以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 一、看懂市场"体温"：全A估值仪表盘 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 在过去的几个月里，沉寂多年之后的市场，迎来了结构性牛市，以芯片、AI、算力等为代表的硬科技领域实现了广泛上涨，很多指数的估值温度不 断上升。 今天，我们一起重新仔细回顾估值表的使用方式，更好地应对市场的不同周期。 对新手来说，可以把全市场温度理解成市场的"体温表"。温度高，说明市场热；温度低，说明市场冷。 当低于20度时，往往是我们定投的好时机；而当高于60度时，意味着市场逐步进入偏热，机会开始分化，需要提高警惕。 我们一起看最新一期的全市场估值温度... 1）全市场温度 代表了当下A股市场的温度高低，0度最低、100度最高， 当下为59.86度，中性偏热 。该指标采用代表全市场的沪深全A的估值，计算方式为： （指数市盈率百 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that technical analysis is not inherently useless; rather, it is often misapplied or misunderstood. The current market signals indicate increasing risks, necessitating a reduction in stock holdings and positions [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent market movements show a divergence between the strong performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the underlying technical indicators, suggesting a potential top divergence [1]. - The market's support relies heavily on specific sectors such as computing power, energy storage, and metals. A decline in these sectors could lead to significant market downturns [1]. - The brokerage sector is described as dependent on retail investor sentiment, with overall trading volume indicating a lack of substantial growth potential [1]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The article notes that despite a recent volume breakout in the Shanghai Composite Index, there are concerns about the sustainability of this upward movement due to underlying divergence signals [1]. - The average stock price index shows a divergence in volume and price, indicating a potential peak in the near term [1]. - Market sentiment remains low, with most stocks experiencing downward pressure, while only a few sectors and stocks continue to show strength [1]. Group 3: Psychological Factors - Many investors are trapped in a mindset of expecting new leading sectors to emerge quickly, but the reality is that new leaders often arise from periods of correction [2].

A股节后首日喜迎开门红，但有一只大牛股的二十万股东，却一开盘就被关进跌停板。 海南华铁，一场37亿算力大订单泡汤引发的资本闹剧，究竟 是怎么回事？ ...

2025年前三季度，在市场结构性行情主导下，公募基金业绩呈现出明显分化格局。其中，超50只基金净 值实现翻倍，部分科技和医药主题基金成为最大赢家，而重仓传统金融和周期板块的基金业绩表现则相 对一般。与此同时，市场避险情绪依旧高涨，国际现货金价不断创新高，全市场黄金ETF（交易型开放 式指数基金）业绩和份额实现双增。 数据显示，截至9月30日，全市场主动股票型基金年内平均收益率达34.54%，偏股混合型基金年内平均 收益率达34.13%，被动指数基金平均收益率为27.56%。对比来看，主动权益类基金表现较为出色，充 分体现出在结构性行情中主动投资的优势。与此同时，黄金ETF年内平均收益率更是达到41.04%。 业内人士向《国际金融报》记者表示，市场行情或将继续分化，四季度主线有望继续维持科技和创新药 行情。不过，前期涨幅较高的品种可能有较大波动，投资者可从主线行情中关注"高切低"的方向。 而主动权益类基金的高光表现离不开个别赛道的爆发，比如人工智能、算力、人形机器人等大科技赛 道，以及创新药等赛道。前三季度业绩领跑全市场的是永赢科技智选A，区间收益率达到194.49%，排 在第二的汇添富香港优势精选A同期收益率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The termination of a significant 3.69 billion yuan contract by Hainan Huatie raises concerns about the company's operational capabilities and transparency in information disclosure, which could impact investor confidence and market reputation [1][2][3] Group 1: Contract Termination - Hainan Huatie announced the termination of a 3.69 billion yuan (including tax) computing power order due to significant changes in market conditions since the contract was signed, and no purchase orders were received [1] - The company has not clarified whether the responsibility for the contract termination lies with them or the client, leading to uncertainty in the market [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Business and Reputation - The termination of the contract raises questions about the viability of Hainan Huatie's computing power business narrative, as the company previously emphasized its stable equipment delivery and operational capabilities [2] - The company's stock price surged from around 5 yuan to approximately 10 yuan following positive investor sentiment towards its computing power business, indicating a significant increase in investor interest and capital inflow [2][3] Group 3: Investor Relations and Employee Morale - Hainan Huatie has received considerable attention from institutional investors, with at least 53 research reports published this year, and multiple investor meetings held, highlighting the importance of maintaining investor trust [3] - The termination of the contract could negatively affect employee morale, especially if key personnel have not yet sold their shares after exercising stock options, potentially leading to financial losses [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for low-position industries to rebound in the current market environment, which is characterized by structural fluctuations and a focus on risk aversion and value investing [1][6]. Industry Recommendations - The report identifies four key low-position industries with marginal improvement potential: Environmental Protection, Non-Metallic Materials, Biological Products, and Automotive [5][6]. - The storage sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with rising prices for storage chips indicating the start of a new upward cycle, supported by demand from the Sora2 release [6]. - Precious metals continue to hold strong investment value, driven by short-term interest rate expectations and long-term geopolitical risks, which are expected to support gold prices [6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for valuation recovery as previous negative factors have diminished, making it a focus for investors [6]. - The environmental protection industry benefits from favorable policies and a rebound in related sectors [6]. - Non-metallic materials are supported by supply-side policies and demand-side initiatives, such as the revitalization of Xinjiang [6]. - The biological products sector is expected to gain from new productivity policies and the recovery of the innovative pharmaceutical sector [6]. - The automotive industry is benefiting from consumer incentives and synergies within the robotics supply chain [6]. Performance Indicators - The report provides detailed performance indicators for the identified low-position industries, showing positive trends in various metrics such as PPI and production volumes [7][10]. - For example, the waste resource utilization industry shows a 5.74% increase in PPI, while the automotive sector has seen a 3.10% increase in cumulative sales [7][10]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend with structural differentiation, highlighting the importance of identifying and investing in undervalued sectors [1][6].

Market Overview - On the first trading day after the holiday (October 9), the market opened high and continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points, indicating a strong performance in the technology sector [1] - The cloud computing ETF, Huatai-PineBridge (159273), saw a slight increase of 0.15%, with a trading volume exceeding 45 million yuan during the session [1] Fund Performance - The Huatai-PineBridge cloud computing ETF has attracted significant investment, with over 1.4 billion yuan raised in the past 20 days, bringing its total assets to over 1.76 billion yuan as of September 30 [1] - The ETF's performance is leading among its peers, reflecting strong investor interest in cloud computing and AI-related sectors [1] AI and Cloud Computing Developments - OpenAI has announced a strategic partnership with AMD to deploy 6 GW of AMD GPU computing power for its next-generation AI infrastructure, highlighting the ongoing investment in AI capabilities [1][4] - The global AI market remains robust, with North American cloud service providers planning to increase capital expenditures by over 37 billion USD in the 2025 fiscal year, a 40% year-on-year increase [4] Domestic Market Trends - Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to invest over 450 billion yuan in AI computing power by 2025, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing AI capabilities domestically [5] - The domestic market is witnessing accelerated industrialization of super-node computing clusters, with companies like Alibaba and ZTE showcasing advanced AI server technologies [5] Stock Performance of Key Companies - Notable stock movements include a more than 3% increase in Zhongke Shuguang and Inspur Information, while Alibaba saw a decline of over 2% [2][3] - The performance of key stocks within the cloud computing ETF reflects mixed results, with some companies experiencing gains while others faced losses [2][3] Future Outlook - The demand for optical modules is increasing, driven by collaborations between leading chip manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD with CSPs, indicating a positive trend for the optical module market [6] - The ongoing expansion of large AI models is expected to accelerate capital expenditures in overseas data centers, while domestic advancements in AI applications are anticipated to gain momentum [6][7]

10月首个交易日，A股市场延续强势表现，沪指早盘持续冲高，时隔十年重返3900点关口。截至午间休市，上证指数报3931.07点，涨 1.24%；深证成指、创业板指分别涨1.75%和1.77%；科创50指数半日大涨5.59%。 A股主要股指早盘表现 受假期国际金价再创新高提振，A股贵金属板块"无悬念"高开，四川黄金一字涨停。截至10月8日收盘，COMEX黄金期货主力合约报 4060.6美元/盎司，国庆假期累计上涨4.45%。 可控核聚变概念早盘掀涨停潮，哈焊华通、中洲特材等收获20%幅度涨停。据央视新闻报道，10月1日，中国核聚变装置BEST建设取得 关键突破，重达400余吨的底座成功安装就位，将用来承载总重约6700吨的BEST主机，标志着这一大国重器主机全面开建。 跌幅方面，前期算力热门股海南华铁遭遇一字跌停，跌停板封单超过293万手。9月30日晚间，海南华铁公告称，全资子公司华铁大黄蜂 与杭州X公司签订的近37亿元算力订单解除。（详见603300，算力订单取消，章建平已撤退，上交所紧急发函！） 可控核聚变概念早盘涨幅排名 黄金股开盘大涨 A股黄金股开盘大涨。截至午盘，申万贵金属指数上涨7.89%，涨幅居所 ...

节后四季度电子行业投资机会梳理 20251007 摘要 算力需求持续增长，除英伟达外，AMD、ATC 等厂商或将获得更多市场 份额，海外 ASIC 和国产算力存在补涨机会，A 股通富微电及 PCB、液 冷产业链值得关注。 华为升腾系列芯片 2025 年表现低于预期，但最新发布的 950、960、970 系列在生态兼容性和技术支持上取得进展，预计 2026 年华为升腾产业链将迎来增长。 PCB 领域正焦倍版和预埋电容等新技术值得关注，液冷技术因散热密度 增加和节能需求将持续发展，英维克、飞荣达等公司存在潜在机会。 存储行业三季度价格环比二季度增长显著，业绩表现亮眼，DRAM 和 SSD 价格持续提升，产业链机会包括 SSD、DRAM 以及 HDD 领域。 美股 HPD 表现推动股价上涨，HDD 短缺导致价格上涨，企业加速转向 SSD，尽管 HDD 单单位容量成本较低，但 SSD 在企业级存储速度上具 有优势，国内厂商 ESSD 解决方案预计明年量产。 存储行业本轮周期由供需共振驱动，超越上一轮周期，近期 DRAM 和 SSD 价格均有所提升，10 月第一周和 9 月下旬期间 SSD 涨幅较明显。 端侧设备方面， ...

2024年四季度以来，A股市场走出了一轮结构性回暖行情，市场情绪逐步修复，投资机会在多条主线中 交替演绎。根据同花顺最新统计，截至9月24日的过去一年间，沪深300指数累计上涨36.22%，而同期 主动偏股型基金指数(932055)涨幅高达53.71%，显著跑赢大盘。这一数据不仅反映出主动管理型基金整 体业绩的强劲反弹，也凸显出基金经理在震荡市中的选股能力与策略执行力。 在对过去一年全市场主动权益类基金(包括股票型与混合型基金，剔除偏债混合、股债平衡、指数及指 数增强产品)的全面梳理中，我们发现：在全市场超4300只产品中，仅有58只基金实现了超过150%的收 益率，堪称"头部中的头部"。而其中，基金经理赵强所管理的三只产品悉数入选，成为本轮行情中极少 数能够实现"全系领先"的投资代表，展现出卓越的策略一致性与业绩爆发力。 实力验证：老将执舵，以持续业绩见证价值 赵强先生，一位拥有22年从业经验的资深战将，自2003年踏入基金行业，先后在华安基金、国金基金、 英大基金、中欧基金等机构担任投研要职，积累了完整的牛熊周期经验与多策略管理能力。他自2014年 起管理公募基金，2015年兼任专户投资，兼具公募的体系化 ...