1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - Overall, the Sino-US economic and trade meeting achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus, and the two sides will issue a joint statement soon. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance and delays interest rate cuts, and the unexpected recovery of the eurozone economy will continue to be loose. Domestically, the central bank has launched a package of financial incremental policy combinations to stabilize market confidence. Fundamentally, the medium-term tightening pattern of concentrates remains unchanged, the supply of imported refined copper in China is tight, the premium of Yangshan warehouse receipts is high, and social inventories continue to decline. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile at a high level, waiting for the details of the Sino-US trade negotiations to be disclosed [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - LME copper rose from $9,125.50/ton on April 30 to $9,439.00/ton on May 9, an increase of $313.50 or 3.44% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 461 cents/pound on April 30 to 465.4 cents/pound on May 9, an increase of 4.4 cents or 0.95% [4]. - SHFE copper rose from 77,220 yuan/ton on April 30 to 77,450 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 230 yuan or 0.30% [4]. - International copper rose from 68,470 yuan/ton on April 30 to 68,750 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 280 yuan or 0.41% [4]. - The Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.21 [4]. - The LME spot premium changed from -$6.80/ton on April 30 to $49.19/ton on May 9, an increase of $55.99 or -823.38% [4]. - The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to 80 yuan/ton on May 9, a decrease of 150 yuan [4]. - LME inventory decreased from 200,150 tons on April 30 to 191,775 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,375 tons or 4.18% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 144,023 short tons on April 30 to 160,250 short tons on May 9, an increase of 16,227 short tons or 11.27% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 89,289 tons on April 30 to 80,687 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,602 tons or 9.63% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 93,500 tons on April 30 to 90,500 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,000 tons or 3.21% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 526,962 tons on April 30 to 523,212 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,750 tons or 0.71% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices fluctuated at a high level last week. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - As of May 9, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 523,000 tons, and the global inventory decreased slightly. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME 0 - 3 shifted to a B structure, with the proportion of cancelled warrants continuing to rise to 43.1%. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 8,000 tons, showing obvious characteristics of the consumption peak season. Bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons. Last week, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium rose to $110, reaching a two-year high. The COMEX US copper premium narrowed to $600 - 800/ton, but overseas deliverable supplies continued to flow into North America, causing the COMEX visible inventory to rise to 160,000 tons at a high level. The Shanghai-London ratio decreased to 8.21 mainly due to the recent significant appreciation of the RMB [8]. - Sino-US economic and trade high-level meetings are imminent. The global trade situation is gradually easing and moving in a favorable direction. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in its May meeting, and Powell said that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. Domestically, the central bank cut the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1% to 1.4% in early May, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5%, and is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term liquidity into the market. The central bank also announced a series of other financial policies to boost the confidence of China's capital market [10]. - This week, the spot TC widened to -$43/ton. The global mine end's medium-term tightening pattern remains unchanged. In terms of refined copper, China's refined copper output in April was 1.126 million tons, continuing to rise month-on-month, but the imported supplies were scarce in early May. From the demand side, power grid investment projects have started one after another, and the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%. The new energy vehicle production and sales growth rate exceeded 40%, and the traditional industry showed peak season characteristics. The domestic social inventory continued to decline significantly to around 12 tons, and the near-month contract on the disk maintained a large B structure [11]. 3.3 Industry News - First Quantum's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 99,700 tons, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Its 2025 copper guidance production is 380,000 - 440,000 tons (excluding the resumption of production of the Panama copper mine). The Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,500 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%. The Kansanshi smelter plans to carry out a six-week maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025. The SENTINEL copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,400 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The mine plans to carry out a four-day comprehensive maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025 [13]. - Teck Resources' copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 106,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.1%. The Highland Valley project in Canada had a copper production of 29,500 tons in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4%. The QBII project in Chile had a copper production of 42,000 tons in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.1%. The production in this quarter was affected by an 18-day shutdown in January and a power outage in late February [14]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 500 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. After the holiday, the downstream replenishment willingness slowed down after the high-level fluctuation of copper prices, and the terminal orders were mainly for rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the operation of China's refined copper rod enterprises will continue to recover in mid-May [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][20].

Market Review - The copper futures in Shanghai experienced a rise followed by a decline, closing below the 60-day moving average [1] Fundamental Summary - Codelco's copper production in March increased by 14.8% year-on-year, reaching 123,200 tons, indicating an enhancement in copper market supply capacity [2] - In the first four months, China imported 1.742 million tons of unrefined copper and copper materials, a decrease of 3.9%, with an average price of 69,000 yuan per ton, up by 8.5% [2] - As of May 8, total copper inventory in Shanghai was 12,522 tons, down by 902 tons from the previous day; Guangdong's inventory was 5,949 tons, down by 99 tons; Jiangsu's inventory was 1,069 tons, down by 1,000 tons; and Zhejiang's inventory remained unchanged at 0 tons, totaling 19,540 tons, a decrease of 2,001 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that the macro environment improved with the agreement on tariff trade terms between the UK and the US, leading to increased market risk appetite and a rise in US stock markets. The tight supply of copper ore and scrap remains unchanged, with domestic inventory showing a significant reduction [3] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the continuous decline in LME and Shanghai copper inventories, alongside an increase in COMEX copper inventories, indicates a reshaping of the copper trade landscape. Domestic supply tightness supports copper prices, with a positive demand trend expected due to investments in power equipment and data centers [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, boosting market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and various economic data [2]. - The prices of most commodities showed different trends of fluctuations. Precious metals prices continued to adjust, copper prices were strongly volatile, aluminum prices were weakly volatile, and the prices of other commodities also changed according to their respective fundamentals [3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, with the US retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel - aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. Trump encouraged stock - buying, leading to a rebound in US stocks and cryptocurrencies, the US dollar index stabilizing above 100, the US bond yield rising to 4.37%, and the gold price falling by over 1%. Oil and copper prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced trading volume, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to 1.32 trillion. The ChiNext and small - cap stocks performed well, and sectors such as military and optical modules led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the decline since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. In the bond market, after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the money market became looser, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Attention should be paid to April's foreign trade, financial, and price data [2]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.40% to $3310 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures edged down 0.57% to $32.6 per ounce. The trade agreement between the US and the UK reduced the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. If the Sino - US trade talks reach an agreement, the gold price may face further downward pressure [3]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper soared overnight. The spot market trading was light, and the LME inventory decreased to 194,000 tons. The first - quarter copper production of First Quantum decreased by 10.7% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum closed at 19,510 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. LME aluminum rose 0.17%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 9,000 tons. The market sentiment was relieved by the US - UK trade agreement. The aluminum price is expected to remain weakly volatile due to consumption concerns [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract rose 3.25% to 2794 yuan per ton. Negative news about new capacity led to a small rebound in alumina prices, but the sustainability and height of the rebound are expected to be limited [9]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, and LME zinc closed up. Recently, imported zinc ingots have flowed in, and with the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the zinc price is under pressure, and short positions can be held against the 10 - day moving average [10][11]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead fluctuated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow - range fluctuation. The social inventory increased. Some lead smelters plan to conduct maintenance, and the supply reduction provides support. The lead price is expected to move sideways in the short term [12][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin first rose and then declined, and LME tin had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve slightly, and the consumption is stable. The tin price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon main contract trended downwards. The supply side has limited expansion power, and the demand side is weak. The social inventory remains at 600,000 tons, and the industrial silicon price is expected to continue to decline in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated widely, and the spot price fell. The short - selling sentiment subsided after the price failed to break through. The downstream purchasing is weak, and the basis correction risk has materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - level still has tariff risks, and the downstream replenishment willingness is weak after the holiday. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil trended strongly. The false news of Kazakhstan's production cut and geopolitical conflicts co - existed. The long - term downward pressure on oil prices comes from OPEC +'s continuous large - scale production increase. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures declined. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The steel price is expected to weaken due to weak supply and demand [22][23]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Downstream steel mills cut production, and the supply is relatively loose. The iron ore price is expected to trend weakly [24]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract declined. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the soybean harvest forecast. The double - meal prices are expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 09 contract declined. The BIMP - EAGA Commercial Committee plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil. The palm oil price is expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [26][27].

全球顶级黄金生产商之一的巴里克黄金（Barrick Mining）第一季度业绩超预期，主要归功于黄金价格的强劲上涨。 公司调整后净利润同比增长81.08%，黄金产量同比减少19.36%。当季平均实现的黄金价格为每盎司2898美元，较上年同期上涨40%。公司维持全年黄金 和铜产量指引，并积极推进Reko Diq和Lumwana等关键增长项目。 | | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial Results ($ millions) | | | | | Net earnings9 | 474 | 996 | 295 | | Adjusted net earnings3 | 603 | 794 | 333 | | Attributable EBITDA10 | 1,361 | 1,697 | 907 | | Net cash provided by operating activities | 1,212 | 1,392 | 760 | | Free cash flow4 | 375 | 501 | 32 | | Net ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of copper is firm, which supports the copper price. The copper market shows certain price fluctuations and supply - demand characteristics, and is also affected by macro and micro news [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 77,600 with a daily increase of 0.49%, and the night - session closing price was 78,320 with a night - session increase of 0.93%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,520 with a daily increase of 4.32% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 83,514, a decrease of 6,040 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,625, an increase of 4,071. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,860, an increase of 69, and the open interest was 289,000, an increase of 584 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 24,922, a decrease of 3,244 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 195,625, a decrease of 1,675. The LME Copper注销仓单比 was 44.45%, a decrease of 0.45% [1]. - **Spreads**: There were various changes in different spreads, such as the LME copper ascension and premium, the spot - to - futures near - month spread, etc. For example, the spot - to - futures near - month spread increased by 55 to 285 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The EU plans to expand counter - measures and may impose tariffs on 100 billion euros of US goods if negotiations fail. The Fed may delay interest rate cuts due to concerns about inflation. China's Caixin Services PMI in April was 50.7 with a slowdown in new order growth [1]. - **Micro News**: Peru's Antamina Mining Company shut down its mine due to a safety accident. The 2025 - 2026 global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus, with 289,000 tons in 2025 and 209,000 tons in 2026. In the first quarter of this year, Codelco's output was 296,000 tons, a 0.3% increase year - on - year. Chile's copper output in March was 477,049 tons, a 9.1% increase year - on - year, and Zambia's copper output in the first quarter increased by 30% to about 224,000 tons [1][3]. 3.3 Industry Data - From January to March 2025, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved an operating income of 2,135.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.5%; the operating cost was 2,015.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%; and the total profit was 65.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 33.6% [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive trend [3].

智利国家铜业公司董事长Maximo Pacheco表示，4月该公司铜产量比去年同期增长了22%，预计产量为 10.5万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided document does not contain information on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The tariff shock has eased, and copper prices have returned to fundamentals. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the copper market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing and domestic export orders somewhat restricted. - The current copper consumption shows a structurally differentiated characteristic, with the growth of emerging sectors' demand contrasting sharply with the weakness of traditional real estate. - The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons [101][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Copper Market Overview - **Price Fluctuations**: On April 2, due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, copper prices plummeted. The price dropped from $9,721/ton on April 2 to $8,105/ton on April 7, a decline of 16.6%. After Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, prices rebounded. By April 25, LME copper prices reached a maximum of $9,481.5/ton, and domestic prices reached 78,520 yuan/ton, almost recovering all the losses caused by the tariff increase [3][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, with processing fees dropping to - $42/ton. However, smelters have no plans to cut production. The proportion of scrap - copper - produced blister copper has increased to around 20%. Global consumption has advanced due to Trump's tariff policy. In May, overall consumption is expected to be high at the beginning and low at the end, with inventory likely to continue to decline slightly, and the spot premium remaining firm [4][14]. II. Market Section 1. Market Review - **Price and Inventory**: In April, due to the tariff policy, copper prices first fell and then rebounded. Domestic buying was strong, and the spot premium rose. In April 2025, global visible inventory decreased by 119,900 tons compared to March, reaching 604,000 tons. Chinese social inventory decreased by 155,500 tons, reaching 181,700 tons, while bonded - area inventory increased by 6,200 tons to 85,100 tons [11][12]. - **Consumption Drivers**: The significant increase in consumption in April was due to suppressed downstream procurement demand in March, increased procurement and inventory - building demand after the price drop, and unaffected export orders. Terminal consumption showed structural differentiation, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while traditional real estate was weak [12]. 2. Market Outlook - **Macro Factors**: During the May Day holiday, the release of important economic data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and the euro - zone manufacturing PMI may have a significant impact on copper prices. Trump's tariff policy remains unclear and may still impact the market [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and processing fees are expected to continue to decline. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing. The situation of the import window depends on domestic consumption in May and June [14]. - **Price Forecast**: If re - export orders can still be issued, copper prices will continue to consolidate, mainly in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. If re - export orders are completely prohibited, prices will return to 73,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the overall center of copper prices will move down, but the decline may not be smooth before the US tariff policy is clear [5][15]. III. Copper Mine Production is Downgraded, and Copper Supply Growth is Flat with 2024 1. Global Copper Mine Production - **Production Forecast**: After the release of major companies' 2024 annual reports, the market has significantly downgraded the expected copper concentrate production for 2025. The expected copper mine supply increment in 2025 has been reduced from 500,000 tons to 200,000 tons, and the growth rate has dropped from 2.2% to 0.88% [20]. - **Company - Specific Production**: Different mining companies have different production trends in 2024 and 2025. For example, Anglo American's production decreased in 2024 and is expected to further decline in 2025, while MMG's production increased in 2024 and is expected to continue to rise in 2025 [21][24]. 2. Global Refined Copper Production - **Supply and Demand Balance**: In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 61,000 tons. The first two months of this year had a supply surplus of 150,000 tons, similar to the same period last year [45]. - **Processing Fees and Production**: The long - term copper concentrate processing fee for 2025 between overseas mines and Chinese smelters is at a record low. As of April 25, the import processing fee has dropped to - $42.52/ton. Despite losses, smelters generally have no plans to cut production [45][47]. - **Waste Copper Supply**: Waste copper has become a key supplement to raw materials. From January to February 2025, the supply of domestic waste copper increased by 226,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.79%. In March, China imported 189,700 tons of waste copper, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [47]. IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption - **US Consumption**: The US is in the stage of rush - to - import, and the replenishment cycle may last until July. Due to tariff disturbances, US consumption has advanced, but consumer confidence is declining, and consumption may decline more rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends [63]. - **European Consumption**: After continuous interest rate cuts, the euro - zone manufacturing PMI rebounded in April, but the comprehensive PMI and service PMI declined. Consumer confidence is also low, and consumption expenditure is restricted [64]. - **Emerging Economies**: Emerging economies are in a 90 - day rush - to - export stage. Countries with high tariff - levying ratios will experience an export consumption boom during this period, but the situation after July depends on US tariff policies [64]. 2. Domestic Consumption - **Real Estate**: From January to March 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing and the completion area of housing decreased year - on - year, although the decline narrowed. Real estate will continue to drag down electrolytic copper consumption [79]. - **Power Grid**: The planned investment of the two major power grid companies in 2025 increased by 6.7% compared to 2024. From January to March, the power grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year, and the wire and cable industry's copper consumption increased significantly [84]. - **Home Appliances**: In March 2025, the production and sales of household air - conditioners increased year - on - year. The consumption of air - conditioners is shifting from exports to domestic sales, but there are concerns about consumer waiting due to subsidies [86][87]. - **Automobiles**: From January to March 2025, China's automobile production increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicles growing rapidly. The substitution of new energy vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles will continue [89]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to March 2025, photovoltaic installation increased year - on - year, and the industry is in a rush - to - install period. Wind power installation decreased slightly, but the annual new - installation scale is expected to increase [95]. 3. Consumption Summary - In the 90 - day period, US consumption may decline rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends. After the sharp decline in copper prices in early April, domestic consumption increased rapidly, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while real estate continued to drag down the market [96][97]. V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Global Copper Supply - Demand**: The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons. The growth rate of copper mine production in 2025 is expected to be 0.88%, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2% [101][102]. - **China's Refined Copper Supply - Demand**: China's refined copper consumption is expected to grow by 2 - 2.6% in 2025. The supply - demand balance shows a certain degree of fluctuation in different months [105].

智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）4月份铜产量大约10.5万吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is not explicitly provided in the report. However, the report suggests a "buy on dips" hedging strategy, indicating a generally positive outlook. [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is in a volatile and strengthening pattern due to factors such as lower TC prices for smelting enterprises and a more relaxed attitude towards tariff policies and the Fed Chairman's stance. It is recommended to mainly adopt a buy - on - dips hedging strategy, while arbitrage is on hold and a short put option at 74,000 yuan/ton is suggested. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - On April 28, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 77,580 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 77,740 yuan/ton and closed at 77,630 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the afternoon close. [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The spot trading sentiment was active. Near the May Day holiday, the slightly lower price led downstream to pick up goods actively. The sellers' prices were the same as last week, and low - priced goods had more transactions. Downstream continued to bargain for purchases. [2] 3.2 Key Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The US Treasury increased its Q2 borrowing scale forecast to $514 billion. The "X - day" for the debt ceiling issue will be announced soon. Putin declared a 72 - hour cease - fire during the Victory Day celebration. The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral agreement this week. The Chinese central bank said it would cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner and create new structural monetary policy tools. [3] 3.2.2 Mine End - Panama's president declared that the closed Cobre copper mine "belongs to the country," and restarting negotiations must be government - led. The closure in 2023 caused a 2% drop in Panama's GDP, and First Quantum's stock price fell 3%. Southern Copper's Q1 2025 copper production was 24.2 tons, up from 24.0679 tons in the same period last year. The Antamina copper mine is gradually resuming operations. [4] 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - China Resources Recycling Group Non - ferrous Metals Investment Co., Ltd. was established to address resource shortages and industrial fragmentation. As of the week ending April 22, the net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds rebounded to 24,765 lots. [5] 3.2.4 Consumption - The downstream processing enterprises' procurement strategies were conservative. Pre - holiday stocking demand supported the spot market, and some enterprises replenished inventory at low prices. The supply of recycled copper raw materials was tight, and non - deliverable brands and non - standard copper materials had active transactions. [6] 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 25.00 tons to 202,800 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,704 tons to 36,884 tons. On April 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 15.51 million tons, a decrease of 2.66 million tons from the previous week. [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment decisions. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver stabilizes and rebounds. The trend intensities for both are neutral [5][6]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are supported by inventory reduction; aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation; zinc is in range consolidation; lead has a narrow - range oscillation; nickel may have a narrow - range oscillation with converging upside and downside space; stainless steel has a game between cost and negative feedback on the disk; tin has a slight repair; industrial silicon has a weak oscillation due to weak demand; and alumina is still seeking a bottom [2][10][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends; PTA, MEG, and other chemicals have specific trading strategies such as PTA's month - spread reverse arbitrage and going long on PTA and short on MEG [2][64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Corn oscillates strongly; sugar oscillates weakly; cotton's rebound is restricted by demand; and other agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's risk preference rebounds, and silver stabilizes and recovers. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2506 was 780.04 with a - 0.91% daily change, and沪银2506 was 8168 with a - 1.35% daily change. The trend intensities for both are 0 [5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction supports prices. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 77,580 with a 0.18% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [10]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum oscillates within a range, and alumina continues to seek a bottom. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 19935, and沪氧化铝主力合约 was 2862. The trend intensities for both are 0 [13]. - **Zinc**: It is in range consolidation. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22520 with a - 1.01% daily change. The trend intensity is 0 [16]. - **Lead**: It has a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 17005 with a 0.35% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel may have a narrow - range oscillation, and stainless steel has a game between cost and negative feedback. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,690, and不锈钢主力 was 12,765. The trend intensities for both are 0 [21][22]. - **Tin**: It has a slight repair. The closing price of沪锡主力 was 262,840 with a 1.26% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [25][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weak oscillation due to weak demand, and polysilicon is also weak due to news fermentation. The closing price of Si2506 was 8,800, and PS2506 was 37,780. The trend intensities for both are - 1 [32][33]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Cost support weakens, and attention should be paid to purchasing demand under high basis. The closing price of 2507 contract was 66,960. The trend intensity is 0 [36][37]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The closing price of 12509 was 710.5 with a 0.21% daily increase. The trend intensity is 0 [40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The expectation of production restriction increases, and there is a short - term rebound. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,129 with a 0.61% daily increase, and HC2510 was 3,237 with a 0.84% daily increase. The trend intensities for both are 1 [43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: They are in low - level oscillations. The closing price of硅铁2506 was 5648, and锰硅2506 was 5746. The trend intensities for both are 0 [48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are affected by production - restriction news and have wide - range oscillations. The closing price of JM2509 was 947 with a - 0.94% daily change, and J2509 was 1562 with a - 0.26% daily change. The trend intensities for both are 0 [51]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it oscillates weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [55]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The closing price of FG509 was 1122 with a - 0.53% daily change. The trend intensity is 0 [59][60]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX's processing fee expands; PTA has a month - spread reverse arbitrage; and the strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG. The closing price of PX主力 was 6230, PTA主力 was 4400, and MEG主力 was 4160. The trend intensities for all are 0 [64][66]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates. The closing price of the rubber主力 was 14,730 (daily) and 14,735 (night). The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn oscillates strongly; sugar oscillates weakly; soybean meal may stop falling gradually; and other products have their own price trends [2][4]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Eggs have a weak oscillation, and pigs start a phased inventory reduction [2][4].