各位老铁好！我是帮主郑重，20年财经老炮儿，专注中长线投资。今儿咱们聊聊人民币汇率这事儿——就在刚刚，人民币兑美元中间价一口气涨破7.2，离 岸汇率更是一度摸到7.18，这可是近三个月来最猛的一次升值。这波行情背后暗藏三大投资机会，咱们得掰开揉碎了看。 先说说这波升值的导火索。昨天中美发布的《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》可是关键——双方互降关税到10%，还建立了定期磋商机制。这就好比两家打架的 邻居突然坐下来喝茶，市场信心一下子就起来了。中国银河宏观团队直接表态，人民币汇率中枢要从7.3移到7.2，高盛更是放话12个月内要到7:1。这可不是 空穴来风，昨天声明发布后，A、H股直接涨回4月初水平，北向资金单日净流入超百亿，这就是真金白银的投票。 中长线来看，人民币升值的底层逻辑更值得关注。中美贸易谈判的实质性进展，让全球资本看到中国经济的韧性。更关键的是，中国财政政策还有加码空 间，如果下半年专项债发行超预期，或者消费刺激政策出台，汇率中枢上移到7.1完全有可能。这就好比盖房子，贸易谈判是打地基，财政政策是添砖加 瓦，地基稳了房子才能盖得高。 最后给大伙提个醒，汇率波动从来不是单边行情。现在市场预期很乐观，但美联储 ...

纸浆周报 2025年05月第2周 大宗商品研究所 潘盛杰 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 木片下跌成纸累库，关注短期超跌机会 ◼ 目前纸浆的基本面不太乐观。从上游来看，木片成本出现下滑，像CME木材期货结算价格下跌，俄罗斯木制品商业信心指数下降，针叶木片进口量增加，木片 木粒进口价值指数也下滑。下游方面，成纸库存不断积压，3月国内造纸业产成品存货环比增加，达到764.5亿元，同比上升4.5%，并且已经连续12个月呈逐月 增加态势；同时，3月美国纸品批发商库销比环比上升至1.06%，同比增加5.8%，连续10个月呈逐月上升态势，这些情况都对浆价产生了下行压力。 ◼ 不过，也可以从其他角度来分析浆价短期内是否会触底。 ◼ 阔叶浆仍有望相对企稳，支撑纸浆整体估值回升。 GALAXYFUTURES 1 ➢ 若不考虑基本面因素，只看价格周期规律，从1990年至今的7年周期里的第1年（1990年、1997年、2004年、2011年、2018年和2025年），浆价都会从同比 上涨转为同比下跌，且跌幅一般不会超过-23%。现在浆价同比下跌-19%，从统计角度来看，已经接近低估值水平，可能存在超跌的情况。 ➢ 从国际油价角 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | | 2025/04/28 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/04/29 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/04/30 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/06 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245 ...

Group 1 - The 137th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) showcased a record number of participants, with Jiangsu exhibiting 3,348 companies and a total of 7,020 booths [1] - The Covos Robotics booth featured the GOAT A3000 LIDAR lawn mower, which incorporates a multi-technology navigation system, including satellite positioning and LiDAR, enhancing its performance in various grass types [1] - Suzhou Customs organized experts to provide policy consultations and support for local enterprises, aiming to expand their international networks and promote regional cooperation [2] Group 2 - Suzhou Pulutong Textile Technology Co., Ltd. participated for the first time, highlighting its eco-friendly and high-quality yarn products that have gained popularity among foreign clients [2] - Jiangsu Changjiang Paper Industry Co., Ltd. reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in exports, amounting to 69.549 million yuan in the first quarter, supported by a strong supply chain and a dedicated R&D team [2][3] - Nanjing Customs implemented a "pre-declaration single consumption" policy to help companies reduce capital occupation and improve customs efficiency, enhancing their operational confidence [3]

2025.05. 06 本文字数：2836，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 封图 | 新华社 特朗普政府的关税政策给美国大小企业带来了棘手的业务危机。 从对冲基金巨头阿克曼（Bill Ackman）、桥水基金创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio），到佛罗里达州的造 纸公司和纽约市的一家酒水零售商，美国企业家不得不使用诉讼、公开喊话以及私下游说等一切途径 劝阻特朗普收回"对等关税"。 目前，全美范围内至少有七起案件以《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）为依据挑战特朗普的关税措 施，旨在推翻特朗普的关税政策。 牛津经济研究院美国副经济学家兹维默（Grace Zwemmer）对第一财经记者表示，4月美国消费者信 心指数已降至2020年5月以来的最低水平，这主要源于对关税可能导致未来价格上涨的担忧。后续更 多负面影响需要一段时间才能显现，而供应链中断的不确定性将延长通胀高企的周期。 美关税政策遭遇多起诉讼 自特朗普政府提出所谓"对等关税"政策一个月以来，一场跨州、跨行业的法律合围正在形成。从州政 府到原住民部落，从造纸企业到桌游制造商，美国企业和律师开始挑战总统随意设定关税的权力合法 性。 在州层面，4月1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's tariff policy has led to significant business crises for American companies, prompting various stakeholders to challenge the legality of these tariffs through lawsuits and lobbying efforts [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Challenges - At least seven lawsuits have been filed across the U.S. challenging Trump's tariff measures under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), aiming to overturn the tariffs [1][3]. - California was the first state to file a lawsuit against the tariffs, claiming they severely harm the state's economy, followed by a coalition of 12 states alleging that the tariffs disrupt constitutional order and create economic chaos [3][4]. - Various businesses, including a Florida paper company and a Native American tribe, have also filed lawsuits, citing increased costs and violations of treaty rights due to the tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Business Reactions - Executives from major companies, including Home Depot and German automakers, have engaged directly with the Trump administration to seek tariff exemptions, highlighting the tariffs' potential to disrupt supply chains and inflate prices [5][7]. - Influential business figures, such as Harold Hamm, have leveraged their connections to persuade Trump to reconsider certain tariffs, particularly those affecting energy imports from Canada [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Experts argue that the tariffs are unlikely to achieve their intended goal of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., as established global supply chains cannot be easily reestablished domestically [10][11]. - The tariffs are expected to increase production costs in the U.S., potentially harming the international competitiveness of American manufacturing [10][11]. - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating that the tariffs may lead to a slowdown in consumer demand and economic growth [1][11].

"这哪是造纸机，分明是装了加速器的打印机！"近日，在东营广饶的华泰集团8＃纸机控制室内，在公 司工作了20余年的车间主任任新峰盯着大屏上跳动的数字发出感叹。他身后的纸机正以近2000米/分钟 的速度吞吐着雪白的纸卷，每60秒抄造出的纸张规模有3个足球场大小。而指挥这场"纸业F1方程 式"的，是刚上线运营的造纸"产业大脑"。 "此前，造纸厂最头疼的事就是数据像散落的拼图、智能设备各干各的活。"华泰集团信息中心主任黄鹏 说，过去生产统计员需要抱着纸质单据满厂跑，生产系统和管理系统就像两个说着不同方言的人，产业 链信息也经常"断片"。 加快转型升级、融入数字经济为经营提质增效，成为当地企业的共识。去年7月，在东营数字经济攻坚 突破、制造业数字化转型等政策措施推动下，华泰集团正式启动造纸"产业大脑"项目建设。经过近10个 月的攻坚，该项目于日前顺利上线运营。 "以前巡检要带手电筒、记录本，现在利用AR数字车间的数字孪生系统，每台设备的运行数据都能看得 清清楚楚。"黄鹏介绍，将生产、管理数据以AR标签嵌入现场视频，实现"生产管理一张图"。"过去调 参数主要靠老师傅的经验，现在用的都是智能制造大模型推算出来的最优值。" ...

Group 1 - Yibin Paper's new product, cream paper, aims to capture the high-end paper market, marking a significant step for the company [1] - The cream paper market in China is projected to reach 1.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 114%, making it one of the fastest-growing segments [1] - The cost structure of cream paper includes 25% from edible additives, indicating a specialized supply chain for high-end products [1] Group 2 - The bamboo industry in Sichuan is expected to see a total output value exceeding 200 billion yuan by 2035, with a focus on high-end bamboo pulp paper products like cream paper [1] - Local paper companies are collaborating to improve pollution treatment, aiming to increase the concentration of treated pollutants from 50% to 70%, facilitating recycling and energy recovery [2] - Improvements in transportation and machinery are unlocking the production potential of bamboo pulp, suggesting a positive outlook for the bamboo pulp paper industry in Sichuan [2]

Economic Development - Qing Shen County achieved a GDP of 12.16 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.2% [2] - Investment in 33 key projects reached 9.5 billion yuan, with a total fixed asset investment growth of 10.9% [2] Bamboo Industry - Qing Shen County has developed a complete bamboo industry chain, employing nearly 20,000 people [3] - The "China International Bamboo Industry Trade Fair" attracted over 150,000 attendees in 2024, generating a transaction volume exceeding 800 million yuan [3] - Qing Shen bamboo weaving products can be valued at over 10,000 yuan, significantly higher than the raw bamboo price of a few hundred yuan [3] New Materials - Sichuan Huanlong New Materials Co., Ltd. produced the first bamboo fiber unbleached paper in China, using over 4 million tons of bamboo and achieving sales exceeding 12 billion yuan [4] - The company has helped farmers increase their income by nearly 2.5 billion yuan [4] - The first phase of the Banbu Health Bamboo Industrial Park has an annual output value exceeding 2.5 billion yuan, with the second phase expected to reach 10 billion yuan [4] Machinery Manufacturing - Qing Shen County has cultivated two local listed companies and 14 national high-tech enterprises in the machinery manufacturing sector [5] - Sichuan Deen Precision Technology Co., Ltd. has transformed from a small workshop to a publicly listed company, covering over 40 countries with its products [5] - The company has achieved a significant increase in productivity through the integration of industrial IoT and big data applications [5] Tourism Development - Qing Shen County received over 250,000 visitors during the firefly viewing season, with hotel occupancy rates exceeding 95% [7] - The county leverages its cultural heritage, including the Su Dongpo cultural sites and traditional villages, to enhance tourism [7] - The integration of tourism with cultural and environmental development has proven to be an effective growth strategy for the county [7]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu's foreign trade exports reached 904.99 billion yuan in the first quarter, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, reflecting the province's resilience amid complex international trade conditions [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Jiangsu's foreign trade growth of 9.6% in the first quarter is notable against the backdrop of rising trade protectionism and de-globalization [1] - The province's performance is indicative of China's foreign trade transformation and upgrading, supported by policy tools and enterprise innovation [1] Group 2: Policy Support - In 2024, China has optimized foreign trade foreign exchange processes and introduced six policy measures to facilitate trade, including simplifying customs procedures for special regulatory areas [2] - Jiangsu's imports and exports to ASEAN increased by 22.3% year-on-year, driven by the benefits of free trade agreements [2] Group 3: Innovation and Competitiveness - Jiangsu enterprises have demonstrated remarkable innovation capabilities, with examples such as Moteng Sports capturing niche markets and Changzhou Guangyang Motor enhancing electric vehicles with smart systems [3] - Traditional industries are adapting by shortening delivery cycles to under one week, exemplifying a shift from price competition to value-driven strategies [3] Group 4: Dual Circulation Strategy - The implementation of the dual circulation strategy is evident in practices like the mixed loading of domestic and foreign trade containers, which has reduced logistics costs by over 10% [4] - Innovations such as the "same package, same vehicle" model by Jinling Customs have further lowered transaction costs, enhancing the resilience of the supply chain [4]