Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in egg prices is driven by factors such as oversold market conditions, seasonal stocking demand, and the exit of short-sellers, despite ongoing supply pressures from the egg-laying hen industry [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of September 5, the main egg futures contract closed at 2964 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a nearly 2% increase from the low point on September 2 [1][2] - The average price of eggs in China's agricultural wholesale market was 7.73 yuan per kg on September 5, up 1.84% from 7.59 yuan per kg on September 2 [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The egg market is experiencing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with seasonal demand typically peaking in the third quarter, but this year has seen a lack of price increase during the traditional peak season [3][4] - The number of old hens being culled is expected to increase in September, as many producers plan to eliminate older hens ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [4][7] Profitability and Production Trends - The prolonged low prices of eggs have led to significant losses for egg producers, with losses nearing 0.30 yuan per kg during July and August [6] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards selective culling of hens due to poor profitability, with expectations that the overall production capacity will gradually decrease [6][7] Future Outlook - There is a potential for slight price increases in September due to pre-holiday stocking by food manufacturers and increased demand from school cafeterias [7] - However, the overall rebound in egg prices may be limited due to high production capacity, with average prices expected to remain below historical levels, fluctuating between 3.1 yuan and 3.2 yuan per jin [7]

● 本报记者 马爽 近期，鸡蛋期现货市场均出现回暖势头。9月5日，鸡蛋期货主力合约收报2964元/500千克，较9月2日盘 中低点累计涨近2%；9月5日，中国农产品批发市场鸡蛋平均价为7.73元/公斤，较9月2日累计上涨 1.84%。 业内人士表示，市场超跌后存在反弹需求，再加上季节性备货需求增加以及空头资金离场等因素，共同 推动蛋价短期反弹。不过，当前蛋鸡养殖仍处于亏损状态，养殖户淘汰老鸡的积极性不高，鸡蛋市场供 应压力依然较大，或限制本轮蛋价反弹高度。 多因素驱动蛋价止跌反弹 近期鸡蛋期货价格止跌反弹。文华财经数据显示，截至9月5日收盘，鸡蛋期货主力合约收报2964元/500 千克，而9月2日盘中最低价为2907元/500千克，区间累计上涨1.96%。 从基本面来看，中信建投期货分析师魏鑫认为，此次鸡蛋期货价格反弹更可能是超跌反弹、季节性备货 需求增加以及空头资金离场等因素共同推动的结果。 与期货市场相比，近期鸡蛋现货市场回暖态势更为显著。以京城"菜篮子"——北京新发地农产品批发市 场信息为例，9月5日，散装鸡蛋平均价为3.95元/斤，8月5日则为3.5元/斤，期间累计上涨12.86%。 从全国鸡蛋市场整 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in egg futures have shown signs of a rebound after significant declines, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a notable increase in short-covering activity [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - On September 2, egg futures hit a low of 2907 yuan per 500 kg before closing at 2959 yuan, followed by a rise to 3011 yuan on September 3, marking a 2.62% increase [3]. - The egg futures index has surpassed 1 million contracts, indicating a historical peak in open interest, with significant divergence between bulls and bears [3][10]. - The 2510 contract's open interest has decreased for three consecutive days, while the 2511 contract has seen an increase in long positions [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal demand has slightly increased due to school openings and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, but supply pressures remain high, limiting the potential for significant price increases [4][5]. - The circulation speed of eggs has improved, with inventory days decreasing from 0.89 days in August to 0.73 days in early September [5]. - Despite the seasonal uptick in demand, the overall supply remains robust, with a high production rate expected as the heat stress on laying hens subsides [5][11]. Group 3: Producer Sentiment - Producers are showing decreased enthusiasm for restocking due to prolonged losses, with a notable decline in the number of hens being replaced [6][8]. - The age of culled hens has decreased from approximately 540 days to 500 days, indicating a shift in producer behavior in response to market conditions [8]. - The current cash breeding cost is around 2.8 to 2.9 yuan per jin, while egg prices are fluctuating around 3.0 yuan per jin, leading to financial strain on producers [9]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The egg market is expected to experience wide fluctuations at the bottom, with current prices being relatively undervalued, but no significant improvement in fundamentals is anticipated [10]. - The potential for a rebound in prices exists, but it is likely to be limited due to the high production capacity and the anticipated increase in supply from newly produced hens [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a bearish approach for egg investment. Currently, the egg market is facing abundant supply due to high egg - laying hen inventory, new - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, and continuous cold - storage egg outflows. At the same time, terminal demand is weak, the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices to reduce inventory. The industrial capacity reduction is slow, which may continue to restrict egg prices during the school - opening and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking seasons. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a bearish approach [6]. - **Market Review**: This week, the egg price continued to decline. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 2939 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 96 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: High egg - laying hen inventory, new - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, and cold - storage egg outflows lead to sufficient supply. Weak terminal demand, high - temperature caution, and low - price sales by breeding enterprises result in lower - than - expected spot prices and continuous losses for the breeding side. Slow industrial capacity reduction may restrict egg prices during peak seasons. The futures price remains weak [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 493,762 lots, an increase of 59,481 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,469, with little change in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3116 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 59 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 177 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was - 383 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of August 28, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.94 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.94 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%. The national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Laying - Hen Culling Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen culling index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%. The national culling age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2364.71 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of August 22, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.15 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Egg - Laying Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.1 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [64]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the company's price - to - earnings ratio changes, but no specific analysis is provided [66].

Group 1 - The core issue is a salmonella outbreak linked to contaminated eggs, with nearly 100 reported cases across multiple states [1] - The CDC reported 95 individuals infected with the same strain of salmonella from 14 states, with 18 requiring hospitalization and no fatalities reported [1] - The affected company, "Country Eggs," has recalled potentially contaminated eggs primarily distributed in California and Nevada [1] Group 2 - The CDC advises the public against consuming the recalled eggs and emphasizes the importance of cleaning surfaces that may have come into contact with the eggs [1] - Symptoms of salmonella infection typically include diarrhea, fever, and abdominal cramps, appearing within 6 hours to 6 days after exposure [1] - Vulnerable populations, such as children, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals, are at higher risk for severe illness [1]

Core Insights - The current egg prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with prices in major production areas remaining stable or showing minor declines [1][2] - The average daily inventory levels for eggs in production and circulation are stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [3] Price Overview - Shandong egg price is 6.35 CNY/kg, Hebei is 6.24 CNY/kg (down 0.08 CNY), Guangdong is 6.40 CNY/kg, and Beijing is 7.00 CNY/kg (down 0.10 CNY) [1] - The futures market shows the main contract for eggs closing at 2930.00 CNY/500kg, with a decline of 2.24% [2] Supply and Inventory - The number of eliminated chickens has increased in recent weeks, with figures of 16.76 million, 14.42 million, and 13.71 million respectively [3] - Average inventory levels are 1.06 days in production and 1.10 days in circulation, indicating a slight decrease in circulation inventory [3] Market Analysis - The upcoming school season and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to boost demand, leading to a slight improvement in egg sales [4] - Despite a potential short-term price rebound due to reduced inventory, the overall supply remains high, limiting significant price increases [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - side pressure on eggs is still significant. The in - production laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years, and the cold - stored eggs previously stocked in the market are flowing out, putting downward pressure on prices. As a result, egg prices are not rising during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds, and short positions can be considered [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - **Price**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas today is 3.01 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price is mainly stable today, with egg prices in Beijing markets dropping by 2 yuan per box. Egg prices in Northeast Liaoning are falling, while those in Jilin and Heilongjiang are stable. In other regions, prices are mostly stable with some fluctuations [6]. - **Inventory**: In July, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated in - production laying hen inventories from August to November 2025 are approximately 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick and Hen Culling**: In July, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. From August 21 - 28, the national main production area laying hen culling volume was 18.51 million, a 10% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of hens was 496 days, a 4 - day decrease from the previous week [7]. - **Sales Volume**: As of the week of August 14, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7,605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of August 28, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.06 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week. On August 8, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/hen, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/hen from the previous week. Today, the national culled hen price has dropped, with the main production area average price at 4.64 yuan/jin, a 0.05 yuan/jin decrease from the previous trading day [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic Supply - side pressure is obvious. The in - production inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years, and the outflow of cold - stored eggs has put pressure on prices. As a result, egg prices are not rising during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider short positions on rallies [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [10]. - **Options**: Sell call options [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes 15 charts, covering egg prices in main production and sales areas, chick prices, culled hen prices, feed costs, in - production laying hen inventory, price spreads, basis, and farming profit expectations [12][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - side pressure in the egg market is still significant, with the in - production inventory at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. The release of cold - stored eggs also exerts downward pressure on prices, resulting in falling egg prices during the peak season. Without large - scale and extensive over - culling in the short term, the short - selling logic holds, and investors can consider short - selling at high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3354, down 22 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3431, down 44; JD09 closed at 2896, down 20 [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 77, up 22; the 05 - 09 spread was 535, down 24; the 09 - 01 spread was - 458, up 2 [3]. - **Ratio Changes**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, down 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.53, down 0.02; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.30, down 0.02. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.21, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.97, up 0.01 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the production areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the sales areas was 3.32 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin. Prices in most regions showed an upward trend [3][6]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.69 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [3][9]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Inventory and Supply**: In July, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The estimated in - production laying hen inventories for August, September, October, and November 2025 are 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatch and Culling**: In July, the monthly chick hatch of sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. In the week of August 14, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of August 14, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week. As of the week of August 7, the average inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days from the previous week, and the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit Situation**: As of August 14, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8, the expected profit per laying hen was 11.92 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: Consider short - selling at high prices [11]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Short the near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long the far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [11]. - **Options Trading**: Sell call options [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Egg supply is abundant due to high laying - hen inventory, new - laying pressure from previously replenished hens, and continuous出库 of cold - storage eggs. Terminal demand is weak, and high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. Spot prices are lower than expected, and the breeding end is in a continuous loss state. The slow de - capacity in the industry may continue to restrict egg prices during the school - opening and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking seasons. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2975 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 38 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54551 hands, a decrease of 3922 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is 22 yuan/500 kilograms; the registered warehouse receipt volume is - 77 hands; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 515876 hands, an increase of 44842 hands [2] 3.2现货市场 - The egg spot price is 3.09 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 79 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 58 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27; the national culled laying - hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89; the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas is 3.2 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.4 yuan; the national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33; the average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kilogram, unchanged; the egg - chicken breeding profit is - 0.15 yuan/head, an increase of 0.11 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 10.1 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.84 yuan; the national culled - chicken age is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.92 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan/kilogram, unchanged; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.67 yuan/kilogram, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.16 days, an increase of 0.13 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 7439 tons, a decrease of 166 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong is 6.35 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.15 yuan; in Hebei, it is 6.32 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.19 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.40 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 7.10 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.20 yuan. Currently, the laying - hen inventory is high, the new - laying pressure of previously replenished laying hens is large, and the egg supply is sufficient. Cold - storage eggs are continuously出库, increasing the supply pressure [2]

Group 1 - The supply of eggs is in an upward cycle, leading to an increase in quantity but a decrease in price [1] - There is a moderate negative correlation (0.60) between the average monthly price of eggs and the number of laying hens, indicating that higher stock levels typically result in lower prices [1] - The supply of powdered eggs is more bearish compared to brown eggs, with a rising trend in the breeding of powdered hens due to increased feed costs since 2021 [1] Group 2 - By 2025, feed costs for eggs are expected to rebound slightly, decreasing by 1.63% compared to the previous year, which alleviates cost pressure on breeding units [2] - Despite lower feed costs, egg prices are declining, leading to prolonged periods of profit loss for single eggs [2] - A decrease in egg supply is anticipated after August, as the number of suitable old hens for elimination is expected to decline from high levels [2]