今日早参 2026 年 1 月 30 日 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 樊俊豪 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 房地产开发/房地产服务：四个维度驱动地产股估值修复 近期 AH 地产股表现跑赢大盘指数，1 月 19-29 日 Wind 香港房地产指数上涨 7.3%，行业排名 3/11，A 股申万房地产指数上涨 5.5%，行业排名 6/31。我 们认为低估值和多维驱动是此次地产股估值修复的动力。展望后市，我们认 为港股流动性宽松、板块低估值、地产基本面边际改善预期是这轮地产股修 复的底色，当前到 3 月份是政策和"小阳春"共振的窗口期，政策预期和市 场回暖迹象都有助于地产股估值持续修复。 风险提示：政策波动风险，基本面复苏不及预期风险，部分房企经营风险。 研报发布日期：2026-01-30 金控研究部负责人暨可选消费首席研 究员 邮箱：fanjunhao@htsc.com 研究员 陈慎 SAC:S0570519010002 SFC:BIO834 戚康 ...

Core Insights - By 2025, consumer spending in China is projected to contribute over 50% to economic growth, reaching 52%, with consumption becoming the main driver of economic growth and stability [1] Group 1: Consumer Policy and Trends - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy will be optimized this year, promoting the expansion and upgrading of goods consumption, including nationwide unified subsidy standards for automobile scrapping and replacement, as well as six categories of key home appliance upgrades [3] - New generation smart devices, such as smart glasses and smart home products, will be included in the subsidy range [4] - The focus of appliance subsidies will shift towards first-level energy efficiency products, while automotive subsidies will favor new energy vehicles [5] Group 2: Consumer Sales Data - In 2025, the retail sales of goods from key enterprises are expected to grow by 3.4% compared to the previous year, with an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points, largely benefiting from the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [6] - Since the implementation of the old-for-new policy in 2024, consumer goods sales have reached 3.92 trillion yuan, benefiting 494 million consumers, with 18.3 million vehicles replaced under the program, nearly 60% of which are new energy vehicles [8] Group 3: Service Consumption Growth - In 2026, there will be an acceleration in cultivating new growth points in service consumption, aiming to release the potential of service consumption [10] - The "Buy in China" series of activities will continue to be organized to build the "Buy in China" brand, focusing on creating distinctive service consumption brands in areas such as sports, performing arts, tourism, and winter sports [11] - The retail sales of services are expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, with per capita spending on service consumption increasing by 4.5% [15] Group 4: Expert Insights - The shift in consumer behavior from primarily goods consumption to a combination of goods and services consumption indicates a new phase in China's consumption structure, which is expected to inject sustained and strong momentum into high-quality economic development [17] - The upgrade in service consumption signifies a transition from meeting basic needs to pursuing high-quality living and personalized experiences, driving innovation in consumption scenarios [18]

文章认为，2025年，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.7%，高于上年的3.5%，主要得益于以旧换新政策的拉动作用。然 而，考虑到以旧换新补贴规模较上年翻倍，实际效果不及预期。进入下半年，受基数明显抬升、补贴规模减少、透支 效应显现等影响，商品零售增速大幅回落。相比之下，服务零售额同比增长5.5%，且连续四个月回升，呈改善态势。 展望2026年，文章提出，考虑到上半年面临高基数效应，以及国补规模缩减、收入增长承压等因素，商品消费面临压 力。同时，就业和收入增长放缓、房地产财富缩水、消费信心偏弱三重制约仍未扭转，服务消费改善趋势存在不确定 性。预计社会消费品零售增速将达到3%左右，低于2025，但在政策拉动下，服务消费表现可能超预期。 文章还建议，加大逆周期政策（尤其是财政政策）力度，比如支持服务消费、推动房地产市场企稳，同时强化消费率 和物价上升的目标导向，推进结构性改革，打通增长堵点、培育内生动能，真正将经济发展模式从出口转向内需、从 投资转向消费为主导的增长模式上来。 【环球网财经综合报道】江苏省日前发布通知，明确2026年将持续推进大规模设备更新、优化实施消费品以旧换新。 在优化实施消费品以旧换新方面，汽车 ...

在北京2026重点工作中，大力促消费仍是重中之重。 最新的政府工作报告提到，今年将研究制定城乡居民增收政策，增强居民消费能力。与中央经济工作会 议一脉相承，要破解消费堵点，让居民能消费、敢消费、愿消费，收入是第一道关口。 这也是为何中央经济工作会议，不仅将"坚持内需主导、建设强大国内市场"列为2026年八大重点任务之 首，还首次明确要求"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"。 增收之外，报告还给出了"大力提振消费"的路线图和方法论。聚焦商品消费和服务消费，不仅要存量， 更要增量。 商品消费优化商业载体布局，提升传统商圈综合品质，补齐社区、特色街区便民服务短板。促进商品消 费扩容提质，优化"两新"政策实施，落实绿色消费推进行动，支持汽车、家电等大宗消费，推动"老字 号"焕发新活力。 一次打卡、一场演出、一次赛事、一个展览……演艺、赛事、展会吸引的往往是异地消费，带动住宿、 餐饮、零售一整个链条。 首都文商旅体展资源丰富，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，成为文商旅体展深度融合的有 利契机。 文商旅体展融合之下，首店经济、首发经济、夜间经济串联成面，背后的乘数效应不可小觑。让不同场 景擦出火花，意味着更多消费空间的释 ...

商品消费扩围提质，服务消费繁荣发展，消费场景不断创新……2025年，我国消费总体呈现平稳发展态 势，消费市场的规模和质量实现双提升，消费对经济发展的主引擎作用持续发挥。 商品消费潜力持续释放 "2025年，全国商务系统大力推进提振消费专项行动，深入实施消费品以旧换新，推动服务消费高质量 发展，组织开展'购在中国'系列活动，持续释放消费潜力。"商务部市场运行和消费促进司司长杨沐介 绍说。 在商品消费方面，2025年，消费品以旧换新带动汽车、家电、手机等相关产品销售额2.61万亿元，惠及 3.66亿人次。受政策带动，大宗耐用商品消费较快增长，相关商品如限额以上单位家电、通讯器材、家 具零售额分别增长11%、20.9%和14.6%，乘用车零售量增加3.8%。 （来源：工人日报） "全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，达到50.1万亿元，增长3.7%；消费对经济增长的贡献率 达到52%，提高5个百分点。"今天，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍2025年商务工作及运行情况。会上，商 务部副部长鄢东用一组数据呈现出2025年提振消费的进展和成效。 今年，如何进一步提振消费？杨沐表示，商务部将优化实施消费品以旧换新，促进汽车 ...

Core Conclusion - This week, broad-based ETFs experienced concentrated redemptions, and the inflow of leveraged funds slowed down, leading the market into a phase of volatility and consolidation [1][5] - Historically, signals indicating the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, unexpected external shocks, and deteriorating fundamentals [2][6] - Current policies aim to support market stability and growth, suggesting that the spring rally is not over, with a balanced structural allocation recommended, particularly favoring technology and AI applications, while also paying attention to cyclical sectors, real estate, and consumer services [1][5][7] Market Liquidity and ETF Redemptions - Recent changes in A-share liquidity show marginal shifts, with the minimum margin requirement for financing raised from 80% to 100%, resulting in a slowdown of leveraged fund inflows [1][6] - Broad-based ETFs have seen significant net redemptions, totaling over 500 billion since mid-January, with the CSI 300 index ETF experiencing net redemptions of 325.9 billion and the CSI 1000 index ETF seeing 81.9 billion in redemptions [1][6] Historical Context of Spring Rallies - The end of spring rallies is often signaled by substantial policy tightening, as seen in historical examples such as the increase in stamp duty in May 2007 and regulatory changes in March 2017 [2][6] - External shocks, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, have also led to abrupt market declines [2][6] - Deteriorating fundamentals, such as lower-than-expected economic targets or industrial profit growth, can contribute to the end of spring rallies [2][6] Future Market Outlook - Current policies remain supportive, with liquidity still relatively abundant, and industry and thematic ETF subscriptions remain active despite the increase in margin requirements [7] - The ongoing spring rally is viewed as part of a broader bull market that began in 2024, with expectations for further policy support to boost macroeconomic performance [3][7] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, is expected to remain a key focus, with opportunities also present in value sectors such as resources and real estate [3][7]

Market Overview - Recent broad-based ETFs have seen significant redemptions, with a total net redemption exceeding 500 billion yuan since mid-January, including 325.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 300 index ETF and 81.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 1000 index ETF[1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has decreased from 4 trillion yuan on January 14 to 2.8 trillion yuan, with a slight recovery to 3.1 trillion yuan on the last Friday[1] Signals of Market Correction - Historical signals indicating the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, external shocks, and deteriorating fundamentals[2] - Notable past instances include the May 2007 increase in stamp duty from 0.1% to 0.3%, which marked the end of that year's rally, and the March 2017 regulatory tightening on bank "entrusted" business[2] Current Policy Environment - The current policy aims to support market stability, with liquidity remaining relatively abundant despite recent tightening measures, such as raising the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%[3] - Industry and thematic ETFs continue to see positive subscriptions, with over 50 billion yuan in net subscriptions this week, indicating ongoing investor interest[3] Future Market Outlook - The spring rally is not yet concluded, with potential for further upward movement as the current market environment is still conducive to growth, despite short-term fluctuations[3] - The maximum index increase during historical spring rallies typically exceeds 20%, while the current rally has only achieved a maximum increase of 9.8% since December 17, indicating room for growth[3] Investment Strategy - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, remains a key focus for investment, with recommendations to explore specific sub-sectors benefiting from AI implementation[3] - Value sectors, such as real estate and certain resource commodities, also present potential investment opportunities, alongside a short-term focus on service consumption[3]

Core Conclusions - The report indicates that the recent market has entered a phase of consolidation due to significant redemptions in broad-based ETFs and a slowdown in leveraged capital inflows, leading to liquidity fluctuations [1][12] - Historical signals for the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, unexpected external shocks, and deteriorating fundamental trends [2][18] - Current policies are aimed at supporting market stability, suggesting that the spring rally is not over, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended, particularly emphasizing technology and AI applications, while also considering cyclical sectors like real estate and consumer services [3][26] Market Trends - Recent changes in liquidity have been noted, with a significant net redemption of over 500 billion yuan in broad-based ETFs since mid-January, including 325.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 300 index ETF and 81.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 1000 index ETF [1][17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has decreased from 4 trillion yuan on January 14 to 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling market sentiment [12][13] Historical Context - The report reviews past instances where spring rallies ended, highlighting that substantial policy tightening is a core reason, with examples from 2007 and 2017 where policy changes led to market downturns [2][18] - External shocks, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2021 Fed rate hikes, have also historically triggered the end of spring rallies [19][24] - Deteriorating fundamentals, as seen in 2012 and 2023, can lead to market corrections when economic data fails to meet expectations [19][21] Policy Environment - The current policy environment remains supportive, with liquidity still relatively abundant despite recent ETF redemptions, and the adjustment of margin requirements has not led to significant outflows of leveraged capital [3][25] - The report suggests that the ongoing spring rally has room for further development, with the potential for macroeconomic support from upcoming policy measures aimed at stimulating demand [26][27] Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, is identified as a key focus area for investment, with recommendations to pay attention to specific sub-sectors where AI is being implemented [3][28] - Value sectors, including real estate and resource commodities, are also highlighted as having potential investment opportunities, alongside a short-term focus on service consumption [3][28]

专题：投资好时节 嘉实基金2026投资策略峰会 1月23日，嘉实基金2026年度投资策略峰会在上海举行。嘉实基金大消费研究总监吴越参加圆桌对话 《"反内卷与扩内需"政策驱动下的行业机遇》，对"扩内需"政策下的消费市场演变有着敏锐的洞察。他 明确指出，消费行业已步入关键转折点，当前正处于值得重点布局的关键期。 谈及消费行业现状及周期属性，吴越表示，消费板块已连续近五年下行，市场情绪持续低迷，或将孕育 高赔率投资机会。从周期规律来看，消费作为宏观经济中后周期资产，其复苏核心依赖企业盈利改善与 居民收入提升；消费股则多在牛市下半场发力，伴随居民财富效应释放，推动高端消费与服务消费需求 升级。他进一步预判，2026年有望重现消费投资机遇，当前正处于十年维度大周期反转的起点，市场情 绪低迷"人迹罕至"之时，正是布局窗口期。 其核心逻辑源于政策驱动，尤其是2025年3月出台的《提振消费专项行动方案》中的七条意见。其中最 具突破性的变化在于首次明确提出"扩大居民财产性收入"，通过稳楼市、稳股市形成财富效应，进而提 振消费。 基于此，吴越表示可以关注三大消费投资方向： 1月23日，嘉实基金2026年度投资策略峰会在上海举行。 ...

从"买商品"到"买体验"，从为"功能"花钱到为"开心"付费，消费活力在"体验"中蓬勃生发。国家统计局 最新数据显示，2025年我国服务零售额比上年增长5.5％，快于商品零售额1.7个百分点。作为服务消费 的重要内容，体验经济和情绪消费规模不断扩大。有机构预测，2029年我国情绪经济市场规模将突破 4.5万亿元，未来空间广阔。 也要看到，消费并非无源之水、无本之木，体验消费也并非建立在虚无缥缈的感觉之上，其基础和载体 仍然是商品与服务。所不同的是，这些商品与服务除了实用价值，还必须包含文化底蕴、审美情趣、精 神满足等体验价值，这实际上对消费供给的内容和品质提出了更高要求。 车窗外，是零下20摄氏度的林海雪原，银装素裹；车窗内，是暖意融融的茶香与欢歌，乘务员带着学剪 窗花……近日，满载400多名旅客、串联起南北多地的"熊猫专列·什邡号"，结束了为期13天的"冰雪之 旅"。这趟融观景、社交、文化感知为一体的沉浸式旅行，顺应人们从"观光式"到"体验式"的需求变 化，催生消费新活力。 "要加快培育服务消费新增长点，支持新业态新模式新场景竞相涌现，增加优质服务供给"，近日召开的 国务院常务会议明确提出一系列促消费举措。落 ...