Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating indicated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The crude oil market maintains a volatile trend, and the price center still faces downward pressure in the medium term, but short - term long positions in futures and options are at a low level, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money options is recommended for hedging [2] - The fuel oil system shows relatively stronger performance than SC, but the expected increase in heavy - quality resources from the Middle East still suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, and the price fluctuates weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in low - level fluctuations [5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC10 contract fell 0.47%. The market faces the pressure of accelerated inventory accumulation after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may shift down in the medium term. Short - term net long positions in overseas futures and options are at a low level. Hold out - of - the - money option double - buy strategies for hedging and then intervene in medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil system is relatively stronger than SC, with cracking strengthening. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the inventory in Fujairah has decreased. The total arrival volume in August increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June. The high - sulfur is relatively under pressure, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has widened [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has a trend of increasing year - on - year decline. Road demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 8 - month sample refinery shipment increased by 8% year - on - year. The BU single - side price follows the SC's fluctuations, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market is stabilizing. Domestic imports and refinery outflows are increasing, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - operating rate. The top pressure is strong under high - level warehouse receipts, and the market is mainly in low - level fluctuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - NYMEX natural gas futures for August closed down by 0.09%, settling at $3.3370 per million British thermal units [1] Group 1: Natural Gas - NYMEX August natural gas futures decreased by 0.09% [1] - The closing price for natural gas futures was $3.3370 per million British thermal units [1] Group 2: Other Commodities - NYMEX August gasoline futures closed at $2.1524 per gallon [1] - NYMEX August heating oil futures settled at $2.3835 per gallon [1]

Group 1 - WTI crude oil futures declined by 0.76%, settling at $66.49 per barrel [1] - NYMEX natural gas futures fell by 0.56%, closing at $3.390 per million British thermal units [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire, with a trend strength of 1; Silver: Continuing to surge, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10] - Copper: Stronger LME copper spot prices support the price, trend strength is 1 [2][12][14] - Aluminum: Bullish, Alumina: Sharp rebound, Aluminum alloy: Bullish oscillation, trend strengths are 1, 0, 0 respectively [2][15][17] - Zinc: Short - term bullish, trend strength is 1 [2][18] - Lead: Bullish, trend strength is 1 [2][20][21] - Tin: Tight present but weak future expectations, trend strength is 0 [2][23][27] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, and the smelting end limits the upside potential; Stainless steel: Weakening supply and demand, steel prices oscillating at low levels, trend strengths are both 0 [2][28][31] - Lithium carbonate: Increasing warehouse receipts but low total volume, short - term oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][32][34] - Industrial silicon: Affected by production cut news, pay attention to the upside space; Polysilicon: Market sentiment fermenting, also pay attention to the upside space, trend strengths are both 0 [2][35][38] - Iron ore: Repeated expectations, range - bound oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][39][40] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation; Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation, trend strengths are both 0 [2][42][45] - Ferrosilicon: Spot sentiment boosting, wide - range oscillation; Silicomanganese: Spot sentiment boosting, wide - range oscillation, trend strengths are both 1 [2][47][49] - Coke: Releasing sentiment, bullish oscillation; Coking coal: Inspection disturbances continuing to ferment, bullish oscillation, trend strengths are 0 and 1 respectively [2][50][53] - Steam coal: Demand yet to be released, wide - range oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][55][58] - Log: As the main contract approaches delivery, the game intensifies, trend strength is 0 [2][59][61] - p - Xylene: Month - spread reverse arbitrage; PTA: Month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG: Unilateral weakening [2][62][63] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2508 was 775.28, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 774.06, with a night - session increase of 0.12%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2508 was 8796, with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the night - session closing price was 8821.00, with a night - session increase of 0.88% [6] - **News**: Fed officials stated they are not ready to support a rate cut in the July meeting; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [7][11] Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Copper main contract was 78,890, with a daily increase of 0.27%, and the night - session closing price was 79790, with a night - session increase of 1.14%. LME copper inventories decreased by 400 to 93,075, and the LME copper cash - 3M spread widened to 319.83 [12] - **News**: India's new copper smelter starts processing ore; JX Metal in Japan cuts refined copper production; China's May copper ore imports decreased by 17.55% month - on - month [12][14] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Aluminum main contract was 20445, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2585. The closing price of SHFE Alumina main contract was 2948, and the closing price of Aluminum alloy main contract was 19715 [15] - **News**: The EU may lower tariffs on the US to reach a trade agreement [17] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22240, with a daily increase of 0.88%. LME zinc inventories decreased by 3025 to 119850 [18] - **News**: Not mentioned Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Lead main contract was 17225, with a daily increase of 0.20%. LME lead inventories decreased by 2000 to 273250 [20] - **News**: Fed officials not ready to support a rate cut in July; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [21] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Tin main contract was 267,270, with a daily increase of 1.62%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 500 to 265,300 [24] - **News**: Fed officials not ready to support a rate cut in July; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Nickel main contract was 120,830, and the closing price of Stainless steel main contract was 12,635 [28] - **News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project enters trial production; A nickel smelter in Indonesia resumes production; An Indonesian cold - rolling mill may continue maintenance [28][31] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,580. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 60,600, up 400 [32] - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 434 to 60745 [33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720, and the closing price of PS2508 was 31,715 [36] - **News**: Longi Green Energy's solar plant in Indonesia starts operation [36] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 12509 contract was 705.5, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The price of PB ore was 701.0, unchanged [39] - **News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0, hitting a new low since February 2022 [39] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of RB2510 was 2,973, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.39% [43] - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and export data are released; a military parade will be held in Beijing [44][45] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Ferrosilicon 2508 was 5422, and the closing price of Manganese Silicon 2508 was 5672 [47] - **News**: The prices of Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon in the spot market increased [47][48] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2509 was 819.5, with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1395.5, with a daily increase of 0.58% [51] - **News**: Northern port coking coal prices are reported; CCI metallurgical coal index changes [51][52] Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading, with a previous opening price of 931.6000 [56] - **News**: Southern port and domestic origin prices of steam coal are reported [57] Log - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 818, with a daily increase of 0.9% [59] - **News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [61] p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Fundamentals**: Not mentioned - **News**: Not mentioned

Group 1 - WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.89%, closing at $64.94 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.80%, ending at $67.68 [1] - NYMEX natural gas futures fell by 1.92%, settling at $3.585 per million British thermal units [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1]. - The soybean meal may oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The corn futures price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1]. - The copper price has rebounded to a key price zone, and investors should pay attention to risk avoidance due to the upcoming May Day holiday [2]. - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3][4]. - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a bullish approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5]. - The coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at low levels with limited upside space [6][7]. - The iron ore 2505 will mainly decline with oscillations in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8]. - The WTI crude oil may have a downward price center in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 65 US dollars per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak demand [11]. - The soda ash futures may have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,140 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,450 yuan/ton (- 200), 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170), 3,650 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3,690 yuan/ton (- 10) respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventory has dropped to a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil mill operations [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai regions are 2,128 yuan/ton, 2,333 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market is weakening. The USDA report has lowered the US corn production and ending inventory, and the weakening US dollar index supports the upward trend of US corn. In China, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak, which restricts the rise of corn futures prices [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,440 - 77,690 yuan, down 580 yuan, with a premium of 150 - 210 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact is intensifying, and the copper price is at a stage of resonance [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,400 (- 200) yuan/ton and 67,900 (- 200) yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate is declining. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace, and the low - cost lithium salt from salt lakes may enter the market. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand from steel mills is weak, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is low, and the profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts iron ore index is 99.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed, with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased, and the demand from domestic steel mills has increased but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation production cuts, but the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" still exists. OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the second - quarter demand may be affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic and Southeast Asian rubber supply is abundant, and the demand may be suppressed by the US tariff on automobiles [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC production enterprise operating rate has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the output has little fluctuation, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is average. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is still weak [12].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term outlook for the soybean oil 2509 contract is likely to be in consolidation [1]. - The short - term outlook for the soybean meal is likely to be in a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to large emotional fluctuations [2]. - The short - term corn futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3][4]. - After a sharp decline, copper prices need a rest, and tactical defense should be considered [5]. - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may be in a weak and volatile trend, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [6][7]. - The steel market is pessimistic, and steel prices are likely to oscillate at a low level [8]. - The coking coal and coke are likely to have a weak and volatile rebound at a low level, with limited upside space [9]. - The iron ore 2505 contract is likely to be in a short - term oscillation, and traders are advised to be cautious [10]. - For the WTI crude oil, attention should be paid to the support level of the INE crude oil main contract around 430 - 450 yuan/barrel after the sharp decline [11]. - The rubber market is likely to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating conditions of Shanghai rubber [13]. - The PVC futures price is likely to oscillate at a low level due to weak macro - sentiment [14][15]. - The soda ash futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy impacts the futures market. Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and export season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil are expected to be neutral, and the inventory is likely to be in consolidation [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 30), Tianjin 3,270 yuan/ton (- 20), Rizhao 3,200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Dongguan 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Sino - U.S. tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete. U.S. soybean exports are pessimistically expected. Domestic soybean meal supply may be tight in the short - term but will turn loose later. Terminal demand is average, and oil - mill inventories are neutral. Short - term sentiment is strong due to tariff events [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,088 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,293 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, and 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach a 12 - year high. The domestic supply pressure is reduced, and the demand from the pig - breeding industry is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors, and the price is mainly determined by domestic supply and demand [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73,820 - 75,400 yuan, down 4,540 yuan, with a premium of 100 - 200 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Global "irrational" tariffs cause overseas capital market fluctuations. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. The copper market is in a state of stage resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 71,900 yuan/ton (- 1,500), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 70,500 yuan/ton (- 1,200) [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The price has fallen, and attention should be paid to the 70,000 - yuan integer support [6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel - mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The short - term price is affected by macro - policy expectations [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 3.4756 million tons and 2.1713 million tons respectively [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 98.85, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 770 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 769 yuan [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar index provides some support [10]. Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs", the global capital market tumbled, and OPEC+ decided to increase production in May. The US PMI data contracted, and the demand is worried. The crude oil has entered a technical bear market [11]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of rubber, such as domestic whole - latex, Thai smoked sheets, and Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, are provided [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariffs" impact China's tire and automobile exports. The global rubber supply and demand are both loose, and the demand may be severely suppressed [13]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,800 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The production enterprise operating rate is increasing, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is decreasing. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to macro - tariff factors [14]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,464.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The production is increasing, the inventory is accumulating at the factory and decreasing in the society, the demand is average, and the market is affected by macro - events and related varieties [16].