资金净流入66.71亿元，创业板净流入125.74亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2026-2-9 | 66.71 | 125.74 | -21.49 | | 2026-2-6 | -72.87 | -141.98 | -10.61 | | 2026-2-5 | -141.86 | -198.14 | -0.62 | | 2026-2-4 | -144.23 | -257.76 | -12.22 | | 2026-2-3 | -18.21 | -3.48 | -44.87 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2026-2-9 | 4.77 | 5.70 | -4.57 | | 2026-2-6 | -20.66 | -44.54 | 1.21 | | 2026-2-5 | -12.92 | -17.42 | -2.00 | | 2026-2-4 | 9.36 | 14.02 | -4.14 | | 202 ...

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, the CSI 300 dropped by 1.33%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.28% during the week of February 2-6, 2026, amid significant volatility in global resource futures and earnings disclosures from major US tech companies [1][4] - A-shares experienced increased volatility, with a notable drop of 100 points on Monday, followed by a recovery on Tuesday, and a shift to a fluctuating market for the rest of the week, influenced by upstream resource stocks and internet giants [4][5] - The market's risk appetite was constrained, with an average daily trading volume of 24,032 billion, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [4] - The technology sector is becoming increasingly sensitive to negative news, with potential pressure on tech styles as positive factors may be realized following the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival [5] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market saw a flattening yield curve during the week, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 1.80 basis points to 1.32%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields fell to 1.81% and 2.25%, respectively [2][6] - The bond market is currently experiencing a strong oscillation, with some risk-averse funds flowing into bonds due to increased stock market volatility before the holiday [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has been actively injecting liquidity, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF in January, and the bond market is expected to remain stable without significant fluctuations in the short term [7] REITs Market Overview - The CSI REITs total return index fell by 0.91% to 1,042.84 points during the week, with most sectors declining, particularly consumption, data centers, and industrial parks [8] - Four new public REITs made progress in the primary market, indicating ongoing developments in the sector [8] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The monetary enhancement strategy index increased by 0.03% for the week, while the short-term bond fund index rose by 0.04% [11] - The mid-to-long-term bond fund index saw a gain of 0.09%, while the low-volatility fixed income plus fund index decreased by 0.04% [11] - The REITs fund index experienced a significant drop of 1.86%, reflecting the overall market trend [11] Investment Strategy Indices - The active stock fund selection index focuses on 15 funds with equal weight, emphasizing performance competitiveness and style stability [12] - The value stock fund selection index includes deep value and quality value styles, assessing companies based on absolute valuation levels and cash flow efficiency [14] - The growth stock fund selection index aims to capture high-growth opportunities, focusing on companies with significant future potential [17] Industry Theme Indices - The pharmaceutical stock fund selection index is constructed based on the intersection of fund holdings and representative indices, ensuring a minimum purity of 60% [19] - The consumer stock fund selection index targets funds with significant holdings in consumer-related sectors, maintaining a minimum purity of 50% [21] - The technology stock fund selection index is based on funds with substantial investments in technology sectors, also ensuring a minimum purity of 60% [24] Other Fixed Income Indices - The convertible bond fund selection index focuses on funds with a high proportion of convertible bonds, assessing performance and risk management [43] - The QDII bond fund selection index includes overseas bonds, prioritizing funds with stable returns and good risk control [44] - The REITs fund selection index emphasizes funds with stable cash flows from quality infrastructure projects [46]

Group 1 - The article highlights the rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the US and Iran, which could lead to significant impacts on global energy and chemical markets [2][4] - Iran's role as a major supplier of energy and chemical products is emphasized, with potential disruptions in supply and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz if conflicts escalate [2][4] - Recent market movements show a cautious sentiment, with significant inflows into oil and chemical futures, indicating investor interest despite geopolitical risks [2][4][6] Group 2 - The article notes that the "Middle East factor" has become a key driver of market capital flows, with oil prices showing a notable increase of approximately 10.89% since January due to geopolitical tensions [4] - Analysts predict that energy and chemical sectors will experience short-term volatility, particularly in response to developments in the US-Iran situation [4][5] - The chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in 2026, with supply pressures easing and valuations at historical lows, making it an attractive investment opportunity [5][8] Group 3 - Institutional investors are increasingly bullish on the domestic chemical sector, driven by expectations of improved supply conditions and the potential for short-term price surges due to geopolitical events [7][8] - Data indicates a significant number of chemical products have seen price increases, with notable gains in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, and other chemicals, reflecting a recovery trend in the basic chemical market [7] - The A-share market has shown resilience in the chemical sector, with substantial inflows into related stocks and indices, indicating strong investor confidence [6][8]

来源：环球网 在春节这一关键的保供"大考"前夕，中国石化销售上海石油分公司（以下简称"上海石油"）的"新春走 基层"活动，深入闵行油库的管线巡检一线与位于市中心的第十加能站，实地探访这座能源央企如何在 传统能源与新能源的双赛道上，保障城市运行的安全底记与绿色转型的活力。 地下"生命线"的守护者：日行万步丈量安全 位于上海西南的闵行油库始建于1968年，是保障上海市西南地区成品油市场供应的重要枢纽。而在油库 之外，全长约110公里的两条输油管道则如同隐秘的"大动脉"，将成品油源源不断地从上海石化输送至 此。 对闵行油库管道技术管理人员邓师傅和他的团队来说，春节并不意味着休息，而是"提级管理"的开 始。"管道埋在地下，地面上每隔约100米设有一个标志桩。我们的工作，就是确保这100多公里管廊不 仅在图纸上清晰，更在现实中无恙。"邓师傅介绍道。 据了解，为了满足日益增长的市场保供需求，设计年输量300万吨的新成品油管道已于2025年底投入试 生产，目前正处于首个迎峰度冬的关键期，巡检压力随之倍增。 "我们有9位专职徒步巡线员，加上车辆巡检作为补充。"邓师傅指着墙上的地图解释说，这支队伍无论 寒暑，每天都要在这条线路 ...

Market Overview - The A-share and stock index futures market are exhibiting distinct "pre-holiday characteristics" as the Spring Festival approaches, aligning with historical patterns of risk aversion and market sentiment contraction [1] - Trading volume has significantly shrunk, with the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropping to around 2.5 trillion yuan in February, down from 3 trillion yuan in January [1] - The market is experiencing a cautious sentiment, with traders preferring short-term speculative trades rather than long-term holdings, reflecting increased uncertainty [1] Trading Behavior - The last week before the holiday is expected to see a continued decline in average daily trading volume due to traders' inclination to secure profits and a lack of willingness for new capital to enter the market [2] - The margin financing scale has also decreased, indicating a decline in risk appetite and cautious trading sentiment ahead of the holiday [2] - The current margin financing balance accounts for only 2.62% of the A-share market's circulating market value, suggesting a healthy market structure [2] Industry Performance - In the first week of February, there was a notable divergence in industry performance, with food and beverage, beauty care, transportation, and banking sectors showing gains, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, electronics, and petrochemicals faced declines [3] - Defensive sectors such as food and beverage and banking are performing better, aligning with the trend of risk-averse capital seeking stable returns [3] - The market sentiment has shifted from previous exuberance to a more rational phase, with long-term investors focusing on valuation and earnings certainty [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The significant divergence in performance among stock index futures is attributed to the varying styles in the spot market, with the price spread between IC and IH narrowing after reaching a historical high [4] - The price spread is expected to continue contracting in February, aligning with the mean reversion logic of stock index futures [4] - Post-holiday, there is a strong likelihood of a "New Year rally," driven by the return of previously withdrawn funds and positive market sentiment [4]