免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 2876 | -12 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -44712 | 4875 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) | -505 | 7 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 190357 | 4038 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | ...

鸡蛋周报：需求不及预期 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 87/87/87 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价3元/斤，较上周五变化不大，主销区均价3.22元/斤，较上周五变化不大。周内全国鸡蛋市场上半 周市场情绪稍有好转，盼涨 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 鸡蛋市场周报 老鸡淘汰略有放缓 鸡蛋近月继续走低 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 图2、大商所鸡蛋指数期货前二十名持仓变化 来源：大商所 wind 来源：大商所 瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收跌，2603合约收盘价为2946元/500千克，较前一周-78元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，养殖端仍处于亏损状态，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远 期价格。不过，当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡淘汰略有放缓，市场氛围仍然偏悲观，高 产能仍然牵制近月市场价格表现。本周期价继续走低。远月合约博弈于弱现实与强预期之 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg industry in 2026 has the conditions to start an upward cycle as the capacity reduction has begun in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to continuous losses, but the sustainability of the rising cycle is doubtful because of the rapid increase in market scale and the large - scale idle capacity of leading groups [2][32] - The industry's cash - flow consumption has led to a decline in the supply in 2026, and on the demand side, the market will return to normal with stable regular consumption, but the impact of price increases on consumption needs to be considered [3][32][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Egg Futures and Spot Price Trend Review - The 2025 egg futures and spot prices resonated, with the market pessimistic due to the confirmed supply increase. The price trend was divided into five stages: 1 - 2 months, expectation - dominated and sideways; 3 - 5 months, futures and spot prices resonated and were anchored to cost; 6 - 7 months, futures and spot prices deviated with expectations leading; 8 - 10 months, the peak season was not prosperous, and both futures and spot prices declined; 11 - 12 months, the elimination increased, and the market traded the cycle reversal in advance [6][7][8][9][10] 2. 2026 Egg Operation Logic: Cycle May Reverse, but the Industrial Structure Does Not Support Sustained Profits 2.1 Supply Side: The Capacity Decline Trend Is Confirmed, and the Supply Decreases - The industry has entered the cash - flow loss stage, and the capacity reduction cycle has started. After 4 years of profit from 2021 - 2024, the industry entered a loss in 2025, and the capacity reduction cycle began in the fourth quarter [13] - The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has decreased, but large - scale farming may lead to accelerated replenishment in the next round. The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has decreased since August 2025, and the存栏 is expected to decline in the first half of 2026. However, referring to the pig industry, the egg industry may accelerate the replenishment rhythm [16] - The elimination of old chickens has accelerated, but the total elimination is still insufficient. The elimination of old chickens has accelerated in November 2025, but the corporate side may extend the elimination rhythm. The存栏 structure has been optimized, and the egg - laying rate of the newly replenished chicks in 2026 is expected to increase [21][22] 2.2 Demand Side: Consumption Support May Fall Short of Expectations - The seasonal consumption pattern of eggs continues. Egg consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics, and the festival consumption has a significant short - term price - boosting effect. The inventory fluctuations in 2025 were larger than in 2024 [25] - The strong egg consumption did not continue. In 2025, egg consumption was strong in the off - season but weak in the peak season. The large amount of cold - storage eggs in the off - season overdrafted the peak - season demand, and the per - capita consumption reached the upper limit [27] - The pig cycle has entered a downward stage, and the substitution demand has weakened. In 2025, the pig price declined, and the substitution effect of pork on eggs increased, suppressing egg consumption [29][30] 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.1 Conclusion - The capacity reduction cycle has started, and the cycle is expected to reverse. In 2026, the industry has the conditions to start an upward cycle, but the sustainability of the rising cycle is doubtful [32] - On the supply side, the supply in 2026 will decrease year - on - year due to over 8 months of losses in 2025 and the acceleration of social elimination [32] - On the demand side, the cold - storage egg volume in 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025, and regular consumption will be stable, but the impact of price increases on consumption needs to be considered [33] 3.2 Investment Outlook - In the first half of 2026, it is in the consumption off - season, with high inventory and young chicken age. The spot price is expected to fluctuate between 2,400 - 4,000 yuan/500 kg. In the second half of the year, if there is over - elimination in the first half and the impact of high temperature on the egg - laying rate, the price may rise significantly, with the core fluctuation range of the spot price expected to be 3,300 - 4,700 yuan/ton and the futures index between 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [35] - In terms of trading strategies, go long on peak - season contracts at low prices in the first half of the year, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the spot price reaches the peak in the third quarter. The industry should arrange hedging according to expected profits [35]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 鸡蛋市场周报 市场情绪仍然悲观 鸡蛋近月再度下探 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收跌，2603合约收盘价为3024元/500千克，较前一周-56元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，养殖端仍处于亏损状态，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远 期价格。不过，当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡尚未出现超淘，高产能仍然牵制近月市场 价格表现。总体而言，市场博弈于弱现实与强预期之间。短期近月合约或处于宽幅震荡状态,可轻 仓试多远月。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 来源：大商所 wind 来源：大商所 瑞达期货研究院 ...

Group 1 - The freshness of eggs is determined from the breeding stage, influenced by shell integrity, microbial content, and nutritional stability, all closely related to the farming environment [1] - High-quality eggs are produced through meticulous farming practices, such as those employed by Huang Tian E, which include controlled environments and regular feed testing to ensure health and nutrition [1] - The optimal storage temperature for eggs is between 2-5°C, and any fluctuation beyond 5°C can lead to moisture loss and affect freshness [1] Group 2 - Strict quality control is essential for long-term freshness, involving automated multi-dimensional inspections to eliminate defective eggs and ensure compliance with safety standards [2] - Huang Tian E conducts approximately 700,000 self-inspections annually, with 12,000 eggs tested monthly to maintain high nutritional and freshness standards [2] Group 3 - Consumers are advised to select eggs based on visual and tactile cues, preferring clean, glossy shells and brands that indicate production dates and safety standards [3] - Proper storage involves keeping eggs with the large end up at 2-5°C and avoiding proximity to strong-smelling foods, with a recommendation to consume opened eggs within seven days [3] - Huang Tian E's full-chain freshness approach sets a benchmark in the industry, emphasizing the importance of reliable brands and scientific storage for optimal taste and safety [3]

华联期货分析称，短期来看，生产成本及养殖环节的惜售心理对蛋价形成底部支撑。不过市场需求偏 弱，局部地区库存有所增加，各环节观望情绪浓厚，同时气温下降带动产蛋率回升，鸡蛋供给压力并未 缓解，蛋价反弹乏力。养殖端进入亏损周期，补栏信心受挫，普遍选择顺势淘汰适龄老鸡。12月在产蛋 鸡存栏量预计将继续下降。主力合约延续区间宽幅震荡，参考运行区间3000~3300；中期供需预期向 好，可轻仓买入远月合约的看涨期权。 光大期货表示，随着本周现货价格反弹，供给充裕限制蛋价反弹。从目前已公布的数据来看，对未来供 应仍持缓慢下降的预期，短期期价震荡调整，建议暂时观望，等待后市操作机会。持续关注养殖端补 栏、淘汰意愿变化对产能的影响。 正信期货指出，屠宰开工上升和冻品库存走高对鸡蛋需求有支撑，但腌腊备货进度偏慢，整体需求未形 成规模性增长，短期内鸡蛋价格可能维持震荡。 11月12日，国内期市农副产品板块涨跌参半。其中，鸡蛋期货主力合约开盘报3130.00元/500千克，今日 盘中低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，鸡蛋主力最高触及3134.00元，下方探低3063.00元，跌幅达 2.41%。 目前来看，鸡蛋行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3153 | 3124 | 29 | 01-05 | -398 | -457 | 59 | | JD05 | 3551 | 3581 | -30 | 05-09 | -503 | -489 | -14 | | JD09 | 4054 | 4070 | -16 | 09-01 | 901 | 946 | -45 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.5 ...

反弹抛空 鸡蛋月报 2025/12/05 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：11月至今，国内蛋价整体呈冲高后回落走势，月内供应充足，需求端提振有限，供需宽松下市场参与心态谨慎，仅低价时因低温容 易储存而表现惜售，月内亏损持续，淘鸡走量加快，鸡龄进一步下滑；具体看，黑山大码蛋价月跌0.1元至2.8元/斤，月内最低2.7元/斤， 馆陶月跌0.13元至2.6/斤，月内最低2.58元/斤，销区回龙观月跌0.04元至3.12元/斤，东莞月持平于2.83元/斤；展望本月，尽管淘鸡走量 加快，但高峰在产规模偏大，鸡龄下降缓慢，整体供应压力依旧，需求端受下游备货谨慎影响整体表现一般，除局部备货时反弹外，预计整 体重心呈缓慢下行走势为主。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续低迷，因季节性因素，11月份补栏环比小幅增加 ...

鸡蛋周报：需求表现一般 蛋价有所回落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 221/221/221 208/218/234 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.8元/斤，较上周五下跌0.12元/斤，主销区均价3.13元/斤，较上周五下跌0.08元/斤。本周主产区价格仍在低 ...