Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The civil aviation passenger transport volume continued to grow steadily in June, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, reaching approximately 60.9 million passengers. Capacity saw a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rate in June was 7.8 hours per day, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1% but remained stable year-on-year [4]. - Major airlines reported growth in capacity and passenger turnover, with notable increases from Spring Airlines (+12%) and China Eastern Airlines (+10%) in passenger turnover compared to the previous year [4]. - The international market is recovering, with June international flight numbers reaching 55,000, recovering to 87.1% of the same period in 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in recovery across regions, with demand expected to accelerate as the summer travel season begins [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport Data - In June, the total passenger transport volume was approximately 60.9 million, a 3.8% increase year-on-year. Domestic market capacity increased by 0.3%, while international flights reached 55,000, recovering to 87.1% of 2019 levels [4][5]. - Airlines' passenger turnover (RPK) showed growth, with China Eastern Airlines at +10% and Spring Airlines at +12% year-on-year [4]. Airline Performance - The report provides a summary of key airline metrics for June, including ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK, with China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines showing significant growth [5]. - The passenger load factor for June was highest for Spring Airlines at 92.1%, while China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines also reported strong load factors [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in the aviation sector, highlighting the strong supply logic and demand elasticity, with specific recommendations for China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of listed companies in the first half of the year is strong, with over 57% of companies issuing positive profit forecasts, indicating a significant increase in expected net profits compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - As of July 15, 2023, 1,529 listed companies in the A-share market have released performance forecasts, with a total expected net profit of 2,321.92 billion yuan, up 67.31% from 1,387.77 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - A total of 880 companies are expected to report positive results, with 190 companies expected to turn losses into profits and 481 companies anticipating year-on-year profit growth [2]. - The non-bank financial, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and electronics sectors are the main contributors to the profit increase, each with net profit growth exceeding 10 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The steel and transportation industries are showing signs of recovery, with over 50% of companies in these sectors issuing positive forecasts [3]. - In the steel sector, 24 companies are expected to report a total net profit of -2.733 billion yuan, a significant improvement from -10.097 billion yuan in the previous year, with 79.17% of companies reporting positive forecasts [3]. - The transportation sector is expected to achieve a total net profit of 1.433 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of -3.452 billion yuan last year, with major contributions from the airline sector [3][4]. Group 3: Sector Opportunities - Institutions are optimistic about three key sectors: resource products, emerging industries driven by policy, and digital new media (TMT) [5]. - The resource products sector, particularly industrial and small metals, is benefiting from supply-demand dynamics, with significant price increases observed in various metals [5]. - Emerging industries such as innovative pharmaceuticals and deep-sea technology are expected to see high growth potential, supported by favorable policies [5][6]. - The electronic industry is experiencing a recovery, driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing, with significant demand for high-end semiconductor products [5][6].

Fixed Income - Credit spreads are expected to have further compression potential, with most industries showing a slight decrease in credit spreads except for the AA agricultural sector which saw a minor increase of 3 basis points [2][6][8] - The yield on 3-5 year perpetual bonds may gradually approach the interest rates of major banks' 3-5 year fixed deposits, indicating that credit spreads may still have room for compression [2][8] Transportation - The State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition in the express delivery industry, which may lead to high-quality development opportunities [10][11] - Major express companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong have seen a decline in single ticket revenue year-on-year, with decreases of -7.8%, -6.4%, -10.1%, and -6.2% respectively in Q1 2025 [11] Media - The upcoming mid-year report disclosures may present trading opportunities, with high-frequency data expected to maintain an upward trend if no turning points are observed [28] - The gaming sector is highlighted, with major titles from companies like Tencent and Giant Network performing well in the market, indicating potential for value reassessment [30][34] North Exchange - The cultural and IP economy is thriving, with the market size of the national trend economy reaching 2.05 trillion yuan in 2023 and expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2028 [23][24] - The Chinese trend toy market is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 35.11% from 2020 to 2024, surpassing the global average [24] Pharmaceutical - The pharmaceutical index rose by 1.82%, with innovative drug companies showing strong performance, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6][19] - Business development (BD) transactions are expected to become a regular source of income and profit for traditional pharmaceutical companies, enhancing their international revenue share [19] Overall Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,519.65, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.88% [3] - The North Exchange consumption service sector saw a median stock price change of +1.29%, with 25 companies experiencing increases [25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the logistics sector, specifically in companies like SF Holding and Haichen Co., due to their resilience and growth potential [2][3]. Core Views - The express delivery industry has seen a significant increase, with national express delivery volume surpassing 1 trillion pieces, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, which is expected to benefit companies like Haichen Co. [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing robust growth, with major airports like Baiyun and Shenzhen expected to see significant profit increases in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with a slight increase in the BDI index but a decline in container shipping rates [4][36]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 0.7% during the week of July 5-11, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.1% [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Express Delivery - The national express delivery volume has exceeded 1 trillion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [2]. - Jitu's package volume reached approximately 7.39 billion pieces in Q2 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index (CCPI) is at 4035 points, down 14.4% year-on-year [3]. - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals is 163 RMB/ton, down 13.9% year-on-year [3]. Aviation Airports - Baiyun Airport expects a net profit of 679 million to 830 million RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.06% to 89.51% [4]. - Shenzhen Airport anticipates a net profit of 287 million to 337 million RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.78% to 93.47% [4]. Shipping - The CCFI index for export container shipping is 1313.7 points, down 2.2% week-on-week and down 39.0% year-on-year [21]. - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is 1483.6 points, up 2.2% week-on-week but down 23.7% year-on-year [36]. Road and Rail Ports - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports was 25.988 million tons, down 5.28% week-on-week [5]. - The number of trucks passing through highways was 52.977 million, down 2.42% week-on-week but up 1.71% year-on-year [5].

Group 1 - Morning Light Biological expects a net profit of 202.0 million to 232.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 900.0 million to 960.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [1] - Youfa Group forecasts a net profit of 277.0 million to 307.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 151.69% to 178.93% [1] Group 2 - Torch Electronics projects a net profit of approximately 247.0 million to 280.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 50.36% to 70.45% [3] - Zhiwei Intelligent expects a net profit of 91.98 million to 112.43 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 62.85% to 99.06% [4] - Youhao Group anticipates a net profit of 12.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51% [5] Group 3 - Nami Technology expects a net profit of 61.0 million to 73.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 35% to 62% [7] - Xinda Co. forecasts a net profit of 130.0 million to 150.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 2443.43% to 2834.73% [8] Group 4 - Shaanxi Coal Industry reported a coal production of 14.36 million tons in June, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07% [9] - Huanxu Electronics announced a consolidated revenue of 4.587 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decline of 1.23% [10] Group 5 - Huadian International successfully issued 2.0 billion yuan in medium-term notes with a maturity of 3+N years and a coupon rate of 1.89% [20] - Zhongmin Energy reported a total power generation of 1.405 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.89% [20] Group 6 - Huaxia Biotech passed the FDA inspection with zero deficiencies, covering six major systems [21] - Ruikeda's application for convertible bond issuance has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [22] Group 7 - Dafu Technology plans to invest no more than 100 million yuan in Anhui Yunta [42] - Tongda Co. won a bid for a project valued at 180.3 million yuan from the Southern Power Grid [46]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. labor market, economic policies under the Trump administration, and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" on the economy. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Risks**: The decline in labor participation rates, particularly among youth and older populations, indicates potential risks in the labor market despite a decrease in unemployment rates. The unemployment rate may rise in the future, with projections suggesting it could reach 4.4%-4.5% by the end of the year, exceeding the natural unemployment rate level [1][6][10]. - **Non-Farm Payroll Adjustments**: Significant downward revisions are expected for the non-farm employment data for Q1 2025, with monthly adjustments potentially reaching 70,000 to 80,000 jobs. This aligns with a slowdown in private non-farm income due to reduced working hours and declining wages [3][4]. - **Impact of Government Policies**: The Trump administration's immigration restrictions have temporarily lowered unemployment rates but may hinder long-term demand and GDP growth. The tax cuts have stimulated short-term demand, but the overall impact on employment growth remains uncertain [9][11]. - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions**: There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of two cuts within the year, influenced by the current labor market conditions and fiscal policies [10][20]. - **Economic Implications of the "Great Beautiful Act"**: The act, signed on Independence Day, is expected to have short-term economic effects, but its long-term impact requires further analysis, particularly on various sectors such as services and manufacturing [7][8]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Debt and Deficit Projections**: The new fiscal legislation is projected to expand the deficit to approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, with a potential debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 130% by 2033, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11][13][15]. - **Sector Performance in A-Share Market**: The A-share market shows strong sentiment, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials, insurance, and consumer goods, which are expected to perform well due to supportive earnings and favorable valuations [21][22]. - **Macroeconomic Policy Directions in China**: Future macroeconomic policies in China will focus on stabilizing the real estate market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation, which are crucial for overall economic stability [23][24]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Long-term investment potential is identified in sectors such as energy, basic chemicals, and consumer electronics, with a focus on areas that exhibit strong earnings support and favorable valuations [24][25][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the strong growth in Southeast Asia's e-commerce logistics, particularly benefiting from TikTok Shop's significant GMV growth in Q2 2025, with increases of 93% in Thailand, 145% in Indonesia, 191% in Vietnam, 245% in the Philippines, 211% in Malaysia, and 30% in Singapore [4] - The report notes that the civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with over 21.01 million domestic flight tickets booked in the first month of the summer travel period, indicating a 5.2% increase in flight numbers compared to the previous year [6][7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand resilience in the express delivery sector, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - TikTok Shop's Q2 2025 GMV growth indicates a robust demand for Southeast Asian express delivery services, with Jitu's market share reaching 28.6% [4] - Shentong plans to deploy 2,000 unmanned vehicles in 2025 to enhance delivery capabilities [5] - JD Logistics has launched a self-developed VAN unmanned light truck, which can save approximately 60% in costs compared to traditional transport [5] Civil Aviation - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a peak in passenger flow, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and expected price hikes for popular routes [6] - The Civil Aviation Administration has established a leadership group to promote the development of general aviation and low-altitude economy [7] - The resumption of aircraft engine exports from the US to China signals a thaw in trade tensions [7] Shipping and Ports - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to regain market share [8] - China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry has been approved, indicating consolidation in the industry [9] - The Shanghai export container freight index has decreased by 5.3%, while oil tanker freight rates have also declined [10][11] Road and Rail - The report notes a slight decrease in toll revenue for Shenzhen Expressway in May, while the overall logistics operations remain stable [14] - National railway freight transport has shown a slight increase, indicating steady logistics performance [14] Overall Market Performance - The A-share transportation index decreased by 0.33% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.40% [20] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of various sub-sectors, highlighting the performance of express delivery, aviation, shipping, and logistics [22][25][49][55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, the stock index is more likely to strengthen and fluctuate under the drive of sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for guidance on the stock index direction. In the long - term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Overseas, the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. - In the future, the central bank may continue to reasonably supplement liquidity through over - renewal of MLF or in combination with reverse repurchase tools in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 2.14 with a 175.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.69 with a 34.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.63 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.50bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.49 with a 0.50bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.65 with a 0.10bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.29 with a 3.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2205 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1110 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature. The central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, with 1820 billion yuan maturing, achieving a net injection of 1180 billion yuan for the fourth consecutive month. Combining with reverse repurchase operations, the net injection of medium - term liquidity is 3180 billion yuan [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.37% to 3936.1, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.16% to 2712, the CSI 500 rose 0.88% to 5915.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.26% to 6356.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 14869 billion yuan, a decrease of 542 billion yuan from last Friday. Industries such as aerospace, gaming, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, medical services, electronic chemicals, jewelry, small metals, and communication equipment led the gains, while only the securities, banking, cement building materials, and airport sectors declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 0.4%, IH当月 rose 0.3%, IC当月 rose 0.6%, and IM当月 rose 0.8%. The trading volume and positions of all four futures contracts decreased, with IF trading volume down 26.4%, IH trading volume down 31.3%, IC trading volume down 13.7%, and IM trading volume down 11.4%. IF positions decreased by 3.8%, IH positions by 9.1%, IC positions by 3.4%, and IM positions by 5.7% [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF premium/discount rates for the current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.29%, 8.64%, 5.76%, and 4.34% respectively; IH are 14.20%, 6.73%, 3.82%, and 1.72% respectively; IC are 17.96%, 12.96%, 11.17%, and 9.52% respectively; IM are 23.35%, 16.93%, 14.72%, and 12.79% respectively [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.