今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出225.52亿元，尾盘净流入49.73亿元，全天净流出509.2亿元。 1月15日，A股市场主要指数涨跌不一，全市场超3100股下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4112.6点，下跌0.33%；深证成指收报14306.73点，上涨0.41%；创业板指收报 3367.92点，上涨0.56%。两市合计成交29054.96亿元，较上一交易日减少10358.93亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超500亿元 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-15 | -509.20 | -225.52 | 49.73 | -265. 38 | | 2026-1-14 | -504.74 | -71. 84 | -54. 14 | -90. 16 | | 2026-1-13 | -1286.54 | -530. 96 | -183. 95 | -718. 20 | | 2026-1-12 | -213.07 | - ...

•BMI报告预计，马来西亚央行将在2026年全年维持2.75%的政策利率不变。尽管经济增速或从2025年的 4.6%放缓至4.1%，但内需韧性及可控通胀（预计1.9%）支撑按兵不动立场。同时，美联储终端利率预 期下调至3.25%，美马利差收窄利好林吉特，BMI将2026年底美元兑林吉特汇率预期从4.10上调至4.00 （当前约4.0505）。 PIMCO：因美国政策不可预测，将系统性降低美国资产敞口 BMI：马来西亚央行2026年将按兵不动，林吉特有望走强至4.00 澳大利亚国民银行：产能利用率创18个月新高，澳储行2月加息预期升温 【机构分析】 •劳埃德银行外汇策略师指出，特朗普政府推动对美联储采取法律行动具有明显政治动机。尽管其任内 经济数据表面亮眼，但民众实际就业状况恶化——多个行业岗位减少，失业人数累计增加约70万。在就 业基本面持续走弱背景下，拥有独立决策权的美联储正被当作"非常方便的替罪羊"。美国政府通过指责 其货币政策，试图转移公众对劳动力市场深层次问题的关注，掩盖经济增长与民生脱节的现实。 •野村资产管理策略师表示，在通胀企稳、名义GDP加速增长的背景下，日本企业盈利有望持续扩张。 近年来日本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dividend sector experienced a slight decline today, with various indices reflecting a decrease in performance, while the E Fund dividend ETFs saw significant net inflows [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index fell by 0.01%, the CSI Dividend Value Index decreased by 0.1%, and both the CSI Dividend Index and CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index dropped by 0.2% [1]. - E Fund's dividend ETFs, including E Fund Dividend ETF (515180) and E Fund Low Volatility Dividend ETF (563020), received over 100 million yuan in net inflows yesterday [1]. Group 2: Fund Management and Fees - E Fund is currently the only fund company offering all dividend ETFs at a low fee rate of 0.15% per year, which aids investors in low-cost allocation to high-dividend assets [1][5]. - The management fee for E Fund's various dividend ETFs, including the Hang Seng Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159545), is set at 0.15% per year, with a custody fee of 0.05% per year [5]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI Dividend Index consists of 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields and stable performance, with banking, coal, and transportation sectors accounting for over 50% of the index [3]. - The CSI Low Volatility Dividend Index is composed of 50 stocks characterized by good liquidity, continuous dividends, and low volatility, with banking, construction, and pharmaceutical sectors making up nearly 65% of the index [3]. - The CSI Dividend Value Index includes 50 stocks with high dividend yields and value characteristics, with banking, construction, and transportation sectors representing over 60% of the index [4].

2026.01. 15 作者 | 一财阿驴 ▼ 0.33% ▲ 0.41% ▲ 0.56% A股分化加剧, 沪指承压深创韧性犹存, 上证指数: 收盘跌破10日均线, 日线级别MACD死又初 现,短期调整压力加大,4100点整数关口成为关键支撑位。 2226家上涨 3121 家下跌 涨跌停比 2H 65 个股跌多涨少,赚钱效应回落,高位风险集中释 放,盘面上,半导体产业链爆发,光刻机、先进 封装方向领涨;能源金属、消费电子、化工题材 表现活跃。AI应用、商业航天概念股大幅下 挫。 两市成交额 万亿元 ▼26.28% 两市成交额大幅萎缩,市场主动攻击动能有所 衰减,资金入场步伐放缓,转为观望,代表科技 成长的创业板指和深证成指则逆势收红,显示 出市场内在结构依然存在韧性。 主力资金净流出 698.67 散户资金净流入 机构呈"调仓避险+低吸布局"特征,资金从AI应用、商业航天等前期高位热门题材果断撤离,转而加仓银 行、非银金融等低估值防御板块,以及能源金属、贵金属等顺周期领域; 散户情绪从积极入场转向谨慎观 望,资金净流入规模大幅缩减,满仓率环比回落,短线追涨热情降温,部分散户开始布局贵金属、化工等顺 周期防御标 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power (00916) has successfully completed the issuance of super short-term financing bonds totaling RMB 3.7 billion, with a maturity of 149 days and an interest rate of 1.54% [1] Group 1: Financing Details - The total amount of the super short-term financing bonds issued is RMB 3.7 billion [1] - The bonds have a maturity period of 149 days, with a face value of RMB 100 each [1] - The interest on the bonds will start accruing from January 14, 2026 [1] Group 2: Underwriters and Use of Proceeds - The lead underwriter for the bond issuance is CITIC Bank, with China Merchants Bank serving as the co-lead underwriter [1] - The funds raised from this bond issuance will be used to supplement the company's working capital and repay interest-bearing debts of the issuer and its subsidiaries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent overdue public loans from Guangfa Bank have raised concerns about the bank's asset quality and risk management capabilities, with a total overdue amount exceeding 150 million yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Loan Default Information - Guangfa Bank disclosed two overdue public loans: 74.89 million yuan from Shaanxi Coal Supply Chain and 78 million yuan from Yida Construction Group, totaling over 150 million yuan [1][4]. - The overdue loans reflect risks in supply chain financing and the construction industry, both of which are closely tied to the economic climate and real estate market trends [4][2]. Group 2: Financial Data Analysis - As of the first half of 2025, Guangfa Bank reported a year-on-year decrease of 3.79% in non-performing loan (NPL) balance and an 8 basis point drop in NPL ratio, continuing a trend of "double decline" [1][6]. - However, the bank's loss loans reached 16.213 billion yuan, accounting for 51.89% of total NPLs, with a year-on-year increase of 20.36% [1][6]. Group 3: Industry Context and Risks - The overdue loans from Yida Construction Group highlight the spread of risks from the real estate sector to upstream construction companies, exacerbated by difficulties in receivables collection and extended project payment cycles [4][2]. - The bank's real estate loan NPL ratio has risen to 5.66%, while the construction sector's NPL ratio remains high at 3.39%, indicating accumulated risks from previous collaborations with distressed real estate firms [4][6]. Group 4: Business Structure and Internal Challenges - Guangfa Bank's business structure has been heavily reliant on credit cards and real estate, with credit card overdraft balances constituting 48.09% of personal loans, the highest among peer banks [7][8]. - The bank has faced regulatory penalties for various compliance issues, including improper loan issuance and misrepresentation of asset quality, totaling approximately 112 million yuan in 2025 [8][9]. Group 5: Financial Performance - In 2024, Guangfa Bank's operating income decreased by 0.65% to 68.796 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive year of revenue decline, while net profit fell by 4.98% to 15.006 billion yuan [9][11]. - The bank's net interest margin has narrowed to 1.53%, limiting its ability to absorb non-performing assets through profits [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (CPIC Life) has increased its stake in Shanghai International Airport Co., Ltd. to 5% through a block trade, marking the first significant investment by domestic insurance capital in 2026 [1] Group 1: Investment Details - On January 9, CPIC Life acquired 72.424 million shares of Shanghai Airport, raising its total holdings to approximately 124 million shares, which represents 5% of the company's A-share capital [1] - Prior to this acquisition, CPIC Life and its affiliates held 51.9917 million shares, equating to a 2.09% stake [1] - The total expenditure for this increase in stake is estimated at around 2.366 billion yuan, based on the closing price of 32.67 yuan per share on January 9 [1] Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The decision to increase the stake in Shanghai Airport aligns with the long-term investment preferences of insurance capital, as the airport possesses a monopolistic location advantage and a growing flow barrier, ensuring stable operations and strong cash flow [1] - Additionally, with the return of international consumption, the non-aviation business of Shanghai Airport is becoming increasingly valuable, indicating a high certainty of long-term growth [1] Group 3: Historical Context - In 2025, CPIC was active in the insurance capital market, making significant investments across various sectors including pharmaceuticals, finance, and infrastructure [2] - CPIC Life and CPIC Property Insurance passively acquired shares in Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical through a stock conversion process, resulting in a combined holding of 754.6 million shares, or 6.70% of the company [2] - CPIC Asset Management also holds stakes in Shanghai Lingang (5.33%) and Hu Nong Commercial Bank (5.81%), which were built through gradual increases prior to 2025 [2]

对于市场关注的AI板块，吴永强指出，虽然AI股目前估值偏高并出现泡沫迹象，但与千禧年科网泡沫 时期相比，现今AI产业享有大国博弈下的政策支持，且利率环境较低，企业融资更为便利。更重要的 是，AI需求正呈现爆炸式增长，有望对其长远发展构成坚实支撑。 来源：观点地产网 观点网 香港报道：1月15日消息，东亚银行近日发表市场展望，预期环球经济2026年首季有望保持平稳 增长，建议投资者适度增加股票配置，并对黄金采取"逢低吸纳"策略。 该行投资策略师吴永强表示，全球经济展现韧性，通胀持续回落，货币及财政政策料维持偏宽松格局。 预期美国联储局今年将减息三次，共75个基点，主要基于就业市场疲弱及通胀回落，旨在平衡稳定通胀 与支持就业，避免经济错失"软着陆"。 债市方面，陈伟聪预期，在企业信贷基本面改善、美国利率下行及去美元化趋势下，亚洲企业美元债券 今年将有稳健表现。其中，中国科技、媒体和通讯业债券需求强劲，但内房债仍需保持审慎。 此外，高级投资策略师黄燕娥指出，内地经济正步入政策成效收成期，若未来数据持续向好，将支持人 民币展开新一轮升浪。她预期，由于内地息口已低，进一步大幅减息的空间有限。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its key interest rate to 1% or higher by September, with over 75% of economists predicting this increase from the current 0.75% level, which is the highest in 30 years [2] - The new Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, has expressed a preference for low interest rates, causing market volatility and raising concerns about the risks of further rate hikes [2][3] - A majority of economists believe the Bank of Japan will maintain the current rate during the January and March meetings, with 76% predicting a rise to at least 1% by the end of September [3][4] Group 2 - 60% of economists surveyed predict that the Bank of Japan will raise rates once this year, while 31% expect two increases [4] - The median forecast for the terminal interest rate has increased to 1.5%, significantly higher than the 1% forecast from a year ago, with a range of predictions between 1% and 2% [4]

Group 1 - The "2026 Zhuhai Economic High-Quality Development Action Plan" was officially issued, introducing 22 policy measures aimed at boosting investment, consumption, enterprise expansion, and livelihood protection to achieve a strong economic start in Q1 [1] - In the industrial investment sector, the plan offers rewards for industrial enterprises completing investment progress exceeding 50 million, 100 million, 200 million, and 500 million yuan, with maximum rewards of 70,000, 150,000, 250,000, and 400,000 yuan respectively [1] - Differentiated production incentive policies are established for various industries, with manufacturing enterprises achieving year-on-year output growth receiving rewards ranging from 70,000 to 700,000 yuan based on different scales [1] Group 2 - Wholesale and retail enterprises will receive direct support, with rewards for wholesale sales growth of 200 million, 500 million, and over 1 billion yuan, and retail sales growth of 30 million, 50 million, and over 100 million yuan, with maximum support of 80,000, 200,000, and 400,000 yuan respectively [2] - The real estate market will focus on stimulating housing demand, with a subsidy of 1% on the net signing price for residents participating in housing exchanges, capped at 30,000 yuan per unit [2] - The "Yue Enjoy Warm Winter, Shop Guangdong" consumption season will provide special consumption subsidies for automobiles, home appliances, and local products, along with dining promotions offering up to 100 yuan in discounts [2]