Core Insights - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 59,502.9 billion yuan from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with a continuous growth rate maintained for three consecutive months since August 2023 [1] - The mining sector experienced a profit decline of 27.8%, although the decline rate narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year; manufacturing profits increased by 7.7%, and profits in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sectors grew by 9.5% [1] - In October, profits for industrial enterprises fell by 5.5% year-on-year due to a higher base from the previous year and rapid growth in financial costs [1] Revenue Growth - From January to October, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating sustained revenue growth that supports profit recovery [1] Sector Performance - The profit of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.8% year-on-year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises; high-tech manufacturing profits rose by 8.0%, surpassing the average profit growth of all industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points [1] - Traditional industries showed significant improvement, with profits in specific sectors such as graphite and carbon products, biochemical pesticides, and cultural information chemicals growing by 77.7%, 73.4%, and 19.1% respectively, all exceeding their industry averages [2] - In the chemical fiber, rubber, and plastic products sectors, profits in bio-based chemical fiber manufacturing and recycled rubber manufacturing increased by 61.2% and 15.4%, respectively, also above their industry averages [2] Economic Context - The chief statistician of the Industrial Department at the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the stable profit growth of industrial enterprises is driven by strong leadership from the central government and effective implementation of policies aimed at enhancing domestic circulation and promoting high-quality industrial economic development [2] - Moving forward, the focus will be on addressing complex international environments and domestic structural issues, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand, optimizing structure, and fostering new capabilities to enhance the foundation of the real economy [2]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative at -5.5%, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[3] - The revenue growth rate also turned negative at -3.3% in October, indicating a significant decline in both profit and revenue[5] - The two-year compound growth rate for profits fell to -7.8%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profit recovery despite base effects being excluded[3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Mining sector profits decreased by 12.0%, while manufacturing profits fell by 9.2% in October[6] - State-owned enterprises saw profit growth slow to 3.6% in October, down from previous high growth rates[6] - The computer electronics and automotive sectors were among the top contributors to profit growth, collectively adding 2.6 percentage points to overall profits[6] Group 3: Inventory and Turnover Issues - By the end of October, the nominal growth rate of industrial product inventories rose to 3.7%, indicating increased inventory pressure[6] - The inventory turnover days increased to 20.4 days, and accounts receivable turnover days rose to 69.8 days, highlighting growing turnover pressures[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for profit recovery in the first half of next year, supported by anticipated domestic demand policies and a possible global industrial cycle recovery due to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts[3] - The government is expected to implement framework policies to stabilize growth ahead of the upcoming Two Sessions[3]

11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。虽较1—9月回落1.3个百分点，但自8 月以来累计增速已连续三个月保持正向改善。其中，传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明显高于行业平均水平。 单月来看，10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁解读称，系受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快 等因素影响。前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙关注了需求端，他认为，10月份，社会消费品零售总额增速相比上月有所下降，内需不足是影响 工业企业增长的重要原因。 值得一提的是，近日，工业和信息化部会同五部门联合印发了《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》（以下简称《实施方案》），将有 利于企业生产的产品适销对路、优质优价，并激发消费潜力，促进经济循环畅通。 展望下一阶段，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，在利润基数平稳、价格因素改善的共同作用下，预计工业利润累计增速仍将保 持正向改善，但受前期基数逐步抬升等因素制约，回升斜率可能趋于温和。 累计增速连增三个月 自今 ...

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of November 25, 2025, is 1.27, an increase of 0.02 from November 18 [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" rose by 0.05 to 1.29, while the "30-city commodity housing sales index" fluctuated between 0.44 and 0.46 [1][3] Industrial Sector Performance - From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate from January to September [19] - The revenue and cost growth rates for the same period were both 0.6 percentage points lower than those from January to September, at 1.8% and 2.0% respectively [19] - State-owned industrial enterprises' profits remained stable compared to the previous year, while joint-stock enterprises saw a profit increase of 1.5% to 44,328.3 billion yuan, foreign and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan enterprises increased by 3.5% to 14,848.6 billion yuan, and private enterprises grew by 1.9% to 16,995.6 billion yuan [19] Profitability by Industry - Profitability varied across industries from January to October 2025, with the mining industry's profit margin rising from 16.68% to 16.76%, while the manufacturing sector's profit margin remained stable at 4.57% [2][19] - The profit margin for the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry decreased from 7.05% to 6.97% [2][19] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - As of November 25, 2025, the central bank's net fund injection through open market operations was 337.5 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase amount of 1,626.3 billion yuan and a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 17 basis points to 1.41%, while the 7-day repurchase rate remained unchanged at 1.54% [8][9] Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 10.84%, 23.06%, and 12.72% respectively, while second-hand housing transaction areas decreased by 5.84%, 2.64%, and 13.86% [30] - The average daily transaction area for all types of housing was below the level of the previous year [30] Consumer Behavior - The average daily box office revenue for movies was 64.23 million yuan, a decrease of 36.73 million yuan from the previous week [34] - The road logistics price index increased by 0.07% over the past month, up 0.48% year-on-year [34] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose by 0.22 points to 99.81, while the RMB to USD exchange rate increased by 187 basis points to 7.0938 [35][38] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX index decreased by 6.13 points to 18.56 [35][38]

由于钴的低产量，且自2025年2月起实施出口禁令，于本期间，本集团并无出售任何钴，而2024年同期 出售钴1,318吨。 本集团的Musonoi项目近期开始投产，成为于刚果(金)的第三座营运矿场。根据2023年报所载的于2023 年12月31日的资源与储量报表，Musonoi项目拥有606,000吨铜储量，174,000吨钴储量。其矿产规模已 超过现有Ruashi和Kinsenda两座在产矿场的总和。 此外，公司股份继续停牌。 金川国际(02362)发布公告，于截至2025年9月30日止9个月，本集团的采矿业务生产铜44,024吨(于电解 铜及铜精矿的铜含量)，较2024年同期的47,183吨同比减少约67%。该减少乃因刚果民主共和国(刚果 (金))国家电网供至Ruashi矿场的电力供应不稳定，故于2025年1月暂时停止溶剂萃取-电解冶鍊法系统 (SX-EW系统)。因此，电解铜产量下跌，而本集团则利用浮选工厂生产更多铜含量的铜精矿，进而维持 整体产量水平。为解决电力供应问题，本集团已积极加装额外柴油发电机，且SX-EW系统于2025年5月 中旬恢复运作。 由于暂时停止SX-EW系统，本集团于本期间生产钴71吨 ...

记者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨周上祺 11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。虽较1—9月回落1.3个百分点，但自8月以来累计增速已连续三 个月保持正向改善。其中， 传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明显高于行业平均 水平。 单月来看，10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于 卫宁解读称，系受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响。前海开源基金首 席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙关注了需求端，他认为，10月份，社会消费品零售总额增速相 比上月有所下降，内需不足是影响工业企业增长的重要原因。 10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。对于10月的数据，于卫宁指出，10月份，受 上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。温彬进一步指出，去年10月在费用成本下降带动下，利润当月同比降幅明显收窄，抬 高了今年10月的同比对比基数，对当月增速形成统计性压制。 值得一提的是，近日，工业和信息化部会同五部门联合印发了《关于增强消费品供需适配性 进一步促 ...

证券研究报告 宏观点评报告 / 2025.11.27 核心观点 ❖ 工业企业利润增速为何回落：10 月，工业经营量降价升、利润率回落，工 业利润增速的"恶化"，除了利润率的掣肘，与基数也有较大关系。去年"926 "政治局会议后，随着政策的加码，工业生产、消费、物价均有好转，也带动 工业利润边际修复，推高了今年四季度的基数，对同比读数形成拖累。 ❖ 分结构来看： 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 剔除基数，利润仍弱 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 联系人 连桐杉 liants@ctsec.com ❖ 上游采矿业仍然是"增利不增收"，与"反内卷"的推进有一定关系。多数采 矿行业营收仍然保持较大幅度的下滑，尤其是煤炭开采和非金属矿采选，10 月营收当月增速为-13.9%和-23.9%，分别较前值下滑 0.3 和 7.9 个百分点。 但采矿业利润率整体较高，近三个月均在所有行业的前列，例如有色采选和 油气开采 10 月利润率分别为 27.6%和 23.7%。在"反内卷"推进的过程中， 上游行业的减产修复了供需格局、提高了销售价格，但同时也影响销售规模。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 报道11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业 企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。虽较1—9月回落1.3个百分点，但自8月以来累计增速 已连续三个月保持正向改善。其中，传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明显高于行业平均水 平。 单月来看，10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁解读 称，系受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响。前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经 理杨德龙关注了需求端，他认为，10月份，社会消费品零售总额增速相比上月有所下降，内需不足是影 响工业企业增长的重要原因。 值得一提的是，近日，工业和信息化部会同五部门联合印发了《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进 消费的实施方案》（以下简称《实施方案》），将有利于企业生产的产品适销对路、优质优价，并激发 消费潜力，促进经济循环畅通。 "也就是说，老百姓想要什么、喜欢什么，政策就引导鼓励企业琢磨什么、生产什么，以便广大消费者 能买到称心如意的东西、享受到无微不至的服务，有利于企业生产的产品适销对路、优质优价。推动供 需总体适 ...

2025 年 11 月 27 日 总量研究 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 利润率改善驱动企业利润加速修复——2025 年9月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-10-27） 8 月工业企业利润缘何高增？——2025 年 8 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-09-27） "反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-08-27） 企业利润继续承压，亟待"反内卷"政策提 振——2025 年 6 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-07-27） 10 月盈利增速再次转负，需要担心吗？ ——2025 年 10 月工业企业盈利数据点评 工业企业利润增速缘何回落？——2025 年 5 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-06-27） 中游制造业支撑利润增长——2025年4月工 业企业盈利数据点评（2025-05-27） 工业企业盈利恢复向好——2025年3月工业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.13%. During the roll - over period, trading volume remained stable while open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are fair, inventory continues to decline, but demand weakens seasonally, and the actual situation is still weak, putting pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.27%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, and demand has weakened, with weak fundamentals, putting pressure on the coil price. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated strongly with a daily increase of 0.44%. Both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to rise, but ore demand is weakening, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the profit of state - holding enterprises was 1849.02 billion yuan, remaining flat year - on - year; that of joint - stock enterprises was 4432.83 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5%; that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1484.86 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%; and that of private enterprises was 1699.56 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9%. The mining industry's profit was 712.33 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 4505.03 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%; and the power, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 732.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5% [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition. It pointed out that the problem of disorderly price competition in some industries is still prominent, and some enterprises fail to implement the requirements for standardizing price competition, and there are still behaviors disrupting the market price order. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition and maintain a good market price order [8]. - In October, the procurement costs of coking coal and iron ore varieties increased month - on - month, with a relatively large increase in coking coal; the costs of pig iron, scrap steel and alloy varieties decreased month - on - month. From January to October, the procurement costs of various varieties decreased significantly year - on - year, and the decline of major varieties narrowed compared with January - September. The weighted average procurement cost converted to dry basis in October was 1321.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 54.12 yuan/ton or 4.27%; the cumulative average procurement cost from January to October was 1257.28 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 573.84 yuan/ton or 31.34% [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3210 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3289 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3290 yuan/ton and 3230 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3320 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the national average decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2980 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2080 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The coil - rebar price difference was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the rebar - scrap price difference was 1130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 799 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 808 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.73 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/ton; from Brazil was 24.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/ton. The SGX swap price (current month) was 104.90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.10 US dollars/ton; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.75 US dollars/ton [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3093 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The trading volume was 753,252 lots, an increase of 83 lots; the open interest was 1,069,617 lots, a decrease of 131,083 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume was 379,233 lots, an increase of 76,467 lots; the open interest was 876,319 lots, a decrease of 58,870 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 199,651 lots, a decrease of 2,318 lots; the open interest was 414,346 lots, a decrease of 5,496 lots [12]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][29] 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 1.88 tons month - on - month, with a slight contraction in supply. However, the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and high - frequency daily trading has stabilized, both at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry is weak, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory reduction is limited. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.00 tons month - on - month, with supply rising at a high level and high inventory pressure. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 4.20 tons month - on - month, but it is still at a relatively high level. The contradictions in the downstream cold - rolling industry remain unresolved, and external demand improvement is limited, so demand resilience is likely to weaken. It is expected to continue the bottom - seeking through fluctuations, and attention should be paid to steel - mill production [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and terminal ore consumption has declined. The average daily pig iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month last week. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and combined with production - restriction disturbances, iron ore demand continues to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased significantly, and the shipment of overseas miners has decreased, but both are at high levels this year. External ore supply is positive, and domestic ore production is stable, with ore supply remaining at a high level. Short - term positive factors support the ore price to rise, but demand is weakening, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].