2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 2025年中国经济正经历三大深刻且相互关联的转变：（1）增长主引擎正从第二产业向更具潜 力的第三产业（服务业）切换；（2）建筑业自然萎缩；（3）内需主力从投资转向消费。 • "反内卷"=控供给+扩需求（主要针对实物产品部门），是串联这一切的主线。其路径清晰： 在供给端，建筑业的主动萎缩与工业产能出清，正是清理低效资本、发展新质生产力的关键一 步；需求端，资本存量过高背景下投资需求总量难以扩张（结构会有亮点），消费构成扩需求 主力，而发展服务业正是 ...

Core Insights - The service consumption market in China is expanding steadily, with a projected annual growth rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of Expanding Service Consumption - Service consumption is crucial for improving livelihoods and represents a significant direction for consumption transformation and upgrading [2][3] - The shift from goods to service consumption is evident, with service consumption emphasizing emotional and experiential satisfaction, which supports continuous upgrades and repeat purchases [2][3] - By 2024, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, indicating a growing role of service consumption in driving economic growth [2][3] Group 2: Employment and Quality of Life - Expanding service consumption is essential for stabilizing employment and improving living standards, as the service sector is labor-intensive and can create numerous job opportunities [3][4] - The growth in service consumption reflects a shift from material to spiritual consumption, enhancing overall well-being and quality of life for residents [3][4] - The number of domestic tourists is projected to increase from 3.262 billion in 2013 to 5.615 billion by 2024, showcasing the booming tourism market and its potential for consumption [3][4] Group 3: Economic Foundations for Service Consumption - China's stable economic growth provides a solid foundation for expanding service consumption, with the service sector becoming the largest industry in the national economy [4][5] - By 2024, the service sector's contribution to GDP is expected to reach 56.7%, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries where this figure is typically between 70% and 80% [4][5] - Rising income levels, with per capita GDP projected to reach 95,749 yuan in 2024, will further drive service consumption growth [4][5] Group 4: Demographic Changes and Market Potential - By the end of 2024, China's population is expected to reach 1.408 billion, with a notable increase in the elderly population, creating new demands for services such as home care and health management [5][6] - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, providing additional opportunities for service consumption growth as more rural residents transition to urban living [5][6] Group 5: Policy Measures and Support for Service Consumption - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the expansion of service consumption, including the issuance of guidelines for high-quality service consumption development [6][7] - Recent measures include optimizing service supply and enhancing consumer capacity through targeted policies and local initiatives [6][7] Group 6: Digital Services and New Consumption Trends - The digital economy is transforming service consumption, with digital technologies driving innovation in service delivery and creating new consumption scenarios [11][12] - By 2024, the scale of digital consumption is expected to reach 23.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 44.2% of total consumption [11][12] - The emergence of new consumer groups with a preference for personalized and experiential services is further stimulating the growth of digital service consumption [12][13] Group 7: Financial Support for Service Consumption - Financial institutions are increasingly focusing on supporting service consumption through tailored financial products and services [17][18] - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan fund to guide financial institutions in increasing credit to key service sectors [18][19] - The introduction of consumer finance services has been shown to significantly boost consumer spending, with estimates indicating a 16% to 30% increase in spending among borrowers [19][20]

为进一步构建优质高效服务业新体系，吴中区深入实施"产业强区、创新引领"发展战略，积极谋划生产 性服务业赋能"3+2+N"重点产业集群，2024年全区服务业增加值首次突破1000亿元，占GDP比重达 52.4%，生产性服务业占规上服务业比重超65%。 吴中区在推动产业融合、服务业集聚、领军企业培育等方面成效显著，累计培育江苏省"两业融合"区域 试点1个，"两业融合"试点单位7家，省市级现代服务业集聚区8家，省市级服务业领军企业14家。省级 以上孵化器11家，27家市级以上总部企业。吴中区成功获批江苏省首批面向人形机器人领域的未来产业 先行集聚发展试点，新业态、新模式、新动能不断涌现。 数智+AI双轮驱动 "十四五"期间，吴中区现代服务业发展全面提速，在结构优化、业态创新、产业集聚等方面取得显著成 效。通过促进载体升级、深化融合发展与改革，服务业整体呈现稳中向好、质效齐升的良好局面，为区 域经济转型升级与持续健康发展提供了强劲动力。 发展成效显著 服务业成经济核心支柱 吴中区汇聚多个专业创业园区和创新孵化基地，为创新主体提供全周期服务。以"一谷多园、生态智 谷、AI软实力、具身硬科技"为特色，构建"软件赋能+硬件 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy in October shows a stable and improving development trend, with production supply remaining stable and employment conditions generally solid [1] - The overall growth rate has slowed down, with industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.5% [1] - Exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous month's growth of 8.3% [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.0% [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline of 0.3% last month to an increase of 0.2%, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for six consecutive months [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed for three consecutive months, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with the decline in the tertiary industry investment being a major factor [2] - Investment in the first and second industries remains positive, while the third industry saw a decline of 5.3% [2] - Private investment fell by 4.5%, but excluding real estate development investment, it showed a slight positive growth of 0.2% [2] Manufacturing Sector - Despite overall investment pressures, manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% year-on-year from January to October, surpassing the overall investment growth rate [3] - High-tech manufacturing investment is growing rapidly, indicating a structural optimization in the manufacturing sector [3] - The demand for productive services is expanding due to manufacturing upgrades, highlighting significant investment opportunities in the service sector [3] Policy Recommendations - To establish a new economic growth model driven by domestic demand, consumption, and innovation, there is a need for enhanced policy guidance and investment support for both life and productive services [3] - Private enterprises, with their flexible mechanisms, have a natural advantage in these service sectors, suggesting a need for reforms to stimulate private investment in high-value-added service areas [3]

Core Insights - The meeting chaired by Zheng Zhanjie focused on gathering opinions and suggestions for accelerating the development of the service industry in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The service industry is recognized as a crucial component of the national economy, with significant potential for expansion and quality improvement [2] Group 1: Service Industry Development - The service industry in China has been rapidly developing, with a continuously expanding market size and the emergence of new models and formats, providing ample space for high-quality development [1] - Companies are optimistic about the future demand in the service sector and are working towards specialized and refined service development to better meet production activities and public needs [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, implementing actions to enhance capacity and quality, and deepening regulatory reforms [2] Group 2: Government Support and Policy Recommendations - Zheng Zhanjie highlighted the importance of the service industry's development level as a measure of a country's economic progress and called for companies to seize development opportunities [2] - The government plans to absorb and adopt valuable suggestions from enterprises in the formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Recent measures released by the State Council signal strong support for the development of private enterprises, indicating a favorable environment for investment and growth in the service sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, marking a new stage of quality improvement and innovation integration in China's service sector [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Industry - The service industry in China is set to expand and improve significantly, driven by structural changes such as increased GDP per capita, accelerated industrial transformation, and rising urbanization rates [2]. - The plan proposes actions to enhance the quality and capacity of the service industry, which will help reshape the economic ecosystem and better meet the needs of the population [2]. - The two main pillars of the service industry, productive and life services, are identified as "dual engines" for this expansion, with a focus on upgrading productive services to support industrial transformation and enhancing life services for public welfare [2][3]. Group 2: Continuous Expansion of Open Sectors - Expanding the openness of the service industry is crucial for its high-quality development, with the plan suggesting alignment with international trade rules to enhance market access [4][6]. - In the first nine months of this year, actual foreign investment in the service sector reached 410.93 billion yuan, accounting for over 70% of total foreign investment [4]. - The plan highlights the need to further open sectors such as telecommunications, biotechnology, and education, aiming to boost foreign investment and enhance the service industry's global competitiveness [4][6]. Group 3: Enhancing Integration Development Levels - The integration of modern services with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture is a key trend, aimed at driving industrial transformation and enhancing core competitiveness [7]. - The dynamic process of integrating modern services with advanced manufacturing is expected to foster innovation and improve service quality, thereby promoting new production capabilities [7][8]. - The development of service-oriented manufacturing has shown initial advantages, with continuous improvement in the sector's development index from 2018 to 2023 [8].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing a series of important policy signals to stabilize economic growth in the short term while planning for quality improvement in the long term [1] - The NDRC is utilizing special bonds and policy financial tools to promote effective investment and stabilize economic growth, with a focus on key projects in specific provinces [1][2] - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully allocated, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment scale of approximately 7 trillion yuan, targeting sectors like digital economy and urban renewal [2] Group 2 - The government is actively promoting the development of new consumption formats through diversified pilot policies, with financial support for trial cities based on their category [2] - The "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan" aims to create a structured urban commercial ecosystem, establishing a three-tier commercial system to enhance consumer experience [3] - The importance of developing the service industry is emphasized, with plans to introduce measures to promote its growth, which is crucial for expanding domestic demand and optimizing economic structure [3][4] Group 3 - The government plans to guide funds towards key areas in the service industry, such as elderly care and cultural tourism, to enhance service quality and innovation [4] - The service consumption share of total consumption expenditure has been increasing, reaching 46.8% in the first three quarters of this year, indicating strong growth potential in the market [3]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing a series of important policy signals to stabilize economic growth in the short term while planning for high-quality development in the long term [1] - The NDRC is utilizing special bonds and policy financial tools to promote effective investment and stabilize economic growth, with a focus on key projects in specific provinces [1][2] - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully allocated, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment scale of approximately 7 trillion yuan, targeting sectors like digital economy and urban infrastructure [2] Group 2 - The NDRC is actively promoting the development of new consumption formats and has launched a series of support measures for new business models and scenarios [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have introduced an "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan" to create a structured urban commercial ecosystem, emphasizing a three-tier commercial system [3] - The importance of developing the service industry has been highlighted, with plans to introduce measures to promote innovation and efficiency in life service sectors, which are crucial for expanding domestic demand [4]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the implementation of effective investment policies, with a recent allocation of 500 billion yuan for local government debt to enhance comprehensive financial capacity and expand effective investment [1] - The NDRC has introduced an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas specifically for supporting investment projects in certain provinces [1] - The NDRC is also focusing on the innovation and development of the service industry, identifying multiple trillion-yuan market opportunities, particularly in sectors like gaming and related products [1] - Recent forecasts from international economic organizations, such as the IMF and World Bank, have raised China's economic growth expectations for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points compared to earlier predictions [1] Investment and Policy Measures - The NDRC will supervise and guide relevant provinces in utilizing the new bond quotas effectively, expediting the issuance and use of special bonds, and ensuring timely project commencement to generate tangible work output [1] - A policy document is being developed to enhance the diversified development mechanism of the service industry, aiming to better meet the public's needs and further unlock growth potential in this sector [1] Economic Outlook - The NDRC plans to strengthen the regular policy research and reserve, with timely implementation of measures as needed, in response to the improved economic growth forecasts from international organizations [1]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for Yangzhou's service industry, focusing on high-quality development and integration with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture [1] - Yangzhou aims to build a robust service industry development system, contributing to its goal of becoming a "trillion city" and enhancing its three major city brands [1] Group 1: Industry Scale and Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," Yangzhou's service industry demonstrated resilience and vitality, with a projected service industry added value of 380.94 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, accounting for 48.8% of GDP [2] - By the end of 2024, the number of large-scale service enterprises in Yangzhou reached 1,734, an increase of 857 compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The service industry has become the main channel for employment, absorbing nearly 50% of the city's workforce [2] Group 2: Structural Optimization and Quality Improvement - The service industry not only achieved stable growth in quantity but also made significant qualitative improvements, accelerating the transformation of old and new growth drivers [3] - The number of large-scale productive service enterprises exceeded 1,300 in 2024, with their added value accounting for approximately 59% of the service industry [3] - The modern logistics sector has been recognized as a key player in the national strategy, while innovative financial products have emerged to support the industry [3] Group 3: Quality Upgrade in Life Services - The life service sector is evolving towards high quality and diversity, with social retail sales expected to reach 177.054 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - Tourism revenue surpassed 100 billion yuan, with new cultural landmarks becoming popular tourist attractions [4] - Various service sectors, including health, elderly care, and sports, are expanding and improving to meet diverse consumer needs [4] Group 4: Development Environment and Policy Support - Yangzhou is enhancing its business environment to support high-quality service industry development, focusing on institutional innovation and meeting enterprise needs [5] - A comprehensive policy framework has been established, including the "Three Plans" and "Two Projects" for modern service industry development [5] - The city is optimizing service project support mechanisms, including land, funding, and talent supply [6] Group 5: Future Development Goals - Yangzhou aims to create a modern service industry system that is efficient, vibrant, and competitive, focusing on the integration of productive, life, and future-oriented services [6] - The city plans to leverage technological innovation, deep integration, and industrial upgrades to enhance service industry capabilities [6] - Yangzhou is set to embark on a new journey towards becoming a significant modern service industry hub in the Yangtze River Delta region [6]