Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 136,111 lots, up 1,772 lots; the position of the main contract was 460,281 lots, down 46,421 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 4,360 yuan/ton, up 6,300 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 26,898 lots/ton, up 928 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 7,480 yuan/ton, down 3,420 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 18,500 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2]. - **Downstream and Application Situation**: The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 60%, down 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 47.48%, up 0.74 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the monthly export volume was 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 2.315 million units, up 1.174 million units [2]. - **Option Situation**: The total call position was 65,420 contracts, up 4,295 contracts; the total put position was 94,168 contracts, up 6,167 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions was 143.94%, down 0.0252 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.65%, up 0.0929 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce released a briefing on the progress of consultations in the China - EU electric vehicle case. The China - EU agreed to provide general guidance on price commitments to Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU. It is expected that from 2026 to 2028, China's electric vehicle exports to the EU will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 20% [2]. - Xici Technology's sales revenue in the lithium - ion battery industry accounts for more than half. The lithium - ion battery industry shows signs of recovery, mainly driven by the growth of power battery and energy storage demand [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve supporting systems, issue management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, and revise the guidance catalog for industrial structure adjustment [2]. - In December 2025, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 18,341 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.68%. Exports to China decreased, while exports to South Korea and Japan increased [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: As lithium carbonate prices rise, lithium ore prices increase. There may be hedging space, and domestic supply is slightly increasing. Downstream battery cathode material manufacturers have low acceptance of high - priced lithium and mainly adopt a rigid - demand procurement strategy, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - **Options**: The put - call ratio of option positions is 143.94%, down 0.0252% month - on - month, indicating a bearish sentiment in the option market, and the implied volatility slightly increases [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging [2].

一则出口退税的消息将碳酸锂价格推上高潮，期货合约全面涨停，近期以势不可挡的趋势，走出了加速通道，1月份短短7个交易日涨幅已高达40%，锂电板 块迎来狂欢。 智通财经APP了解到，近日财政部、税务总局近日发布的公告，自2026年4月1日起至12月31日，电池产品增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%，2027年1月1日 起彻底取消。受该消息提振，碳酸锂期货合约全面涨停，其中主力合约2605一字涨停，次日主力合约再次涨停，而2026年开年以来涨幅已达40%。港A股锂 电板块跟随大涨，AH龙头赣锋锂业（01772）领涨，港股两日涨幅近10%。 供需仍偏紧，有利润空间下游或博弈 从供给端来看，目前供需基本达成平衡，2025年12月份需求量总需求量已超过总供给量，1月份预期偏紧状态。而库存方面，去年下半年开始就持续性去 库，加上期间停产及检修，库存基本见底，这也导致了政策驱动下的抢货潮。从趋势上看，政策依旧是后期产能供给最核心的影响要素。 碳酸锂"产能"未来有缩紧的预期，主要为2026年"反内卷"仍为行业主题，在政策上综合整治"内卷式"竞争，对新增产能进行严控。在今年1月份，政府部门 印发《关于固体废物综合治理行动计划的通知 ...

"如果该调查样本真的覆盖了锂盐厂、材料厂、电芯厂、期现商等所有类型的企业，不可能会出现没有 企业选择'18万元/吨以下'的情况。"一家专注服务产业的碳酸锂贸易商负责人告诉记者，问卷调查的取 样很重要，参与调研的样本锂盐厂、材料厂、电芯厂、期现商等类型的企业各多少家也很重要。同时， 价格的取样区间设计也要合理。目前来看，这个调查结果的参考性不够全面。 中信建投（601066）期货分析师张维鑫也认为，对于当前的碳酸锂市场来说，这类调研本身没有太大的 实际意义，反而容易误导市场各方对碳酸锂当前实际情况的看法。"在当前市场环境下，碳酸锂价格的 连续上涨，难免会加剧市场的博弈心理。在此情况下去做一个情绪调研，大家给的观点自然是更容易往 上涨趋势看。"张维鑫解释称，这个样本更多是一个情绪调研，不具备太多参考意义，建议大家理性看 待。 "当前，各类渠道关于产业链相关调研信息及观点呈现多元化特征，建议投资者保持理性客观的研判态 度。中信期货分析师王美丹也认为，对于此类调研信息，投资者应审慎评估相关信息的真实性与全面 性，避免因片面解读市场消息，而产生非理性交易行为。 从基本面来看，张维鑫认为，当前碳酸锂市场只是处于紧平衡的状 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The 2026 Lithium Battery Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit aims to address the supply-demand dynamics in the lithium battery sector, focusing on the critical materials needed for battery production and the expected supply shortages [5]. Group 2: Key Topics of Discussion - The conference will feature three main topics: 1. In-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand [5]. 2. Announcement of the "Top Ten Lithium Battery Material Brands of 2025," evaluated based on shipment volume, market share, and customer reputation [6]. 3. B2B procurement matchmaking to connect top battery manufacturers and material suppliers, enhancing resource matching and reducing procurement costs [7]. Group 3: Proposed Discussion Topics - Proposed topics for the main forum include: - Outlook on lithium ore resource supply for 2026 [9]. - Market environment discussions on lithium carbonate operations [9]. - Research and application of high-energy density power battery technology [9]. - Additional topics will cover trends in the global new energy vehicle market and the impact of policies on the lithium market [10][11]. Group 4: Participation and Costs - The participation fee for the conference is set at 2800 yuan per person, with a limited-time free attendance option available for the first 200 registrants [17].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations on January 13, 2026, with significant volatility in the ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangxi Futures Exchange broke through 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 9%, reaching a new high since October 2023 [1] - Lithium demand is expected to maintain a high growth trend, driven by electric vehicle subsidies and the acceleration of electrification in the automotive industry, as well as improvements in the economic viability of independent energy storage projects [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) is the largest ETF fund tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering multiple sectors including batteries and photovoltaics [2] - The fund has a high elasticity with a maximum increase of 20cm and the lowest fee rate, with a total management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2] - As of December 30, 2025, the fund's scale reached 676 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 70.75 million yuan over the past month [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the lithium battery industry and the new energy vehicle market in China, highlighting trends, policy changes, and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points on Lithium Battery Industry - **Strong Production Data**: Despite the off-season, production data remains robust, indicating strong demand bolstered by export tax rebate policies, particularly benefiting separator and lithium-containing material investments [1][3]. - **Anti-Dumping Meeting Insights**: The recent anti-dumping meeting emphasized capacity, pricing, intellectual property, and quality supervision. It aims to strengthen market price enforcement and cost monitoring, ensuring healthy industry development [4]. - **Export Tax Policy Changes**: Starting April 1, 2026, certain lithium battery materials will see export tax rebates canceled, while lithium batteries will have a one-year buffer period. This policy is expected to enhance the bargaining power and technical strength of Chinese companies [5]. - **Material Price Increases**: Recent price hikes for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate, and electrolytes have been confirmed, with increases of approximately 1,000-2,000 yuan for large customers and even higher for smaller ones, positively impacting industry chain profits [6][12]. - **Positive Outlook for 2026**: The lithium materials sector is expected to perform well, with continuous price increases for separators and a surge in equipment orders from leading companies [7][8]. Solid-State Battery Developments - **Initial Mass Production**: The solid-state battery sector is entering its initial mass production phase in 2026, with several companies beginning vehicle testing and making significant progress in lithium sulfide and auxiliary materials [9]. New Energy Vehicle Market Insights - **2025 Performance**: In 2025, China's new energy vehicle retail sales reached 12.809 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales grew over 25% [10]. - **2026 Projections**: The market is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, driven by policy support, trade-in programs, and increased penetration of commercial vehicles [2][10]. Additional Industry Developments - **Storage Systems Growth**: The domestic storage system bidding volume reached approximately 9.3 GWh in December 2025, reflecting a strong demand and significant year-on-year growth [13][14]. - **Sodium-Ion Battery Advancements**: CATL plans to promote sodium-ion batteries across various applications, with mass production of materials expected this year, alongside improvements in charging and swapping infrastructure [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the lithium battery and new energy vehicle sectors, highlighting the anticipated growth and ongoing changes in policies and market dynamics.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy will have a significant impact on the lithium - ion battery industry, leading to reshaping of the industry structure. For lithium carbonate, it may support price increases in the short term but is more bearish in the medium - to - long term [2] - Current prices are greatly affected by news, with over - speculation. Inventory depletion has slowed down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices, so short - term sharp increases may lead to a correction risk [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 12, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened and closed at 156,060 yuan/ton, with a 9.00% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 68,491 lots, and the open interest was 506,702 lots, down from 510,874 lots the previous day. The current basis is - 4,060 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 2,5970 lots, a change of 610 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 148,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of 12,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 145,000 - 152,000 yuan/ton, also a 12,000 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,085 dollars/ton, a change of 135 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - As of January 8, 2026, the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and will be cancelled starting from January 1, 2027 [2] - The spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, up 715 tons; downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, down 2,458 tons; other inventories are 52,940 tons, up 2,080 tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging on rallies [3] - Options: None [3] - Inter - delivery spread: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 点 评 碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 碳酸锂日报 三、图表分析 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨停至 156060 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 12000 元/吨 至 152000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 12000 元/吨至 148500 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 11000 元/吨至 143000 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 610 吨至 25970 吨。 2. 供给端，周度产量环比增加 115 吨至 22535 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 35 吨至 13959 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 20 吨至 2956 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 40 吨至 3185 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 20 吨至 2435 吨。2026 年 1 月碳酸锂产量预计环比下降 1.2%至 97970 吨。需求端，2026 年 1 月三元材料产 量预计环比下降 5%至 78180 吨；磷酸铁锂产量预计环比下降 10%至 363400 吨；2026 年 1 月三元动 力电池 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to strong fundamental expectations and multiple positive market news, with the main contract LC2605 rising by 9% to 156,300 yuan/ton [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, is expected to create a short-term "export rush," supporting demand and alleviating concerns about seasonal demand weakness [2]. - The cumulative export volume of power and other batteries from January to November 2025 reached 260.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, indicating that the anticipated "export rush" will have a marginal positive impact on overall lithium carbonate demand [2]. Policy Impact - The reduction and eventual cancellation of the export tax rebate for lithium batteries is seen as a move to guide the industry away from pure scale expansion and to alleviate homogenization competition pressures [4]. - The policy aims to encourage companies to enhance product technology and value, promoting a healthier and more sustainable industry structure [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Current market conditions suggest a gradual accumulation of lithium carbonate inventory, with signs of weakening fundamentals as of early January 2026 [4]. - The market is characterized by strong supply and demand dynamics, with ongoing negotiations between upstream and downstream players affecting price volatility [4]. Future Projections - There is an expectation of continued "export rush" demand from battery manufacturers until the cancellation of the tax rebate in 2027, potentially leading to concentrated short-term demand for lithium carbonate [5]. - However, a significant decline in demand for new energy batteries is anticipated at the beginning of 2026, necessitating production adjustments by battery manufacturers [5]. - The market may face dual impacts from upstream maintenance and traditional seasonal demand downturns, suggesting potential volatility in supply and demand [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to cancel export VAT rebates for photovoltaic and battery products is seen as a significant measure in the "anti-involution" actions within the new energy sectors, aimed at addressing the industry's profitability issues and promoting higher value-added products [5][6][8]. Industry Overview - The new energy photovoltaic and lithium battery industries have been facing challenges due to mismatched supply and demand and intense price competition, leading to weak profitability across the sector [3]. - Since 2025, there have been ongoing calls within the lithium battery sector to resist vicious competition, control capacity growth, and enhance technological innovation [3]. Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled, and the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, after which it will be completely eliminated [1][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other regulatory bodies have proposed 20 measures to regulate industry competition, including tightening approvals for low-capacity projects and establishing a cost-based price monitoring mechanism [4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the stock performance of key players in the lithium battery sector showed significant volatility, with leading companies like CATL experiencing declines, while some photovoltaic companies saw substantial gains [1]. - The cancellation of export VAT rebates is expected to lead to an increase in the cost and price of Chinese photovoltaic components in overseas markets, which may help clear out low-end production capacity [8]. Price Trends - The prices of lithium carbonate futures have surged to over 160,000 yuan per ton, compared to 60,000 yuan per ton in June 2025, indicating a significant recovery in the battery materials market [6]. - The demand for upstream materials remains strong, with companies reporting full production capacity and no immediate adjustments in order volumes from downstream clients [7]. Future Outlook - The upcoming policy changes are anticipated to drive a surge in orders for photovoltaic components before the new VAT regulations take effect, although this demand may be temporary [7]. - Long-term, the cancellation of export VAT rebates is expected to facilitate industry consolidation and price normalization, benefiting the overall market structure [8].