6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 10 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 台湾的成熟制程代工厂世界先进，日前在法说会上表示下游出现需求转强、供 需转紧的情况。因此，有新闻报道该公司规划今年 4 月起调涨部分产品代工报 价，涨幅达 15%。除此外，台湾的力积电日前表示，AI 服务器带动电源管理 IC 与相关功率元件需求增温，加上部分 8 英寸无尘室改装供先进封装设备使用， 产能已难以满足客户需求，规划 3 月调升 8 英寸晶圆代工价格；台湾联电也开 始强调定价策略维持纪律，公司估计 2026 年成熟制程市场仍有 1%至 3%的温和 成长。因此从台湾厂商集体释放的信息趋势看，半导体代工涨价的概率较高， 有利于相关行业盈利的持续改善。 2 月 10 日谷歌母公司 Alphabet Inc 计划发行美元债券筹 200 亿美元，融资规模 超过了此前预期的 150 亿美元，此次发行吸引了超过 1000 亿美元的认购，成为 企业债发行史上需求最强劲的案例之一。据知情人士透露，此次发行中期限最 长的部分--2066 年到期的债券--定价已从早前的较美 ...

格隆汇2月4日丨据ZDNET，三星电子晶圆代工中心近日已与主要合作伙伴沟通，考虑针对4nm和8nm工 艺提价，预计涨幅约为10%。 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline on February 2, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,775.57 points, down 611.54 points, representing a drop of 2.23% [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also fell, closing at 5,526.31 points, down 191.87 points, a decrease of 3.36% [2] Sector Performance - Precious metals stocks were heavily impacted, with Shandong Gold (HK01787) and Chifeng Jilong Gold (HK06693) both dropping over 12%. Other companies like Lingbao Gold and Jiangxi Copper fell more than 9%, while Zijing Mining dropped over 5% [4] - In the automotive sector, shares of Xpeng Motors (HK09868) fell by 6%, and NIO (HK09866) dropped over 4% [5] - Semiconductor stocks also faced declines, with Hua Hong Semiconductor falling over 11% [6] - Technology stocks generally declined, with Bilibili dropping over 4%, and major companies like Baidu, NetEase, Kuaishou, and Alibaba falling over 3% [7] Investment Insights - Citigroup's recent commodity report indicated that current gold prices have significantly priced in future uncertainties, suggesting that while there may be short-term price increases, valuations are at "extreme levels" [5] - Despite the downturn, southbound capital saw a small inflow, with net purchases of Hong Kong stocks exceeding 1.9 billion HKD by the end of the trading day [7] Future Outlook - Huatai Securities believes the current market correction is a technical pullback due to rapid previous gains and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. They suggest focusing on sectors with clearer benefits, such as AI and semiconductor manufacturing [10] - Morgan Stanley notes that the recent bull market has led to profit-taking ahead of the Lunar New Year, but geopolitical uncertainties may enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, predicting that the Hong Kong market could outperform the A-share market in the short term [10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index reached a four-year high last week, but experienced a technical pullback due to a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, indicating a risk-off sentiment in global equity markets [1] - The market sentiment index moved from panic to optimism within 16 days, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [1] - Current market volatility is expected to persist, but it is more likely to be a correction rather than a reversal of market performance [1] Earnings and Revenue Expectations - Non-financial earnings expectations have been revised upward by 0.4% over the past four weeks, while revenue expectations have been slightly downgraded by 0.1% [2] - The sectors with the most significant upward revisions in earnings expectations include non-ferrous metals (7.7%), military industry (4.0%), and electric new energy (1.8%) [2] Capital Flow - Foreign capital continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with net inflows reaching $2.8 billion, up from $1.95 billion the previous week [3] - Active foreign capital has seen a continuous inflow for three weeks, with a record weekly inflow of $640 million [3] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair has led to short-term volatility, but the medium-term liquidity outlook remains accommodative [3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment index has risen to 62.1, indicating an optimistic outlook [4] - Factors contributing to this optimism include strong net inflows from southbound capital and high buying intensity [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with earnings certainty should be considered as core holdings, while opportunities to increase allocations in technology and cyclical materials should be explored during market corrections [5] - Focus on sectors showing upward trends, such as AI-related industries, semiconductor manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5]

Core Viewpoints - The recent market pullback is seen as a technical correction rather than a reversal, primarily driven by the rapid rise in stock prices and the hawkish stance of the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chair [2] - The current market sentiment has shifted to an optimistic zone, with the emotional index reaching 62.1, indicating a potential for continued volatility in the short term [5][49] - The three driving factors for market space in the first quarter remain intact: improved liquidity, resonance in the funding environment, and upward revisions in profit expectations [2] Fundamental Analysis - Non-financial profit expectations have been revised upward by 0.4% over the past four weeks, while revenue expectations have been slightly adjusted downward by 0.1% [3] - The sectors with the most significant upward revisions in profit expectations include non-ferrous metals (7.7%), military industry (4.0%), and new energy (1.8%) [3] - The official manufacturing PMI for January stands at 49.3, reflecting demand-side pressures, although there are positive signals in price recovery [3] Funding Environment - Foreign capital continues to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, with net inflows reaching $2.8 billion, up from $1.95 billion the previous week [4] - Active foreign capital has seen a continuous inflow for three weeks, with a record weekly inflow of $640 million, while passive foreign capital remains at a high level [4] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to short-term volatility, but the medium-term liquidity outlook remains relatively loose [4] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has quickly transitioned into an optimistic zone, with the emotional index indicating a potential accumulation of short-term volatility risks [5][49] - The sentiment indicators, including net inflows from southbound funds and the AH premium score, remain high, suggesting strong market participation [5] Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with earnings certainty as a core holding, with a focus on the technology and cyclical materials sectors for potential incremental investments [6] - Short-term attention should be given to leading companies' earnings reports and industry developments, particularly in the AI supply chain [6] - Mid-term strategies should continue to overweight resource stocks, insurance, and local Hong Kong stocks after stabilization [6]

本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 台积电 本文内容由 Ryan Lee (李昊谦) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 2330 TT 中国台湾科技行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 为长远发展承担风险 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 1 月 28 日发布的题为《Risk it for the biscuit》的报告，分析指出，台积电在 2026 年 520-560 亿美元的资本支出指引令市场意外。在可能原因中，中信里 昂指出，在台积电的产能扩张中新厂建设比例高于此前预期，导致各制程节点的资本支出处于经验区间上沿。产能投 产周期较以往更长，这在高企的在建工程中有所体现，即使基础建设支出（土地与厂房）也在加速。因此，分析认为 未来两年供需平衡不会出现实质性变化。 2026 年资本支出为何超预期 60-100 亿美元？ 分析指出，单节点资本支出始终是 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has been identified as the largest "risk" factor in the global AI supply chain due to its conservative early predictions regarding AI demand, despite its dominant position in the semiconductor foundry sector [1] Group 1: TSMC's Position and Challenges - TSMC's CEO has shown caution towards large-scale construction, leading to insufficient early investments and resulting in a severe supply shortage [2] - The impact of capacity bottlenecks has spread from chip manufacturers to downstream hyperscalers, with companies like Nvidia and AMD facing extended delivery cycles [2] - Major tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta are currently unable to secure guaranteed delivery schedules, with Microsoft's Maia 200 AI chip facing significant supply constraints [2] Group 2: Financial Implications and Production Capacity - Analysts warn that the current risks could translate into revenue losses amounting to billions of dollars for hyperscale operators [2] - In addition to wafer manufacturing, the shortage of advanced packaging capacity is another critical issue, with TSMC's CoWoS technology being the preferred solution for AI chip manufacturing [2] - TSMC plans to increase capital expenditures to $56 billion this year to alleviate pressure, but it is unlikely to meet the surging market demand in the short term [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Intel Foundry and Samsung are attempting to enter the AI chip manufacturing space, but manufacturers remain hesitant to switch from TSMC due to the irreplaceable supply chain ecosystem and trust established by TSMC [4]

Core Viewpoint - The storage market is experiencing a significant price increase, with NAND flash contract prices rising over 100% as of January 2026, driven by strong demand for AI-related hardware and supply chain imbalances [1]. Group 1: Price Increases in Storage Market - Samsung Electronics has negotiated a price increase for NAND flash contracts with major clients, effective from January 2026 [1]. - The price increase is spreading from storage chips to the foundry and packaging/testing sectors, indicating a broader industry trend [1]. - Demand for AI computing power is driving the need for related hardware, leading to supply-demand imbalances across the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: Foundry and Testing Price Adjustments - The price increase in storage chips is affecting the foundry and packaging/testing sectors, with companies like TSMC and Samsung reducing production while AI-related Power IC demand remains strong [2]. - Some foundries are notifying clients of price increases ranging from 5% to 20% due to rising raw material costs and AI demand [3]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its price increase expectations for leading packaging companies, forecasting a rise of 5% to 20% in 2026, driven by strong AI semiconductor demand [4]. Group 3: Expansion in Packaging Industry - The packaging industry is entering an expansion phase, with companies like Yongxi Electronics planning to invest in new production facilities in Malaysia [5]. - Qizhong Technology is also increasing its investment in advanced packaging firms to enhance its competitive position in the high-end packaging sector [5]. Group 4: Passive Component Price Surge - Major passive component manufacturers, such as Huaxin Technology, have announced significant price increases for resistors due to rising costs of raw materials and labor [7]. - The price of key materials like silver and copper has surged, contributing to the overall increase in passive component prices [8]. - The demand for high-end capacitors in AI servers has led to a shift in production capacity, resulting in reduced supply of mid-to-low-end components and further driving up prices [8][9].

格隆汇1月27日丨三安光电(600703.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司的砷化镓射频代工及滤波器业务暂 未出现涨价情况。 ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.00%, S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.18% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up 0.10%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17%, France's CAC40 down 0.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.08% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is up 0.07% at $61.11 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up 0.12% at $65.15 per barrel [3][4] Earnings Reports - Major tech companies including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla are set to release earnings reports this week, with Apple following shortly after [5] - The earnings season will test the resilience of large-cap tech stocks as investors shift focus to cyclical stocks, small-cap stocks, and international markets [5] - In the semiconductor industry, South Korean giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will also report earnings this week, with analysts becoming increasingly positive on the fundamentals and stock outlook for core companies in the storage chip sector [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to maintain its independence, with no signs of compromise as it prepares for a key meeting this week [6] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to avoid initiating an accelerated easing cycle, with focus on how Chairman Powell will address future policy paths and political pressures [6] - Morgan Stanley anticipates minor adjustments in the Fed's policy statement, including an upgrade in economic growth description from "moderate" to "robust" [7] Gold Market - Gold prices have surged, nearing $5,100 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and currency depreciation [8] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to a weakening US dollar and investor behavior shifting away from sovereign bonds [8] Corporate News - The Trump administration plans to invest $1.6 billion in USA Rare Earth for a 10% stake, marking the largest single investment by the US government in the rare earth sector [10] - Merck has halted negotiations to acquire Revolution Medicines due to price disagreements, which could have valued the deal at around $30 billion [11] - Citigroup is expected to announce further layoffs in March, potentially affecting MD and senior-level employees, following a recent round of layoffs [12] Acquisition Activity - IonQ has agreed to acquire SkyWater Technology for approximately $1.8 billion, aligning with efforts to bolster US semiconductor manufacturing [13]