Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 recorded at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, indicating marginal improvement but still within the contraction zone, reflecting a fragile recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][6] Manufacturing Sector - The production index returned to the critical point of 50.0%, but there remains a gap with the new orders index at 49.2%, indicating a supply strong and demand weak situation [1][6] - Large enterprises maintain PMI in the expansion zone, supported by major projects and infrastructure, while small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly in the downstream construction materials and home furnishings sectors, continue to perform poorly [1][6] - The new export orders index improved from 47.3 to 48.1, suggesting a boost in inquiries due to the US-China tariff truce, although actual increases may experience a time lag [1][6] Production - The industrial added value for November is expected to remain around 5% year-on-year, reflecting the resilience of China's industrial system despite a significant adjustment in the real estate sector [2][7] - The automotive manufacturing sector is expected to maintain high growth, driven by year-end production boosts, while electronics and aerospace manufacturing will also see relatively high growth rates [2][7] - In contrast, industries such as black metal smelting and non-metal mineral products continue to face negative or zero growth, heavily impacted by a sharp decline in demand for rebar and cement due to reduced new construction in real estate [2][7] Consumption - The retail sales growth for November is anticipated to remain relatively low, with the "Double Eleven" shopping festival achieving a total online sales of 1.619 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [3][8] - Essential categories like grain and personal care saw steady growth, while non-essential items like beauty and apparel relied heavily on significant discounts [3][8] - Despite strong production in the automotive sector, retail performance is disappointing, with expected year-on-year declines of 7.0% in passenger car sales due to the inability of new energy vehicle growth to offset declines in traditional fuel vehicle sales [3][8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to remain weak, primarily due to the real estate sector's ongoing challenges, with major real estate companies experiencing a 36% year-on-year drop in sales in November [4][9] - Infrastructure investment is projected to maintain low growth, with local governments being cautious about new project approvals [4][9] - Manufacturing investment is expected to sustain relatively high growth, focusing on equipment upgrades and expansion in high-tech industries, although overall demand constraints may limit expansion willingness [4][9] Trade - November export growth is expected to be around 3%, influenced by a recent US-China trade truce that reduced tariffs on certain goods [12][13] - Imports are also projected to show slight positive growth, supported by increased purchases of US agricultural products following the tariff agreement [12][13] Price Trends - November CPI is expected to be around 0.7%, influenced by weather-related supply constraints on vegetables and fruits, while pork prices continue to decline due to weak demand [16][17] - November PPI is projected to remain at -2.1%, with oil prices and industrial product prices showing signs of improvement [17][18]

证券研究报告 | 宏观预测报告 2025 年 12 月 6 日 固定资产投资增速或仍偏弱 —2025 年 11 月宏观经济预测报告 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《服务消费淡季回调明显— —11 月 PMI 数据点评》2025- 12-6 | 张静静 | S1090522050003 | | --- | --- | | zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张岸天 | S1090522070002 | | zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn | | | 罗 丹 | S1090524070004 | | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张玉书 | 研究助理 | | zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn | | | 赵兴举 | 研究助理 | zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 表 1：宏观经济指标实际值、预测值与未来方向 | 分类 | 预测指标 | 10 月实际 | 11 月预测 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 制造业 PMI（%） | ...

全球最大综合孔径射电望远镜巡天逐日、江门中微子实验大幕开启、量子计算商业化"破壁"前行、电子通信超高速信号"中国标尺"鼎立全 球……2025，创新浪潮奔涌不息，科技突破与产业变革交相辉映，为新质生产力注入磅礴动能。 发展新质生产力，是通往高质量发展的必由之路。面对世界百年变局的风云激荡、新一轮科技革命和产业变革的加速演进，以习近平同志 为核心的党中央把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战略位置。 今年以来，各地各部门立足实际、统筹谋划，中国经济向新而行的路线图更明晰，新质生产力发展不断取得新进展，培育更多 向"新"求"质"的动能，持续激发高质量发展的强劲动力。 以科技创新为引领 新质生产力稳步发展 传统产业推陈致新：以"数"赋能，纺织业不断打造智能化供应链；人工智能+钢铁持续"炼"出新动能；全国建成3.5万多家基础级、230多 家卓越级智能工厂，持续推动的转型升级让"老树"发出"新芽"。 11月，位于甘肃民勤的2兆瓦液态燃料钍基熔盐实验堆已成功实现国际首次钍铀核燃料转换，成为目前国际上唯一运行且实现钍燃料入堆 的熔盐堆，这为我国未来规模化开发利用钍资源、发展第四代先进核能系统提供核心技术支撑与可行方案。 创 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：谷歌最近通过TPU集群实现了超越，据查TPU相对英伟 达GPU需要用更多的高速铜缆也就是贵公司的高速通信线，TPU这种分布式架构需要用更多铜缆实现机 架之间的连接，这无疑说明谷歌对铜缆的需求远超英伟达！而贵公司作为高速铜缆的国内外都领先的企 业，应该深度受益谷歌的发展。请问前面的分析或理解是否正确，公司拥有的业内最前沿的单通道 224G铜链接产品是否有供应谷歌了？ 沃尔核材（002130.SZ）12月5日在投资者互动平台表示，公司的高速通信线具有出色的高频性能、耐弯 折、低成本、高可靠性和完善的产业链配套等优势，处于产业链上游，通过国内外连接器行业领先客户 最终供应给国际、国内各大服务器厂商终端使用。 ...

Core Insights - The company,沃尔核材, has established itself as a leader in the AI computing power sector with its high-speed communication line products and key equipment reserves [1] - The company has formed stable business partnerships with leading domestic and international clients [1] - The development of a single-channel 448G high-speed communication line sample has been completed and is currently undergoing validation with key clients [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved mass production of its single-channel 224G high-speed communication cable, which is primarily used in data centers for terminal server manufacturers [1] Group 1 - The single-channel 224G high-speed communication cable is designed for the data center sector [1] - The company has successfully transitioned to mass production of this product [1]

Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Hong Kong indicates that marginal benefits for Hong Kong stocks are accumulating, with the technology sector and non-ferrous metals sector showing active trends [1] - Despite market consolidation, Hong Kong stocks have reached an upward turning point, with a focus on the development prospects of AI and other technology fields [1] - Overall, the technology sector in Hong Kong stocks is viewed as one of the important growth areas in the fourth quarter strategy [1] Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which focuses on technology-themed companies that are tradable through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - This index includes 30 constituent stocks, emphasizing high R&D investment and growth potential, with a focus on hardware manufacturing and electronic communication industries, while also covering software services and internet applications [1] - The index aims to comprehensively reflect the overall performance of the entire technology industry chain in the Hong Kong stock market [1]

Core Viewpoint -沃尔核材 announced the convening of its eighth board meeting on November 18, 2025, to discuss the appointment of the head of the internal audit department and other documents [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of沃尔核材 was 67.58% from electronic communication and 32.42% from new energy power [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of沃尔核材 is 31.9 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index showing a maximum drawdown of nearly 8% since November, following a strong rally earlier in the year [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext Index has seen a maximum drawdown of 8% as of November 17, with various indices within the "Chuang" series also experiencing declines, such as the ChiNext 50 down 7.6% and the ChiNext 300 down 5.32% [3] - Major stocks in the computing power sector have faced significant declines, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang down 10.09% and Shenghong Technology down 16.31% this month [3] - The computing power sector has accumulated substantial gains prior to the recent adjustments, leading to a shift in market focus towards lower-valued sectors [4] Group 2: Company Developments - Ningde Times, the largest weight in the ChiNext Index, saw its stock drop nearly 4% due to a major shareholder planning to sell 45.63 million shares, representing 1% of the company's total equity [2] - Alibaba's announcement of its "Qianwen" project to enter the AI to C market has sparked a rally in AI-related stocks, with companies like Xuanya International and Dongfang Guoxin seeing significant price increases [4] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the computing power sector, suggesting that the current adjustments present investment opportunities, especially with ongoing strong demand driven by AI [4] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation and narrow fluctuations as it awaits new catalysts for direction, despite recent weak macroeconomic data [5]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has experienced significant fluctuations in 2023, with the ChiNext Index showing a maximum increase of 90% from April 7 to October 30, but has faced a pullback of nearly 8% since November, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][4]. Market Performance - The ChiNext Index has retraced 6.4% in November, with various indices such as the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext 300 experiencing declines of 7.6% and 5.32% respectively [4][5]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index, particularly in the computing power sector, have seen significant declines, with stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Shenghong Technology dropping 10.09% and 16.31% respectively [5]. Fund Management Insights - Fund reports indicate that TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) holdings reached a historical high of nearly 40%, leading to a shift in investment strategies as funds move towards lower valuation sectors [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in the computing power sector are due to prior rapid increases and a strategic shift in capital allocation [5]. AI Market Developments - Alibaba's announcement of its "Qianwen" project to enter the AI to C market has sparked renewed interest in AI applications, leading to notable stock price increases in related companies [6]. - Despite volatility in the computing power sector, brokerages maintain an optimistic outlook, citing strong ongoing demand driven by AI [6]. Earnings Performance - In Q3 2025, companies listed on the ChiNext continued to show strong performance, with over 70% achieving profitability and more than 50% reporting net profit growth [8]. - The computing power sector, particularly the "Yizhongtian" portfolio, reported a net profit of 14.924 billion yuan, a 134% increase year-on-year [8]. Market Outlook - Short-term market expectations suggest a return to endogenous drivers, with a stable earnings outlook despite recent macroeconomic weaknesses [9]. - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of consolidation and potential upward movement, pending new catalysts towards the end of the year [9].