大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3606 | 3589 | 17 | 01-05 | 209 | 193 | 16 | | JD05 | 3397 | 3396 | 1 | 05-09 | -233 | -266 | 33 | | JD09 | 3630 | 3662 | -32 | 09-01 | 24 | 73 | -49 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.47 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 05鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 0.01 | | 09鸡蛋/玉 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货低位小幅回升 期价震荡收高 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：轻仓试多。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收高，08合约收盘价为3618元/500千克，较前一周+62元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：随着节后鸡蛋步入季节性需求淡季，且目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新 开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足。同时，受湿热天气影响，鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经销商采 购谨慎，蛋价持续处于同期偏低水平，养殖端也持续处于亏损状态。不过，价格来到相对低位后， 老鸡淘汰进程有所加快，降低存栏预期。盘面来看，期价跌至低估值区域后，近来有止跌回暖倾 向。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 来源：大商所 wind 图2、大商所鸡蛋指 ...

正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格持续下降， 淘鸡日龄持续下降，大小码价差小幅上升，鸡苗价格持 | 偏空 | | | 续下降。 | | | | 近十年统计结果显示，有6次梅雨季现货价格低点出现在7月上旬，3次出现在6月下旬，所以6-7 | | | | 月出现低点的概率较大。通常7-8月现货出现上涨，主要因为梅雨季淘鸡加速、高温天气导致产 | | | | 蛋率下降、中秋节前备货需求增加的影响。但目前淘鸡相对蛋价处于历史同期高位，7月20日入 | | | | 伏之前产蛋率也不会快速下滑，节前备货还未到启动的时候，所以季节性反弹还为时尚早。 | | | 需求 | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量基本持平，流通库存和生产环节库存小幅上升。 | 偏空 | | | 根据气象部门最新预测，今年南方梅雨季节时间长、降雨量大，鸡蛋质量面临较大挑战，或导致 | | | | 今年6月份需求低于往年同期。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润持续走低，明显低于综合成本，处于近4年同期最低水平。 蛋鸡行业经过连 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently in a situation where supply is relatively abundant due to high laying - hen inventory and new - laying hens coming into production. The demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the hot and humid weather increases storage costs, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level, and the breeding side is in a loss state. However, the supply - loose expectation has been reflected in the futures price, and if the spot price remains low, it may increase the enthusiasm for old - hen culling and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the long - term price. The spot price drags down the near - term futures price, while the long - term contracts show a tendency to stop falling and recover. The strategy suggestion is to lightly test long positions in long - term contracts [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures 08 contract bottomed out and rebounded, with a closing price of 3556 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 3 yuan/500 kilograms compared to the previous week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: After the festival, the egg market enters the seasonal demand off - peak. With high laying - hen inventory and new - laying hens coming into production, the supply is sufficient. The hot and humid weather increases storage costs, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing. Egg prices are at a low level, and the breeding side is in a loss state. If the spot price remains low, it may affect the laying - hen inventory, which is beneficial to long - term prices. The spot price drags down the near - term futures price, while the long - term contracts show signs of recovery [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Lightly test long positions in long - term contracts [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 08 contract bottomed out and rebounded, with a position of 228,245 lots, an increase of 40,890 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 7397, and the net short position increased slightly compared to last week [17]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [21]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 2608 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 187 yuan/500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 948 yuan/ton [27]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of egg futures was reported at 37 yuan/500 kilograms, at the lowest level in the same period [31]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of June 12, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.33 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.34 yuan/kg [37]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new - chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [42]. - **Supply Side - Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age was 510 days [48]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of June 12, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2406.27 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2880 yuan/ton [52]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of June 6, 2025, the egg - hen breeding profit was - 0.44 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - hen compound feed was 2.74 yuan/kg [59]. - **Egg - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices**: As of June 6, 2025, the average price of egg - hen chicks in the main production areas was 4.1 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.26 yuan/kg [61]. - **Egg Exports**: In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,792.51 tons, an increase of 1680.12 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 15.12%, and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons compared to the previous month [67]. 3.4 Representative Company - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. includes a graph of its price - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [69].

内容概要：鸡蛋是居民日常饮食中重要的蛋白质来源，随着国民生活水平的提高，消费者对鸡蛋的认知 不断加深，越来越注重鸡蛋的品质和营养价值，有机蛋、无抗生素蛋等高品质鸡蛋需求与日俱增，此 外，快节奏的生活方式促使消费者对液蛋、蛋粉等加工蛋制品的需求增加，带动深加工领域鸡蛋市场需 求持续增长，据统计，2024年我国鸡蛋需求量达3062万吨，同年产量达3076万吨，市场规模达3879亿 元，产品均价约为12.67元/千克。 上市企业：晨科农牧（833239.NQ）、温氏股份（300498）、欧福蛋业（839371）、艾格生物 （837838）、荣达禽业（834797） 相关企业：北京德青源农业科技股份有限公司、福建光阳蛋业股份有限公司、广东壹号食品股份有限公 司、湖北神地农业科贸有限公司、湖北神丹健康食品有限公司、金翼食品（吉林）股份有限公司、吉林 金翼蛋品有限公司、江苏康德蛋业有限公司、江苏天成蛋业有限公司、韩伟集团有限公司、正大蛋业 （山东）有限公司、山西晋龙养殖股份有限公司、四川圣迪乐村生态食品股份有限公司、凤集食品集团 有限公司 关键词：鸡蛋市场政策、鸡蛋产业链、鸡蛋需求量、鸡蛋市场规模、鸡蛋竞争格局、鸡蛋发展 ...

沙门氏菌是威胁食品安全的常见病原体，鸡蛋作为日常高频消费品，其微生物安全至关重要。不少消费 者不禁担忧：中国鸡蛋是否安全？ 日前美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)和美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)调查显示，一起多州沙门氏菌疫 情已导致至少170万枚鸡蛋被召回，这些鸡蛋在2月3日至5月15日期间分销至美国九个州，涵盖沃尔玛和 Safeway等多家连锁超市。截至目前，已有79人感染沙门氏菌，21人入院治疗，且疫情可能不限于已确 认病例的州，实际感染人数或更多。 从养殖源头看，国内部分企业已建立严格的防控体系。以黄天鹅鸡蛋为例，从蛋鸡的祖代就开始切断沙 门氏菌的带入，确保种源干净。黄天鹅在饲料环节，自建饲料工厂并构建严格管控体系，选用优质原 料，避免饲料成为沙门氏菌的传播途径，从饮食端保障蛋鸡健康，减少鸡蛋受污染的可能。 养殖过程中的生物防控也不容忽视。黄天鹅完善的养殖场生物防控体系，从鸡舍环境、养殖人员卫生、 饮水安全、空气流通到鸡群健康监控等多个维度，全方位抵御沙门氏菌侵入。例如，对鸡舍定期消毒、 规范养殖人员操作流程、实时监测鸡群健康状况等，尽可能为蛋鸡创造无菌或少菌的生长环境。 在检测方面，黄天鹅采用全链路大 ...

Group 1: Economic Development and Agricultural Innovation - The average household savings in Hai'an is 200,000 yuan, ranking among the top three in the province, highlighting the region's economic strength [1] - Hai'an is recognized for its modern agricultural practices, focusing on "industrial thinking" to promote common prosperity through a dual-driven approach of "industry + employment" [1][2] - The local government aims to increase the value of agricultural products, with a specific goal of raising the price of eggs by 0.2 yuan per kilogram, which could generate an additional 1 billion yuan for farmers [2][3] Group 2: Agricultural Value Chain and Employment - Hai'an has developed a comprehensive agricultural value chain, producing over 240,000 tons of eggs annually, with a total output value exceeding 10 billion yuan from the egg industry alone [3] - The region's agricultural industry cluster generated nearly 50 billion yuan in total output last year, significantly contributing to local employment [3] - Hai'an has established 19 standardized employment service stations, helping 2,640 unemployed individuals find jobs, emphasizing the importance of employment in rural revitalization [6] Group 3: Technological Integration and Cultural Development - The introduction of digital agriculture has led to an average increase of 30 kg per mu in crop yield and a cost saving of 100 yuan per mu, enhancing farmers' income [5] - Hai'an is promoting cultural enrichment through a public cultural service network, with numerous performances and cultural events reaching rural areas [7] - The local government is committed to building a national rural revitalization demonstration county, focusing on increasing agricultural efficiency and farmers' income [7]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 1/7 农产品日报 2025 年 06 月 10 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3591 | 3565 | 26 | 01-05 | 237 | 245 | -8 | | JD05 | 3354 | 3320 | 34 | 05-09 | -301 | -354 | 53 | | JD09 | 3655 | 3674 | -19 | 09-01 | 64 | 109 | -45 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | ...

25年3-4月补栏量依旧较高，对应25年7-8月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力 增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。 6月5日全国鸡蛋生产环节平均库存0.94天，较前一天增0.02天；流通环节库存1.03天，较前一天持平。 消息面回顾： 周四，主产区鸡蛋均价为2.84元/斤，较前日持平，主销区鸡蛋均价为3.06元/斤，较前日持平。鸡蛋单 斤成本约3.5元，同比下降3.85%，窄幅震荡。 截至2025年6月6日当周，鸡蛋期货主力合约收于2859元/500千克，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持 5300手。 本周（6月3日-6月6日）市场上看，鸡蛋期货周内开盘报2930元/500千克，最高触及2933元/500千克，最 低下探至2856元/500千克，周度涨跌幅达-2.46%。 机构观点汇总： 方正中期期货：基本面上，当前整体消费即将进入淡季，鸡蛋将会再次进入年度供强需弱，蛋价迎来季 节性次低点。2025年上半年蛋鸡产业周期可能继续下行，蛋价中期跌破养殖成本的概率仍然较高。操作 上，农产品整体氛围出现反复，拖累蛋价重心下移，鸡蛋期价绝对价格偏低，0 ...

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-06-04 将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性，对远期价格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 盘面来看，现货价格持续处于低位，拖累期价总体偏弱，不过，远月跌势明显放缓，短期暂且观望。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 2877 | -20 ...