沪指 10 年新高，金银大跌，周期怎么看？20251026 摘要 TikTok 电商增速预计达 30%，极兔前三季度件量增速超 65%，拉美电 商渗透率仅 15%，潜力巨大，中国电商积极布局。嘉友蒙煤市场价维持 高位，非洲业务利润贡献显著，预计三四季度利润逐季改善。 航空公司受益于票价和客座率改善，以及飞机交付受限和替换周期，油 价下降和汇率升值也构成利好。推荐关注华夏航空、东航、南航、国航 等标的。 快递行业估值具吸引力，圆通和申通明年 PE 或为 9 倍和 8~9 倍，反内 卷趋势持续，推荐关注圆通和申通。 几内亚西芒杜铁矿投产将显著改善散货供需关系，运距较长导致 Capesize 船存在缺口，中美贸易谈判等事件性因素也可能催化干散货 行情，推荐招商轮船和海通发展。 六氟磷酸锂价格大幅上涨，接近翻倍，吨毛利显著改善，行业开工率提 升，库存下降，需求拉动明显，电解液价格亦上涨，看好六氟磷酸锂和 电解液盈利修复，推荐新宙邦。 Q&A 近期沪指创十年新高，周期板块的表现如何？ 上证指数直逼 4,000 点，进入牛市状态。交运板块沿着几条主线展开分析。首 先是出海业务，推荐极兔和嘉友两只股票。极兔在东南亚快递市场 ...

Industry News - Some original manufacturers' DRAM and Flash products are currently in a state of suspended quotation, with prices changing daily even if quoted [6] - A breakthrough in the photoresist field has been achieved by a research team from Peking University, which has developed an industrial solution to significantly reduce lithography defects [4] - The logistics industry is experiencing a price increase success rate of 100% due to factors like "anti-involution" and the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival [6] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reported that as of the end of September, the total market value of ETFs in both markets has exceeded 5.6 trillion yuan [6] - JD Logistics announced plans to purchase 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones over the next five years to enhance its logistics supply chain [7] Company News - Chen Hua, the director of the Guizhou Provincial Energy Bureau, has been appointed as the chairman of Kweichow Moutai Group, following the departure of Zhang Deqin [8] - WuXi AppTec reported a net profit of 12.076 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 84.84%, and plans to sell 100% equity in two subsidiaries for 2.8 billion yuan [8] - Cambridge Technology achieved a revenue of 3.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 21.57%, with a net profit of 259 million yuan, up 70.88% [9] - Zhenhai Magnetic Materials reported a net profit growth of 189.72% in the third quarter, primarily due to rising rare earth prices [10] - Dongfang Caifu announced a total revenue of 4.733 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 100.65%, with a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan, up 77.74% [11]

Group 1 - The latest report on state-owned assets reveals that by the end of 2024, the total assets of state-owned enterprises (excluding financial enterprises) will reach 401.7 trillion yuan, with state capital equity at 109.4 trillion yuan [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [6] - The Guangdong provincial government has issued measures to support the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy, including financial services and encouraging qualified enterprises to go public [10] Group 2 - In the semiconductor industry, a significant breakthrough has been achieved in photoresist technology, which is crucial for the continuous miniaturization of integrated circuit chips [7] - The third quarter financial results of various companies show significant growth, with Dongfang Fortune reporting a 51% increase in net profit, and Guiding Compass achieving a 205% increase in net profit [16][17] - Goldwind Technology reported a 171% increase in net profit for the third quarter, with total orders on hand increasing by 18.48% year-on-year [19] Group 3 - The stock of Tongwei Co. reported a net loss of 5.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters, although the loss in the third quarter was significantly reduced due to price recovery in the photovoltaic industry [22] - The third quarter net profit of Ecovacs increased by 7161%, driven by growth in the home service robot business [23] - The third quarter net profit of Guoxuan High-Tech surged by 1434%, largely due to the significant change in fair value of its early holdings in Chery Automobile [21]

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" price adjustment has significantly benefited express delivery companies, with a 100% success rate in price increases at various outlets, contributing to higher profits during the Double Eleven shopping festival [1][6] - The overall volume of express deliveries has increased, with a notable rise in the value of goods being shipped, indicating a shift towards higher-quality consumption [6][10] Group 1: Market Trends - This year's Double Eleven shopping festival has a longer duration, with major platforms like JD.com and Douyin starting promotions early, leading to a more gradual increase in delivery volumes [1][2] - The first wave of deliveries during Double Eleven saw a year-on-year increase of 10-20% in volume, with some companies reporting a doubling of daily volumes compared to regular days [2][10] Group 2: Product Categories - The types of goods shipped during the first wave of Double Eleven include a significant proportion of beauty products, daily necessities, and fast-moving consumer goods, with brand clients showing notable growth [4][5] Group 3: Service Quality and Innovations - Companies are enhancing service quality through the implementation of "cloud warehouses," which allow for more efficient logistics and faster delivery times, addressing the diverse shopping behaviors of consumers [7][9] - The use of pre-packaging and advanced communication with clients has enabled companies to streamline operations and reduce reliance on temporary labor during peak periods [7][10] Group 4: Capacity Expansion and Cost Optimization - Express delivery companies are expanding their capacities and upgrading equipment to meet increasing demand, with some reporting an 80% increase in daily throughput after recent upgrades [10][11] - The optimization of single-package operating costs is expected to benefit outlets, allowing them to attract more clients and increase delivery volumes [11][13] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competition among express delivery companies is shifting from a focus on volume to a focus on value, emphasizing stability, intelligence, service experience, and network health [13] - Recent data indicates that the average price per package has risen above 2 yuan, with notable year-on-year increases, particularly for Shentong Express [13]

人民日报记者 韩春瑶 李亚楠 "必须有效降低全社会物流成本，增强产业核心竞争力，提高经济运行效率。" ——2024年2月23日，习近平总书记在二十届中央财经委员会第四次会议上强调 乡村全面振兴，离不开物流支撑。位置偏远、人口密度低的部分农村地区，长期以来是物流的难点 堵点。 2019年9月，习近平总书记在河南考察时指出："要积极发展农村电子商务和快递业务，拓宽农产品 销售渠道，增加农民收入。" "叮！"吃过午饭，明昆格尔村村民邢保保收到短信，前几天网购的纸巾到了，"速度挺快，关键还 包邮！" 出门不到一公里，便是村里的快递点，货架上摆满了包裹。工作人员介绍："包裹通过邮快合作统 一送至快递点。寄快递时，村民把包裹送到这里，再由快递员统一取走。" 既要帮农民卖得出、卖得好，又要让农民买得到、买得省。快递包邮区不断扩展，便利了群众生产 生活，也成为反映物流降本增效的重要窗口。 农村寄递物流网络，在广袤乡村铺展延伸。以新疆为例，截至2024年底，新疆已有邮政普遍服务营 业网点1537处，村级寄递物流综合服务站（村邮站）7920处，建制村快递服务基本实现全覆盖。 为实现快递包邮，新疆维吾尔自治区邮政管理局促成邮政快递 ...

"必须有效降低全社会物流成本，增强产业核心竞争力，提高经济运行效率。" 出门不到一公里，便是村里的快递点，货架上摆满了包裹。工作人员介绍："包裹通过邮快合作统一送 至快递点。寄快递时，村民把包裹送到这里，再由快递员统一取走。" 既要帮农民卖得出、卖得好，又要让农民买得到、买得省。快递包邮区不断扩展，便利了群众生产生 活，也成为反映物流降本增效的重要窗口。 农村寄递物流网络，在广袤乡村铺展延伸。以新疆为例，截至2024年底，新疆已有邮政普遍服务营业网 点1537处，村级寄递物流综合服务站（村邮站）7920处，建制村快递服务基本实现全覆盖。 为实现快递包邮，新疆维吾尔自治区邮政管理局促成邮政快递企业与电商平台合作，在陕西西安、浙江 杭州等地设立中转集运仓，推出全国快件先发集运仓再集中统一发新疆的寄递新模式，发挥规模效应， 明显降低运费成本。"对时效性要求较高的生鲜产品也能包邮了。"邢保保说。 ——2024年2月23日，习近平总书记在二十届中央财经委员会第四次会议上强调 乡村全面振兴，离不开物流支撑。位置偏远、人口密度低的部分农村地区，长期以来是物流的难点堵 点。 2019年9月，习近平总书记在河南考察时指出："要 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in companies such as China Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, highlighting a historical opportunity for the shipping sector due to a reversal of negative factors [23]. Core Views - The transportation industry index increased by 0.72%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.52 percentage points, with the shipping sector showing the smallest decline at -1.28% [4][11]. - The report emphasizes that the shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as negative influences such as policies, exchange rates, and ship prices have shifted to positive impacts [23]. - The VLCC freight rates have stabilized around $80,000 per day, with potential upward adjustments in rental rates expected due to market dynamics [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The transportation index rose by 0.72%, while the shipping sector saw a decline of -1.28% [4][11]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China increased by 3.83%, and the Shanghai export container freight index rose by 7.11% [4]. 2. Sub-industry Insights - The report highlights that the shipping sector is at a historical low in terms of market value orders, with a potential recovery to historical averages of 1-3 times [23]. - The report notes that the oil tanker market is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions and sanctions, which may affect freight rates [24]. 3. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a TTM dividend yield of 8.09% and Zhonggu Logistics with a yield of 10.88% [21][22]. 4. Market Trends - The report indicates that the shipping market is experiencing a shift with freight rates stabilizing and potential increases in rental rates, driven by supply and demand dynamics [23][24]. - The report also mentions that the dry bulk market is seeing fluctuations due to seasonal demand and geopolitical factors affecting trade [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping sector, highlighting a shift from expectation-driven to reality-driven stock price movements, with sufficient safety margins around current valuations [5][6]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as three negative factors (policy, exchange rates, and ship prices) have reversed to positively impact the market. The Clarksons second-hand ship price index is steadily breaking through 2024 highs, indicating an approaching inflection point for new ship prices [5][6]. - The report recommends specific companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy, while also suggesting to monitor Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant upward revisions in global oil shipping profitability forecasts and reset costs, with current charter rates around $50,000 per day expected to rise [5][6]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Overview - VLCC rates stabilized at high levels around $80,000 per day, despite an 8% week-on-week decline to $78,862 per day. The overall market remains calm, with charterers attempting to suppress rates through private deals [5][6]. - The report notes a 5% week-on-week decline in Suezmax rates to $65,724 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 14% to $56,567 per day, indicating mixed market conditions [5][6]. Air Transportation - The report highlights unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, with an aging global fleet expected to constrain supply over the next 5-10 years. This situation is anticipated to lead to significant improvements in airline profitability as demand for international flights increases [5][6]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure in certain regions, and potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions [5][6]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with national railway freight reaching 80.32 million tons, a 2.33% week-on-week increase, and highway truck traffic increasing by 24.72% [5][6]. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a dividend yield of 8.09% and Zhonggu Logistics at 10.88%, indicating strong potential for income generation [5][6].

跨越快递查询的服务质量也让我印象深刻。跨越速运的客服团队非常专业和负责，当我们在查询过程中遇到问题时， 他们能够及时给予帮助和解决方案。有一次，我们在查询一个快递单号时，系统提示查询不到信息。我们联系了客 服，客服人员迅速帮我们核实了单号，并排查了系统故障，最终成功查询到了快递信息。 另外，跨越速运的科技实力在跨越快递查询上也得到了充分体现。他们运用了先进的区块链技术，实现了快递信息的 不可篡改和可追溯性。每一个快递包裹的运输信息都被记录在区块链上，我们可以随时查询和验证。这不仅提高了快 递信息的可信度，也增强了我们对物流过程的监管能力。 跨越快递查询为我们制造业企业的物流管理提供了有力的支持。它的稳定性、服务质量和科技实力，让我们的物流更 加畅通。我相信，在未来的合作中，跨越速运将继续为我们提供优质的服务，助力我们的企业发展。 我是一家制造业企业的物流主管，在日常工作中，物流信息的准确掌握对于我们的生产和销售至关重要。直到我们开 始使用跨越快递查询，情况有了明显的改善。 跨越快递查询的稳定性是我非常看重的一点。无论何时，我们都能顺利登录跨越速运的查询系统，查询到快递的最新 信息。在"货运高峰"时期，物流信息 ...

Core Insights - The postal industry has seen a significant increase in delivery volume, reaching 158.26 billion items from January to September, a year-on-year growth of 15.0%, indicating a robust recovery in the consumer market [1] - The total electricity consumption in the first three quarters reached 77,675 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, reflecting trends in industrial structure upgrades [2] - The number of applications for the vehicle trade-in subsidy has surpassed 10 million, showcasing the effectiveness of targeted policies in stimulating consumer demand [2] Group 1: Postal Industry - The express delivery business volume reached 145.08 billion items in the first nine months, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2%, and revenue exceeded 1 trillion yuan, totaling 1,085.74 billion yuan, a growth of 8.9% [1] - The growth in delivery volume is attributed to the integration of various sectors, including agriculture and e-commerce, enhancing the role of the express industry as a driver of consumer activity [1][3] Group 2: Electricity Consumption - The stable growth in electricity consumption reflects the rapid development of new infrastructure, such as electric vehicles and 5G, with significant increases in electricity usage in information transmission and retail sectors, at 18.3% and 11.7% respectively [2] - The electricity consumption in the internet and related services sector grew by 33.8%, while the charging services for electric vehicles saw a remarkable increase of 49.6%, indicating a shift towards digitalization and smart production [2] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The vehicle trade-in subsidy policy has effectively reduced the cost for residents to replace old vehicles, driving demand towards new energy and smart connected vehicles, which has led to an increase in automobile sales [2] - The rise in subsidy applications signifies a positive cycle of consumer upgrading, industrial transformation, and market expansion [2][3]