截至收盘，沪指微跌0.09%报4132.61点，深证成指跌0.85%，创业板指跌0.91%，上证50指数涨0.57%； 沪深北三市合计成交约3.28万亿元。 1月26日，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指弱势下探，一度跌超1%；A股市场超3700股飘绿。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，半导体、汽车、地产、军工、零售等板块走低，有色、石油、保险、农业、医药等板块拉 升，黄金概念、生物疫苗、创新药概念等活跃。 银河证券表示，短期来看，春季行情延续，后续板块轮动上涨概率较大，业绩基本面重要性提升。一方 面，1月下旬正值上市公司年报业绩预告集中披露期，关注业绩线索对结构性行情的指引，高景气赛道 与盈利改善细分板块或迎来行情修复。另一方面，美联储议息会议即将召开，市场普遍预计美联储将维 持基准利率不变，政策声明以及新闻发布会表态或阶段性影响市场风险偏好。板块轮动中关注结构性投 资机会。主线一，科技创新板块。短期来看，关注细分板块之间的轮动补涨机会。前期强势的商业航 天、AI应用等主题受到产业趋势催化，但后续内部分化或有所加大。主线二，制造业、资源板块盈利 修复路径清晰。重点关注涨价逻辑下业绩支撑的有色金属、基础化工等行业 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight decline of 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.85% and 0.91% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 3.28 trillion yuan, with over 1,600 stocks rising [1] Sector Highlights - The gold sector showed strong performance, with stocks such as Hunan Gold, Shengda Resources, Sichuan Gold, and China Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - Resource sectors including oil, coal, and gas were active, with stocks like Heshun Petroleum and Intercontinental Oil & Gas also reaching the daily limit [1] - The virus prevention concept saw a surge, with stocks like Maike Biological, Kaipu Biological, Zhijiang Biological, and Hualan Vaccine hitting the daily limit [1] Sector Declines - Sectors such as electric machinery, automotive parts, semiconductors, communication equipment, satellite internet, robotic actuators, and commercial aerospace experienced notable declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel in China have decreased as of January 23, with average prices for 92 gasoline at 7332 yuan per ton and diesel at 6095 yuan per ton, reflecting a drop of 3 yuan and 17 yuan per ton respectively [1] Market Overview - The decline in wholesale prices is attributed to a drop in international crude oil futures prices on January 22, leading to a narrowing of the average price change rate for a basket of crude oils, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] - Insufficient terminal demand has pressured gasoline and diesel prices, with operating units actively seeking to increase sales volume towards the end of the month [1] Regional Price Changes - Gasoline prices increased in Inner Mongolia and Anhui, while they decreased in Heilongjiang, Gansu, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shandong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hebei, Hubei [1] - Diesel prices saw an increase in Ningxia, but decreased in Gansu, Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Shandong, Beijing, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Guangdong [1] - In Shandong, both gasoline and diesel prices experienced a slight decline [1] Data Source - The price data is published by the China Economic Information Agency and the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute's "Energy Big Data Laboratory," in collaboration with the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, reflecting the overall situation of China's gasoline and diesel wholesale market [1]

根据《石油价格管理办法》规定，国内汽、柴油价格根据国际市场原油价格变化每10个工作日调整一 次，调价生效时间为调价发布日24时。当调价幅度低于每吨50元时，不作调整，纳入下次调价时累加或 冲抵。出现办法规定的特殊情形时，可以暂停、延迟调价，或缩小调价幅度。 1月26日是本计价周期的第四个工作日，调价窗口将在2月3日24时开启。 新华财经北京1月26日电（薛尚文）新华社石油价格系统1月26日发布的数据显示，1月23日一揽子原油 平均价格变化率为2.50%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight decline of 0.09% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.85% and 0.91% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 3.28 trillion yuan, with over 1,600 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The gold sector showed strong performance, with multiple stocks such as Hunan Gold, Shengda Resources, Sichuan Gold, and China Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - Resource sectors including oil, coal, and gas were active, with stocks like Heshun Petroleum and Intercontinental Oil & Gas also reaching the daily limit [1] - The virus prevention sector saw a surge, with stocks like Maike Biology, Cape Biology, Zhijiang Biology, and Hualan Vaccine hitting the daily limit [1] Declining Sectors - Sectors such as electric motors, automotive parts, semiconductors, communication equipment, satellite internet, robotic actuators, and commercial aerospace experienced declines [1] - The overall market showed a mixed performance with certain sectors like mining, small metals, non-ferrous metals, insurance, fertilizers, securities, and titanium dioxide showing gains [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.2%, while the Central Enterprises Dividend Index rose by 1.08% [1] - Among the constituents of the Central Enterprises Dividend Index, China Merchants Energy surged over 6%, China Railway increased by over 5%, and China National Offshore Oil, China National Building Material, and China Shenhua all rose by over 4% [1] - The Tianhong Central Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) recorded a trading volume exceeding 63 million yuan, with a net subscription of 22 million shares during the session [1] Group 2 - CICC indicated that the dividend sector presents phase-specific and structural opportunities amid increasing external uncertainties or a pullback in growth styles, highlighting a "seesaw" effect between dividend and technology growth styles [2] - Demand for capital allocation is expected to support the dividend sector, including the shift of long-term funds from insurance and bank wealth management towards equity assets, as well as the transition of household deposits to dividend assets [2] - The overall dividend payout ratio in the A-share market has increased to 45%, providing fundamental support for the dividend style, alongside continuous encouragement from capital market policies for dividend-oriented strategies [2]

Core Insights - Russian fuel oil exports to Asia have slowed down in early 2026 due to increased scrutiny from tighter Western sanctions impacting trade [1] - Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refining facilities have led to a reduction in output, further contributing to the decline in exports [1] Industry Impact - The combination of Western sanctions and military actions has created significant challenges for the Russian fuel oil export sector, particularly in its ability to maintain trade levels with Asian markets [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to continue affecting the supply chain and operational capabilities of Russian oil producers [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant drop in the price of Russian Urals crude oil due to decreased demand from Indian processors and weakened buyer competition, leading to historical lows in prices for shipments to China [2] - A dramatic scene unfolded in the Yellow Sea where at least five supertankers loaded with Russian Urals crude oil were anchored for an extended period, neither unloading nor changing course, indicating a surplus of unsold oil [2] - Russia is eager to sell the crude oil that India no longer wants and is negotiating prices with Chinese buyers, offering substantial discounts to facilitate sales [2] Group 2 - India, which had been the largest buyer of Russian oil after Western markets closed, has seen its average daily imports of Russian oil plummet to approximately 1.2 million barrels in December, the lowest level since November 2022 [8] - The sudden contraction of the Indian market has had an immediate impact on Russia, creating a significant gap in its oil export system and forcing a halt in oil exports that were originally destined for South Asia [8] - A large amount of unsold crude oil is now accumulating at sea, with nearly half of it stranded in the Arabian Sea near India and about one-fifth near the Malacca Strait and Yellow Sea [8] Group 3 - China, as the world's largest crude oil importer, has responded calmly and rationally to the discounted Russian oil, maintaining a diversified energy policy to avoid over-reliance on a single source [10] - Despite Russia becoming China's largest crude oil supplier in 2024, the top five suppliers to China continue to account for no more than 65% of total imports, indicating a balanced sourcing strategy [10] - In response to India's reduced purchases, China has increased imports from Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, ensuring a stable supply [10] Group 4 - The U.S. sanctions have partially achieved their goal of compressing Russia's fiscal revenue and oil export capacity, demonstrating the effectiveness of pressure tactics [10] - Ironically, the sanctions have allowed China to benefit from lower prices, showcasing its ability to leverage its own strength rather than succumbing to U.S. pressure [12] - China's actions reflect a strong stance against U.S. coercion, indicating confidence in its ability to operate independently in the global oil market [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals and oil sectors, driven by rising commodity prices and geopolitical tensions [1] - Spot gold has reached a historical high of $5080.60 per ounce, with a 2% increase, while spot silver briefly surpassed $108 per ounce, showing a daily increase of over 4.6% [1] - The cash flow index's focus on "strong cyclical resources" like non-ferrous metals and chemicals reflects its structural advantages and precise value in the market [1] Group 2 - The CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has risen by 0.81%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as silver non-ferrous (up 10.03%), Nanshan Aluminum (up 7.08%), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (up 5.86%) [1] - The CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow ETF (512130) has increased by 1.84%, marking its sixth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 1.33 yuan [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, and Gree Electric Appliances, collectively accounting for 53.78% of the index [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东地缘局势升温，国际油价延续上涨势头 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东地缘局势升温，国际油价延续上涨势头 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882 ...