1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market in Guangdong Ruyifang recovered slowly after the Spring Festival, with prices remaining stable. Merchants made purchases according to demand, and the market transactions were average. The spot price was at a low level in recent years, and the inventory was at a relatively high point in recent years. As of March 5, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points in the week was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The inventory decreased slightly this week, the market was slowly recovering after the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment was average, and the inventory removal speed was slow. The downstream trade replenishment was average, and the processing plants had not started production intensively. With the warming weather, the red date purchase and sales entered the off - season [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of red dates was 8,985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the main contract position was 127,837 lots, a decrease of 5,757 lots; the net purchase volume of the top 20 futures positions was 2,963 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,031, a decrease of 20,050; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 83 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The unified price of red dates in Kashi was 6.5 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 3.95 yuan/jin; the unified price of red dates in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin; the unified price of red dates in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan was 9.5 yuan/kg; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei was 9.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong was 10 yuan/kg; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong was 8.8 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates was 318.7 million tons, and the planting area was 606,900 hectares, a decrease of 4.1% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 11,817 tons this week, a decrease of 35 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates was 5,071,577 kg, an increase of 1,534,011 kg; the cumulative export volume of red dates was 34,362,765 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59%; the average daily arrival volume of red dates in Ruyifang Market was 3.13 vehicles, a decrease of 1.87 vehicles; the monthly average wholesale price of red dates was 11.23 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.47 yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The price in Hebei Cuierzhuang Market was stable. Recently, the market arrivals increased. Most of the arrivals were sub - standard and some old - stock finished products. The quality of the arrived finished products was average, and the price was lower than the market mainstream price. The downstream made purchases according to demand [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.75% to 64.68 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.2% to 15,285 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 15,519 lots to 749,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,425 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical conflicts continue, oil prices fluctuate greatly, and the G7 alliance plans to release strategic oil reserves. The U.S. dollar index is strong, and the price of U.S. cotton futures has moved slightly higher. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rose and then fell. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is affected by oil prices to some extent. The increase in oil prices drives up the cost of polyester chemical fiber raw materials, and cotton, as a substitute raw material for textile production, is also supported. The spreads between cotton and its substitutes have narrowed, but are still at a high level in the past year. In the medium to long term, domestic cotton is about to be planted, and the supply - demand pattern of domestic cotton in the 2026/27 season is expected to narrow. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and may have some upside potential in the long term [1]. - For sugar, the price of raw sugar futures rose significantly last night, with the May contract closing at 14.6 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the futures price rose sharply in the morning and then fell in the afternoon, and hovered around 5,440 yuan per ton last night. The upward drive in the context of a bumper harvest mainly comes from concerns about inflation and expectations of policies. Once the regional conflict eases, the market will return to fundamental - driven. Hedging positions can seize the opportunity to enter the market, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 55, down 5; the main contract basis is 1,347, down 36. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,465 yuan per ton, down 49; the national spot price is 16,632 yuan per ton, down 46 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 7, up 2; the main contract basis is 84, up 55. The spot price in Nanning is 5,520 yuan per ton, up 130; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,520 yuan per ton, up 120 [2]. 2. Market Information - On March 9, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,647, an increase of 204 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,099 [3]. - On March 9, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 16,465 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,661 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,656 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,718 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On March 9, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.7, up 1.3 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 20, down 0.7 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 54.1, up 1.4 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 28.3, down 2.3 from the previous day [3]. - On March 9, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,520 yuan per ton, up 130 yuan from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,520 yuan per ton, up 120 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - On March 9, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,948, a decrease of 38 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,264 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of sugar [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has also won many awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He has won relevant awards [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the domestic soybean complex has seen increased volatility. The prices of soybean and soybean meal futures have reached new highs, and spot prices have also risen. The report expects the soybean No. 1 to trend strongly, and soybean meal to have a strong rebound, but suggests cautious chasing of rising prices and mainly adopting a strategy of low buying and high selling within a range [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No. 1 main 2605 contract reached a high of 4941 and then declined, approaching the 5000-point mark and hitting a nearly 2-year high. The spot price in Fujin rose from 4560 yuan/ton to around 4700 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, with the futures premium turning to discount and then back to premium [3]. - The soybean meal main 2605 contract hit a daily limit and then declined, reaching a high of 3066 and setting a phased high. The spot price in Zhangjiagang rose from 3010 yuan/ton to around 3220 yuan/ton. The basis first weakened and then strengthened, and the futures discount first decreased and then increased [3]. Supply Side - Domestic soybean sales have slowed down, and there is currently no state reserve soybean auction. As of March 6, the remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 35% (a 4% month-on-month decrease), in Anhui to 45% (a 5% decrease), in Henan to 44% (a 5% decrease), and in Shandong to 45% (a 5% decrease). The remaining grain ratio nationwide is higher than the same period last year [3]. - The arrival of soybeans at oil mills has increased, and port soybean inventories have slightly decreased. As of March 6, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.781 million tons, a month-on-month increase, and port soybean inventories were 5.794 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. There is a possibility of continued purchases of US soybeans during the potential visit at the end of March and beginning of April, but currently, due to the high cost of US soybeans and the upcoming South American soybean harvest, the market may prefer to buy South American soybeans [4]. - US soybeans reached a significant high and then declined. Boosted by the US-Iran conflict, the rise in crude oil prices stimulated the demand for biofuels, and the sharp rise in US soybean oil prices supported US soybeans. Additionally, the increase in fertilizer prices raised planting costs. However, as the conflict sentiment weakened, US soybeans declined. The expected increase in the planting area of new US soybean crops should be noted, with the previous US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicting 85 million acres (a 4.7% year-on-year increase) [4]. Demand Side - The operating rate of oil mills has rapidly recovered, and soybean meal inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As of March 6, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.47%, a significant month-on-month increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5.727 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. The soybean meal output was 1.448 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 761,000 tons, a month-on-month increase; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.306 million tons, a significant month-on-month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.14 days, a month-on-month decrease [4][5]. - Feed demand is relatively strong, but long-term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the livestock sector, pig prices have continued to decline, leading to overall losses in pig farming, with severe losses in some areas. As of March 6, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -58.9 yuan per head, turning from profit to loss; the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -237.9 yuan per head, a severe loss. The industry has held another meeting to emphasize capacity regulation. The inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms slightly decreased in February, the number of sows culled increased slightly month-on-month, the output of piglets increased month-on-month, but sales decreased, and the inventory of commercial pigs stopped decreasing and started to increase again. In the poultry sector, egg prices have declined, increasing losses in poultry farming. The sales volume of chicken chicks still increased in February, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in production may have increased in February. Currently, the high inventory of livestock and poultry still supports feed demand, but capacity may continue to be reduced due to losses, which is unfavorable for the long-term growth of feed demand [5]. Market Outlook - At high prices, the sales of domestic soybeans have slowed down, and the remaining grain has continued to decrease. The market price remains relatively strong, and the soybean No. 1 is expected to trend strongly [5]. - The arrival of domestic soybeans has increased; there is currently no auction; the operating rate of oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase. The rebound of soybean meal is relatively strong. Due to the dominance of the US-Iran conflict sentiment, the volatility has increased. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing rising prices and mainly adopt a strategy of low buying and high selling within a range [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as the Iran situation, and different commodities have different trends and risks [6][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 1.11%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.21%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04%. The central bank conducted 48.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 86.5 billion yuan on the day. In February, CPI rose 1% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and decreased 0.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that there will still be some pressure, so caution is advised [6][7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 1.09%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.97%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.75%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.28% [8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and there are policy expectations. However, the Iran situation has high uncertainty, and it is expected that market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to close long positions and wait for opportunities [10][11]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,140 with a decline of 0.07%, and the silver main contract closed at 21,547 with an increase of 0.07% [12]. - **Outlook**: The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [12][13]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3,120 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,240 - 3,260 yuan/ton [14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is determined by industry supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. It is expected that the price will lack positive drivers but has low valuation. Technically, the futures are expected to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15][16]. 3.5 Iron Ore - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The port spot price of PB powder was 770 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 660 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. During the key meetings, steel mills' production restrictions have suppressed the demand for iron ore. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the port inventory is at a high level. Technically, the futures are expected to continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [17][18]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly [19]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect market sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand is under pressure due to steel mills' production restrictions. Technically, the futures are still in a volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [20][21]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose 0.43% to 6,132 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract rose 0.51% to 5,868 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese silicon spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon iron price rose 270 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [22]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of overall surplus. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider exiting long positions on rallies [22]. 3.8 Crude Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil hit the daily limit due to market expectations of war escalation [23]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions in CFTC shows that US funds are bullish on the crude oil market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts by Middle East oil companies, which supports oil prices. However, Trump's statement that the war with Iran is basically over has eased the tension. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. 3.9 Polyolefins - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market reported a rapid price increase, and the Yuyao LLDPE market rose 1,950 - 2,450 yuan/ton [27]. - **Outlook**: The downstream factories of polyolefins are resuming production, and the demand for replenishment has increased, which supports the price increase. The geopolitical conflict has strengthened the cost support. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [28][29]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 8.97%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted to 15,000 - 15,200 yuan/ton [30]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up the price of crude oil, which has increased the cost of synthetic rubber. Some device overhauls are expected in March. Although the inventory is accumulating, the price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [30][31]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.44%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 1.38%. The Shanghai spot price of whole latex was adjusted to around 16,900 yuan/ton [32]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up the price of synthetic rubber, increasing the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in a low - production season, and the demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [32][33]. 3.12 PVC - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 5.99% and hit the daily limit, and the East China spot price was raised by 400 yuan/ton [34]. - **Outlook**: The overseas geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about energy and raw material supply, which is in a game with the seasonal off - season of domestic spring demand. The inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [34][36]. 3.13 Urea - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 4.33%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was 1,920 yuan/ton (+30) [37]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical conflict and international supply - demand mismatch have led to a global production gap in urea. China has strict export quota control. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, export and production capacity expansion need to be concerned. In the long term, the pattern is expected to be loose [37][38]. 3.14 PX - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose 7.02% [39]. - **Outlook**: The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed. The PX load is slightly increased, and the downstream polyester and terminal industries are gradually resuming work. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. Due to the easing of the US - Iran conflict, the oil price may decline, and the PX price may follow and fluctuate. It is recommended to operate cautiously [39][40]. 3.15 PTA - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 7.01%, and the processing fee rose to around 300 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The PTA supply is adjusted, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost support is slightly weakened due to the easing of the geopolitical situation. The price may follow the PX and oil prices and decline slightly. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 7.99% [42]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical situation may ease, the cost support may weaken, and the high inventory may suppress the short - term price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring overhaul rhythm [42][43]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose 7.02% [44]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically stable, and the loom load is slightly increasing. The price is mainly driven by the cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [44]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose 7.02%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 520 yuan/ton [45]. - **Outlook**: The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export is increasing, and the spot is still tight in the short term. The price is mainly driven by the cost. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of overhauled devices and cost changes [45]. 3.19 Soda Ash - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,276 yuan/ton during the day session with a 3.66% increase and 1,265 yuan/ton during the night session with a 2.17% decrease [46]. - **Outlook**: The soda ash production is stable, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by the energy price. The market sentiment is volatile, and it is necessary to control risks [47][48]. 3.20 Glass - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,104 yuan/ton during the day session with a 3.18% increase and 1,095 yuan/ton during the night session with a 2.75% decrease [49]. - **Outlook**: The glass production capacity is in the process of active de - stocking, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The price is under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East situation and fundamental indicators [50][51]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 2,442 yuan/ton during the day session with a 5.30% increase and 2,355 yuan/ton during the night session with a 4.31% decrease [52]. - **Outlook**: The caustic soda supply is at a high level, and the inventory is increasing. The downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. The price is affected by the oil price. The market has a strong export expectation but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to control positions [52][53]. 3.22 Pulp - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,300 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase [54]. - **Outlook**: The pulp inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend, the supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of coniferous pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is supported by cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and bulk commodities, downstream paper mill procurement, and capital movements [54][55]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 2.94% to 161,060 yuan/ton [56]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the demand is improving. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [56]. 3.24 Copper - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton with a 1.28% increase [57]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper supply is limited. The demand is seasonally warming, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The copper price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [57][58]. 3.25 Aluminum - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,850 yuan/ton with a 1.43% decrease, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,859 yuan/ton with a 2.72% decrease [59]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market has a surplus supply, and the cost is supported by the geopolitical conflict. The domestic aluminum inventory is under pressure, and the demand has not fully recovered. The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong - side operation [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,425 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase [61]. - **Outlook**: The zinc supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is weak. The inventory is accumulating. The zinc price may be under pressure and oscillate [61][62][63]. 3.27 Lead - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,720 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [64]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand mismatch is conducive to the de - stocking of primary lead, but the downstream rigid demand is limited. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [64][65]. 3.28 Tin - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 3.51% to 397,630 yuan/ton [66]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The supply of tin is gradually easing, and the demand has short - term support. The inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation [66]. 3.29 Nickel - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose 1.37% to 137,930 yuan/ton [67]. - **Outlook**: The US - Iran conflict has increased the price volatility of resource products. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the production cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67][68]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 3.53% to 2,995 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 3.16% to 8,672 yuan/ton.

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2026/3/10 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8672 | 9720 | 9954 | 2995 | 2291 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 260 | 502 | 288 | 80 | 0 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 3.09% | 5.45% | -3.15% | 2.74% | 0.00% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

农产品早报 2026-03-10 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 【策略观点】 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 白糖 【行情资讯】 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 （1）据印度全国合作糖厂联合会（NFCSF）发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2 月 28 日，印度累计产糖 2463 万吨，同比增加 262 万吨。（2）3 月原糖合约到期交割量为 1.59 万手，折合 80.8 万吨。其中路易 达孚是最大的卖方，交割超过 1.4 万手；苏克敦是唯一的买方，交割 1.59 万手（3）据印度糖业协会（ISMA） 发布第三次产量预测 2025/26 榨季印度食糖净产量（不含乙醇）为 2930 万吨，较第二次预测下调 165 万 吨，同比增产 317 万吨。（4）分析机构（Hedgepoint Global Markets）预估巴西中南部地区 2026/27 榨季 的糖产量为 4050 万吨，较前一年度持平。其中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the regular rotation of the economic cycle and the influence of the medium - term inventory cycle, bulk commodities experience a rotational upward trend in the order of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy and chemicals - agricultural products" [4] - After the US - Israel raid on Iran on February 28, the start of subsequent sectors may be advanced. The current strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is fully expected by the market, while oil prices and sectors related to China's domestic economic cycle still have room for rotation and upward expectations [5] - In 2026, the chemical sector is worth looking forward to. With the implementation of China's "anti - involution" policy, the exit of production capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the transmission of crude oil costs, chemical products will see a market of cost transmission and supply optimization [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 What is the commodity sector cycle rotation? - Due to the regular rotation of the economic cycle and the influence of the medium - term inventory cycle, bulk commodities experience a rotational upward trend from "precious metals - industrial metals - energy and chemicals - agricultural products" [4] 3.2 Which stage has the current sector rotation reached? - After the US - Israel raid on Iran on February 28, the crude oil system and shipping index hit the daily limit this week. The subsequent sector start may be advanced. Although emergencies may disrupt the rhythm and intensity of rotation, the underlying logic remains [5] - The strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is fully expected by the market, while oil prices and sectors related to China's domestic economic cycle still have room for rotation and upward expectations [5] 3.3 Which sectors should be focused on in the future? - Historically, precious metals often start first, followed by non - ferrous metals and energy - chemical sectors, and the agricultural product sector is usually lagging and appears in the second half of the cycle [6] - In 2026, the chemical sector is promising. With relevant policies and cost factors, chemical products will have a market of cost transmission and supply optimization, and varieties with less production capacity expansion and strong export expectations will perform better [6] 3.4 Technical Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - There is an adjustment requirement in the morning, and the large - cycle will continue to fluctuate within a range. Tomorrow's early - morning adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [9] 3.4.2 Gold - The gold daily - level red - green line turns bearish. After opening lower, it fluctuated higher and then fell back at the end of the session. It should be treated with a high - short strategy [14] 3.4.3 Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm, with a long - term supply - loosening expectation. The demand side needs time for the terminal demand to start. Technically, with the recent high - spirited commodity sentiment and the disk rising for three consecutive days, a bullish view can be maintained [15][16] 3.4.4 Glass - The daily melting change is small, and the factory inventory accumulates during the seasonal off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. Technically, if it breaks through the previous high, the upward space can be further opened, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [18][19] 3.4.5 Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption. About 60% of the imports come from Iran, and the influence of Iranian supplies on the disk pricing is about 50%. Any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [21] 3.4.6 Pulp - Most pulp and paper equipment has returned to normal production, with individual equipment under maintenance. The domestic port inventory continues to accumulate, putting pressure on prices. The downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support the pulp price [25]

Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - Geopolitical conflicts have led to rising oil and gas prices, with a focus on upstream natural gas resources and coal. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Qatar's production halt significantly impact LNG supply and pricing in Asia and Europe. The TTF price in Europe and JKM price in Asia have increased by 64.3% and 46.5% respectively since March 2026 [2][8] - Coal prices are under short-term pressure due to seasonal demand, but the rise in overseas oil and gas prices is expected to transmit to domestic coal prices. Current coal prices are slightly down but still show a year-on-year increase of 62 yuan per ton [10][11] Transportation - The geopolitical situation has driven oil shipping rates to record highs, with VLCC rates approaching $500,000 per day. The market is experiencing a "super freight rate cycle" due to the ongoing Middle East tensions [12][13] - The express delivery sector is seeing a "de-involution" trend, with government initiatives aimed at promoting fair competition. JD Logistics reported a 22% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by the expansion of real-time delivery services [18][19] Non-Banking Financial - Dongwu Securities plans to acquire control of Donghai Securities, which is expected to alleviate regional competition and enhance capital strength. The merger could elevate Dongwu's ranking among listed brokers from 18th to 14th [28][31] - Yao Cai Securities has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, which is anticipated to enhance liquidity and investor base [32] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Pig prices have fallen below cash costs, indicating a potential reversal in the cycle. The industry is entering a phase of negative cash flow, with prices dropping to 10.23 yuan per kilogram [4][8] Media and Internet - Google has adjusted its app store policies, reducing the in-app purchase service fee to 20% for new users. This change is expected to enhance profitability for gaming companies in overseas markets [4][8] Pharmaceuticals - The rapid growth of balloon-expandable valves is noted, with a recommendation to focus on Bai Ren Medical. The pharmaceutical index has seen a decline, but innovative drugs are rebounding [4][8] Consumer Electronics - The global high-end headphone market is projected to reach $3.67 billion by 2026, with a significant shift towards wireless technology. The domestic brand HiFiMan is highlighted as a key player in this market [5][8] Power Equipment - Major tech companies in the U.S. have committed to self-sufficient power generation, which is expected to benefit the upstream power equipment supply chain. Three core power equipment companies are identified as potential beneficiaries [6][8] Home Appliances - The Open Claw phenomenon is gaining traction, indicating a shift in AI applications. The NAS market is expected to grow as it addresses privacy and data loss concerns, with Greenlink Technology positioned as a leader in this space [4][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including financial futures, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. Geopolitical factors, especially the Middle - East conflict, are the core influencing variables, causing significant price fluctuations in multiple markets. Short - term market volatility is high, and the market is mainly driven by geopolitical news. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Overseas risk aversion may be transmitted to the A - share market, but the impact is diminishing. Domestic policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support, and the market is in short - term shock repair. Unexpected policies may drive the stock index to strengthen [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The policies of the Two Sessions have a neutral impact on the bond market. If the stock market adjustment intensifies, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion. Short - term focus should be on the A - share trend and geopolitical situation [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The US - Iran conflict is the core influencing variable, with factors such as blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and postponed Red Sea resumption expectations being positive. However, issues like conflict sustainability, weak demand, and shipping capacity spill - over risks still exist, and short - term market volatility is extremely high [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict and non - farm data affect interest - rate cut expectations. Supply - side cost increases provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks due to postponed interest - rate cut expectations should be watched [4]. - **Gold & Silver**: The recent weakness of precious metals is due to the Middle - East situation weakening interest - rate cut expectations, leading to higher US dollar and bond yields. Short - term technical corrections after geopolitical risk mitigation should be watched [5]. - **Copper**: Last week, the copper price fell from a high, and this week it will be in a game between high inventory and peak - season expectations. The key window to verify the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the price trend. The US - Israel - Iran conflict affects aluminum supply in the Middle - East, and the price will show different performances under different conflict scenarios [6]. - **Alumina**: The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on the domestic fundamentals, but it follows the rise of aluminum prices. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand - side inventory pressure is large. Short - term metal prices may be suppressed [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The annual nickel ore production estimate has limited impact on the industry chain. The first half of the year has a tight quota. The market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, and the peak - season expectation supports downstream demand [9]. - **Tin**: The Iran situation and non - farm data support the metal. Supply is tight, and demand is starting to resume. High inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the market's concern about demand has increased, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and supply - demand optimization signals [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week [12]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of raw materials, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is stable, and the short - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term price has support due to tight tradable resources, but the upside is limited by high supply, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [14]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Domestic coal mine复产 and increased Mongolian coal customs clearance bring supply pressure. Coke production may increase, but the terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [15]. - **Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is strengthening, but the weak downstream demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [16]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation is the core trading logic. The US - Iran conflict has led to supply shortages, and the market is highly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation and oil - producing countries' inventory changes [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: Chinese exports and the Middle - East conflict affect the Asian gasoline market. The short - term Asian gasoline price difference remains high, and the core drivers are geopolitical situation and Chinese export policies [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has seasonally accumulated. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are the most important [18][19]. - **LPG**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core trading point. The supply disruption and US cold wave have pushed up the price. The length of the blockade determines the price trend [20]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has changed the import expectation, and the MTO profit expansion may drive the methanol price to catch up with the olefin increase [21]. - **Plastic**: The Middle - East situation has led to supply concerns, and the supply - reduction and demand - increase pattern makes the short - term market run strongly [21]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical conflicts support the synthetic rubber price, which in turn boosts natural rubber. The supply - demand利多 and macro利空 coexist, and short - term geopolitical factors dominate the trend [22]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has created a global urea supply gap, and the international price has risen. The domestic market is in a tight balance, and geopolitical risks are the key variables [22]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has affected refinery operations. Downstream demand for restocking and export expectations are positive, and the short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts [23]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, and demand is stable but weak. The inventory situation is better than expected. The medium - to long - term supply is expected to be high [24]. - **Glass**: The current production and sales are weak, and the market is in the recovery stage. High inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase, and demand needs to be verified [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The current hog market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival weak - demand reality. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [27]. - **Oilseeds**: The April China - US negotiation expectation, rising international fertilizer prices, and improved export expectations support the soybean price. The domestic market will follow the US soybean performance in the short - term [28][29]. - **Oils**: The recent strength of the oil market comes from the crude oil and diesel markets. Short - term attention should be paid to the US - Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [29]. - **Cotton**: The current domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical risks put pressure on the upside. The short - term price may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment [30]. - **Sugar**: The market lacks a clear trend - reversal basis, and the core contradiction is low valuation but lack of continuous upward driving force [31]. - **Apple**: The apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamentals and delivery logic. The short - term support is strong [31]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side. The post - Spring Festival downstream sales are average, and the price is under pressure and may maintain a low - level shock [32][33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is entering a negative cash flow phase, with prices dropping below the cash cost of production, leading to accelerated capacity reduction [4][18] - The central government's policy emphasizes comprehensive capacity regulation, aiming to protect farmers' rights while stimulating enterprise innovation [4][18] - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of high capacity and weak consumption, with leading companies likely to gain market share [6][20] - The feed industry is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which aims to increase its dividend payout ratio and expand its global sales [7][8][22] - The pet industry shows positive growth in sales, with leading brands maintaining their market positions [9][23] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector saw a 4.2% increase this week, but is facing negative cash flow as prices fell to 10.23 CNY/kg [4][18] - The pessimistic sentiment is leading to reduced breeding activity, with expectations of significant losses in the second quarter [4][18] - The central government's policy shift aims to balance supply and demand while protecting farmers' interests [4][18] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is recovering, with broiler prices at 3.5 CNY/jin, reflecting a 1.4% increase week-on-week [6][20] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to reduced imports of breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices [6][20] - Focus on companies with improving ROE and integrated supply chains, such as Yi Sheng Co. and Sheng Nong Development [6][20] 3. Feed Industry - The aquatic product market continues to decline post-Spring Festival, with various fish prices showing mixed trends [7][21] - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its long-term growth potential and plans for significant sales increases by 2050 [8][22] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry maintains positive sales growth in early 2026, with leading brands showing strong market positions [9][23] - Recommendations include companies like Zhong Chong and Pei Ti, which are focusing on domestic brand development [12][26] 5. Agricultural Products - Rising oil prices are expected to push agricultural product prices up, with significant increases in soybean meal and rubber prices [13][27] - Companies like COFCO Sugar and Hainan Rubber are recommended due to their potential benefits from rising commodity prices [13][27] 6. Market Performance - The agricultural index increased by 2.12% this week, with the planting sector performing the best at +4.64% [28]