专题报告 2025-07-14 白糖：下半年的进口供应压力可能增大 杨泽元 农产品研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 国内正处于近 5 年以来最佳的进口利润窗口期，下半年的进口供应压力可能增大。从理论上而 言，目前国内产销情况仍旧不错，且预期下半年进口放量的前提下，近月合约月差应该走正套， 远月合约月差应该走反套，但实际行情走势则相反，使得郑糖 9 月合约的估值相较于其他合约 偏高。假设在外盘价格不出现较大幅度反弹的前提下，后市郑糖价格延续跌势的概率偏大。 报告要点： 农产品研究 | 白糖 下半年进口供应压力预计增大 自今年 5 月中旬以来，国际糖价持续下跌，ICE 原糖 10 月合约价格从最高 18 美分/磅以上开始 走弱，到 7 月初盘中一度跌破 16 美分/磅关口。其中原糖 7 月合约在 6 月底到期交割，价格一 度跌破 15 美分/磅关口。并且，据洲际交易所(ICE)数据显示，到期的 7 月原糖合约交割量总 计为 888 手，约为 45110 吨，这是自 2014 年以来 7 月合约最小交割数量。交割价格低 ...

研究所 郑糖震荡偏强 关注加工糖报价 ——国信期货白糖周报 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 郑糖本周小幅反弹，周度涨幅0.71%。 ICE期糖小幅波动，周度跌幅0.67%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 2025年7月13日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 2、全国产销情况 研究所 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 2024/25榨季，5月累计销糖率72.69%，同比加快6.52个百分点。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 3、食糖进口情况 研究所 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.07.11」 白糖市场周报 内强外内格局凸显， 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 行情分析： 3 本周郑糖2509合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.4%。 国际方面，季风雨季来临，亚洲主要产糖国供应前景良好，加上巴西出口量 同比增加，供应偏松预期抑制原糖价格，不过巴基斯坦计划进口50万吨以及 以及机构调查数据显示6月下半月巴西中南部地区糖产量同比减少，为原糖带 来短期支撑。巴西船运机构Williams数据显示，截至7月9日当周，巴西港口 等待装运食糖的船只数量为90艘，此前一周为80艘。港口等待装运的食糖数 量为368.55万吨，此前一周为320.59万吨。国内方面，内外价格走势分化， 配额外利润窗口打开，进口压力将释放，压制糖价。需求端，夏季消费旺季， 食品饮料行业存有备货需求，冷饮等季节性消费回暖，为价格带来一定支撑。 总体来说，近期国内白糖走势跟随原糖反复波动，不过国内需求回升， ...

Group 1 - The Kenyan government has announced a temporary closure of all sugar factories in the western highlands and lowlands for three months starting from July 11 [1]

Core Insights - The sugar production in Guangxi for the 2024-2025 season is projected to reach 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons year-on-year, with the sugarcane planting area expanding to 11.35 million acres, up by 110,000 acres, reflecting ongoing technological innovation and transformation in the sugar industry [1] - China is a significant producer and consumer of sugar, with an annual production of approximately 10 million tons, accounting for 5.6% of global output, while the consumption ranges from 15 to 16 million tons, indicating a supply gap that needs to be filled through imports [1] - Guangxi, as the largest sugarcane planting base and main sugar production area in China, contributes around 60% of the national sugarcane planting area and sugar production, playing a crucial role in ensuring national sugar supply security [1] Industry Transformation - Historically, the sugar industry's profits were concentrated in the crude processing of "white sugar," characterized by a short industrial chain and low added value. Guangxi is breaking this dependency by developing deep processing of sugarcane and comprehensive utilization of by-products, leading to a diversified development of the sugar industry [2] - The utilization rates of sugarcane by-products in Guangxi have reached 100% for bagasse, molasses, and filter mud, while the comprehensive utilization rate of cane leaves has surpassed 40%, indicating a shift from a raw material-oriented approach to a full-chain value enhancement [2] - The sugar industry in Guangxi is not limited to agriculture but is integrated into regional economic planning, promoting deep collaboration among agriculture, industry, culture, tourism, and technology [2] Cultural and Economic Integration - Guangxi is leveraging its "sugar culture" to develop cultural tourism projects, such as establishing "Sugar Museums" and "Cane Harvest Festivals," attracting urban tourists to experience sugar production, thereby enhancing the emotional value and outreach of traditional sugar industry [3] - The region's proximity to Vietnam provides a natural advantage for cross-border agricultural cooperation, with Guangxi actively promoting a new cross-border model of "Vietnamese sugarcane planting + Guangxi sugar processing," effectively alleviating domestic sugar supply tensions and enhancing regional integration [3] - The quantity of sugarcane imported from Vietnam is expected to nearly double in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting Guangxi's proactive integration into international agricultural division of labor under the RCEP framework [3] High-Quality Development - The high-quality development of Guangxi's sugar industry represents a significant exploration of the modern agricultural path characterized by "technology + green + integration," transitioning from a "sweet economy" to a "strong industry" [4] - This transformation not only boosts farmers' income and rural revitalization but also provides a "Guangxi model" for agricultural transformation across the country, positioning sugarcane as a source of innovation for the future sugar industry [4]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 09 日 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴基斯坦批准进口 50 万吨食糖；巴西中南部 MIX 同比大幅提高；印度季风降水高于 LPA； 巴西 6 月出口 336 万吨，同比增加 5%。中国 5 月进口食糖 35 万吨。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万 吨；CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万吨，消费量为 1590 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业 协会数据显示，截至 5 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1116 万吨（+120 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 811 万 吨（+152 万吨），累计销糖率 72.7%。中国海关数据显示，截至 5 月底，24/25 榨季中国进口食糖 210 万吨 （-104 万吨）。 白糖：巴西出口增加 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently involved in a legal dispute with Guangxi Siyuan Agricultural Development Co., Ltd., with significant financial implications for its future profits [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The lawsuit initiated by Guangxi Siyuan against the company and its subsidiary, Dongjiang Sugar Factory, began in April 2019, with a counterclaim filed by the company in August 2019 [2]. - The case has gone through multiple court rulings, with the latest judgment being a second-instance decision that has upheld certain aspects of the previous rulings while modifying others [4]. - The total amount involved in the litigation includes 4.5621 million yuan for the original lawsuit and 15.2055 million yuan for the counterclaim [1]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The company has recognized a provision for expected liabilities of 4.5621 million yuan in accordance with accounting standards, and an additional provision of 1.4332 million yuan has been made, which is expected to reduce the company's total profit for 2025 by approximately 1.4332 million yuan [1][6]. - The ongoing litigation and its outcomes present uncertainties regarding the company's future profits, and the company plans to apply for a retrial of the case [1][6]. Group 3: Court Rulings - The recent court ruling includes various financial obligations for the company, such as compensating Guangxi Siyuan for losses related to unharvested sugarcane and other damages, totaling significant amounts [4]. - Specific amounts ordered for compensation include 85,200.57 yuan for unharvested sugarcane, 1,346,682 yuan for other damages, and 8,515,166 yuan for production shortfalls [4].

Core Insights - Guangxi Fantang Technology Co., Ltd. has launched the upgraded Fantang E-commerce Platform 2.0, enhancing supply chain efficiency in the sugar industry and innovating the domestic sugar circulation system [1][2] - The platform aims to meet diverse customer needs through various purchasing and sales models, contributing to the construction of a unified national sugar market [1] Group 1: Platform Features - The Fantang E-commerce Platform 2.0 includes five online purchasing and sales models: spot listing, spot auction, category price difference, capacity pre-sale, and Fantang basis zone, addressing the diverse needs of industry participants [1][2] - The platform has expanded its product categories from Guangxi white sugar to include Yunnan sugar, Zhanjiang sugar, beet sugar, and various by-products, enhancing its integrated service capabilities [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Management - The new platform addresses long-standing issues in Guangxi white sugar warehousing, such as high circulation risks and unclear rights for social handling and delivery, by offering comprehensive warehousing and financial services [2] - Services include procurement on behalf of clients, deferred settlement, storage and custody of goods, warehouse receipt handling, quality analysis, and financing services, aiming to standardize warehousing management and improve supply chain efficiency [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic sugar market has undergone significant changes, with increased interconnectivity between domestic and international markets, leading to heightened price volatility and greater demands for risk management capabilities [3] - The Fantang E-commerce Platform is positioned as a crucial link between industry participants, continuously innovating its service system to adapt to evolving market demands and enhance industry development [3]

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 当前市场对 25/26 榨季各主产国的供应前景均较乐观，熊市周期下原糖长期仍有下行压力，短期需关注糖醇价差收窄后巴西制糖比 情况，中期关注巴西压榨进度及印度出口政策，原糖下半年存在阶段性反弹机会。国产糖由于产销进度偏快，短期存在支撑，但三 季度进口放量预期下，郑糖反弹空间受到压制…… 增产周期未改，市场仍有反复 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 白糖半年报 2025-7-6 增产周期未改，市场仍有反复 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 ...

外盘扰动，短期波动加剧 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 瑞达期货研究院 取 更 多 资 讯 「2025.07.04」 白糖市场周报 业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 行情分析： 本周郑糖2509合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.4%。 3 国际方面，国际方面，季风雨季来临，亚洲主要产糖国前景改善，供应偏松 预期抑制原糖价格。巴西船运机构Williams发布数据显示，截至7月2日当周， 巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数量为80艘，此前一周为74艘。港口等待装运 的食糖数量为320.59万吨，此前一周为270.42万吨。国内方面，进口窗口打 开，进口压力有所抬升，压制糖价。需求端，夏季消费旺季，食品饮料行业 存有备货需求，冷饮等季节性消费回暖，为价格带来一定支撑。6月份广西单 月销糖49.53万吨，同比增加7.73万吨。总体来说，近期原糖波动加剧，间接 影响国内白糖走势，由于国内需求回升，表现强于外盘。后期供需双强，价 格波动加剧。后期关注到港和夏季消费情况。交易策略：操作上，建议郑糖 2509合约暂时观望。 未来关注因素： 1、消费情况 2、巴西糖、印度糖出口 关 ...