Economic Performance Overview - From January to July, Yunnan Province's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.1% year-on-year [1] - The mining industry saw an added value growth of 10.4%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 5.5%, both accelerating compared to the first half of the year [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry experienced a 2.3% increase in added value [1] Sector Analysis - Tobacco industry added value grew by 1.8%, energy industry by 3.8%, and non-tobacco and non-energy industries by 8.6% [1] - Key industrial products showed significant growth: single crystal silicon increased by 21.6% and electrolytic aluminum by 12.7% [1] - Under the policy of replacing old consumer goods, electric bicycles and solar water heaters saw increases of 39.0% and 28.7% respectively, while smartphones surged by 17.9 times year-on-year [1] Power Generation and Consumption - The total industrial power generation in Yunnan reached 248.189 billion kWh, marking a 3.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Clean energy sources (hydropower, wind power, and solar photovoltaic) accounted for 85.4% of the total power generation, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [1] Retail and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Yunnan amounted to 733.511 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [2] - Fixed asset investment in the province increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] - The service industry above designated size achieved operating income of 182.686 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% year-on-year [2] Economic Outlook - Yunnan's economy is maintaining a stable and positive development trend, supported by proactive macro policies [2] - However, challenges such as weak expectations and insufficient effective demand remain, indicating the need for further consolidation of the economic recovery [2] - Future efforts will focus on implementing policies to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, while effectively releasing domestic demand potential [2]

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial production growth rate was 5.7%, down from 6.8% in June, indicating a slowdown in production[12][14]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to July was 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, a decrease from 2.8% previously[12][14]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, which is a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[12][14][23]. Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.4 percentage points, while manufacturing investment growth fell by 1.3 percentage points in July[20][28]. - Real estate development investment from January to July was 53,580 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points[21][28]. Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth for categories excluding automobiles was 4.3%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns, particularly a decline in automotive sales[12][23][27]. - The recovery in dining consumption suggests that the overall decline in consumption is primarily driven by a drop in retail sales of goods[27][29]. Policy Outlook - The government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies and maintain moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery in the second half of the year[5][32]. - Continued focus on infrastructure and real estate investment is anticipated to stabilize fixed asset investment and support economic growth[5][32]. Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[6][33].

Report Title - 7-month economic progress with real estate investment under pressure - A panorama of China's economic data in July 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, the economy grew steadily. In July, industrial growth continued, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline [2]. - Domestic demand still needs improvement, and external uncertainties are increasing. In July, the economy advanced steadily. The "anti-involution" optimized the supply chain and accelerated industrial upgrading. Service consumption supported the overall consumer market. Externally, trade protectionism and geopolitical risks intertwined, and continuous vigilance was needed for the impact of commodity supply chain disruptions and new US tariff policies on the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory Macro Events - On August 15, National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with production and demand continuing [6]. Growth: Steady Growth - In July, industrial growth continued. The added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. By category, the mining industry increased by 5.0% year-on-year, manufacturing by 6.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 3.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry by 9.3%, 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large-scale industries respectively [10]. Inflation: Month-on-Month Improvement - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The purchase price decreased by 4.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. From January to July, the PPI decreased by 2.9% cumulatively. The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024 [19][39]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to July 2025, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year (2.8% previously), and the month-on-month decline continued ( -0.63% in July). The investment growth rate of the secondary industry slowed down to 8.9% (manufacturing investment +6.2%), and the investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.3% (more affected by real estate) [53]. Production: Downstream Improvement - In the first half of 2025, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year. The manufacturing industry increased by 7.0%. The downstream demand improved significantly, but the weakness of upstream raw material industries and export pressure were constraints [59]. Consumption: Structural Differentiation - In July 2025, the growth rate of the consumer market slowed down. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year (5.0% previously). The single - month retail sales in July increased by only 3.7% year-on-year, reaching a new low for the year. Service consumption showed resilience, while the growth of online channels slowed down [69]. Real Estate: Investment Under Pressure - From January to July, the national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8% compared to January - June. The sales side remained weak, but policy - driven structural optimization accelerated inventory reduction [78].

Retail Performance - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%[5] - The average monthly growth rate of retail sales rose from 0% in January-May to 0.7% in June-July, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[2] - Automotive sales rebounded, with a month-on-month growth rate increasing from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July after a cumulative decline of 4.6% in the first five months of 2023[5] Industrial Output - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July, primarily due to declines in mining and utilities, which dropped to -0.4% and -0.2% respectively[5] - Manufacturing output remained flat at 0% month-on-month, with significant increases in medical equipment (2.6%) and semiconductors (2.9%), while apparel and automotive sectors saw declines[5] Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to defend the independence of the central bank and reduce market expectations for significant interest rate cuts[2] - With inflation expected to rebound and unemployment rates remaining low, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[2]

Report Overview - The report is an event review of the economic data for July 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, 2025, covering production, consumption, investment, market, and bond market views [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6]. Summary by Section Production - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.38%. The growth rate slowed down slightly due to seasonal factors [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry continued to play a key role in industrial production. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size was 8.4%, significantly supporting the growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size [2]. - The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry and the digital product manufacturing industry above the designated size were 9.3% and 8.4% respectively, both higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size. The integrated circuit and electronic special material manufacturing industries grew by 26.9% and 21.7% respectively [2]. Consumption - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month decline was 0.14%. The year - on - year decline in total retail sales was mainly due to the suspension of national subsidies in some regions [3]. - In July, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size were 1.1% and - 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from June. With the cooling of subsidies on food delivery platforms, catering revenue is expected to bottom out and rebound [3]. Investment - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June; after excluding real estate development investment, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 5.3%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that from January to June [4]. - The investment in water conservancy management and information transmission industries from January to July increased by 12.6% and 8.3% respectively. The investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% year - on - year, accounting for 16.2% of the total investment and driving the overall investment growth by 2.2 percentage points [4]. - From January to July, the year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was 12%, 0.8 percentage points wider than that from January to June. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% and 6.5% respectively year - on - year, with the decline rates 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points wider than those from January to June, both at the lowest growth rates of the year. The real estate investment is searching for the bottom. The national real estate climate index further declined to 93.34, still in a low - level climate range [4]. Market - After the economic data were released at 10:00, the yields fluctuated downward under the push of the fundamentals and the support of funds. However, after the mid - day break, affected by the strong performance of the stock market, the yields fluctuated upward again [5]. Bond Market Viewpoints - Under the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendingly. For the allocation between stocks and bonds, the report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6].

Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in the previous month and below the expected 5.8%[4] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decline from 4.8% in June and below the forecast of 4.9%[4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.8%[4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, up from 5.0% in June[4] Industrial and Investment Trends - The manufacturing sector's investment saw a significant decline, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of -0.3% in July, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous value[23] - Infrastructure investment also turned negative, with a monthly year-on-year decline of -5.1% in July, significantly lower than the previous month's performance[27] - The real estate development investment fell sharply, with a monthly year-on-year decrease exceeding four percentage points compared to the previous month[31] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The service retail sector showed resilience, with strong growth in categories like home appliances and cultural products, despite overall retail sales weakening[18] - The consumer confidence and spending power remain low, necessitating further policy measures to stimulate consumption[14] - Seasonal factors contributed to a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with the influx of new graduates into the job market exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch[33]

Core Insights - Kyrgyzstan's GDP for January to July is estimated at 865.2 billion som (approximately 9.9 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [1] Economic Structure - The service sector constitutes 51.1% of the economy, while goods production accounts for 32.8%, and product taxes make up 16.1% [1] Sector Performance - Industrial output increased by 11.3%, with mining growing by 14.6% and manufacturing by 11% [1] - The construction sector showed significant growth with a 37.8% increase in output [1] - Wholesale and retail trade grew by 13.2%, while the hotel and restaurant sector saw a 27.8% increase [1] - Agricultural, forestry, and fishing sectors experienced a modest growth of 2.3% [1] - Freight volume increased by 11.6%, and communication services grew by 6.3% compared to the same period last year [1] Inflation and Trade - Consumer prices and tax rates rose by 4.7% from December of the previous year [1] - External trade for January to June totaled 6.9987 billion USD, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, with exports down by 26.3% to 1.0488 billion USD and imports down by 9.4% to 5.9501 billion USD [1]

Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Consumption Data - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and the lowest monthly growth rate this year[3] - Retail sales of automobiles fell by 1.5% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.1 percentage points compared to June, closely linked to the recent downturn in the real estate market[3] - Retail sales of communication equipment rose by 14.9%, while home appliances and furniture grew by 28.7% and 20.6%, respectively, despite declines from June[3] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment saw a sharp decline of 5.3% year-on-year in July, the largest drop since April 2020[4] - Real estate development investment fell by 17.0% year-on-year, the lowest since December 2022, indicating a renewed acceleration in market adjustments[4] - The area of residential sales decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, remaining at a low level despite a slight improvement[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate fell to 5.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points, with the mining and manufacturing sectors also experiencing declines[6] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a significant drop of 2.9 percentage points to 8.5%, the lowest since November 2024, reflecting the combined effects of supply-side policies and demand cooling[6] Policy Implications - The simultaneous cooling of retail, investment, and real estate markets in July may signal the need for policy measures in the second half of the year[6] - The central government may need to implement larger subsidies for durable goods consumption and consider a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points to stabilize the real estate market[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's economy in July, highlighting a slowdown in key economic indicators due to external and domestic challenges, including extreme weather and trade tensions. The focus is on maintaining policy stability and promoting domestic demand to support economic growth [3][4][5]. Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from June. The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, also down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3][4]. Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector showed a growth of 6.2% in July, while the mining industry grew by 5.0% and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector increased by 3.3% [4]. - The article notes that the "two new" initiatives are positively impacting industrial production, with significant growth in shipbuilding and electric motor manufacturing [4][5]. Consumer Market - The consumer market showed a mixed performance, with retail sales growth slowing down in July but service sector sales remaining stable. The overall retail sales growth for services was 5.2% from January to July [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the impact of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, which has led to substantial growth in categories like electric bicycles and 5G smartphones [10][11]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, with a 1.6% year-on-year increase. Excluding real estate, investment grew by 5.3% [14]. - Infrastructure investment rose by 3.2%, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%. However, real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [14][15]. - The article highlights that despite a nominal slowdown in investment growth, the actual physical workload remains robust, driven by innovation and equipment upgrades [14][16]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that while there are pressures on investment growth, the potential for future investment remains significant, particularly in new productive forces and urban-rural coordination [16]. - The need for continued policy support to enhance domestic demand and innovation is emphasized to ensure sustainable economic development [5][7].