Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Short - term drivers are limited, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if raw material supply is poor, rubber prices are expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 16, prices of various natural rubber varieties showed different changes, with the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai rising 50 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase. The basis of whole latex increased by 6.98%. Other varieties also had corresponding price and basis changes [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan to - 10 yuan/ton, a - 166.67% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 yuan to 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, a 100% increase [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a - 0.43% change; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a - 4.30% change. China's production increased by 122,000 tons to 113,700 tons. The weekly开工 rates of semi - steel and full - steel automobile tires increased significantly. Domestic tire production in August increased by 8.59 million to 102.954 million, a 9.10% increase. Tire exports decreased by 364,000 to 6.301 million, a - 5.46% change. Natural rubber imports increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, a 9.68% increase [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 456,525 tons, a - 1.01% change; the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 705 tons to 41,329 tons, a - 1.68% change [2]. Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Currently, there is no obvious driver in the supply and demand of logs. The near - month 11 - contract has insufficient willingness of long - positions to take delivery, and the far - month 01 - contract is relatively strong. The external quotation is firm, while the spot price has limited upward momentum. The 11 - contract is approaching the delivery month and may face greater pressure from hedging positions. The overall inventory is low, and the market may mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, the log 2511 contract closed at 797 yuan/cubic meter, up 4 yuan. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - **Supply**: This week, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive, 6 more than last week; the total arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from last week. The daily average log delivery volume was 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters from last week [4]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The overall trend is weakening, with factory and intermediate - level inventories increasing. Supply is in excess, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level in the medium term. The market should follow macro - level fluctuations and the production - load adjustment of soda - ash plants. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. - **Glass**: The market is sluggish during the peak season, with fundamental oversupply. Deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions for now and pay attention to spot - purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers in the medium term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation decreased by 10 yuan to 1,210 yuan, a - 0.82% change; the glass 2505 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1,284 yuan, a 1.34% increase. The 05 basis decreased by 27 yuan to - 74 yuan, a - 57.45% change [5]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation remained at 1,300 yuan; the soda - ash 2505 contract increased by 6 yuan to 1,325 yuan, a 0.45% increase. The 05 basis decreased by 6 yuan to - 25 yuan, a - 31.58% change [5]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash well - working rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and the weekly soda - ash production increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, a 3.37% increase. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, a 1.16% increase [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass end - user inventory increased by 346,900 heavy - boxes to 6.2824 million heavy - boxes, a 5.84% increase; the soda - ash factory inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase [5]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year change of new construction area was - 0.09%, an improvement of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Industrial silicon supply increases, putting pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to trade in a low - level range, mainly between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, long positions can be considered [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 15, the prices of various industrial - silicon varieties remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan to 830 yuan, a - 5.68% change [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan to 90 yuan, a 400% increase; the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 375 yuan, a 2.60% increase [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the national industrial - silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase; the national开工 rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a - 5.78% change [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 108,600 tons, a 2.07% increase; the social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 545,000 tons [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, focus on whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, polysilicon is mainly in high - level fluctuations. Supply pressure increases, which may lead to price pressure, but if the spot is firm, the downside support is still strong [7]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained at 52,750 yuan/ton; the N - type material basis decreased by 875 yuan to 1,885 yuan, a - 31.70% change [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 875 yuan to 20,800 yuan, a 1.75% increase; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 110 yuan [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 0.95 GW to 12.83 GW, a - 6.89% change; monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a - 1.29% change [7]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 14,000 tons to 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase; silicon - wafer inventory increased by 55,000 tons to 167,800 tons, a 3.39% increase [7].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's polysilicon imports in August 2025, with a volume of 0.1 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 77.8% [1] - The import value for the same period was $0.26 million, which reflects a year-on-year drop of 75.7% [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a notable trend in the polysilicon market [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global market turmoil was triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China on October 10, 2025, leading to sharp drops in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [11]. - The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting, and economic data release affected [12]. - China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing continued improvement in the manufacturing sector, while the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month [15][16]. - Metal prices were generally affected by macro - events. Copper prices are expected to adjust in the short - term but remain optimistic in the long - run; aluminum prices may face short - term pressure; zinc prices are likely to remain weakly volatile; lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range; nickel prices are subject to supply uncertainties; tin prices are supported by supply tightness and demand recovery; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in a wait - and - see state; and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Global Market Flash Crash**: On the night of October 10, Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China led to a global market sell - off. US stocks, crude oil, metal futures, and cryptocurrencies all tumbled. The US will raise the tariff on Chinese goods to 130% and implement key software export controls on November 1 [11]. - **US Government "Shutdown"**: The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting. The Department of Labor's data release was affected, and high - frequency economic data was difficult to obtain [12]. - **China's Economic Data**: China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6%. The central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, the 11th consecutive monthly increase [15][16]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic data in September was generally weak. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000; the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month; and the ISM services PMI was 50, significantly lower than expected [19][20][21] 3.2 Metal Market Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. After Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia in late September, prices rose significantly but were limited by weak demand. On October 10, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, copper prices dropped sharply [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly volatile and may adjust further. However, in the long - run, the supply - demand balance remains tight, and prices are likely to stabilize after the short - term adjustment. It is recommended to reduce long - position holdings to avoid short - term risks [2] Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. The price of Guinea's bauxite decreased, and the alumina market was under pressure. Trump's tariff signal led to short - term pressure on aluminum prices [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Although short - term prices may continue to decline, the demand peak season remains unchanged, and downstream开工 rates are expected to rise. It is recommended that long - position holders pay attention to risk avoidance and monitor the development of events [2] Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices rose and then fell. The weak US employment data increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in zinc prices. However, the overall terminal consumption was weak [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic refined zinc output is expected to remain high, but demand is weak. It is expected that zinc prices will remain weakly volatile, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based short - biased trading [2] Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices oscillated horizontally. The domestic lead supply showed a downward trend, and the price recovered after a sharp drop. However, due to the new round of Sino - US trade confrontation, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations [2]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will oscillate within the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based trading [2] Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices oscillated within a range. The new RKAB approval policy in Indonesia has brought uncertainties to the nickel ore market. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside potential [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see or moderately hold short positions at high prices. The main contract of nickel is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, range - based trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3] Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are showing signs of recovery. However, the short - term tariff increase expectation has a negative impact on prices [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to conduct range - based trading, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 11 contract being 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated widely, and polycrystalline silicon prices oscillated at high levels. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon showed different trends, and the photovoltaic industry's anti - involution policy has not been implemented [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Given the current supply - demand expectations for October, it is recommended to wait and see until the policy becomes clear [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Lithium carbonate prices oscillated horizontally. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good. However, there are risks related to mining permits [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The contradiction between macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesia, will put pressure on nickel prices [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro and real - world factors are jointly pressuring prices, but the cost floor limits the downside elasticity. It is expected to oscillate weakly next week [5]. - Industrial silicon: Inventory has shifted to accumulation, and there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. The supply is expected to exceed demand, and the trading strategy is to sell high [27][32]. - Polysilicon: A weekend industry meeting was held, and policy logic still exists. There are policy expectations, and investors can look for buying opportunities after the market sentiment is released [27][33]. - Lithium carbonate: Macro factors are suppressing prices, and it is expected to operate weakly. The price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton [62][65]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation are pressuring prices. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals have marginally improved, the inventory accumulation contradiction in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase uncertainties [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Macro and real - world factors are pressuring demand, and the cost provides a floor. However, the short - term price may oscillate weakly due to factors such as production capacity and inventory [5]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: Chinese refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [8]. - **New energy**: There were changes in the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines in October [8]. - **Nickel - stainless steel**: SMM nickel - iron inventory was stable in September, and stainless - steel factory and social inventories changed [8]. Market News - Indonesia has taken measures such as taking over part of the WBN park and suspending the production of some mining companies, which may affect nickel - ore supply [9]. - The US may impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1, which may impact stainless - steel exports [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - **Industrial silicon**: The futures price oscillated, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 silicon price was 8,850 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the Inner Mongolia 99 silicon price was 9,000 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price declined, and the spot price was stable, with the Friday closing price at 48,965 yuan/ton [27]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial silicon**: Supply: Xinjiang factories are resuming production, and Southwest China may reduce production in the future. October production is expected to increase to 440,000 tons. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and silicone support consumption, but overall demand improvement is limited [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply: Production is expected to increase in October and then decline. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Silicon - wafer production is expected to decrease in October, and the next restocking is expected in mid - October [29][31]. Market Outlook - **Industrial silicon**: The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the trading strategy is to sell high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt volume [32]. - **Polysilicon**: There are policy expectations. After the market sentiment is released, look for buying opportunities. Focus on the restocking situation in mid - October [33]. Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - The futures contract price oscillated. The 2511 contract closed at 72,740 yuan/ton (down 1,300 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the 2601 contract closed at 72,900 yuan/ton (down 1,100 yuan/ton week - on - week). The spot price was 73,550 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [62]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Weekly production reached a new high of 20,635 tons. Zangge Mining obtained new mining rights [63]. - **Demand**: The short - term spot market is strong, but macro - level export controls and potential US tariffs may impact demand [63]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased to 134,800 tons, with upstream inventory accumulating during the holiday and downstream and trading - link inventory decreasing [63]. Market Outlook - The price is expected to operate weakly, with the futures price in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to focus on positive spreads for cross - period trading and increase the proportion of selling hedging [65][66][67].

Macroeconomic and Industry Insights - In August, the Ministry of Finance reported corporate income tax revenue of 31,477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Personal income tax revenue reached 10,547 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1] - Vehicle purchase tax revenue was 1,334 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 17.7% [1] - Stamp duty revenue totaled 2,844 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including securities transaction stamp duty revenue of 1,187 billion yuan, which surged by 81.7% year-on-year [1] Commodity Market Updates - Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decrease by 8.05% from September 1-15, 2025, with a yield drop of 6.94% and an oil extraction rate decline of 0.21% [1] - The expected export volume for palm oil is 404,688 tons, down 24.7% compared to the same period last month [1] - Coking coal auction prices in Linfen market showed mixed results, with 290,000 tons sold and an average price increase of 54 yuan/ton for 7 companies, while 4 companies experienced an average price drop of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate index price at 73,116 yuan/ton, up 281 yuan/ton; average price at 73,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [1] - The average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials was 53,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57% [1] - The average price for n-type granular silicon was 49,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.13% increase [1] Production Data - In August 2025, China's alumina production reached 7.925 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - Cumulative alumina production from January to August was 60.523 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - China's electrolytic aluminum production in August was 3.800 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - Cumulative electrolytic aluminum production from January to August was 30.138 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - In August, China's copper product production was 2.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - Cumulative refined copper production from January to August was 9.891 million tons, up 10.1% year-on-year [1] Market Predictions - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000 per ounce and silver price forecast to $45 per ounce [1] - As of September 15, total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased to 13.089 million barrels, with reductions in light, medium, and heavy oil inventories [1] - Attention is drawn to the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision scheduled for the evening of September 17 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report This report provides trend forecasts and analysis of fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It also presents macro and industry news and calculates the trend strength of each commodity. The overall view is that most commodities will show a trend of range - bound or volatile fluctuations, and some commodities will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relations, macro - economic policies, and international news [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to have a downward revision of non - farm employment, with a trend strength of 0, and prices may be affected by the Fed's interest rate decision [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Before the Fed's decision, prices will be cautious, with a trend strength of 0. The industry has major events such as mergers and production changes [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will have a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Lacks obvious driving forces, and prices will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will experience range - bound fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Will have a range - bound shock; Alumina will grind the bottom in a shock; Casting aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel will have a game between long - and short - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Will fluctuate, and the increase in supply restricts the upward space, with a trend strength of 0 [2][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices; Polysilicon requires attention to market information, with a trend strength of 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [2][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of - 1 [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment is back, and both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of 0 [2][55][56]. - **Log**: Will fluctuate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. Others - **LPG**: Will have a short - term narrow - range and relatively strong shock [2][50]. - **Propylene**: Will operate weakly at a high level in the short term [2][50]. - **PVC**: Will have a wide - range shock [2][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: Will rebound following crude oil and have a short - term adjustment trend; Low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market will rise slightly [2][54]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The contract in October will operate under pressure; Contracts in December and February will have a wide - range shock [2][55]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weak trend [2][58]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Will fluctuate at a low level [2][59]. - **Pure Benzene**: Will fluctuate in the short term and be weak in the fourth quarter [2][61]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, boosted by macro - factors; Soybean oil: US soybeans continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by optimistic trade sentiment, will fluctuate at a low level; Soybean: Will fluctuate [2][64]. - **Corn**: Will fluctuate [2][66]. - **Sugar**: Has a weak basis [2][67]. - **Cotton**: The market focuses on the situation of new cotton listing [2][68]. - **Egg**: The peak season for spot goods is coming to an end, and inventory is still high [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: The policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of spot goods is hard to change [2][71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].

Report Overview - Date: September 4, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The fundamental logic shows a narrow - range oscillation, and news stimulates sentiment [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices are running in a narrow - range oscillation [2] - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market [2] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the logic is to short at high prices [2] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of market news [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,915, down 45 from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 87,549, down 43,080 [5] - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790, down 740. The trading volume is 125,550, down 3,232 [5] Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [6] - Environmental violations were found in Indonesia's IMIP, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [7] - The approved RKAB production in Indonesia in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons, higher than in 2024 [7] - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of all EF lines, expected to affect monthly production by about 1,900 tons of nickel metal [7][8] - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [8] - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance, reducing hot - rolled coil supply [8] - The Indonesian president will crack down on illegal mining [9] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract is 72,080, down 1,200. The trading volume is 94, down 786. The open interest is 5,571, down 2,123 [11] - The closing price of the 2511 contract is 71,880, down 740. The trading volume is 442,800, down 177,641. The open interest is 346,048, down 2,061 [11] - The warehouse receipt volume is 34,118, up 2,111 [11] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton [12] - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, down 19.2% month - on - month and up 4.9% year - on - year [12] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract is 8,490, up 20. The trading volume is 275,841, down 69,772. The open interest is 279,742, down 1,738 [16] - The closing price of the PS2511 contract is 52,160, up 285. The trading volume is 362,759, down 168,019. The open interest is 149,210, up 3,355 [16] - Industrial silicon social inventory is 54.1 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.5 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 25.2 million tons [16] - Polysilicon factory inventory is 21.3 million tons [16] Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia's Wulatezhongqi plans to invest 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 22 billion yuan during the 15th Five - Year Plan in new energy projects [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]