全球贸易正经历"冰火两重天"：世界贸易组织预警全球经济前景恶化，关税上调与贸易政策不确定性对全球贸易造成巨大压 力。"越在低迷期，越要看到逆向机遇。"小渔夫联合创始人何孔在解读市场时指出。 第一个转型，是中国外贸产业的结构转型，成效非常显著。上半年，机电产品出口7.8万亿元，增长9.5%，占出口总值的60%。从数 据中就可以看到，传统的劳动密集型产业不再是主导地位，"中国制造"向"中国智造"的转型正逐步完成。 (2)市场结构转型：从"单极依赖"到"多元突围" 全球贸易的"压力测试"，实则为中国外贸企业品牌出海撕开了精准切口：当欧美市场陷入波动，"一带一路"沿线对中国高端制造、 绿色技术的需求却在暴增，中国商品的高品质与高性价比在全球是不可或缺的…… 小渔夫联合创始人何孔.ICEE广州跨博会观点分享 市场正如何孔的观点所料，中国上半年的出口数据呈现出逆势上扬的总态势。 一、上半年出口逆势增长 7月14日上午，海关总署公布的上半年进出口数据令人瞩目：2025年上半年，我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元，同比增长2.9%；而 出口达到13万亿元，同比增长7.2%，创下历史同期新高。 在重重压力之下，中国外贸展现出了 ...

Group 1 - China's foreign trade has shown a clear upward trend in 2023, with total import and export volume reaching a historical high of 20 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.5% in Q2, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from Q1 [1] - The China Export-Import Bank has provided significant financial support to foreign trade, issuing over 610 billion yuan in loans and 47 billion yuan in themed financial bonds in the first half of the year, focusing on supporting private and small to medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [1][2] Group 2 - Private enterprises have become the largest foreign trade operators in China, with their import and export scale exceeding 12 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 57.3% of the total foreign trade volume [2] - The China Export-Import Bank has introduced a special plan to enhance financial support for private enterprises, including 16 specific measures to facilitate their international trade and participation in the Belt and Road Initiative [2] Group 3 - The Jinjiang Land Port in Fujian has become a crucial hub for small and micro foreign trade enterprises, with the China Export-Import Bank providing financial support to enhance supply chain services and expand overseas markets [3][4] - The bank has innovated financial service models to assist small and micro foreign trade enterprises, including risk-sharing loan products and direct lending solutions [4] Group 4 - The establishment of an overseas warehouse project by Shanghai Yashi in Kazakhstan aims to enhance logistics and trade capabilities, with the China Export-Import Bank providing long-term financing to support its development [5] - The bank's financial support covers the entire lifecycle of projects, from construction to stable operation, addressing the diverse financial needs of new foreign trade models such as overseas warehouses and cross-border e-commerce [6]

图为在宁波"阳明文化研习营"活动中，两岸青年了解阳明文化。 中新社记者 刘子琳摄 "以前对大陆的认识更多是抽象的数字，比如GDP增速、市场规模，但这次在平安银行实习，我亲手处 理了跨境金融业务，亲眼见证了大湾区企业的融资需求。"辅仁大学统计信息学系学生庄昀臻近日在广 东广州实习后表示。 "首来族"常常发现大陆和想象中大不相同。"来到这里后，我发现广州这座大都市一点都不冷漠，充满 着人情味。"来自东吴大学法律系的林冠瑜同学说，她将在广东红棉律师事务所实习，努力提高法律文 件撰写、客户沟通与案例分析等能力。 重来大陆的台生，也往往有意料之外的惊喜。来自树德科技大学金融管理系的刘言梁同学8年前曾来过 广州。他说，广州的发展速度让他惊叹。希望通过在浦发银行的实习机会，深入了解大陆的金融市场和 就业环境。 实习实践为深入了解提供契机。在广州，台湾大学生走进玉山银行、红棉律师事务所等机构，近距离观 察粤港澳大湾区金融与法律行业的运作模式；在浙江宁波，他们来到豪雅进出口集团、美康盛德医学检 验所，感受外贸企业与现代医疗技术的创新活力；在上海，科技社团组织台生观摩智能网联汽车中心， 帮助他们了解大陆在科技研发领域的最新成果。 ...

Core Insights - The landscape of foreign trade cities in China is undergoing significant changes, with the top 50 cities contributing 80% of the national foreign trade volume, totaling 17.57 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [1][5][6] - 32 cities outperformed the national average growth rate of 2.9%, while 11 cities experienced negative growth, indicating a reshaping of the competitive dynamics among these cities [1][5] Group 1: Top Performers - Shenzhen emerged as the leading foreign trade city with an import-export volume of 4.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, surpassing Shanghai's 4.27 trillion yuan [5][6] - Dongguan reclaimed its position as the "fifth foreign trade city" with a total import-export volume of 7492.79 billion yuan, growing by 16.5% [7][8] - Jinhua made significant strides, moving up to the eighth position with an import-export volume of 5086.79 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.1% [8] Group 2: Emerging Cities - Yantai and Dalian surpassed Foshan in the rankings, with import-export volumes of 2534.64 billion yuan and 2350.11 billion yuan, respectively, while Foshan faced a decline of 9.0% [9][13] - Hefei's import-export volume reached 2051.72 billion yuan, growing by 22.8%, allowing it to rise in the rankings [13] - The rapid growth of new industries, particularly in electric vehicles and high-tech products, has been a key driver for cities like Hefei and Dongguan [13][14] Group 3: Notable Growth Rates - Fangchenggang and Zhengzhou recorded the highest growth rates among the top 50 foreign trade cities, with increases of 41.4% and 38.7%, respectively [14][15] - Fangchenggang's import-export volume reached 741.1 billion yuan, with exports growing 1.7 times [15] - Yili's import-export volume increased by 24.8%, allowing it to enter the top 50 foreign trade cities [16][20]

中新网兰州7月22日电 (记者丁思)"通过推进智慧海关建设，铜精矿入厂周转从18天缩到8天左右，通关 时间从5天至10天压缩到平均30小时；企业节约物流等成本已超1亿元；一线作业人员从4-5人减到2 人。"22日，兰州海关综合业务一处处长、二级巡视员张军在兰州与媒体分享了这组数据，他说，智慧 海关建设推出的系列举措，真正为企业减负增效，带来了实实在在的便利。 甘肃酒泉的种子搭乘中欧班列扎根欧洲，陇南中药材依托"甘农外贸通"走进中亚，酒泉光伏组件经陆海 新通道运往南亚……近年来，兰州海关通过实施"纾困、畅通、赋能"三大工程，以"关长送政策上门"等 定制化服务，助力甘肃民营企业在共建"一带一路"中扬帆远航。 张军介绍说，"大家关注的'甘农外贸通'小程序，上线后通过和甘肃省农业农村厅等部门合作推广，已 经培训了全省160多家农产品企业。我们还根据企业反馈不断优化，新增了菜豆、番茄等种子出口欧 盟、美日的附加声明规范表述，优化了界面和加载速度，从质量、效率、便利化各环节发力，推动'甘 味'产品出口既能增量、更能提质。" "以前是我们追着市场跑，现在是市场等着我们发货。"甘肃陇南文县嘉诚农副产品有限公司负责人坦 言，正 ...

前两天，上半年的经济数据陆续公布。 多数人的关注点，都是GDP的增长数据，但我的关注点却是另外两组数据。 首先是 广义货币M2 的数据。 上半年M2余额330.29万亿元，同比增长了8.3%，比上月高0.4个百分点，比上年同期高2.1个百分点。 简而言之，上半年社会上的钱，是越来越多。 另一组数据是 物价指数 。 CPI通Z回升至0.1%，环比稍微回暖了一点，比之前的负数好一点，但依然不高； PPI通Z为-3.6%，连续第3个月回落。 简而言之，市场上的钱是多了，但是物价依然没上涨，没有通Z。 这就引出了当下一个很重要的问题： 为什么市场上的钱越来越多，但物价没有上涨？资产价格也没有上涨呢？ 那么多的钱，没流向商品，又没流向资产。 那这些钱到底去了哪里？ 难道真的像很多人分析的那样，钱全部都被老百姓存起来了？ 恐怕没有那么简单。 为什么说放出来的钱全被老百姓存起来这个说法不够准确？ 因为 市场上新增的货币，主要是通过银行贷款放出来的。 居民想要拿到这些新放出来的钱， 只能通过贷款。 但是上半年居民贷款余额只增加了1.17万亿元，而M2增加了16.76万亿。 居民贷款量大概只占M2增量的7%。 新放的水， 多数 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou's foreign trade environment is becoming increasingly efficient, supporting companies like Miniso in expanding their international markets [1][5] - The city's foreign trade import and export total reached 605.05 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 15.5% year-on-year increase, a historical high for the same period [2][7] Group 1: Trade Expansion Initiatives - Guangzhou is leveraging exhibition resources to accelerate companies' overseas expansion, with over 200 local enterprises participating in the 2025 Asia Fashion (Thailand) exhibition, resulting in over 20,000 intended orders [3] - The 137th Canton Fair saw over 900 participating enterprises from Guangzhou, generating an intended transaction amount of 2.7 billion USD, a record high [3] - The city is providing substantial support for enterprises participating in over 300 overseas exhibitions in 2025, offering up to 80% subsidies for booth fees [3] Group 2: Export Growth - In the first half of the year, exports of Guangzhou's self-owned brand electromechanical products grew by 14%, integrated manufacturing technology exports surged by 51%, and clothing exports increased by 19% [4] - The cross-border e-commerce "9610" export model has effectively boosted the export of traditional advantageous products such as clothing, bags, and small appliances [4] Group 3: Policy and Infrastructure Improvements - Guangzhou's "Yiqi Xing" enterprise service initiative has conducted over 50 policy briefings, serving more than 4,000 enterprises and enhancing government-enterprise interaction [5] - The city has implemented four nationally pioneering measures to facilitate trade, including a new cross-border e-commerce export model and a global data service platform for battery-powered goods [6] - The establishment of the "Sui-Hong Kong Automobile Export Fast Track" has significantly reduced the vehicle registration wait time from 14 to 3 working days [5] Group 4: Trade Statistics - In the first half of the year, Guangzhou's bonded logistics imports and exports reached 56.65 billion yuan, a growth of 29.9% [7] - Trade with the European Union amounted to 105.24 billion yuan, increasing by 30.5%, while trade with ASEAN reached 101.91 billion yuan, up by 36.7% [7] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative totaled 282.41 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 26.2% [7]

Core Insights - Guangdong's GDP grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a steady growth trend [2] - The growth is attributed to both opportunities and challenges in the global market, particularly the emergence of DeepSeek and the unpredictable U.S. tariff policies [4][9] Economic Performance - The new momentum industries, including AI and humanoid robots, have shown rapid growth [5] - Guangdong's foreign trade reached 4.55 trillion yuan in the first six months, a 4% increase compared to the same period last year, outpacing the national growth rate by 1.1 percentage points [10] - Exports amounted to 2.89 trillion yuan, maintaining positive growth, with private enterprises accounting for 64.2% of the total trade value [10] Sector Contributions - High-tech products have significantly contributed to the economic landscape, with notable advancements in robotics [7] - The retail sector saw a steady increase, with total retail sales growing by 3.5% year-on-year, driven by effective policies like the trade-in program [10] - The tourism industry experienced growth, with passenger traffic and turnover increasing by 4.0% and 6.5%, respectively, during the Spring Festival [12] Future Outlook - The resilience and vitality of Guangdong's economy are attributed to its solid industrial foundation and adaptability [12] - With the implementation of policies aimed at promoting industrial innovation, Guangdong's economy is expected to have support, confidence, and growth potential in the second half of 2025 [12]

接下来，呼和浩特海关将以中蒙AEO（海关高级认证企业）互认安排正式实施为契机，进一步加大对 内蒙古AEO企业培育力度，扩大中蒙AEO互认实施享惠面。严格规范涉企行政检查，今年计划压减管 理类核查作业30%以上，最大限度实现"无事不扰"，减少干预企业经营。（内蒙古日报） 从呼和浩特海关获悉，今年上半年，内蒙古民营外贸企业进出口值达796.1亿元，占全区外贸进出口总 值的78.6%，成为内蒙古外贸主力军。截至今年6月底，内蒙古民营外贸企业达到1.8万家，占全区进出 口企业总量的97%。 ...

反内卷对利率中枢影响如何？20250720 摘要 反内卷政策作为一种综合治理手段，对供给侧和需求侧均产生影响，与 传统的供给侧结构性改革相比，更注重短期见效，但其长期效果和对经 济的深远影响仍需持续观察。 当前市场价格竞争失效，主要原因是市场结构转变为垄断竞争，降价难 以有效刺激需求增长。企业更多依赖营销手段，如明星代言和自媒体带 货，来创造需求，导致销售费用成为影响生产数量的关键因素。 内卷的根源在于个体生产规模与有效生产规模之间的差距迅速缩小，企 业为创造需求投入大量销售费用，导致利润压力增大，甚至出现亏本冲 量的现象，使得内卷从螺旋上升转为螺旋下降。 内卷对产品和服务质量的影响分为三个阶段：初期质量提升，中期质量 下降，后期质量降级。过度营销导致"柠檬市场"格局，企业减少研发 投入，产品质量受到影响，部分领域出现数字化退潮现象。 反内卷政策旨在引导企业摆脱销售费用白热化和缓解价格竞争，初期可 能导致利润转移，但长期来看，通过供给侧结构性调整，有望对整体经 济产生积极影响，并可能提升企业部门的盈利增速与资产回报率。 Q&A 反内卷政策的逻辑是什么？与供给侧结构性改革有何异同？ 反内卷政策的核心逻辑是防止内 ...