Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Morning Report - Date: August 25, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report. Summary by Category Glass - **Price Changes**: From August 15 to August 22, 2025, most glass prices decreased. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass at Shahe Safety dropped from 1164.0 to 1143.0, a weekly decrease of 21.0 and a daily decrease of 6.0. FG09 and FG01 contracts also showed weekly decreases, with FG09 down 49.0 and FG01 down 38.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production - sales ratio was 76, Hubei's was 130, East China's was 97, and South China's was 103. Shahe factory's production - sales were average, with traders' low - price sales at around 1120 and general shipments. Hubei's factory had better transactions at around 980 [2]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 231.0 to 217.4, a weekly decrease of 13.7 and a daily decrease of 9.1. The cost increased slightly from 912.0 to 903.6. Natural gas - fired glass in North China and South China showed losses, and the losses of 09FG and 01FG盘面 natural gas profits also changed [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From August 15 to August 22, 2025, some soda ash prices decreased. For example, Shahe's heavy - soda ash price dropped from 1280.0 to 1220.0, a weekly decrease of 60.0 and a daily increase of 10.0. SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts all showed weekly decreases [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The heavy - soda ash spot price at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1190, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1220. Both factories and delivery warehouses had a slight inventory build - up [2]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China's ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 102.9 to - 156.7, a weekly decrease of 53.8 and a daily increase of 10.0. The North China's combined - soda process profit also decreased [2].

玻璃产销：沙河73，湖北134，华东100，华南97 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/8/14 | 2025/8/20 | 2025/8/21 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/8/14 | 2025/8/20 | 2025/8/21 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 | 1280.0 | 1210.0 | 1210.0 | -70.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1452.0 | 1364.0 | 1362.0 | -90.0 | -2.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1240.0 | 1220.0 | 1220.0 | -20.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1400.0 | 1309.0 | 1306.0 | -94.0 | -3.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1450.0 | 1450.0 | 1450.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1294.0 | 1209.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass - Supply remains flat, but there will be strong supply pressure in the future. The downstream deep - processing order days are still at a low level over the years. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, glass demand is expected to pick up month - on - month. Glass factory inventories have increased. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, with weak driving force for the futures market. Adopt a sideways trading approach, with the glass index operating range referring to 1100 - 1205. Key events to watch include glass production, glass factory inventories, and glass spot prices [4]. 纯碱 - Soda ash production has recovered to a high level, and demand is expected to decline under pressure. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the trend of inventory accumulation in soda ash plants is hard to reverse. Although the industry fundamentals are bearish, considering that it is the peak maintenance season, there are still disturbances on the supply side. It is advisable to wait and see for the time being. The operating range of the soda ash index refers to 1300 - 1450. Key events to watch include soda ash plant maintenance, soda ash plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Price - The mainstream market glass prices are running weakly [8]. Supply - The production of float glass was flat week - on - week, and there will be certain supply pressure in the future. Glass technical transformation may end before the peak season. Last week, the float glass production was 1.107 million tons (+0), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.34% (+0.15) [11][13]. Demand - As of July 31, the downstream deep - processing factory order days were 9.55 days (+0.25), and downstream demand was at a low level compared with the same period over the years. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, glass demand is expected to increase month - on - month. Last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 20.7615 million weight boxes (+0.769) [15][17]. Inventory - Speculative demand weakened, and futures - cash traders sold off, squeezing the production and sales of glass factories, resulting in an increase in glass factory inventories. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes (+1.579). The in - plant inventory in Hubei last week was 6.38 million weight boxes (+0.49) [19][21]. Cost and Profit - Last week, glass costs decreased, and profits declined. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1429 yuan/ton (-24); using coal - made gas as fuel was 1023 yuan/ton (-1); using petroleum coke as fuel was 1068 yuan/ton (-9) [29][31]. Basis and Spread - As of August 15, the glass 01 basis was - 171; the glass 05 basis was - 269; the glass 09 basis was - 6. The basis has a weak driving force for the futures market. The glass 9 - 1 contract spread was - 165; the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 98. There are currently no spread trading opportunities [41][45]. Soda Ash Price - The mainstream market prices of light and heavy soda ash are oscillating weakly [48]. Supply - Last week, soda ash production increased week - on - week and was at a high level, exerting certain downward pressure on the futures market. Last week, the soda ash production was 761,300 tons (+16,700), including 331,600 tons of light soda ash (+10,400) and 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash (+6,300) [52][54]. Demand - There are expectations of production cuts in photovoltaic glass, while float glass production is expected to rise. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily production of float and photovoltaic glass was 247,755 tons. The apparent demand for soda ash increased week - on - week, reaching 732,600 tons (+57,300) last week [56][59][61]. Inventory - Supply increased while demand declined, leading to an increase in soda ash plant inventories. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons (+28,700), including 760,000 tons of light soda ash inventory (+42,400) and 1.1338 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (-13,700) [64][66]. Cost and Profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased and profits declined. Currently, the cost support for the heavy soda ash combined - soda process in the East China region is around 1240 yuan/ton [71][72]. Basis, Spread and Soda - Glass Spread - As of August 15, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 112; the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 167; the soda ash 09 contract basis was - 10. The basis has a weak driving force, and it is advisable to wait and see. The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was - 102; the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55. There are currently no spread trading opportunities. The glass - soda ash 01 contract spread was - 184; the glass - soda ash 05 contract spread was - 141; the glass - soda ash 09 contract spread was - 247. It is advisable to wait and see for the glass - soda ash spread [79][83][88].

Group 1 - The float glass industry is entering a traditional peak season, which may lead to a temporary improvement in the supply-demand structure [1] - The average ex-factory price of domestic light soda ash is 1267.5 yuan/ton, down 2.9% from the end of July, while the average ex-factory price of float glass is 1209.38 yuan/ton, down 6.92% from the end of July [1] - Despite high inventory levels among float glass producers and intermediaries, improved orders from downstream processing plants are expected to support the sales rate of float glass manufacturers [1] Group 2 - The soda ash market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand imbalance, with the Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's second phase 2.8 million ton facility expected to start production in the second half of the year [2] - The operating load of the soda ash industry is expected to remain between 85%-89%, with a daily output of 10.7-11.2 thousand tons [2] - The demand for soda ash remains relatively stable, but poor profitability of downstream products limits support for the soda ash market, leading to expectations of a weak market in the short to medium term [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a morning report on glass and soda ash by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated August 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: Glass Market Price Changes - From August 13 to August 20, 2025, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1160.0 to 1164.0, while that from Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1147.0 to 1130.0 [2] - Among the futures contracts, FG09 decreased from 1061.0 to 997.0, and FG01 decreased from 1214.0 to 1162.0 [2] Basis and Spread - The FG 9 - 1 spread changed from - 153.0 to - 165.0, and the 09 Hebei basis changed from 82.0 to - 32.0 [2] Profitability - The North China coal - fired profit decreased from 237.0 to 228.5, and the 09FG盘面 natural gas profit decreased from - 312.2 to - 362.1 [2] Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio in Shahe was 85, in Hubei was 121, in East China was 92, and in South China was 96 [2] Group 3: Soda Ash Market Price Changes - From August 13 to August 20, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in different regions also had different trends. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1260.0 to 1210.0, while the price of South China heavy soda ash remained at 1450.0 [2] - Among the futures contracts, SA05 decreased from 1437.0 to 1364.0, SA01 decreased from 1383.0 to 1309.0, and SA09 decreased from 1276.0 to 1209.0 [2] Basis and Spread - The SA09 Shahe basis changed from - 16.0 to 1.0, and the SA month - difference 09 - 01 changed from - 107.0 to - 100.0 [2] Profitability - The North China ammonia - soda profit decreased from - 119.7 to - 166.7, and the North China combined - soda profit decreased from - 171.3 to - 167.9 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1180, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1210 [2]

Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with slight price adjustments in some regions for heavy soda ash [2] - As of August 20, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1370 CNY/ton [2] Price Index Analysis - On August 20, the light soda ash price index stood at 1217.14, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 8.57 to 1257.14, reflecting a decline of 0.68% [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1358 CNY/ton and closed at 1309 CNY/ton on August 20, marking a daily decline of 5.01% [5] - The market is under pressure due to high supply and accumulating inventory, with concerns over demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry [5] Future Market Predictions - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with increasing industry inventory [6] - Key factors to monitor include the resumption of production facilities, downstream replenishment activities, and fluctuations in futures market sentiment [6]

Report 1: Natural Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View The current natural rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short positions intertwined. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range, with the 01 contract's reference range at 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply increases smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai on August 19 was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 920 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or 11.41% [1]. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber on August 19 was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread on August 19 was - 995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.86% from the previous day [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 10.53% from the previous day [1]. - The 5 - 9 spread was 1080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 4.42% from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's natural rubber production was 392.6 thousand tons, up 120.4 thousand tons or 44.23% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 176.2 thousand tons, down 24.1 thousand tons or - 12.03% [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.00%, down 2.09 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - In July, domestic tire production was 9436.4 million pieces, down 838.5 million pieces or - 8.16% from the previous month. Tire export volume was 6665.0 million pieces, up 634.0 million pieces or 10.51% [1]. Inventory Change - As of August 19, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 619,852 tons, down 11,918 tons or 1.89% from the previous day [1]. - The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE (weekly) was 46,469 tons, up 4234 tons or 10.02% from the previous week [1]. Report 2: Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips, and buy put options to short at high prices when the volatility is low. Also, consider buying straddle options when the volatility is low [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type reclaimed materials on August 19 was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The N - type material basis (average price) was - 5260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [2]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract on August 19 was 52,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 215 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 59.26% from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production was 2.93 million tons, down 0.01 million tons or 0.34% from the previous week. Weekly silicon wafer production was 12.10 GM, up 0.08 GM or 0.67% [2]. - Monthly polysilicon production was 10.10 million tons, up 0.49 million tons or 5.10% from the previous month. Monthly polysilicon imports were 0.08 million tons, down 0.02 million tons or 16.90% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory was 24.20 million tons, up 0.90 million tons or 3.86% from the previous day. The silicon wafer inventory was 19.80 GM, up 0.69 GM or 3.61% [2]. Report 3: Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Last week, the industrial silicon price fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price falls to the low level of 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon on August 19 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The basis of East China SI4210 industrial silicon (based on SI4210) was 325 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 5.80% from the previous day [3]. Monthly Spread - The spread between the 2509 and 2510 contracts on August 19 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 50.00% from the previous day [3]. - The spread between the 2510 and 2511 contracts was 10 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 300.00% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - Monthly national industrial silicon production was 33.83 million tons, up 1.06 million tons or 3.23% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production was 15.03 million tons, down 2.70 million tons or 15.21% [3]. - The national industrial silicon operating rate was 52.61%, up 1.27 percentage points or 2.47% from the previous month [3]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) on August 19 was 11.70 million tons, up 0.01 million tons or 0.09% from the previous day [3]. - The social inventory (weekly) was 54.50 million tons, down 0.20 million tons or 0.37% from the previous day [3]. Report 4: Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View Soda Ash The soda ash futures market is weak. The fundamental situation is in obvious surplus, and the demand has no growth expectation. Short positions can continue to be held [4]. Glass The glass market is in a continuous weak operation. The market negative feedback continues, and the overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The long - term industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - Related Price and Spread - The North China glass quotation on August 19 was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The glass 2505 contract price was 1291 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day [4]. - The 05 basis was - 141 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 10.76% from the previous day [4]. Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread - The North China soda ash quotation on August 19 was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soda ash 2505 contract price was 1413 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 2.01% from the previous day [4]. - The 05 basis was - 63 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 31.52% from the previous day [4]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate on August 15 was 87.32%, up 2.24 percentage points from August 8. The weekly soda ash production was 76.13 million tons, up 1.7 million tons or 2.23% [4]. - The float glass daily melting volume was 15.96 million tons, unchanged from August 8 [4]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory on August 15 was 6342.60 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes or 2.55% from August 8 [4]. - The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory on August 15 was 189.38 million tons, up 2.9 million tons or 1.54% from August 8 [4]. Report 5: Log Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core View The log futures price is currently oscillating in a range. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the spot market is strong in the short - term. It is recommended to participate in buying on dips, focusing on the support level around 800 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Price - The log 2509 contract price on August 19 was 810.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The 9 - 11 spread was - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [5]. - The price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port on August 19 was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on August 19 was 7.183, up 0.001 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 818.77 yuan, up 0.15 yuan from the previous day [5]. Supply - The port shipping volume in July was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 2.7 million cubic meters or 1.51% from June [5]. - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 47.0, down 6.0 or 11.32% from the previous period [5]. Inventory - The main port inventory in China on August 15 was 306.00 million cubic meters, down 2.0 million cubic meters or 0.65% from August 8 [5]. - Shandong's inventory was 185.40 million cubic meters, down 7.2 million cubic meters or 3.74% from August 8 [5]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume in China on August 15 was 6.33 million cubic meters, down 0.09 million cubic meters or 1% from August 8 [5]. - Shandong's average daily outbound volume was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.05 million cubic meters or 1% from August 8 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and fluctuating trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain their current levels, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply pressure is not significant, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited, and the futures price may adjust slightly [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand for both may weaken marginally [7][8][9]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely [13][14]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices may follow macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to have a gradually rising price center, but their upward space may be limited [16][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Price and Inventory Data - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 15,137 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 1,199 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3416 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.08%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 880 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 17,753 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [2]. b. Fundamental Analysis - Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, with production basically flat compared to last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, with production basically flat compared to last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, and although the profit of steel mills is good and production remains high, the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore a. Price and Inventory Data - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the positions increased by 674 lots to 449,600 lots. The weighted positions were 863,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. b. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output increased. In the inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Price and Inventory Data - On August 19, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 3.05% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 3.44% at 5678 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 100 yuan/ton [7]. b. Fundamental Analysis - Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have dropped significantly. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has increased recently. The demand for both may weaken marginally in the future [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Price and Inventory Data - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8625 yuan/ton, up 0.23% (+ 20). The weighted contract positions decreased by 15,419 lots to 537,492 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,260 yuan/ton, down 0.04% (- 20). The weighted contract positions increased by 1889 lots to 323,092 lots [11][13]. b. Fundamental Analysis - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The demand in August can provide some support, but it is expected to fluctuate weakly. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [12][13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Price and Inventory Data - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1160 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, also unchanged. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, up 2.55% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1230 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, up 0.18% from last Thursday [16][17]. b. Fundamental Analysis - For glass, although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the long - term, it follows macro - sentiment. For soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [16][17].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Glass Soda Ash Morning Report [2] - Date Range: August 12 - 19, 2025 [3] Group 2: Glass Market Prices and Changes - For 5mm large - plate glass in different regions, prices had various changes from August 12 to 19, 2025. For example, in Wuhan Changli, it dropped from 1160.0 to 1100.0, a decrease of 60.0 [3]. - FG09 contract price decreased from 1073.0 to 1020.0, a drop of 53.0, and FG01 contract price decreased from 1240.0 to 1196.0, a decrease of 44.0 [3]. Production and Sales - On August 20, 2025, glass production - sales ratios were: 110 in Shahe, 100 in Hubei, 112 in East China, and 94 in South China [3]. Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired glass profit decreased from 238.6 to 228.8, a reduction of 9.8, and cost increased from 908.4 to 909.2, an increase of 0.8 [3]. Group 3: Soda Ash Market Prices and Changes - Soda ash prices also had different trends. For example, Shahe heavy - alkali price decreased from 1280.0 to 1240.0, a decrease of 40.0, while Huazhong heavy - alkali price remained at 1240.0 from August 12 to 19, 2025 [3]. - SA05 contract price decreased from 1462.0 to 1413.0, a drop of 49.0, SA01 contract price decreased from 1409.0 to 1358.0, a decrease of 51.0, and SA09 contract price decreased from 1292.0 to 1245.0, a decrease of 47.0 [3]. Industry Situation - On August 20, 2025, heavy - alkali spot price in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1220, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1240. Hubei downstream replenished stocks with a large quantity [3]. - Soda ash factory inventories continued to accumulate slightly [3]. Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - alkali profit decreased from - 96.6 to - 125.5, a reduction of 28.9, and North China combined - alkali profit decreased from - 154.7 to - 134.5, an increase of 20.2 [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term is expected to be mainly in a volatile trend. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2] - **Basis**: Hebei Shahe heavy - quality soda ash spot price is 1260 yuan/ton, SA2601 closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, basis is - 126 yuan, futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The peak summer maintenance period is coming, and production will decline [3] - **Negative**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1395 | 1280 | - 115 | | Current Value | 1386 | 1260 | - 126 | | Change Rate | - 0.65% | - 1.56% | 9.57% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe market is 1260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] 3.5 Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: North China ammonia - soda process profit is - 25.60 yuan/ton, East China co - production process profit is - 41 yuan/ton, and soda ash production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] - **开工率 and Production**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [21] 3.6 Demand in Fundamentals - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is stable [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Photovoltaic glass prices continue to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [33] 3.7 Inventory in Fundamentals National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37]