1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9% in August, and the decline in PPI year - on - year has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating that the previous production - limiting measures of upstream state - owned enterprises are taking effect, but the foundation for PPI recovery is not solid [7][8]. - For the pig sector, there is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term weakness is difficult to change, and the idea of large reverse arbitrage is maintained [10]. - For the soybean meal sector, it is in a rebound and oscillation state. The price is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the market is trading time for space [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Research 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The non - farm payrolls are revised downwards. The trend intensity is 1 [14][18]. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is rising. The trend intensity is 1 [14][18]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: The US dollar is under pressure, and the price rises. The trend intensity is 1 [14][22]. - Zinc: It is in range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][25]. - Lead: The inventory decreases, which supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][28]. - Tin: It is in range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][31]. - Aluminum: It runs strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Alumina: It is supported by cost. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Nickel: It runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][38]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the steel price may oscillate. The trend intensity is 0 [14][38]. 3.1.3 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of resumption of production. The trend intensity is - 1 [14][44]. 3.1.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The Inner Mongolia meeting increases news - based disturbances. The trend intensity is 0 [14][47]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [14][47]. 3.1.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][50]. - Rebar: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][52]. - Hot - rolled coil: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][53]. - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment disturbs, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment disturbs, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - Coke: Expectations are repeated, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][60]. - Coking coal: Expectations are repeated, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][61]. 3.1.6 Forest Products - Logs: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is not provided [14][63]. 3.1.7 Chemicals - p - Xylene: It rebounds in the short term, and the monthly spread is in a positive arbitrage. No trend intensity provided [14]. - PTA: The monthly spread is in a positive arbitrage. No trend intensity provided [14]. - MEG: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Rubber: It oscillates in a wide range. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Synthetic rubber: It oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Asphalt: Refineries resume production stably, and the shipment in the north slows down. No trend intensity provided [14]. - LLDPE: It has a medium - term oscillating market. No trend intensity provided [14]. - PP: It oscillates in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Caustic soda: It is not advisable to chase short. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Pulp: It oscillates strongly. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Methanol: It oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Urea: It oscillates weakly. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Styrene: It is strong in the short term and weak in the medium term. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Soda ash: There is little change in the spot market. No trend intensity provided [14]. 3.1.8 Energy - LPG: Geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the potential supply risk increases. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Propylene: The supply device fluctuates, and the spot trading price rises. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - PVC: It oscillates at a low level. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Fuel oil: It oscillates narrowly at night, showing a short - term adjustment trend. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weakness continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrows again. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. 3.1.9 Agricultural Products - Short - fiber: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Bottle chips: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Offset printing paper: It oscillates at a low level. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Pure benzene: It is strong in the short term and weakly oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Palm oil: The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it corrects in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean oil: The US soybean oil policy is uncertain, and there are limited themes for soybean oil. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans closed down overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean: It rebounds after over - decline. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Corn: It oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to Brazil's exports. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton listing. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Eggs: It oscillates in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Pigs: The spot is weak, and the policy is strong. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. No trend intensity provided [14][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The dismal US non - farm payroll data in August and the rising unemployment rate boosted the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but the market has already fully priced in the rate cut in September. Some hawkish officials maintain a cautious stance, believing that if the Fed's independence is threatened, the low - inflation environment in the US will be severely damaged, and the Fed may not conduct an unexpected rate cut this month. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources persists. Due to the new tax policy, the smelting profit of scrap copper may be limited, and the refined copper production in China will decline to some extent in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season in September and October, social inventory may fall, and the B - structure of the near - month contract has widened [2][7]. - Overall, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the interest rate cut expectation, but the market has already priced it in. Hawkish officials warn that if Trump overly interferes with the Fed's independence, the low - inflation environment in the US will be damaged. The market will remain relatively cautious before the Fed makes a decision. In addition, China's manufacturing sentiment has recovered, industrial output has resumed growth, the contraction of new export business has slowed down, and the anti - involution sentiment is still fermenting. The emerging industry sectors in the A - share market continue to rise. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources remains. Due to the new tax policy, the refined copper production in China will decline in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, refined copper will return to a tight - balance structure. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise after the short - term fluctuation [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - LME copper price on September 5 was $9865.00/ton, down $41.00 (- 0.41%) from August 29; COMEX copper price was 454.35 cents/pound, down 4.15 cents (- 0.91%); SHFE copper price was 80140.00 yuan/ton, up 730.00 yuan (0.92%); international copper price was 70470.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan (- 0.03%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.12, the LME spot premium/discount was - $68.04/ton, up $12.22 (- 15.23%), and the Shanghai spot premium/discount was 165 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [3]. - As of September 5, LME copper inventory was 157,950 tons, down 950 tons (- 0.60%); COMEX inventory was 305,345 short tons, up 27,502 short tons (9.90%); SHFE inventory was 81,833 tons, up 2,103 tons (2.64%); Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 80,200 tons, down 3,300 tons (- 3.95%). The total inventory was 625,328 tons, up 25,355 tons (4.23%) [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The dismal US non - farm payroll data in August and the rising unemployment rate boosted the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but the market has already fully priced it in. Some hawkish officials maintain a cautious stance. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources persists. The new tax policy may limit scrap - copper smelting profits, leading to a decline in domestic refined copper production in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, social inventory may fall, and the B - structure of the near - month contract has widened [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of September 5, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded - area rose to 625,000 tons. LME copper inventory was basically flat, the proportion of cancelled warrants remained at 10%; SHFE inventory increased slightly by 0.2 million tons; Shanghai bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.33 million tons. The LME inventory rebound trend has basically ended, the US copper inventory continued to rise, and the Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.12 due to the weak US dollar index last week [7]. - **Macro - situation**: In the US, the non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of full - time jobs decreased by 357,000, which is the second consecutive month of significant decline. The ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, far lower than expected. The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer spending has flattened or declined, and business investment willingness has decreased. Some Fed officials advocate interest rate cuts. In China, the S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, higher than the previous value of 49.5, and the new order index reached the highest since March. New export orders slightly decreased [8]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Globally, the supply of mining resources remains tight, and the domestic weekly spot TC remains at a relatively low level of - $40.8/ton. Some mines have production problems. In China, refined copper production in September may decline significantly due to the new scrap - copper tax policy. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects will accelerate, the operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises has rebounded, the new - energy vehicle market will enter the peak consumption season, and the domestic refined - copper market may face a tight - balance situation [9]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada's Teck Resources has suspended some major expansion projects and is working on solving the production problems of its flagship QuebradaBlanca (QB) copper mine in Chile. The review will end in October, and most of the subsequent work will focus on tailings facilities. Some approved projects will continue [12]. - SolGold has moved its tax registration to Switzerland and is promoting its flagship Cascabel copper - gold project into the development stage. It is considering adding a new listing location. The company aims to improve financial performance, increase shareholder value through tax optimization, and enhance investor appeal [13]. - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile will face a temporary production decline due to the failure of two ball - mill drive motors. The company will operate at half - capacity by bypassing the mill and may advance the maintenance work. It is estimated that copper - concentrate production will decrease by 3000 - 4000 tons during the four - week repair period, and an investigation into the root cause of the failure has been launched [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, copper spot premium/discount, SHFE copper inter - month spread, spot premium/discount and Yangshan copper premium, copper internal - external price ratio, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, SHFE - LME ratio excluding exchange rate, COMEX copper non - commercial net long position ratio, and LME copper investment fund net position change [16][21][25][31][37][41].

1. Report Summary - The weak employment data released by the US strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month, and the US dollar index weakened. The current macro - sentiment still follows the change of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the performance of this week's US non - farm payrolls data is the focus [5][11]. - The domestic manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved [5][13]. - The tightness in the copper mine end persists. The spot processing fee of domestic copper concentrates has declined continuously, and there is a large difference between holders and smelters on the processing fee. The estimated output of domestic electrolytic copper in August is 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. Domestic smelters' willingness to cut production is still not strong, which in turn supports the copper concentrate quotation [5]. - Copper inventory changes are not significant. The inventory of domestic electrolytic copper has not increased significantly. The Fed's interest - rate cut provides upward space for copper prices. The tight copper mine situation and the improvement of the macro - situation jointly support copper prices. The trading strategy is that copper prices may oscillate stronger, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 81,000 mark above [5]. 2. Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is heating up [8]. - The spot processing fee continues to decline, and the tightness at the mine end still exists [8]. - The spot continues to maintain a premium [8]. Bearish Factors - Social inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The output of electrolytic copper continues to remain at a high level [8]. 3. Data Analysis International Economic Data - The US 7 - month core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The August ISM manufacturing index rose slightly from 48 to 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and has been below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. The number of job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity in most parts of the US has changed little recently, with price increases and little change in overall employment levels. Fed Governor Waller said that interest - rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months [11]. - The ADP employment data in August showed an increase of 54,000 people, lower than expected. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 30 was 237,000, higher than expected. The cooling of the US labor market has strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 97.4% [11]. Domestic Manufacturing Data - The domestic manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point [13]. Copper - Related Data - **Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports**: In July, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supplies from Chile and Peru both rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of over 10%. Chile's copper output in July was 445,214 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase of 5% and a limited year - on - year increase. However, in late July, a collapse accident occurred in a new mining area of the world's largest underground copper mine of Codelco, and Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production guidance in August [16]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee**: As of the week of August 29, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 41.2 US dollars per dry ton, down 2.59 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The spot processing fee of domestic copper concentrates has declined continuously, and the tightness at the mine end will continue to trouble the copper market [20]. - **Refined Copper Production and Imports**: In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Affected by the shortage of cold material supply, some smelters started to cut production slightly. In August, the number of smelters cutting production due to the shortage of copper concentrates and cold materials increased compared with July. In July, China's refined copper imports were 336,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import loss narrowed in July, and imports remained at a relatively high level within the year [25]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. The supplies from Asian countries such as Japan, Thailand, and South Korea increased significantly. The main driving factor for the increase in scrap copper imports was strong domestic demand [28]. - **Copper Scrap - Refined Spread**: As of September 4, the copper scrap - refined spread was around - 305 yuan per ton, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [32]. - **Copper Inventory**: LME copper inventory rebounded last week to a three - month high of 158,575 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly in the week of August 29, with a weekly decrease of 2.39% to 79,748 tons. COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate to a new high since January 2004. On September 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,100 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the 1st [50]. - **Copper Premium**: On September 4, the premium of Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot was around 135 yuan per ton, and the premium range narrowed. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 66.89 US dollars per ton, and the discount range narrowed [54]. 4. Future Outlook - Copper prices may oscillate stronger, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 81,000 mark above [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Core View of the Report - In September, there are relatively large disturbances on the supply side, such as a decrease in the circulation of scrap copper and a concentrated period of smelter maintenance. Although the downstream performance is not outstanding, the support from the power grid for demand still exists. Coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong in September [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On September 4, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 80,000 yuan/ton and closed at 79,770 yuan/ton, a -0.42% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 79,680 yuan/ton and closed at 79,650 yuan/ton, a 0.13% increase from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: The spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 60 - 300 yuan/ton, with an average of 180 yuan/ton, a 10 yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price was 79,950 - 80,430 yuan/ton. The import loss was maintained at 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the BACK structure continued. The market procurement sentiment was weak, but the concentrated arrival of imports boosted the sales sentiment. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper dropped to 80 yuan/ton, and the price in Jiangsu was pressured to 20 - 40 yuan/ton. Low - priced goods such as African and Kazakh copper had good transactions. It is expected that the stocking demand on Friday may support the premium with limited decline [2] - **Important Information Summary**: US economic data showed weak employment but strong service industry expansion. Weak employment data significantly increased the marginal expectation of interest rate cuts, with a 99.4% expectation of a September rate cut according to Fedwatch [3] Supply - Side Information - **Mine End**: Freeport - McMoRan is promoting three expansion projects and researching a technology innovation. It plans to invest $3.5 billion to expand the Baghdad copper mine in Arizona, with a possible investment decision by the end of 2025 and expected production in 2029. It may increase the capacity of the Lone Star copper mine in Arizona and the El Abra mine in Chile. The El Abra expansion plan involves a $7.5 billion investment with a target production time of 2033. The company hopes to extract an additional 800 million pounds (about 363,000 tons) of copper per year by 2030 through a "low - cost copper extraction technology" and is researching a "new additive" to improve copper recovery. The company also calls on the US government to increase incentives for domestic copper producers and shorten project approval time [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In September, China's refined copper market has a rare supply contraction. Multiple research institutions predict a 4% - 5% month - on - month decline in production, the first such decline in September since 2016. The reasons are the new tax policy reducing scrap copper processing profits and the peak of smelter equipment maintenance. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to drop by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9% [5] Demand - Side Information - **Consumption**: At the end of the month, downstream cable enterprises face increased capital pressure, high copper prices suppress orders, and the demand for enameled wires is weak. The raw material inventory decreased by 3.25% to 3.27 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.87% to 6.8 tons. It is expected that demand will pick up next week, and the substitution effect of refined copper rods may increase. In the wire and cable industry, high copper prices at the beginning of the week suppressed order release, and most enterprises focused on completing existing orders, with only a few making advance purchases due to bullish expectations. The power grid demand provides support, while other industries are still in the off - season [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 158,375 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 358 tons to 19,829 tons. On September 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 140,600 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [6] Price and Related Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot (Premium/Discount)** | SMM: 1 copper, today's premium is 180 (compared to 190 yesterday, 205 last week, 180 one month ago); premium copper 285; flat - water copper 75; wet - process copper - 20; Yangshan premium 60 [26] | | **LME (0 - 3)** | - 67 (compared to - 70 yesterday, - 90 last week, - 49 one month ago) [26] | | **Inventory** | LME: 158,375 tons; SHFE: 79,748 tons; COMEX: 258,003 tons [27] | | **Warehouse Receipts** | SHFE warehouse receipts: 19,829 tons; LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio: 8.53% [27] | | **Arbitrage** | CU11 - CU09 (continuous three - near - month): - 120; CU10 - CU09: - 30; CU09/AL09: 3.87; CU09/ZN09: 3.61 [27] | | **Import Profit** | - 48 (compared to - 53 yesterday, 331 last week, - 149 one month ago) [28] | | **Shanghai - London Ratio (Main Contract)** | 8.03 (compared to 7.96 yesterday, 8.10 last week, 8.14 one month ago) [28] |

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Domestic and Overseas Economy**: Domestically, pro - service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are being promoted, but their effects need further observation. Industrial profit repair takes time. Overseas, the US economy shows "soft landing" features, and employment data strengthens the market's Fed rate - cut expectation. Attention should be paid to non - farm employment and unemployment data. Also, the high prices of long - term bonds in the UK, Germany, and France may lead to speculation about a global credit "crisis" [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The core of the current RMB - US dollar exchange rate is the rhythm control. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. After a strong employment report followed by a weak QCEW correction notice, market dovish sentiment may increase. The non - farm data is crucial. The RMB - US dollar spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair to a reasonable equilibrium, with attention on market sentiment around 7.13 [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to adjust in the short term, with limited downside space [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock. It is not advisable to chase high, and previous long positions should stop profit [7]. - **Container Shipping**: The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and mainstream shipping companies' Golden Week blank - sailing plans. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [12]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips. Alumina is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to sell call options. Cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [14]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options or double - selling can be considered [16]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are expected to be in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term. Trading strategies such as selling the outer market and buying the inner market or selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are expected to be in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [21]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to be slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. It is recommended to observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [24]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state, and caution is needed in operation [26][27]. - **Commodities - Black Metals**: - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure. However, there are expectations for peak - season demand, and the market may be in a short - term shock - adjustment state. Attention should be paid to actual peak - season demand and macro policies [29]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are currently strong but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the lifting of the military - parade production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. There may be room for the coke price to fall in the short term. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure, but short - term over - supply is not serious. Attention should be paid to pre - National - Day replenishment and peak - season demand verification [33]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state. It is recommended to go long on the spread between the two when the spread is - 400 for the 01 contract [34][36]. - **Commodities - Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase is high, which will affect oil prices next week. Geopolitical risks are short - term interference factors. The oil market may face downward risks after the market sentiment subsides [38]. - LPG: LPG is expected to maintain a volatile state, affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand [40]. - PTA - PX: The PX - TA market is mainly affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end. It is recommended to shrink the PTA01 processing fee when it is above 350 [43]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment. It is recommended to build long positions on dips or sell the 4,250 put option for the 10 - contract [47]. - Methanol: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [48]. - PP: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high growth [51]. - PE: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the driving force from demand is not strong. It is expected to be in a volatile state [53]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak. Pure benzene is expected to be weak and volatile, and for styrene, it is not recommended to short - sell unilaterally. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider buying at a low price [55][56]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations, and the downward driving force remains [57]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news. Its valuation is low, and it is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [59]. - Asphalt: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost. In the medium - to - long - term, demand may improve with the arrival of the construction season, but there are still rainfall disturbances [61]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and hold positive spreads for RU9 - 1 [65]. - Urea: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,650 - 1,850. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with stable demand and high upstream and mid - stream inventories [68]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: US ISM service PMI expands at the fastest pace in half a year, but employment is weak, and prices remain high. The trade deficit widens, and the Fed rate - cut expectation is strengthened [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB - US dollar exchange rate rises. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. Attention should be paid to non - farm data [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index falls with increased volume, and it is expected to adjust in the short term with limited downside space [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock [7]. Container Shipping - The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and shipping companies' blank - sailing plans [8][10]. Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price falls slightly but may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum is volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is weak and volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [13][14]. - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term [18][19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [19][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. Observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state [25][27]. Commodities - Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel mills resume production after the military parade. The market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure but also supported by peak - season demand expectations [28][29]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are strong, but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [30][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the coke supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure [31][33]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state [34]. Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase expectations and US crude oil inventory accumulation lead to a decline in oil prices. The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase affects future prices [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand, and is expected to maintain a volatile state [39][40]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - TA market is affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end [41][43]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol oscillates between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment [44][47]. - **Methanol**: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments [48]. - **PP**: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain, depending on downstream demand growth [50][51]. - **PE**: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand driving force is not strong [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news, with low valuation [59]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost, and demand may improve in the medium - to - long - term [60][61]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity [62][65]. - **Urea**: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [68].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 03 日 铜：市场情绪回暖，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,660 | -0.15% | 80410 | 0.94% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,014 | 1.40% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 61,677 | -16,804 | 180,065 | -579 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 26,784 | 16,271 | 278,000 | 8,630 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 19,501 | -699 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 158,775 | -100 | 8.23% | -0.06% | | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The proxy position at the general meeting is more than 97% in favor of the poll, with 83.11% of the register having voted [11][15]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - No specific business line data or key metrics were discussed in the meeting [6]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - No specific market data or key metrics were discussed in the meeting [6]. Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focused on ensuring strong shareholder engagement and participation in meetings, with efforts made to accommodate shareholders across different time zones [16]. - The company has been set up and run as a global business, listed on both the Australian Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange, indicating a broad market presence [16]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a high turnout of total shareholders voting and an overwhelmingly favorable vote for the transaction, despite some press coverage suggesting discontent among shareholders [13]. - The CEO emphasized that there has been strong engagement with shareholders, and the company is comfortable with the level of participation and support for the scheme [16]. Other Important Information - The meeting included a discussion on the voting process and the importance of shareholder participation, with a proxy solicitation firm engaged to encourage voting [15]. - The company plans to comply with all regulations regarding the disclosure of voting outcomes [17]. Q&A Session Summary Question: How many shareholders attended the meeting? - There were seven shareholders in attendance at the meeting in Jersey [9]. Question: Has there been any protest votes regarding the takeover price? - The proxy position is more than 97% in favor, indicating no significant protest votes [11][13]. Question: Will the company publish a full copy of the webcast for shareholders? - The company does not consider this issue material and will not publish the webcast [14]. Question: Why was the meeting scheduled late on a Friday night? - The timing was designed to accommodate shareholders in North America, Australia, and Europe, ensuring participation from all regions [16]. Question: Will headcount numbers be included in the voting outcome disclosure? - The company assured compliance with ASX and NYSE regulations regarding the publication of voting results [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Currently, copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price cannot continue to rebound. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. However, due to the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices remain in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 78,820 yuan/ton and closed at 78,930 yuan/ton, a - 0.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main SHFE copper contract opened at 78,920 yuan/ton and closed at 78,990 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 130 - 280 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, with an average of 205 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The electrolytic copper price was 79,080 - 79,300 yuan/ton. Near the end of the month and weekend, the spot premium is expected to remain stable [2] Important Information Summary - Economic data: The annualized revised value of the US Q2 real GDP increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised value of the Q2 core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [3] - Employment market: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, with an expected 230,000 and the previous value revised from 235,000 to 234,000 [3] - Interest rates: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [3] - Tariffs: The European Commission proposed to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products on Thursday, part of a trade agreement with the US [3] Mine End - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted the operation of its Snow Lake copper - gold mine in Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. It is expected to resume full - load production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025 [4] Smelting and Import - The ICSG stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined increase in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [5] Consumption - In July, the operation of China's copper strip processing industry continued to decline. The 29 sample enterprises produced 141,800 tons of copper strips, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.1% year - on - year increase. The average capacity utilization rate was 83.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,100 tons to 157,950 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 55 tons to 21,232 tons. On August 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 127,100 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, recommend buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Data Tables - The table shows copper price and basis data, including spot premiums, warehouse receipts, inventory, and arbitrage - related data from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025 [27][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price cannot continue to rebound. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. However, due to the rising market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price still shows a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 27, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 79,190 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,820 yuan/ton and closed at 78,850 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,420 - 79,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 - 260 yuan/ton over the current 2509 contract, and an average premium of 170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market trading sentiment was weak, and the spot premium was expected to remain in a stalemate [2] Important Information Summary - **Overseas Macro**: New York Fed President Williams said it was appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, strengthening the market's expectation of future easing. US Treasury Secretary Besent said there were 11 "very strong" candidates for Fed Chair, and the selection would be announced this fall. The Trump administration was studying plans to exert more influence on the 12 regional Fed banks [3] - **Mine End**: First Quantum Minerals Ltd. shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in Zambian copper mines due to a $1 billion gold deal that eased balance - sheet pressure [3] - **Smelting and Import**: PT Freeport Indonesia expected to complete the maintenance of its joint - venture smelter in East Java in early September. The Gresik smelter, a joint venture with Mitsubishi Materials, had been under maintenance for a month and consumed about 40% of the copper concentrate output from the Grasberg mine, with an annual cathode copper production capacity of 342,000 tons [4] - **Consumption**: In July, China's copper strip processing industry continued to decline. The consumption demand at the terminal decreased, orders shrank, and the capacity utilization rate continued to decline. Among 29 sample enterprises, the total copper strip output was 141,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The average capacity utilization rate was 83.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 975 tons to 156,100 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,630 tons to 21,287 tons. On August 27, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,000 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] - **Arbitrage**: Put on hold [7] - **Options**: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Data Table The report provides data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and the Shanghai - London ratio from August 21, 2025, to August 28, 2025, covering multiple aspects such as SMM 1 copper, premium copper, flat - water copper, and more [25][26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in its lithium business, despite facing challenges in its copper operations [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.292 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.41% [3]. - Total operating revenue reached 167.711 billion yuan, marking an 11.50% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The overall gross margin for mineral products increased by 3 percentage points to 60.23%, attributed to rising prices and cost optimization [3]. Group 2: Lithium Business - Zijin Mining's lithium production saw a remarkable increase, with carbonate lithium output reaching 7,315 tons, a staggering growth of 2,961% year-on-year [1]. - The significant growth in lithium production was primarily due to the inclusion of Zangge Mining in the consolidated financial statements, which contributed 5,170 tons from the Qarhan Salt Lake [1]. - The company plans to proceed with its lithium projects cautiously, focusing on cost management, with the first phase of the lithium salt lake project in Argentina expected to commence production in September 2025 [4]. Group 3: Copper Business Challenges - The company faced setbacks in its copper operations, particularly at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where multiple seismic events led to flooding and halted mining activities [3]. - As a result of these challenges, the annual copper production forecast was revised down from 520,000-580,000 tons to 370,000-420,000 tons [3]. - The company is currently focused on dewatering efforts to restore production, which is expected to take considerable time [3]. Group 4: Gold Business Strategy - Zijin Mining plans to spin off its major gold assets, which include eight world-class gold mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania, reflecting its confidence in increasing gold investments [4]. - The company aims to achieve a gold production target of 100-110 tons by 2028, which is strategically significant for its growth [4].