1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a state of "strong supply and weak demand" as the Spring Festival stocking nears its end. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [5][16][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.53 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival [5] - The price of old hens has been weakly adjusted after falling from a high. The market demand support is average, and the supply - demand of the old hen market is relatively stable [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - According to Zhuochuang data, the weekly egg - chicken culling volume in the main producing areas of the country from February 6th was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6th was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [10] - In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly output of egg - chicken chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was 43.22 million, a 9% month - on - month increase and little change year - on - year [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of February 5th, the corn price was around 2,368 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,176 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,610 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs [13] - The feed price fluctuated little this week, and the cost per catty of eggs was flat month - on - month. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs decreased. As of January 15th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan per catty from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - As the festival stocking nears the end, the market starts risk control in advance. The sales in markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dongguan have slowed down significantly, and the price is under pressure. The sales in the selling areas have decreased month - on - month. As of February 6th, the weekly egg sales in the national representative selling areas were 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [16] - After the festival stocking ended, egg prices entered a rapid decline cycle, and egg inventories showed a "rapid inventory accumulation" trend. The inventory days in the production and circulation links increased month - on - month for many consecutive days. As of the week of January 23rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.26 days, with little change from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.45 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index rebounded slightly. On February 4th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 132. The pork price also rebounded slightly. As of January 31st, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.67 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Trading logic: As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is basically coming to an end. The market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [17] - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - No specific data or analysis content provided in the text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data from 2018 - 2025 for different contract months (January, May, September), including 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc., but no specific analysis is made [24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over. The good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has eased, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3756, up 69 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3385, down 20; JD09 closed at 3863, down 9 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 371, up 89; the 05 - 09 spread was - 478, down 11; the 09 - 01 spread was 107, down 78 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66, up 0.03; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, unchanged. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.24, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.35, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of decline and stability [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The profit per feather was 18.89 yuan, down 3.62 yuan. The average price of corn was 2372 yuan, down 1 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3178 yuan, unchanged; the price of laying hen compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices showed a mixed trend of decline and stability [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of January 16, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of January 16, the egg sales in representative selling areas were 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a historical low [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of January 15, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan. On January 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly reduced from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly reduced [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over. The good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. The number of culled chickens in the main producing areas in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Core Viewpoint - The overall price of eggs in Hubei province increased in January due to rising demand, but a decline is expected in February as demand weakens and inventory builds up during the Spring Festival [2][10]. Price Trends - In January, the average price of eggs in Hubei was 3.36 yuan per jin, with a month-on-month increase of 16.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.63% [11]. - The highest price recorded was 3.82 yuan per jin on January 29, while the lowest was 2.86 yuan per jin at the beginning of the month, resulting in a price range of 0.96 yuan per jin [11]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for eggs increased as food companies prepared for the Spring Festival, leading to higher procurement volumes [4][13]. - The average daily sales volume of eggs in major sales areas was 1,035.46 tons in January, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.73% [4][13]. - Weekly average shipments in Hubei were 361 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.06% [4][13]. Supply Conditions - The number of new laying hens decreased in January due to low profitability, resulting in a limited decline in the stock of laying hens, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.11% [6][15]. - Some farmers held back on selling older hens due to rising egg prices, which affected the outflow of older hens [6][15]. Future Outlook - Demand is expected to weaken in February due to the Spring Festival holiday, leading to increased inventory levels and a potential decline in egg prices [7][16]. - The average price of eggs may drop to between 2.50 and 2.60 yuan per jin in February as supply pressures increase and demand weakens [7][16].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spot has been good recently, with spot prices rising. The profit situation is favorable, leading to a decrease in market culling enthusiasm. Considering that the egg consumption season will enter a slack period after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the recent good egg prices. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices of JD01, JD05, and JD09 remained unchanged from the previous trading day, with closing prices of 3683, 3445, and 3882 respectively. The spreads between different months also remained stable, such as 01 - 05 at 238, 05 - 09 at -437, and 09 - 01 at 199. The ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts also showed no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.63 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.86 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices continued to decline, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong mostly falling. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 0.08 billion from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January 16th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was about 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week, and the average culling age was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. As of January 16th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a historical low. As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan from the previous week, and the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming on January 9th was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreased from the previous week [5][6]. 3.4 Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spot is good, with prices rising. The profit situation is favorable, and the culling enthusiasm has decreased. The culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas from January 23rd was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption slack period, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Core Viewpoint - The price of eggs in Lijin County, Shandong Province, has been continuously rising, with the latest retail price reaching 4.6 yuan per jin, marking a 35% increase compared to the same period last month [1] Price Trends - Since late December 2025, egg prices have stabilized from a low point and entered an upward trend, accelerating in January 2026 [1] - Specific price points include: - January 8: 3.5 yuan per jin - January 15: 3.8 yuan per jin (up 8.6% from the beginning of the month) - January 22: 4.2 yuan per jin (up 10.5% from the previous week) - January 29: 4.6 yuan per jin (up 9.5% from the previous week) - The price has increased for four consecutive weeks, showing a significant cumulative rise [1] Reasons for Price Increase - The primary reasons for the continuous rise in egg prices include: - Lower egg production rates due to cold winter temperatures, leading to tighter market supply [1] - Increased demand for food processing and household stocking ahead of the Spring Festival, driving prices up [1] - High costs of feed and other farming expenses providing a price support [1] - The low price level of eggs in Q4 2025 (3.2-3.5 yuan per jin) contributing to a cyclical price correction [1] Future Outlook - With the Spring Festival approaching, consumer demand is expected to remain strong, and egg prices are likely to continue operating at high levels in the short term [1] - After the festival, as demand subsides, prices are anticipated to stabilize gradually [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflection point of the laying hen inventory has emerged. As of the end of December 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.344 billion, with a month - on - month decline of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. It is expected that the laying hen inventory will decline gradually [5][19][38]. - In January 2026, egg sales continued to be weak year - on - year but showed a slight month - on - month recovery. After the Spring Festival, the overall demand will remain weak [5][30][38]. - For the spot market, the peak of egg prices is expected to appear soon, and attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan after the Spring Festival. For the futures market, the seesaw effect between near - month and far - month contracts will continue. Before the Spring Festival, the market will fluctuate within a range. The opening price of the spot market after the Spring Festival will greatly affect the subsequent market trend [5][8][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Price - **Spot Market**: In January, egg prices rose more than expected. As of January 30, the average price in the producing areas was 4.04 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas, it was 4.31 yuan/jin. The peak of egg prices is expected to appear soon, and the inventory needs to be digested after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan [7]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract switched to 03. The near - month contracts were relatively strong, and the far - month contracts starting from 05 were significantly weak. Before the Spring Festival, the market will fluctuate within a range. A double - buy strategy for egg options can be considered before the Spring Festival to gain potential benefits from increased volatility. There is no obvious trend for single - side futures trading [8]. Supply Side 2.1 Elimination of Hens - In January, the average daily price of Hy - Line Brown eliminated hens was 4.46 yuan/jin, showing a recovery compared to December. The elimination volume decreased gradually in January, and the elimination age was postponed. After the Spring Festival, the elimination price may be in the off - season, and the rebound is limited [9][14][17]. 2.2 Inventory and Replenishment - The inventory of laying hens has reached an inflection point and is expected to decline gradually. The replenishment enthusiasm has weakened since the second half of 2025, and the monthly egg - laying chick output in December 2025 was relatively low compared to the same period in 2024. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in February will continue to decline steadily [19][21]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - In January, the breeding profit recovered significantly. After eliminating seasonal factors, the current profit is still slightly low. It is expected that the era of negative profit in egg - laying hen breeding will continue for some time, and future profits will mainly operate at a low level [27][28]. Demand Side - In January, egg sales continued to be weak year - on - year but showed a slight month - on - month recovery. After the Spring Festival, the overall demand will remain weak. The current inventory has been significantly reduced. The prices of pigs and vegetables are relatively low, which has a certain substitution effect on egg demand [30]. - The pig price will remain at a relatively low level for some time. The vegetable price is at a medium - low level compared to the same period in previous years and is expected to have no positive impact on egg prices [31][33]. Later Outlook and Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to decline gradually, and the overall demand after the Spring Festival will be weak [38]. - **Viewpoint**: The spot price peak is expected to appear soon, and attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan after the Spring Festival. The seesaw effect between near - month and far - month futures contracts will continue. The opening price of the spot market after the Spring Festival will greatly affect the subsequent market trend [38][39]. - **Strategy**: For farmers and spot traders, pay attention to the support level of 3 yuan in February. For futures speculators, conduct interval rolling operations before the Spring Festival [39]. Important Variables - The persistence of elimination, the performance of egg prices after the Spring Festival, and feed costs [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market this week saw the futures price of the 2603 contract close lower at 3002 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 44 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The market sentiment has slightly improved as the continuous losses of farmers have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks and an increase in the number of old hens being culled, resulting in a continued decline in the inventory of laying hens. However, the current inventory of laying hens is still at a high level. Recently, the Spring Festival stocking sentiment has reached its peak, leading to a decrease in inventory at all levels, with some inventories being cleared. Traders are more actively purchasing, and the turnover speed has accelerated, causing a significant increase in egg prices and an improvement in farmers' profits. This has led to an increase in the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks and a slight slowdown in the enthusiasm for culling old hens, weakening the expectation of a decline in inventory. From the perspective of the futures market, the market is caught between the boost from the continuous increase in spot prices and the pressure of high inventory, adding to market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The egg futures price of the 2603 contract closed lower at 3002 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 44 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The inventory of laying hens has declined, but the current high inventory, combined with the Spring Festival stocking peak, has led to increased egg prices and improved farmers' profits. This has affected the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks and culling old hens, weakening the expectation of a decline in inventory. The market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures March contract closed lower with a trading volume of 200,487 lots, a decrease of 70,495 lots from the previous week. The net long position of the top 20 decreased from +10,286 to +2,490 [13]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of eggs was reported at 4,111 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 204 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at +1,109 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The spread between the March and May contracts of eggs was reported at - 416 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of January 29, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.6 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.58 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side Inventory and Replenishment**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. - **Laying Hen Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen culling index was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national average culling age of hens was reported at 500 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of January 29, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,376.67 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,140 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of January 23, 2026, the breeding profit per laying hen was reported at 0.11 yuan, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.1 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 9.06 yuan per kilogram [59]. - **Monthly Egg Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2,767.32 tons compared to the same period last year (12,131.40 tons), a year - on - year increase of 22.81%, and an increase of 1,853.21 tons compared to the previous month (13,045.52 tons) [63]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Information on Xiaoming Co., Ltd. includes a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [65].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Near the Spring Festival, the overall spot demand for eggs has been strong, leading to price increases. However, after the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption and the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, egg prices are likely to face pressure. Futures far - month contracts may also face pressure [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the spot price of eggs trended strongly. The average price in major production areas reached a maximum of around 3.94 yuan per catty, and in major sales areas, it reached around 4.22 yuan per catty. The main egg futures contracts also showed strength, with the March contract reaching a maximum of around 3098 [4] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spots is good, and prices are rising. The profit situation is favorable, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased. After the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the good egg prices recently. It is expected that egg prices may be under pressure after the festival. In the futures market, the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, and far - month contracts may face pressure [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, the spot price of eggs was strong. The average price in major production areas reached a maximum of 3.94 yuan per catty, and in major sales areas it reached around 4.22 yuan per catty. The March egg futures contract was strong, mainly affected by pre - festival stocking and rising spot prices. However, considering that the March contract is a post - festival contract, egg prices are usually low at the beginning of the year. Also, the enthusiasm for culling has started to decrease. Although the current in - production inventory has decreased, it is still at a high level, and the market's concerns about future egg prices limited the increase in the futures price [11] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was 39.59 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In January, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 42.81% (at a relatively low level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 43.38% (at a medium level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 13.81% (at a relatively high level in the same period over the years). The egg - laying rate in January changed little and was at a low level in the same period over the years, currently about 92.67%. It is expected to gradually recover as the weather gets colder in the future. The hatch volume of laying hen chicks in December changed little month - on - month and decreased by 13.9% year - on - year. The price of chicklings in January was at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market was 3.22 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 yuan per chick. Previously, due to weak egg prices and average peak - season demand, breeding profits were in the red, and the market's enthusiasm for culling increased, leading to an increase in the culling volume. According to Zhuochuang data, the culling volume of laying hens in major production areas nationwide in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of January 23 was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week [12][13][15] - Demand side: Near the Spring Festival, egg consumption was good. As of the week of January 23, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas nationwide was 7210 tons, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week, and at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. From the perspective of catering revenue, in 2025 from January to December, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.5136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, the absolute value of catering revenue in December was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [22] - Inventory: As of the week of January 23, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [22] - Cost and breeding profit: The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In January, the corn price was 2377 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3184 yuan per ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2619 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.88 yuan per catty of eggs. As of January 23, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.44 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.31 yuan per catty from the previous week. On January 16, the expected breeding profit of laying hens was - 13.63 yuan per hen, a decrease of 0.51 yuan per catty from the previous week [25] - Substitutes: The vegetable price index continued to rise. On January 28, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 133.98. Vegetable prices have risen significantly recently but are at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. This month, the pork price fluctuated with little overall change. As of January 20, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.69 yuan per kilogram. Overall, the low vegetable prices have a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level pork price also has relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [28] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Near the Spring Festival, the overall spot demand for eggs is good, and prices have risen. The profit situation is favorable, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased. However, after the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption, although the previous inventory situation has improved, the farmers' enthusiasm for culling has weakened due to the good egg prices recently. The pace of capacity reduction may slow down compared to before, and egg prices may be under pressure after the festival. In the futures market, it is expected that the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, and far - month contracts may face pressure. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between the sound of shaking eggs and their freshness, emphasizing that while water sounds can indicate age, scientific methods should be used for accurate assessment [1] Group 1: Freshness Indicators - Fresh eggs have thick egg whites, centered yolks, and air cells typically less than 5 millimeters in diameter, resulting in a firm feel and minimal sound when shaken [1] - The presence of water sounds is often due to prolonged storage leading to the thinning of egg whites, expansion of air cells, and decreased yolk membrane integrity [1] - In rare cases, fresh eggs may produce slight water sounds due to transportation vibrations causing minor yolk membrane ruptures [1] Group 2: Quality Control Measures - Brands like Huang Tian E implement comprehensive quality control to extend egg freshness, including custom feed with probiotics to enhance yolk membrane thickness and controlled environments in chicken coops [1] - Each egg undergoes cleaning, UV sterilization, and manual selection to minimize damage risks, with Huang Tian E establishing a standard for fresh eggs that exceeds national requirements [1] - A full cold chain distribution system is utilized to maintain freshness and reduce the likelihood of noticeable water sounds in eggs [1] Group 3: Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to use a combination of shaking, light observation, and checking the eggshell's white frost to assess freshness [1] - Selecting brands with strict quality control and storing eggs with the larger end facing up can significantly prolong their shelf life [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current contradiction in the egg market lies in the intense game between the "strong reality" driven by Spring Festival stocking and the "weak expectation" of post - festival production capacity and demand. The short - term unsustainable stocking affects the long - term restoration of the supply - demand balance [2]. - In the short term, the egg price will show a downward trend as the demand - driving effect weakens during the late stage of pre - festival stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100 [10]. - In the long term, the improvement of short - term profitability delays the progress of egg - laying hen production capacity reduction. Market expectations are that festival stocking in the second and third quarters will boost demand. The increase in chick prices stimulates farmers' replenishment willingness, which may affect egg production 4 - 5 months later [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The "strong reality" in the egg spot market is driven by pre - Spring Festival stocking, with fast market sales, low inventory, and rising prices, which improves the profitability of the breeding sector. However, this also leads to concerns about future egg supply as farmers are less willing to cull hens and more willing to replenish chicks [2]. - The near - term trading logic is that pre - festival stocking drives up the spot price of eggs, but as the Spring Festival approaches, food processing plants have basically completed restocking, and subsequent demand is expected to be pessimistic [4]. - The far - term trading logic involves factors such as the delay of production capacity reduction, expected improvement in demand during festivals, and the impact of chick replenishment on future egg production [12]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Judgment**: The current stage is the late stage of pre - festival stocking, with weakening demand - driving effect and egg price support. The egg price will show a downward trend in the short term [10]. - **Price Range**: The egg price will fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Enter the market with a light position when the price drops to around 2900 and take profits when it reaches around 3100 [10]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the basis strategy [11]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.35% and a historical percentile of 24.75% over three years [13]. - **Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting egg futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract selections, trading directions, recommended proportions, and suggested entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens continued to decline, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. The increase in the number of old hens slaughtered and the decrease in the number of newly - opened laying hens led to a reduction in egg supply in January. In January, the prices of corn and soybean meal, the main feed raw materials, increased, driving up the feed price. The increase in egg prices far exceeded the increase in costs, resulting in profitable egg - laying hen breeding [14]. - **Negative Information**: In February, as food processing enterprises and schools go on holiday, market demand will gradually weaken. Although the supply of newly - opened laying hens in January may decrease, the high inventory of laying hens is still supported by farmers' reluctance to sell, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the egg market in February. The average egg price is expected to drop by 0.90 - 1.00 yuan per catty [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation This week, the opening price of the main egg 03 contract was 3072 yuan per 500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3046 yuan per 500KG at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.85%. The position was 271,000 contracts, an increase of 7784 contracts compared with last week [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The overall egg spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 2 spread shows a back structure, it is a normal seasonal pattern, and the overall structure is contango [18]. - **Basis Structure**: As the number of culled hens increases, the spot market is strong, the 01 basis expands significantly, and the far - month basis also strengthens [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the profit of egg - laying hen breeding is gradually recovering, approaching the cost line. The seasonality is still the lowest in the past five years, and farmers have an incentive to cull hens. This week, the breeding profit remains in a loss state but is about to turn a profit. Feed prices have rebounded, and the breeding cost has increased. If the current breeding profit continues to be in a loss state, farmers' motivation to recover losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of hens [24]. 3.5 This Week's Supply and Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The proportion of main - producing laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve laying hens and hens to be slaughtered decreased. The proportion of laying hens over 450 days old decreased to 8.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%; the proportion of main - producing laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 79.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%; the proportion of reserve laying hens under 120 days old decreased to 12.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.22%. The egg - laying rate of laying hens remained flat month - on - month [27]. - **Chick Situation**: In December, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales of commercial - generation chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information were about 39.59 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The improvement in egg - laying hen breeding profitability, the strong rise in egg and old - hen prices, and the turn to profit in breeding (this week's average weekly egg profit was about 0.15 yuan) boosted farmers' confidence in replenishing chicks. The chick orders of breeding chicken enterprises are generally scheduled until the end of February and early March, and some are scheduled until mid - March [29][32]. - **Culled Hen Situation**: There is a divergence between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data on culled hens. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease in culled hens, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase in culled hens this month, and the market's divergence on the data is increasing [30]. 3.5.2 Consumption Situation The sales volume of eggs in the main sales areas decreased, and the arrival volume of eggs at the Guangdong wholesale market decreased [33]. 3.5.3 Inventory Situation This week, the inventory in the production and circulation links is still at a low level in recent years, but with the start of restocking, it increased week - on - week by 0.42 days and 0.5 days respectively [35].