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(经济观察)消费稳步扩大 中国经济主引擎持续发力
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-10-20 11:50
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China's consumer market is steadily expanding, with a 4.5% year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters, contributing 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year [1][2] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to effective consumption-boosting policies, including the issuance of 300 billion RMB in special bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods [1][2] - The retail sales of household appliances, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment have all seen double-digit growth due to the "old for new" policy, with over 8.3 million applications for car replacements this year [1][2] Group 2 - Service consumption has also accelerated, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.6 percentage points [2] - New consumption models such as instant retail, live streaming sales, and social e-commerce are rapidly growing, with online retail sales increasing by 9.8% year-on-year [2] - Despite the growth in consumption, the retail sales growth rate is still below the overall economic growth rate, indicating a need to enhance consumer willingness [2][3] Group 3 - Future strategies should focus on stabilizing and expanding employment, promoting stable income growth, and enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [3] - There is a call for more systematic and comprehensive measures to stimulate domestic demand and release consumption potential, alongside current consumption-boosting policies [3] - Maintaining economic stability and growth is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and expectations in the face of increasing uncertainties [3]
核心CPI温和上涨,消费向好积极信号|新京报快评
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-10-20 11:05
Core Insights - The article highlights the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in stimulating consumer demand in China, with a focus on the recent economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - In the first three quarters of this year, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, with a notable rise of 1.0% in September, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [2]. - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the previous year, reinforcing its role as a key driver of economic growth [2]. Policy Measures - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" was introduced in March, outlining 30 key tasks across eight areas, including actions to increase residents' income and enhance service consumption [3]. - The government allocated 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support consumption, particularly through trade-in programs, which have led to double-digit growth in retail sales of household appliances and related goods [3]. Retail Performance - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 4.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a significant jump of 20.5% in September, marking a 17.1 percentage point acceleration from August [4]. - The automotive market is also showing signs of recovery, with over 8.3 million trade-in applications for vehicles submitted by September 10, averaging more than 30,000 applications per day [4]. Financial Policies - The central bank has implemented personal consumption loan interest subsidies and support for service industry loans, effectively reducing credit costs for residents and businesses, thereby stimulating consumption potential [4]. - There is a notable shift in consumer spending from goods to services, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, outpacing goods retail sales [4]. Future Considerations - There is a need to solidify the foundation for consumer recovery, focusing on improving residents' income and optimizing income distribution to enhance consumption levels [5]. - Improving consumer expectations is crucial, as it significantly influences consumption decisions, and a coordinated policy framework is essential for maximizing the effectiveness of measures aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [5].
核心CPI温和上涨,消费向好积极信号 | 新京报快评
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-10-20 10:39
▲今年以来,积极的财政政策持续加力,通过以旧换新等方式,"真金白银"地助力居民消费需求释放。 图/新华社 10月20日,国家统计局发布最新经济数据。数据表明,今年前三季度,我国居民消费价格指数(CPI) 同比略降0.1%,但扣除食品和能源的核心CPI上涨0.6%,其中9月份上涨1.0%,涨幅连续5个月扩大,为 近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%。 核心CPI温和上涨,不仅反映了扩内需、促消费的政策成效,也为经济稳定增长提供了动力。今年前三 季度,最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达53.5%,比上年全年提升9.0个百分点,继续发挥经济增长主引 擎作用。 作为拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"之一,消费在稳增长、促民生方面扮演着重要的角色。在当前宏观经济 发展中,消费需求不足已成最核心矛盾之一。而CPI指数长时间在低位甚至负数区间徘徊,使得国民经 济的通缩隐忧初现。 正因为如此,扩大内需、促进消费成为宏观经济政策的核心内容和最重要抓手之一。事实上,9月份 CPI环比季节性上升,同比降幅略有收窄,主要是受益于一系列组合拳政策促消费效应持续显现。 其中智能家电增速超过30%。 汽车消费市场,也日趋活跃。截至9月10日,今年全国汽车以 ...
中国经济秋季报|新业态、新模式、新场景不断拓展 消费“主引擎”作用凸显
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-10-20 08:59
央视网消息:国家统计局发布的前三季度国民经济运行数据显示:消费依旧是经济增长的主引擎,各类新型消费较快发展,市场活力增 强,新业态、新模式、新场景不断拓展。来看亮点梳理。 前三季度,最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达53.5%,比上年全年提升9.0个百分点,继续发挥经济增长主引擎作用。以旧换新政策不断扩 围;服务消费需求持续释放,使得三季度消费活力增强,特别是今年国家发展改革委会同财政部分四批向地方下达了3000亿元超长期特别国债 资金支持消费品以旧换新,以"真金白银"助力居民消费需求释放。 此外,前三季度,高能效等级家电、智能家电零售额持续高速增长。在扩大服务消费系列政策措施带动下,服务消费需求加速释放,有力 拉动消费市场增长。前三季度,服务零售额同比增长5.2%,高于同期商品零售额0.6个百分点。其中,文体休闲服务类、通讯信息服务类、旅 游咨询租赁服务类、交通出行服务类零售额实现两位数增长。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示,持续用力扩大内需,做强国内大循环,进一步激发市场活力,提振发展预期,不断增强内生增长动 能,力促经济持续健康发展。 以旧换新政策带动相关限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家 ...
一户家庭开启智能新生活(“十四五”的发展镜头)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-10-20 00:45
Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing trend of smart home consumption, with an average annual growth rate of 9.6% in service-related consumer spending from 2020 to 2024 [1] Group 1: Smart Home Consumption - Smart home products are becoming essential for modern households, with consumers prioritizing features that enhance convenience and efficiency [1][2] - The sales growth of smart home products is significant, with service robots like vacuum cleaners seeing a 75% increase in sales revenue year-on-year [2] - Consumers are willing to invest in higher-priced smart products, reflecting a shift in spending habits towards technology-driven solutions [1][2] Group 2: Lifestyle Changes - The adoption of smart home technology is leading to improved quality of life, allowing consumers to save time on household chores and engage in other activities [2] - The transition to electric vehicles is also noted, with a 30.1% year-on-year increase in sales, indicating a broader trend towards sustainable consumption [2] - There is a growing trend in service consumption, with consumers increasingly willing to pay for memberships and subscriptions that enhance their lifestyle [2]
商务部召开例行新闻发布会(2025年10月16日)
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-10-16 13:53
Core Points - The Ministry of Commerce is actively promoting service consumption through various initiatives and policies, resulting in a notable increase in service consumption during the recent National Day holiday, with a 7.6% year-on-year growth in daily sales revenue across related industries [2][3] - The Ministry plans to focus on three main areas to further expand service consumption: cultivating new growth points, innovating diverse consumption scenarios, and optimizing service supply [3] Group 1: Service Consumption - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented a series of policies and activities to stimulate service consumption, including the "Service Consumption Season" and "Chinese Cuisine Fair" [2] - During the National Day holiday, service consumption showed strong performance, particularly in rural tourism and sports events [2] - Future efforts will include removing restrictive measures, enhancing service scenarios, and improving the quality of service supply, especially for the elderly and children [3] Group 2: Foreign Trade - China's foreign trade has maintained a stable growth trend, with a 4% increase in goods trade in the first nine months of the year, and an 8% growth in September alone [6] - The Ministry of Commerce will focus on releasing policy effectiveness, promoting trade, and deepening trade cooperation to stabilize foreign trade growth [6][7] - The proportion of imports from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative has increased to 51.7%, with a 9.7% growth in imports from the least developed countries [6] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - The Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to the Dutch authorities' interference in Nexperia's operations, emphasizing the need for a fair business environment [4] - The Ministry highlighted the negative impact of U.S. export control measures on international trade and the global supply chain, particularly regarding semiconductor companies [10][12] - China is committed to protecting its enterprises' legitimate rights and interests in response to U.S. actions that disrupt trade relations [10][12] Group 4: Rare Earth Export Controls - China's recent rare earth export control measures aim to enhance national security and prevent illegal use of these materials [14][15] - The Ministry clarified that these measures are not a ban on exports but are designed to ensure compliance with international obligations [15][16] - Efforts will be made to streamline the approval process for compliant exports to minimize the impact on businesses [16]
商务部密集回应!涉中美会谈、稀土出口管制、稳外贸政策等
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-10-16 12:09
Core Points - The Ministry of Commerce held a routine press conference on October 16, 2025, with no new information announced [1][3] - The Ministry emphasized the positive growth in service consumption during the National Day holiday, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in daily sales revenue in related industries [6] - The Ministry plans to focus on three areas to further promote service consumption: cultivating new growth points, innovating diverse consumption scenarios, and optimizing service supply [6][7] Trade and Foreign Relations - China's foreign trade maintained stable growth in the first three quarters of the year, with a 4% increase in goods trade and an 8% growth in September [10] - The Ministry highlighted the importance of policy effectiveness, trade promotion, and deepening trade cooperation to stabilize foreign trade growth [10][11] - The Ministry expressed strong opposition to the Netherlands' interference in the operations of Nexperia, a subsidiary of Wingtech Technology, and criticized the U.S. for its "penetration rules" that harm Chinese enterprises [9][10] Semiconductor and Export Controls - The Ministry commented on the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, stating that the termination of subsidies for electric vehicles was a step towards correcting previous errors [13][14] - The Ministry defended its recent export control measures on rare earths, emphasizing that they are lawful and aimed at preventing illegal use while maintaining national security [23][25] - The Ministry indicated that export applications for civilian use would be approved, and it is considering measures to facilitate compliance for European companies [25]
消费“热”起来、经济“跑”起来 消费市场扩容、提质、焕新亮点持续显现
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-10-15 05:04
Core Insights - Consumption is identified as the "main engine" of economic growth and a "barometer" of people's well-being during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][7] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to grow from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1][9] - By 2025, the total retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 60% to economic growth annually [1][7] Consumption Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to align consumption expansion with improvements in people's quality of life, promoting green, healthy, and safe consumption [3][7] - The number of new energy vehicles is expected to increase 5.4 times from 2020 to 2024, with a penetration rate exceeding 50% by the first half of 2025 [3][9] - Service consumption is growing rapidly, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption [3][15] Market Dynamics - China's online retail sales remain the highest globally, and the sales of new energy vehicles continue to lead worldwide [5][9] - The consumption market is characterized by expansion, quality improvement, and innovation, enhancing its role as a stabilizer for the economy [7][9] - The current consumption landscape reflects a strong supply-demand match, driven by changes in consumer preferences and upgrades in manufacturing [11][17] New Consumption Models - New consumption models such as "digital + consumption" and "artificial intelligence + consumption" are experiencing robust growth [14] - The integration of online and offline shopping experiences is becoming more prevalent, with innovations like live-streaming sales and virtual reality shopping gaining traction [15][17] - The share of service consumption has surpassed 45%, showing a significant increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [15]
畅想十五五:提振内需将与生产并重
2025-10-14 14:44
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese consumer market** and its various segments, including traditional, emerging, and technology-driven consumption trends [1][3][6][41]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Government Initiatives**: The Chinese government is prioritizing consumption stimulation through policies such as a subsidy program for replacing old products, with a budget of **300 billion** yuan for 2025, up from **150 billion** yuan in 2024 [3][4][41]. - **Consumer Trends**: Traditional consumption faces challenges due to declining birth rates and changing consumer attitudes, while emerging consumption benefits from demographic shifts and a focus on cost-effectiveness [6][41]. - **Technology Consumption Growth**: The technology sector is rapidly expanding, particularly in electronics and AI, with brands like **Roborock** and **Ecovacs** establishing a high-end presence in Western markets [6][8][41]. - **Globalization of Chinese Brands**: Chinese companies are effectively responding to tariff fluctuations by relocating production to Southeast Asia and enhancing global supply chains, with brands like **Midea**, **Haier**, and **TCL** achieving significant international market penetration [9][10][41]. - **Fast Fashion Competitiveness**: Chinese fast fashion brands are leveraging digital technologies in supply chains to enhance responsiveness, surpassing traditional Western competitors like **Zara** and **H&M** [11][41]. - **Cultural and Entertainment Products**: The international competitiveness of Chinese lifestyle and entertainment brands is increasing, exemplified by **Anta's** acquisition of **Amer Sports** and the success of **Pop Mart** in overseas markets [12][41]. Additional Important Insights - **Service Consumer Development**: The growth of service-oriented consumers is linked to open-mindedness rather than mere supply issues, with potential future support from government policies [7][41]. - **Outdoor Apparel Market**: The outdoor apparel market is experiencing rapid growth post-pandemic, driven by increased demand for outdoor activities and a shift towards health-conscious lifestyles [13][41]. - **Running as a New Consumption Trend**: The running segment is gaining popularity, particularly among the 35-45 age group, with brands like **HOKA** and **Asics** showing strong growth [14][15][41]. - **Textile Industry Dynamics**: The textile and apparel sector is seeing varied performance, with retail growth dependent on seasonal weather conditions and consumer demand [17][41]. - **Pet Food Industry Internationalization**: Chinese pet food companies are transitioning from product exports to capacity and brand exports, with significant investments in overseas production facilities [30][31][32][41]. - **Future of the Alcohol Industry**: The liquor industry may face short-term adjustments but is expected to recover in the long term, particularly with potential government support for service-oriented policies [36][41]. Investment Opportunities - **Consumer Sector**: Companies with low valuations and strong supply chains, such as **Qingdao Beer** and **Poly Food**, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [39][41]. - **New Consumption Brands**: Brands in the new consumption space, particularly in beverages and innovative food products, are expected to perform well in the upcoming fiscal year [40][41]. - **Service Consumption Growth**: The new tea beverage sector is identified as a high-potential area, with expected double-digit growth in the coming years [24][25][41]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Chinese consumer market and related industries.
陶希东:顺势培育服务消费新增长点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-12 22:45
近日,财政部等部门发布《关于开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点工作的通知》,支持试点城市健全首 发经济服务体系,创新多元化服务消费场景,提升消费品质,扩大服务消费。服务消费已成为推动我国 消费市场增长的重要力量,近年来,居民消费正处于从物质型消费向服务型、品质型消费加速升级的关 键阶段。提振消费的重要一环,就是要遵循服务消费增长规律,加快培育服务消费新增长点。 也要看到,当前我国服务消费领域还存在一些堵点,部分服务消费(比如一老一小服务、家政服务等) 的供给能力还有短板,与巨大的市场需求相比存在缺口;养老、文旅等服务消费领域供给质量仍需提 高,难以满足多层次、多样性、个性化需求;一些领域服务消费协同度不足,需要进一步发挥政策合 力。 需求导向,精准匹配,塑造品质化、品牌化的服务消费新供给。充分运用大数据、人工智能等现代调查 研究方法,分析研究不同群体的服务需求、市场潜力、消费意愿等,以需求为导向,科学选择重点发展 的类型和方向,以适量化、品质化服务供给满足人民群众对美好生活的期许,是培育服务消费新增长点 的关键之举。例如老龄化程度较高的城市或地区,应着重打造养老服务品牌及消费高地。要针对不同群 体属性和需求,推动 ...