Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][15]. Core Views - The company has shown a continuous increase in revenue and profit, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 5.198 billion yuan, up 18.21% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 332 million yuan, up 77.61% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings, particularly in CIS and PMIC segments, which are increasingly contributing to revenue [5][6]. - The company is also making significant advancements in new product development, particularly in OLED display driver chips, with expectations for mass production by the end of 2025 [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 24.89 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 49.9 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 2.006 billion shares, with 1.187 billion shares in circulation [2]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 48.2%, and the current P/E ratio is 92.19 [2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a comprehensive gross margin of 25.76% [4]. - The main business revenue for H1 2025 was 5.130 billion yuan, with a significant portion coming from various process nodes and application products [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 10.864 billion yuan, 12.485 billion yuan, and 14.153 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 854 million yuan, 1.256 billion yuan, and 1.526 billion yuan [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has significantly increased its market share to 70.2% in Q2 2025, driven by strong revenue growth and advanced process technology, while Samsung's market share has declined to 7.3% [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Share and Revenue Growth - TSMC's market share reached 70.2%, up from 67.6% in the previous quarter, marking a significant increase [2][3]. - The overall wafer foundry industry revenue grew by 14.6% quarter-on-quarter, with TSMC's revenue growth at 18.5%, reaching $30.239 billion [3][5]. - Samsung's market share decreased from 7.7% to 7.3%, with revenue of $3.159 billion and a growth rate of 9.2% [5]. Group 2: Future Projections and Investments - Analysts expect TSMC's market share to rise to 75% by 2026, supported by increasing demand for 2nm processes [3][7]. - TSMC plans to invest up to $49 billion in the construction of a 1.4nm chip factory in Taiwan, aiming to maintain its technological leadership [7]. - TSMC is set to begin mass production of 2nm technology in Q4 2025, with initial capacity already secured by Apple and future orders from Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Broadcom [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Despite TSMC's clear advantages, Samsung is actively pursuing advancements in 2nm GAA technology, aiming to launch the Exynos 2600 chip [8]. - However, Samsung's current production capacity and customer base are insufficient to compete with TSMC's established position in the market [8]. - TSMC's stable customer foundation and advanced process nodes ensure its continued dominance in the global wafer foundry market [8].

Core Viewpoint - SMIC (688981.SH) announced plans to issue RMB ordinary shares (A-shares) to acquire minority stakes in its subsidiary, SMIC North Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (Beijing) Co., Ltd, leading to a stock suspension starting September 1, 2025, for no more than 10 trading days [2]. Company Overview - SMIC North Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (Beijing) Co., Ltd has a registered capital of USD 480 million and specializes in semiconductor manufacturing, including integrated circuit chips with a line width of 28 nanometers and below [3]. - The transaction is not expected to constitute a major asset restructuring but is classified as a related party transaction, with an asset purchase intention agreement signed with major shareholders of SMIC North [3]. Stock Performance - SMIC's A-shares fell by 3.74% to CNY 114.76 per share after a previous increase of over 17%, which had set a historical high [4]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, SMIC reported total sales revenue of USD 2.209 billion, a decrease of 1.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.4%, down by 2.1 percentage points [5][7]. - The company’s operating profit decreased by 51.3% to USD 150.677 million, while net profit fell by 54.6% to USD 146.681 million compared to the previous quarter [7]. - Year-to-date, SMIC's sales revenue reached USD 4.46 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.4%, up by 7.6 percentage points from the previous year [8]. Production Capacity - SMIC's monthly production capacity increased from 973,300 wafers in Q1 2025 to 991,300 wafers in Q2 2025, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.5%, up from 89.6% in the previous quarter [9]. - The company shipped 2.3902 million wafers in Q2 2025, reflecting a 4.3% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 13.2% year-on-year increase [9]. Market Outlook - For Q3 2025, SMIC provided revenue guidance of a 5% to 7% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin forecast of 18% to 20% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.198 billion RMB in 1H25, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.21%, and a net profit of 332 million RMB, up 77.61% year-over-year [1][4] - The revenue growth in 2Q25 was driven by steady capacity expansion and high utilization rates, with a revenue of 2.631 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.24% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.46% [1][2] - The company is optimistic about the expansion of its N3 plant capacity and the growth of CIS and PMIC products, which will enhance its product structure [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a net profit of 332 million RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 204 million RMB, showing increases of 77.61% and 115.30% year-over-year, respectively [1][4] - The gross margin in 2Q25 was 24.32%, with a year-over-year increase of 0.46 percentage points [1][2] Product Development - The company has diversified its product offerings, achieving mass production across various platforms including DDIC, CIS, PMIC, MCU, and Logic [2] - The revenue contribution from different process nodes includes 10.38% from 55nm, 43.14% from 90nm, 26.74% from 110nm, and 19.67% from 150nm [2] Future Outlook - The company expects the OLED DDIC business to be a key growth driver, with a projected CAGR of 4.5% for OLED DDIC shipments from 2024 to 2030 [2] - The CIS market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 6% from 2023 to 2029, with the company’s 55nm CIS platform already in mass production [2] - The PMIC platform has become a significant revenue growth line, with its revenue contribution increasing from 9% in 2024 to 12% in 1H25 [2] Valuation - The target price is set at 32.22 RMB, based on a 3.0x PB valuation, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 27.10 RMB [3][4] - The estimated net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 870 million RMB, 1.12 billion RMB, and 1.31 billion RMB, respectively [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by higher wafer sales and average selling prices [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately $4.456 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 22% [1] - The revenue from wafer foundry services was $4.2286 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around $320 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.6% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at $0.04 [1] Sales and Pricing - The number of wafers sold (equivalent to 8-inch standard logic) increased by 19.9%, from 3,907 thousand units in the same period last year to 4,682 thousand units [1] - The average selling price of wafers rose to $903, compared to $869 in the previous year [1] Market Position and Capacity - SMIC continues to hold the second position globally in pure wafer foundry services [1] - The company has made solid progress in capacity expansion, adding nearly 20,000 pieces of 12-inch standard logic monthly capacity in the first half of 2025 [1] - The overall capacity utilization rate is leading in the industry [1] Innovation and Collaboration - The company is steadily advancing in process research and development, as well as platform construction, enhancing product competitiveness and market influence [1] - SMIC has achieved significant results in open collaboration, engaging closely with upstream and downstream partners in the supply chain, as well as with universities and research institutions for talent cultivation [1] - The company is committed to advancing digital initiatives and fostering open cooperation to build consensus and synergy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the existence of a slightly weaker competitor in the advanced process field may create a false sense of "choice" for customers, which could actually benefit TSMC by reducing ongoing government scrutiny and pressures from policies like "manufacturing return to the U.S." [2][3][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TSMC is expected to maintain over 90% market share in the advanced process field, with a "buy" rating and a target price of 1,275 New Taiwan Dollars [3][7]. - The notion of TSMC becoming a monopolist has not significantly increased its price-to-earnings ratio, which remains under pressure from government scrutiny and geopolitical risks [7][8]. Group 2: Intel's Foundry Business - The market may view the participation of major TSMC clients like Apple and Nvidia in Intel's foundry revival as a direct loss of market share for TSMC, but this is not entirely negative [9]. - Intel's foundry business faces fundamental challenges beyond financial issues, including the need for a different corporate culture and customer-centric innovation [11][12]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Intel's foundry strategy has historically struggled to gain traction, even when it had a dominant position in the CPU market [11]. - The best chance for Intel's foundry success may lie in adopting an N-1 approach, which could mitigate risks for potential customers and enhance capacity without directly competing with TSMC in advanced processes [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The threat posed by Intel's foundry business revival to TSMC is overstated, and it may actually benefit TSMC by alleviating regulatory pressures due to its monopoly status [1][3]. Group 1: Intel's Foundry Business - Intel's foundry revival is not purely negative for TSMC, as it may create a competitive environment that reduces regulatory scrutiny [1][5]. - The fundamental challenges facing Intel's foundry business extend beyond financial issues, including the need for a cultural shift towards customer-centric innovation and cost efficiency [1][6]. - Analysts believe that Intel must successfully execute on multiple advanced process nodes to gain credibility in the foundry market, which remains a significant challenge [5][6]. Group 2: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC is expected to maintain over 90% market share in advanced process technology, regardless of Intel's foundry efforts [1][5]. - The perception of TSMC as a potential monopolist has not significantly boosted its price-to-earnings ratio, and may instead attract more scrutiny from government agencies [3][5]. - A slightly weaker competitor in the advanced process space could create a perception of choice for customers, which may ultimately benefit TSMC by reducing regulatory pressures [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - Huahong Semiconductor is planning to acquire a controlling stake in Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics to fulfill its IPO commitment and strengthen its position in the mature process semiconductor market [2][3][4]. Asset Integration - The acquisition aims to resolve the same-industry competition issue that was promised during Huahong Semiconductor's IPO application [3]. - The assets being acquired include those related to 65/55nm and 40nm processes, which are currently in the process of being separated [3][4]. - This move is part of a broader trend of mergers and acquisitions in the domestic semiconductor industry, aimed at optimizing resource allocation and enhancing competitive advantages [4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Huahong Semiconductor reported a sales revenue of $566 million, an 18.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of $8 million, up 19.2% year-on-year [7]. - The revenue from mature process technologies (65nm and below) accounted for 22.2% of total revenue, while 90nm and 95nm processes contributed 25.7% [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, particularly in the mature process segment, driven by demand from sectors like automotive and industrial electronics [7][9]. - Consumer electronics remain the largest revenue source for Huahong Semiconductor, contributing $357 million in Q2, which is 63.1% of total revenue [8]. Strategic Focus - Huahong Semiconductor continues to focus on mature process technologies and has no immediate plans to delve into advanced process technologies [6][9]. - The company’s strategy allows it to avoid direct competition with major players like TSMC and SMIC, while maintaining a sustainable cash flow due to lower R&D costs compared to advanced process investments [9].

Core Viewpoint - SkyWater Technology's acquisition of Infineon's 200mm wafer fab in Austin, Texas, will quadruple its production capacity, expanding traditional node production from 130nm to 65nm, and is expected to meet the needs of various clients including the U.S. Department of Defense and quantum computing manufacturers [2][4]. Group 1: Acquisition and Capacity Expansion - The acquisition will increase SkyWater's annual wafer production capacity to approximately 400,000 wafers, which is four times its previous capacity [2]. - The deal provides critical processing capabilities, including back-end-of-line (BEOL) technology, essential for connecting various devices on a chip [2]. - SkyWater has signed multiple supply agreements with Infineon, valued at over $1 billion, to produce chips for the next four years [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategic Positioning - A significant portion of semiconductor manufacturing capacity has shifted overseas, with 80% to 90% of microcontrollers and embedded electronics produced outside the U.S., primarily in China and Taiwan, creating challenges for U.S. defense and industrial sectors [3]. - The U.S. government is increasingly aware of the need for secure domestic supply chains, as highlighted by ongoing investigations by the Department of Commerce [3]. - SkyWater aims to differentiate itself from larger foundries like TSMC by focusing on technology-as-a-service products, which is gaining attention in the industry [4]. Group 3: Collaboration and Innovation - SkyWater has a long-standing partnership with Google, having developed the first open-source process design kit (PDK) for mixed-signal technology [5]. - The company is positioning itself as a leading foundry for quantum hardware innovation, collaborating with companies like D-Wave and PsiQuantum [5]. - SkyWater's research focuses on superconductors and photonics, working closely with clients to develop custom manufacturing processes that differ from traditional foundry operations [5].

机构：国信证券 研究员：胡剑/胡慧/叶子/张大为 2Q25 营收超指引上限，预计3Q25 营收环比增长。公司2Q25 实现销售收入22.09 亿美元（YoY +16.2%，QoQ -1.7%），高于指引(QoQ -4%至-6%)上限，晶圆收入占总收入的94.6%；毛利率为20.4% (YoY +6.4pct，QoQ -2.1pct)，超指引(18%-20%)上限；归母净利润为1.32 亿美元(YoY -19.5%，QoQ -29.5%)；折旧摊销金额为8.79 亿美元(YoY +10.2%，QoQ +1.5%)。公司预计3Q25 营收环比增长 5%-7%，毛利率为18%-20%。原先公司担心的关税政策是否硬着陆、市场刺激和急建库存是否透支了未 来的需求，以及大宗商品需求是否在新关税引起的价格上涨后衰退，这些目前并没有发生。 二季度产能利用率环比提高2.9pct，创3Q22 以来新高。公司2Q25 付运折合8 英寸晶圆239 万片(YoY +13.2%，QoQ +4.3%)，产能利用率上升至92.5%(YoY+7.3pct，QoQ +2.9pct)，创3Q22 以来新高。在晶 圆收入中12 英寸晶圆贡献76.1 ...