Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core Viewpoint - With the arrival of imported ores and the continuous opening of the import window, smelters' raw material inventory has slightly increased, leading to a decline in the enthusiasm for purchasing domestic ores. The supply pressure is expected to continue to decrease quarter-on-quarter. Although consumption has entered the traditional off - season, zinc consumption remains relatively strong, and social inventory accumulates slowly. Zinc shows relative resistance to decline under capital disturbances, with low absolute valuation and long - term macro factors remaining bullish. [4] Key Information by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$43.99 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan per ton, with a change of 110 yuan from the previous trading day and a premium of 75 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,090 yuan per ton, with a change of 130 yuan and a premium of 25 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,070 yuan per ton, with a change of 110 yuan and a premium of 5 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On January 12, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,070 yuan per ton and closed at 24,125 yuan per ton, a change of 245 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,562 lots, and the position was 73,033 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,140 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,895 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 118,300 tons, a change of - 200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,800 tons, a change of - 650 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - With the arrival of imported ores and the continuous opening of the import window, smelters' raw material inventory has slightly increased. The domestic ore TC remains stable, while the imported ore TC continues to decline. The smelter's raw material available days are not high, and the TC is difficult to rise in the short term. The comprehensive smelting profit is difficult to repair, and the output in the first quarter may still fall short of expectations, reducing supply pressure. Consumption has entered the traditional off - season, but zinc consumption remains relatively strong, social inventory accumulates slowly, and the spot premium is maintained. [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is neutral [6] Core View - Consumption shows signs of turning to the off - season but still has rigidity. Social inventory accumulation is slow, and the spot market supply remains tight with firm spot premiums. After the absolute price drops, downstream still maintains rigid - demand procurement. Domestic concentrate TC has stopped falling, while imported concentrate is still slightly declining. Although smelters' raw material inventory has increased after winter storage, the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting loss of domestic smelters has widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month - on - month. There is a possibility that the output in January will fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and there is optimism about future consumption. The interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The current market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited [5] Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is - $45.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 24,170 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,090 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,100 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,190 yuan/ton, closed at 23,975 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 151,811 lots, and the position was 83,786 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,230 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 23,845 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 118,500 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 108,000 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is still expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be watched [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$29.14 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,260 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 90 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,220 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan, with a premium of - 5 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,170 yuan per ton, up 180 yuan, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,290 yuan per ton and closed at 23,230 yuan per ton, down 215 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 171,518 lots, and the open interest was 95,197 lots. The highest price was 23,320 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,045 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 124,500 tons, up 2,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,875 tons, up 7,900 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are rising, and spot liquidity has improved. Procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase. The pressure on the supply side is increasing, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - The high - frequency consumption performance is slightly weak. The downstream in the spot market purchases as needed, social inventory stops falling, and the spot premium continues to strengthen. The import window for zinc ore is open, the domestic ore TC stops falling, and the smelters' enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. The comprehensive smelting loss of smelters has expanded, with more overhauls in December, reducing supply pressure. The consumption side remains strong, and the fundamentals are still bullish. Zinc is currently undervalued, and there is optimism about future consumption with unchanged interest - rate cut expectations and unreflected re - inflation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$30.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,070 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 22, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,075 yuan/ton, closed at 23,115 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,424 lots, and the open interest was 90,612 lots. The highest price was 23,150 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,980 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 124,500 tons, up 0.23 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 99,250 tons, down 650 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period of the past five years. The spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the inventory accumulation in China is still expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of overseas inventories. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is $90.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,470 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 70 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,390 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -10 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 23,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On December 15, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 23,480 yuan/ton, closed at 23,430 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 168,578 lots, and the position was 83,302 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,205 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of December 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 125,700 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 64,475 tons, an increase of 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As zinc prices decline, the spot market discount continues to repair slightly. The spread between near - month contracts has become flat. The TC of the mining end continues to decline, and the losses of smelters expand. The raw material inventory of smelters continues to fall, and the procurement enthusiasm remains, so TC is expected to continue to decline. The smelting enthusiasm has significantly declined, and the smelting output has decreased significantly month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. The consumption end maintains strong resilience, the social inventory center continues to decline, the absolute value of LME inventory remains low, the spot premium is at a relatively high level, and the export window remains open. The fundamental data has fully changed from bearish to bullish, the current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $162.99 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 23,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 65 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,990 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 15 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,960 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On December 10, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,120 yuan/ton, closed at 23,075 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 118,200 lots, and the position was 93,179 lots. The highest intraday price reached 23,210 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,970 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 59,800 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive arbitrage [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side continues to emerge. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $175.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of -10 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton, closed at 22,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 94,668 lots, and the open interest was 91,450 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,385 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 156,600 tons, down 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are rising and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face great pressure and may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be considered [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing supply pressure. Overseas warehouse receipts remain low with high premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, and micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro background remains positive [4] Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $128.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,686 lots, and the position was 102,938 lots. The highest price was 22,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,550 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 157,900 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 37,800 tons, up 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis Summary - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses. Overseas warehouse receipts are still low, and domestic inventories are falling [4] Strategy Summary - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - In November, domestic zinc concentrate treatment charges (TC) dropped significantly, and overseas TC also decreased synchronously. With strong demand from smelters for zinc concentrate, TC is expected to decline further. [5] - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profits are severely compressed, leading to losses in high - cost areas, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure more than expected. [5] - Overseas zinc inventories are still low despite a slight increase in warehouse receipts, with high spot premiums. Domestic inventories are falling, and the export window is fully open, with the possibility of a significant seasonal decline in social inventories. [5] - Micro - data has almost fully shifted from bearish to bullish, while the macro - economic background remains positive. [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $176.55 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan per ton, with a change of 90 yuan from the previous trading day and a premium of - 45 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan, with a premium of - 75 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,620 yuan per ton, up 90 yuan, with a premium of - 85 yuan per ton. [2] - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,770 yuan per ton, closed at 22,675 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan. The trading volume was 81,702 lots, and the open interest was 107,475 lots. The highest price was 22,810 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,630 yuan per ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 11, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 159,600 tons, a change of 9,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, a change of 400 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc concentrate TC are both declining, and smelting profits are compressed, which will reduce supply - side pressure. [5] - Overseas inventories are low with high spot premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, with the export window open. [5] Strategy - Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. With strong demand from smelters for ore procurement, TC is expected to decline further. - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profit has been severely compressed, suppressing smelting enthusiasm and potentially reducing supply - side pressure more than expected. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.26/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices are 22,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,875 lots, and the position was 110,752 lots. The highest price was 22,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,530 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly in November. With strong procurement demand from smelters, TC is expected to decline further. - The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]